Latest news with #NODX
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Singapore NODX surges 13% y-o-y in June, economists mixed on forecasts
Some analysts see that frontloading could dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) 13% y-o-y climb in the month of June on the back of continued frontloading ahead of US President Donald Trump's July 8 deadline has inspired largely neutral outlooks from economists. Economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee Shun Rong at Maybank Securities (Maybank) have upgraded their 2025 NODX forecast to 4%, which they note implies a slower growth of 2.8% in the second half. At the same time, the pair are reiterating their 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.2%. Chua and Lee had previously upgraded their GDP forecast to 2.4%, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter. RHB Bank Singapore's (RHB) Barnabas Gan and Laalitha Raveenthar have also upgraded their NODX forecast for the full year to 2.0% from an initial 0.0%. At the same time, they retain their 2025 GDP forecast at 2.0% Fellow economist from UOB Global Economics and Market Research (UOB) Jester Koh is keeping his 2025 NODX forecast of 1.0% to 3.0% unchanged, while Oxford Economics' Sheana Yue has kept her 2025 GDP projection of 2.0% growth unchanged. The 13.3% surge included a $1.3 billion contribution from gold, without which NODX growth would have come in at 3.4% y-o-y. Non-oil re-export (NORX) growth meanwhile grew 18.5% y-o-y. Chua and Lee note that Singapore's exports of semiconductors, specialised machinery and other electronic components have benefited from broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand and exemptions from reciprocal tariffs. Around 61% of Singapore's exports to the US, by their estimates, are currently exempted from reciprocal tariffs, including semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals and energy. Electronics NODX accelerated, growing 8% y-o-y on the back of double-digit expansions in integrated circuits (IC), personal computers (PC) and bare printed circuit boards (PCB). By market, demand climbed the most in Japan at 76.6%, Hong Kong at 45.9%, Indonesia at 29.8% and South Korea at 27.2%. Meanwhile, electronics NORX grew by 26.2% y-o-y in June, owing to PCs, ICs and telecommunications equipment. Aggregate NORX rose by 18.5% y-o-y, after a 16.2% increase in the preceding month, led by Taiwan at 96%, the US at 64.3% and Hong Kong at 26.7%. Growth in non-electronics exports climbed to 14.5% y-o-y, driven by non-monetary gold which leapt 211.9% y-o-y, specialised machinery at 31.4% y-o-y and lastly, other specialty chemicals at 20.1%. On the other hand, the export of pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals contracted 13.7% y-o-y and 10.2% y-o-y respectively in June, with the latter declining for the fourth consecutive month. NODX declines in Europe (EU), Thailand, Malaysia, US, Indonesia and Japan were offset by growth across Hong Kong at 54.4%, Taiwan at 28.3%, South Korea at 33% and China at 8.5%. 'Some exports may have been diverted from the EU during the 90-day reprieve, as manufacturing supply cannot be ramped up quickly to meet import demand,' write Chua and Lee. Exports to Europe, note Chua and Lee, will 'likely recover and catch up' following the oncoming US reciprocal tariffs effective August. They add: 'This will help offset and cushion any export slowdown to the US in the second half.' In June, NODX to Hong Kong at 54.4% and Taiwan at 28.3% were led by specialised machinery and semiconductor chips, while exports to South Korea were driven by specialised machinery at 77.9%, measuring instruments at 202.7% and PCs at 195.3%. Chua and Lee note that non-monetary gold was a prominent driver of exports to China and Hong Kong, with gold exports to China surged 2222% y-o-y in June. Excluding gold, NODX to China fell 3.3% y-o-y, for the ninth consecutive month, while gold exports to Hong Kong jumped 71.1% y-o-y. Overall, Maybank's Chua and Lee expect the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) to upgrade its GDP forecast range for 2025 to 2% to 3%, once final numbers on the 2Q2025 GDP are released in August. They also expect Enterprise Singapore to upgrade its full year export forecast from the current conservative 1% to 3% range, as first half NODX growth came in higher than expected at 5.2%. Exports and manufacturing growth will likely slow after higher reciprocal tariffs for the region kick in on Aug 1, note Chua and Lee. According to them, positives that will mitigate the payback and severity of the second half export slowdown are relatively lower US tariffs, broadening global AI demand and US-China de-escalation with a probable extension of the US-China tariff truce beyond Aug 12. 'Singapore faces the lowest US reciprocal tariff in Asia, at about 5.1% in effective terms by our estimates, below the 10% baseline tariff rate due to the current exemptions,' write Chua and Lee. In the US, wholesale inventories have been rising modestly over the last few months as companies stock up, but US retail inventories have not shown any visible increase. On this, Chua and Lee write: 'We think that the US inventory overhang post-reciprocal tariffs may only last several months before companies have to replenish their stock and order more imports.' While they see export growth to 'likely moderate' in the second half, given the stronger-than-expected growth in the first half, Chua and Lee expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current modest appreciation bias for the upcoming meetings. 'We lower our three-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) forecast to 1.5% by end-2025 and 1.2% by end-2026, as safe haven flows continue to dampen domestic interest rates,' write Chua and Lee. Should the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) cut rates in the second half, this could also drive short-term interest rates lower, the pair add. Looking ahead, UOB's Koh sees that 'payback' from earlier frontloading is likely to dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. 'However, in our view, the eventual growth 'payback' may be more pronounced in trade-related services rather than in manufacturing, as frontloading seems to be more pronounced in electronics exports and less so in non-electronics exports and manufacturing,' writes Koh. Any further growth drag in these sectors, he adds, is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves. RHB's Gan and Raveenthar note that although June's NODX numbers offer a 'welcome reprieve' and underscore the resilience of Singapore's trade architecture—especially its regional diversification—it 'should not be viewed' as a structural re-rating of the external sector. The pair adds: 'The fundamental backdrop remains mixed, with a delicate balance between cyclical recovery and looming protectionist headwinds.' Meanwhile, on Singapore's GDP in the second quarter, Oxford Economics' Yue sees that readings from the quarter will be 'revised upwards' from advanced estimates released earlier this week. On NODX, Yue has a slightly more prolonged outlook with regards to the frontloading boost than her fellow economists, noting that the process is "straightforward". 'The extension of the tariff suspension deadline to Aug 1 could further support goods exports. That said, we anticipate any remaining resilience to diminish over the upcoming months, especially if higher tariffs are imposed in the 3Q2025,' writes Yue. She adds that Singapore could benefit from an established re-exporting sector and a lower reciprocal tariff, while a structural shift in AI-linked electronics demand should continue to be a tailwind. Yue surmises: 'Therefore, although export growth is expected to decelerate, a collapse in 2025 is unlikely.' Senior economist at DBS Bank, Chua Han Teng, agrees that NODX of 16.5% y-o-y in the 1H2025 is unsustainable, with the front-loading of shipments eventually being followed by a 'payback' through decelerating trade and manufacturing production to materialise in the second half. 'The city-state's external demand will likely face downward pressures, due to still-high global trade frictions and continued uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, such as the potential imposition of US sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical goods,' writes Chua. See Also: Click here to stay updated with the Latest Business & Investment News in Singapore Economists raise 2025 GDP forecast following 2Q flash estimate but stay wary on 2H Singapore, London are costliest cities for luxury spending New grant for local firms to seek advice, subsidies as Trump's tariffs bite Read more stories about where the money flows, and analysis of the biggest market stories from Singapore and around the World Get in-depth insights from our expert contributors, and dive into financial and economic trends Follow the market issue situation with our daily updates Or want more Lifestyle and Passion stories? 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Independent Singapore
17-07-2025
- Business
- Independent Singapore
June 2025 NODX jumps 13% YoY: Singapore beats forecasts as PCs, ICs, and gold shipments climb
Photo: Freepik/tawatchai07(for illustration purposes only) SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) jumped 13% year-on-year (YoY) in June, beating analysts' expectations, amid stronger shipments of personal computers (PCs), integrated circuits (ICs), and non-monetary gold, Reuters reported, citing data released by Enterprise Singapore on Thursday (Jul 17). A Reuters poll had forecast 5% annual growth, following a revised 3.9% decline in May. Exports of electronics such as ICs and PCs expanded by 17.5% and 53.8%, respectively, while non-electronic products, like non-monetary gold and specialised machinery, grew by 211.9% and 31.4%, respectively. Enterprise Singapore did not provide details of the month-on-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted figures. In June, exports to Hong Kong grew the most, rising 54.4% from a year ago. Shipments to South Korea, Taiwan, and China also went up by 33%, 28.3%, and 8.5%, respectively. However, exports to the United States dropped by 4.8%; the same went for exports to Japan (-3.4%), Indonesia (-13.6%), Malaysia (-8.0%), Thailand (-19.8%), and the European Union (-23.6%). For the first half of 2025, Singapore's NODX rose 5.2% YoY. According to Channel News Asia (CNA), citing advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Singapore's economy grew 4.3% YoY in Q2. However, Trade Minister Gan Kim Yong warned that new US tariffs and a diminishing front-loading effect could weigh on the economy's growth over the next six to 12 months. Earlier this month, US President Trump began telling trade partners, including key Asian allies Japan and South Korea, of higher tariffs of up to 50% from Aug 1. Singapore has not yet received a new notice from Washington but remains under the 10% baseline tariff announced in April. Meanwhile, Vietnam and Indonesia have secured lower rates through separate deals with the US. Enterprise Singapore said it is actively monitoring the evolving tariff situation and will adjust the 2025 NODX forecast as necessary to reflect changing market conditions. /TISG Read also: Singapore businesses to receive up to S$100,000 grant in October as they face a new tariff environment; SMEs to get 'more generous' support () => { const trigger = if ('IntersectionObserver' in window && trigger) { const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries, observer) => { => { if ( { lazyLoader(); // You should define lazyLoader() elsewhere or inline here // Run once } }); }, { rootMargin: '800px', threshold: 0.1 }); } else { // Fallback setTimeout(lazyLoader, 3000); } });
Business Times
17-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Singapore's key exports chart surprise 3.5% slide in May as front-loading cools
[SINGAPORE] Economists believe that front-loading activity may have started slowing down, after Singapore's key exports declined 3.5 per cent on the year in May after April's surge. The latest non-oil domestic exports (NODX) print reversed from the preceding month's 12.4 per cent jump and disappointed market expectations of 7.8 per cent growth, data from Enterprise Singapore showed on Tuesday (Jun 17). Shipments to most major trading partners fell, electronics NODX softened, and non-electronics exports contracted. RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan and associate research analyst Laalitha Raveenthar noted that economists had anticipated some potential upside from continued front-loading of exports during the 90-day trade truce, particularly between the US and China. The latest data could indicate that the boost from front-loading ahead of higher US tariffs is fading rapidly, they said. While Maybank analysts Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee also acknowledged that the front-loading boost 'could be starting to cool', they also pointed to 'idiosyncratic factors in the form of non-monetary gold and petrochemicals' that amplified May's NODX decline. Year on year, electronics exports gained 1.7 per cent in May, against April's 23.4 per cent expansion. PCs (50.9 per cent), integrated circuits (4.3 per cent) and consumer electronics (49 per cent) led the growth. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Although still expansionary, electronics exports have slowed and are 'susceptible to downside risks from US levies on semiconductor imports that could still be on the cards', said DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng. Meanwhile, non-electronics shipments contracted 5.3 per cent on the year, in a turnaround from the 9.3 per cent rise in April. The main drivers of the fall were petrochemicals (-17.8 per cent), non-monetary gold (-25.9 per cent) and specialised machinery (-11.7 per cent). 'Safe-haven gold demand eased on the back of the US-China tariff de-escalation,' noted Maybank's duo. They added that petrochemical shipments, 'plagued by weak downstream demand and oversupply from China's capacity expansion', has been lacklustre for some time. In contrast, pharmaceutical exports remained positive. UOB associate economist Jester Koh said this possibly reflects some effects of front-loading, on fears of the implementation of threatened sectoral tariffs. This is despite Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong's comment last month that Singapore may get a preferential tariff or exemption for pharmaceutical exports to the US, based on ongoing talks. NODX to six of Singapore's top 10 markets slid. Key exports to the US (-20.6 per cent) and Thailand (-17 per cent) declined by double-digits. NODX to Malaysia, China, the European Union and Japan also fell, from the year-ago period. Meanwhile, NODX to Hong Kong, South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan still grew on year in May – but the expansions were significantly weaker than the year-on-year growth recorded in April. The sluggish NODX outturn was not a huge surprise, said Koh, noting evidence of slowing export activity, such as month-on-month contractions in South Korea and Taiwan's imports from Singapore in May. Headed for worse Economists expect Singapore's trade data to continue to face pressure. RHB' team expects a further slowdown in the coming months despite the temporary reprieve from reciprocal tariffs, as global demand eases and consumer spending weakens ahead of anticipated heavier duties later in the year. Despite the seeming de-escalation of tensions between the US and China, they 'advise caution against premature optimism'. Observers agreed that the impacts will particularly be felt in H2, on the back of front-loading payback and potential for further tariff developments. The Maybank team said the magnitude of the payback and slowdown will depend on tariff outcomes for trading partners after the reciprocal tariff truce ends on Jul 8, while UOB's Koh flagged the possibility of a 'more protracted downturn'. Koh also noted that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further dampen business and consumer confidence. UOB downgraded its full-year 2025 NODX forecast to between 1 and 3 per cent, from 2 to 4 per cent previously. The situation remains fluid, Koh said, noting that US President Donald Trump last week said he intended to send letters to trading partners to set unilateral tariff rates ahead of the expiry of the pause on reciprocal tariffs – a development that markets are watching closely. Economists are also keeping an eye out for the US' threatened sectoral tariffs. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX contracted 12 per cent, reversing from the preceding month's 10.4 per cent expansion. Overall, total trade increased 1 per cent from the corresponding year-ago period in May, narrowing from the 14.7 per cent expansion in the preceding month. Total exports rose by 2.5 per cent, following April's 22.1 per cent. Total imports declined by 0.5 per cent, after the previous month's 6.9 per cent increase.
CNA
17-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Singapore's key exports fall unexpectedly by 3.5% after three months of expansion
SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined by 3.5 per cent in May, a sharp reversal from the 12.4 per cent growth recorded in April. Electronics grew, while non-electronics saw a decline, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore on Tuesday (Jun 17). A Reuters poll had forecast growth of 8 per cent. On a year-on-year basis, electronic product exports rose by 1.7 per cent in May, a significant decline in growth following a 23.4 per cent expansion in April. Integrated circuits, PCs and consumer electronics were the main drivers of growth in electronic NODX, rising by 4.3 per cent, 50.9 per cent, and 49 per cent, respectively. Non-electronic exports fell by 5.3 per cent in May, following a 9.3 per cent rise in the previous month. The biggest declines were in petrochemicals, non-monetary gold and specialised machinery, which fell by 17.8 per cent, 25.9 per cent and 11.7 per cent respectively. NODX to the United States, Thailand and Malaysia declined in May by 20.6 per cent, 17 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively, while NODX to Taiwan, Indonesia, South Korea and Hong Kong grew. Non-oil re-exports (NORX) grew by 16.1 per cent in May, falling from the 39.3 per cent expansion seen in April. Both electronics and non-electronics NORX saw an increase. Re-exports of electronic products rose by 29.9 per cent in May, moderating from the 58.5 per cent growth seen in the previous month. Non-electronic products saw growth of 1.1 per cent, following the 15.5 per cent expansion in April 2025. NORX to Taiwan, the United States and Vietnam grew by 152.5 per cent, 86.9 per cent and 49.1 per cent, respectively, in May. Total trade increased by 1 per cent in May following the 14.7 per cent growth seen in the preceding month.
CNA
16-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Singapore's key exports rise 12.4% in April, significantly higher than forecast
SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 12.4 per cent in April from the same month a year earlier, government data showed on Friday (May 16), well ahead of analyst estimates and a bright spot for an economy heavily exposed to global trade uncertainty. The rise compared with a Reuters poll forecasting year-on-year growth of 4.3 per cent, and followed a 5.4 per cent rise in March. Electronics exports grew 23.5 per cent year on year, almost double the 12.2 per cent growth in March. PCs, integrated circuits and disk media contributed the most to the expansion, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore. Non-electronics exports grew 9.3 per cent in April, higher than the 3.7 per cent increase in March. Among Singapore's top 10 markets, NODX expanded to all but two destinations. Overall shipments to China fell by 17 per cent year-on-year in April compared with a 29.5 per cent drop in March. NODX to Malaysia fell 1 per cent compared with a 12.4 per cent expansion in March. Exports to the US showed moderated year-on-year growth of 1.2 per cent from the figure of 6.2 per cent in March, while exports to Indonesia surged 111.2 per cent compared with the figure of 62.9 per cent in March. Exports to Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan also increased in annual terms in April. The outlook for Singapore remains uncertain as global trade is expected to slow under tariffs enacted by the United States. Selena Ling, an economist at Singapore bank OCBC, said that April's high exports could be a sign of customers attempting to get ahead of any rise in global trade tensions, especially as the tariffs set by US President Donald Trump exempted electronics. "With the 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariffs and various ongoing trade negotiations, these few months could be a relief window where front-loading potentially continues until there is better clarity," she said. "Something to watch is the softening of (non-oil domestic exports) to the US across both electronics and non-electronics." As one of the world's most open economies, Singapore is often seen as a bellwether for global growth as its international trade dwarfs its domestic economy. Singapore announced an "economic resilience" task force last month to deal with the trade fallout and the government said it cannot rule out a recession. It also downgraded its GDP forecast to 0 per cent to 2 per cent from 1 per cent to 3 per cent previously. Details of the month-on-month seasonally adjusted change in exports were not included in EnterpriseSG's statement.
