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Our 8% Dividend Playbook For The $36-Trillion Debt Panic
Our 8% Dividend Playbook For The $36-Trillion Debt Panic

Forbes

time2 hours ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

Our 8% Dividend Playbook For The $36-Trillion Debt Panic

The words "Government Debt" with hundred dollar bills in the background. 'Those are some crazy numbers.' An old friend had messaged me, and that line caught my attention. As it turned out, he had 36 trillion numbers in mind: the national debt, in other words. That is a pretty striking figure, and it's fair to ask how the country's debt could go from a trillion dollars back in 1981 to 36 times that today. 'Very irresponsible, imo,' my friend wrote. This sounds like a reasonable response, and many people think this way. But the problem here, from an investment perspective, is that most people look at the debt on its own, without considering the many other factors we're going to delve into today. My quick take: The rising US government debt load is not a good reason to avoid stocks, or, in our case, the 8%+ yielding closed-end funds (CEFs) that hold our favorite stocks. I'm talking about funds holding strong blue chips that form the backbone of the country's economy, like Visa (V), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and NVIDIA (NVDA). Beyond Alarmist Debt Headlines Now it is absolutely true that too much debt is unsustainable, and the US government isn't accountable for this debt—we taxpayers are. But there's more to the story than this. In 2017, total government debt hit $20 trillion. That, by the way, was the last time I wrote in-depth on this topic. I still feel the same way I did then: that the US government is actually financially healthier than the average American. That's because then, as now, people tended to look at the debt in isolation (a common mistake!). But the US government has plenty of tools it can use—and trends working in its favor—that make it easier to manage its debt than many people think. Let's start with a key number: the amount of revenue the government collects in a year through taxes and other fees. Today, as in 2017, about 18% of US GDP goes to the federal government. That's $5.2 trillion, at the current size of the US economy. Looked at another way, if Uncle Sam were to divert all of that revenue to paying off the debt (which is impossible, obviously, but stick with me for a second), he'd do so in about six-and-a-half years. Here's the key point, though: That six-and-a-half years is only slightly higher than the six years it would've taken in 2017. And let's not forget that we had a pandemic in there, which caused a big spike in public debt. So, viewed that way, government debt has remained about as manageable as it was eight years ago, and it would likely be more manageable if COVID hadn't come along. Now let's go one step further and stack up debt and GDP growth: Debt/GDP Chart Both federal debt and GDP were growing at almost the same rate before the pandemic, which, as we just discussed, caused a bump in debt. And, of course, GDP took a hit then, too, with the economy in lockdown. As a result, GDP has grown about 55% in the last eight years or so, while total debt has grown about 80%. Obviously, this means America's debt-to-income ratio is worse than it was before the pandemic. But that's not because of a structural issue. We can point at the pandemic as the main cause here, in this case. Still, a one-time hit could be trouble in the long run, right? Sure, but look at this chart. Debt/GDP 2017 The extra government debt due to the COVID-19 crisis looks bad because the numbers are huge, but if we compare it to the bump, and continued accelerated rise, in indebtedness sparked by the 2008/2009 financial crisis, the 2020 debt increase is rather small, as you can see below. Debt Crisis Before 2008, the ratio of US public debt to GDP was around 35%, and in less than five years, it doubled to 70%, where it remained until the pandemic, after which it went above 100% before falling to 96%, where it is now. On a relative basis, the jump in 2008 was clearly worse than in 2020. Yet America survived just fine. So there's no reason to worry, unless and until this chart changes direction. Labor Productivity Above is the real story: labor productivity. It's risen by a third since 2007, meaning Americans now produce about $1.33 in value for every dollar they produced back in 2007. And note how that's been a pretty stable line upwards? America keeps producing more effectively and efficiently: This is progress, growth and prosperity. And now we have AI, which is likely to give productivity another boost. This also explains why the S&P 500 has delivered 10.4% annualized returns over the last two decades, in line with the 10.3% annualized returns it's delivered over the last century. And, yes, during that time, the federal debt grew, as did the US government's income, thanks to higher US productivity producing higher GDP. So if you're thinking of cutting back on your US holdings due to the debt, remember these three things: Instead, now is the time to boost our holdings in the US, and doing so through CEFs yielding 8%+ is hands-down the best way to do it. With CEFs, we get exposure to strong blue chips like the ones I mentioned earlier, often at a discount, since these funds' market prices can—and often do—trade for less than the value of their portfolios. That's our 'discount to NAV' in CEF-speak. Big dividends and big discounts from S&P 500 stocks. Try getting that from an index fund or by buying these stocks 'direct.' It's just not possible. And any fear—and hence bigger discounts—caused by overwrought debt worries just makes our opportunity even sweeter. Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great income ideas, click here for our latest report 'Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 10% Dividends.' Disclosure: none

Cyngn Announces Strategic Collaboration With NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Cyngn Announces Strategic Collaboration With NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Cyngn Announces Strategic Collaboration With NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of the 13 Best Long Term Growth Stocks to Invest in Right Now. On June 26, Cyngn announced a strategic collaboration with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) as part of the Automatica 2025 robotics and automation showcase. The collaboration would entail Cyngn leveraging the NVIDIA Isaac robotics platform to power next-generation autonomous vehicle solutions for industrial applications. Automatica 2025 is a leading trade fair across the globe for robotics and smart automation. It offers a global stage to show the transformational effects of AI-powered solutions on logistics and manufacturing. Lior Tal, CEO of Cyngn, stated the following about the news: 'This collaboration with NVIDIA helps reinforce our mission to build cutting-edge autonomous vehicles that deliver real-world ROI to industrial operators.' Cyngn's autonomous industrial vehicles are presently operational in commercial environments to elevate throughput, slash labor costs, and improve safety. The vehicles are powered by Cyngn's proprietary DriveMod software and built on NVIDIA Isaac. Cyngn was chosen amidst a small number of robotics innovators using NVIDIA Isaac technologies to support safe, scalable autonomy across real-world environments. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) designs and manufactures computer graphics processors, chipsets, and other multimedia software. It operates in the Compute & Networking and Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) segments. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None.

Crypto Miner IREN Surges 102% as AI Pivot Delivers Profit Haul
Crypto Miner IREN Surges 102% as AI Pivot Delivers Profit Haul

Business Insider

time5 hours ago

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Crypto Miner IREN Surges 102% as AI Pivot Delivers Profit Haul

IREN Limited (IREN) is undergoing a transformation, and investors have taken notice. The cryptocurrency mining firm is turning into a profitable digital infrastructure play by combining Bitcoin mining with high-demand AI cloud services. So far, so good, as its recent numbers tell a compelling story: record quarterly revenue of $148.1 million, a return to profitability with $24.2 million in net income, and a rock-solid balance sheet. Confident Investing Starts Here: I am optimistic about the stock and believe it deserves serious consideration for those seeking exposure to a crypto miner with an AI infrastructure technology play. The stock has outstanding growth potential, with analyst price targets suggesting potential gains of more than 50%. The stock price has doubled over the past three months alone. Evolution into an AI Infrastructure Provider IREN has reinvented itself as a next-generation infrastructure provider serving both Bitcoin mining and AI computing needs. It operates cutting-edge data centers across North America, with facilities strategically located in Canada and Texas, all powered by renewable energy. The company has grown from holding a modest 2.8% share of Bitcoin production to capturing 4.5% of the market, placing it among the top 10 publicly traded miners globally. But the real game-changer has been the addition of AI cloud services, powered by nearly 1,900 NVIDIA H100 and H200 graphics processing units (the gold standard for AI computing). What sets IREN apart from competitors like Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is its commitment to renewable energy and operational efficiency. The company has achieved industry-leading performance with an all-in Bitcoin mining hash cost of just $23, resulting in gross profit margins exceeding 87%. However, in March, management made the strategic decision to pause Bitcoin mining expansion at 52 exahash per second and to redirect resources toward AI infrastructure development. It is a bold move into a rapidly growing market that McKinsey projects will require $6.7 trillion in infrastructure investment by 2030. Transformation Drives Financial Results The results from the last quarter suggest a successful transition. Q3 FY2025 revenue reached $148.1 million, 23.8% growth over the previous quarter. More to the point, the company achieved its second consecutive profitable quarter, reporting a net income of $24.2 million. Bitcoin mining contributed $141.2 million, with the company successfully mining 1,514 Bitcoins at a cost of $41,000 per coin while earning $93,000 per coin in revenue. Meanwhile, AI cloud services generated $3.6 million with a remarkable 97% hardware profit margin and 33% quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating that the business model transformation is working. Profitability metrics have been solid, with EBITDA of $83.3 million translating to a healthy 56% margin, while earnings per share of $0.11 were roughly in line with analyst expectations. The balance sheet is also quite strong, with zero debt and $184.3 million in cash, before a recent round of fundraising. IREN added $534.9 million from an oversubscribed convertible notes offering in June 2025, giving management significant resources to execute on growth plans. Looking ahead, management is targeting 50 exahash per second of mining capacity by June 2025, followed by the launch of Horizon 1, a 50-megawatt AI project in Q4. Furthermore, the company aims to bring online a massive 2-gigawatt facility in Texas by April 2026, which would significantly expand its AI hosting capabilities. A Deep Dive Into IREN's Valuation IREN appears undervalued when compared to peers in the cryptocurrency mining space. It trades at a relative discount, despite more robust forward-looking expectations, such as the forecast for positive EPS. Furthermore, the price-to-future-cash-flow ratio of 13.64x appears attractive when compared to the IT sector average of 19.15x, especially for a company executing a successful growth strategy in a high-demand market. The asset value story is equally compelling. With potential annual revenue exceeding $714 million at full mining capacity, plus growing AI services revenue, the enterprise value-to-forward EBITDA multiple of 12.16x appears modest relative to the sector average of 14.43x, suggesting the company's power infrastructure and renewable energy advantage may not be fully reflected in the current stock price. Is IREN a Good Stock to Buy? Wall Street has shown strong support for IREN's transformation story, with analysts issuing seven Buy ratings, one Hold, and no Sell recommendations over the past three months. IREN's average stock price target of $17.96 implies approximately 36% upside potential over the next twelve months. JPMorgan recently upgraded IREN to an 'Overweight' rating, naming it their top pick in the sector due to the company's operational efficiency and compelling growth outlook. Meanwhile, Nick Giles from B. Riley raised his price target to $15, and Roth MKM boosted its target to $20, both highlighting IREN's accelerated growth initiatives and strategic investments. The recently oversubscribed $550 million convertible notes offering also provides additional validation of institutional investor confidence. Initially announced at $450 million, the offering was increased twice due to strong demand, demonstrating that the smart money wants exposure to the company's growth story. Final Thoughts on IREN The company is currently undergoing a successful evolution from a Bitcoin miner into a diversified digital infrastructure provider with multiple revenue streams in a market with exceptional growth prospects. Its financial picture looks promising — the balance sheet is solid, revenue is trending up, and it's profitable again. The strategic pivot to AI infrastructure positions IREN to capitalize on a significant investment opportunity, while maintaining profitable Bitcoin mining operations. The combination of exposure to growth in the evolving digital economy, solid financials, and relative undervaluation makes this a stock I remain bullish on.

GIGABYTE AERO X16 Presents Slim & Powerful All-In-One Companion For Gamers And Content Creators
GIGABYTE AERO X16 Presents Slim & Powerful All-In-One Companion For Gamers And Content Creators

Geek Culture

time12 hours ago

  • Geek Culture

GIGABYTE AERO X16 Presents Slim & Powerful All-In-One Companion For Gamers And Content Creators

If there's one desire gamers and content creators have in common, it's the freedom to engage in their passion no matter where they are. For gamers, this means being able to take quick breaks from a busy work day with intense bouts of gaming, while for creators, it's the ability to efficiently edit captured content on a whim. A slim and powerful laptop can cater to both these needs, providing the portability needed for hassle-free transportation while also possessing the horsepower needed to run games and creative apps smoothly. The GIGABYTE AERO X16, the first Copilot+ PC from the company, not only fulfils both criteria, but sets a new standard as the one laptop that can do it all. With its ultra-slim profile of just 16.7mm and weighing only 1.9kg, the portable powerhouse is easy to carry around and eliminates unnecessary bulk, leaving more room for important peripherals to support a user's lifestyle like gaming controllers, cameras or lighting equipment. Despite its portability, the AERO X16 packs a punch with its top-line hardware, harnessing the power of up to an NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5070 laptop GPU(RTX 5050 and RTX 5060 variants are also available) and an AMD Ryzen AI 9 HX 370 processor, supplemented by up to 64 GB of DDR5 RAM. This empowers gamers to push out the most performance in even the latest titles like Doom: The Dark Ages , utilising tools powered by NVIDIA's latest Blackwell architecture like DLSS 4 and Multi Frame Generation to provide the AI horsepower needed for silky-smooth framerates and speedy loading times, while content creators benefit from lightning-fast export speeds and image generation in apps like Adobe Photoshop and DaVinci Resolve to help unleash their creativity. It's not just about maximum performance, as the machine also pushes the boundaries of immersion, featuring an impressive 92% screen-to-body ratio for its 16-inch IPS WQXGA (2560 × 1600) resolution display with ultra-slim Bezels on all four sides. Players can take their gaming to the next level with a smooth 165 Hz refresh rate for an edge against the competition, while creators can experience the most accurate picture possible with its 100% sRGB colour gamut, ensuring no details are lost in the creative process. When under an intensive load, a slim laptop can run hot, especially due to the limitations in ventilation capabilities that come with a small form factor but not the AERO X16. Its hardware innovations extend to efficient cooling technologies in the form of its WINDFORCE Infinity thermal management system, comprising a pair of 12V power-enhanced fans to create high thermal-efficient airflows, and its 3D VortX Air-Channelling, which allows hot air to divert out of its two-sided inlets and four-way outlets situated on the rear of the device. With this, its hand-rest remains at comfortable heat levels even after prolonged use, to ensure unhindered fun and creativity. For use in quiet areas like libraries or cafés, the system also features a 0dB fan mode to eliminate ambient fan noise. It's not just innovative heat management systems that enable the AERO X16 to thrive in extended usage scenarios, as the device is designed with longevity in mind, thanks to its powerful 76Wh battery, meaning users won't have to constantly scramble for the nearest power plug. Even when battery does run low, recharging is a breeze thanks to fast charging and PC 3.0 support, capable of a 50% charge within 30 minutes. Users can rest easy, no matter where their journey takes them, be it in a café, on public transport or even outdoors, this is one device built to last. It's the age of connectivity and bringing your work (and play) with you means the uncertainty of network speeds and availability. With its support for Wi-Fi 6E, the AERO X16 ensures that users can make the most of the connections available to them, providing up to six times faster internet speeds and 75% lower latency compared to the previous Wi-Fi 5 standard, allowing competitive gamers to take on quick online matches with a stable ping, and creators to easily download assets or upload their work without any fuss. As a Copilot+ PC, the AERO X16 also comes with a suite of AI-powered tools to enhance a user's everyday experience, giving content creators guidance with Cocreator, improving language accessibility with Live Captions, or aiding professionals with AI-powered video call enhancements. These features are further supplemented by GIGABYTE's proprietary AI-powered smart assistant GiMATE, a one-stop shop for customising multiple aspects of the device from overclocking, fan speeds, power saving and privacy settings, with the laptop also including a dedicated Press and Speak button for voice activation. As a prime example of the flexibility of modern devices, the GIGABYTE AERO X16 proves that not every product needs to be a one-trick pony, making it an indispensable companion for any gamer or content creator, empowering them to take their passions on the move. The GIGABYTE AERO X16 is now available on Techyard, with its RTX 5050 GPU variant starting from S$1,899, its RTX 5060 GPU variant from S$2,399 and its RTX 5070 GPU variant from S$2,499. The laptop comes in two colourways: Space Gray and Lunar White (available in August 2025). Kevin is a reformed PC Master Race gamer with a penchant for franchise 'duds' like Darksiders III and Dead Space 3 . He has made it his life-long mission to play every single major game release – lest his wallet dies trying. Advertorial gigabyte Gigabyte Aero laptop Notebook

Market Risk Overshadows IonQ's 466% Stock Surge
Market Risk Overshadows IonQ's 466% Stock Surge

Yahoo

time12 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Market Risk Overshadows IonQ's 466% Stock Surge

IonQ (IONQ) has established itself as a leading player in the quantum computing space, with its shares surging an impressive 466% since this time last year. The company's differentiated trapped-ion architecture and strong integration across major cloud platforms have garnered significant investor interest. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter However, despite its technological strengths, IonQ's current valuation reflects elevated multiples and persistent profitability challenges. As a result, the risk-reward profile has become more nuanced. While the company's long-term potential remains compelling, I believe the stock is fairly priced at present, and I therefore maintain a Hold rating. Founded in 2015 and headquartered in College Park, Maryland, IonQ has established itself as a quantum computing leader through its distinctive trapped-ion architecture. The firm offers quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) through cloud platforms like Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud. Users can also run quantum programs remotely on IonQ's hardware, without having to own the machines. The business model revolves around becoming a platform provider for next-generation computing, similar to how NVIDIA (NVDA) enables AI with GPUs, IonQ wants to enable quantum breakthroughs with trapped-ion systems. These systems can operate at room temperature while maintaining fidelity rates of 99.9% for two-qubit gates, providing significant advantages over competitors that require extremely cold operating conditions. Not intent on standing still, the company recently announced its largest acquisition, with the $1 billion purchase of Oxford Ionics, combining the stack with a proprietary ion-trap-on-chip architecture. Additional acquisitions include Lightsynq Technologies and a controlling stake in ID Quantique, representing a further $1 billion. These massive strategic moves demonstrate a commitment to building a comprehensive quantum ecosystem, though a significant dilution of between 7-11% of shares raises substantial concerns about shareholder value. Technological expansion through acquisitions is promising to a degree, but numerous execution risks remain, given the complexity of integrating multiple quantum technologies. IonQ's revenue trajectory highlights exceptional growth, rising from $1.6 million in 2021 to $43.1 million in 2024. Management forecasts revenue between $75 million and $95 million for 2025, implying a compound annual growth rate of approximately 200% since the company went public. This rapid acceleration reflects meaningful commercial traction and reinforces the growing demand for quantum computing solutions. IonQ holds a differentiated position as the only quantum hardware provider integrated across all major cloud platforms—Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. The company is targeting high-impact markets, particularly in cryptography, cybersecurity, and encryption, which offer substantial long-term potential. However, the path to profitability remains uncertain. In 2024, IonQ reported a net loss of $331.7 million, while operating expenses rose 38% year-over-year to $83.2 million in Q1 2025. Moreover, free cash flow remained significantly negative at -$123.7 million in 2024, underscoring the capital-intensive nature of quantum technology development. These financial challenges raise important questions about the timeline for achieving sustainable profitability. IonQ's competitive advantage stems from the distinctive strengths of its trapped-ion quantum architecture, which offers several benefits over superconducting approaches used by peers such as IBM (IBM) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Key differentiators include all-to-all qubit connectivity, longer coherence times, and significantly lower error correction overhead, estimated at a 13:1 ratio compared to approximately 100:1 for some competing platforms. While often complex for investors to understand, these details provide IonQ with a meaningful competitive advantage. The roadmap outlines a clear path to scaling, with plans to reach 100-qubit systems in the coming years and eventually millions of qubits through the integration of multi-core technology and photonic interconnects. An extensive patent portfolio of over 950 patents, spanning both quantum computing and networking, also provides additional competitive protection. Recent commercial deployments, including a $22 million Forte Enterprise quantum system to EPB in Chattanooga, demonstrate that practical applications are taking shape. While these developments are encouraging, the quantum computing market remains in its early stages, with uncertain commercial timelines and a heavy lean towards revenues generated in the U.S. for now, as reported by Main Street Data. While IonQ has established itself as a leader in trapped-ion quantum computing, several key risks warrant investor caution. The company remains significantly unprofitable, with ongoing cash burn primarily driven by substantial investments in research and development. Furthermore, the recent decision to discontinue disclosing forward bookings may raise concerns within the investment community regarding revenue visibility, complicating efforts to assess near-term growth momentum. Although the company's balance sheet is currently stable—with low leverage and a strong cash position—the persistently negative cash flow, as previously noted, presents a risk. Without meaningful progress toward improved financial efficiency, there is concern that the current capital position may not be sustainable over the long term. IonQ's reliance on government contracts and research partnerships presents another massive vulnerability, especially if public-sector funding priorities shift. And while its trapped-ion architecture has technical advantages for now, the broader field of quantum computing remains fairly experimental, with competitors pursuing alternatives that could scale more quickly or efficiently. Investors are ultimately betting not just on the company's execution, but on its very specific technological thesis proving correct. The quantum computing market presents enormous potential, with McKinsey research projecting that the market could reach $87 billion by 2035. However, this potential comes with significant valuation challenges that warrant caution. IonQ currently trades at approximately 135x projected 2025 sales, with an EV/Sales ratio of 232, dramatically above the sector median of 6.46, according to TipRanks data. While IonQ is operationally solid, these extreme valuation multiples create substantial downside risk if the company fails to meet lofty expectations. For now, a ~$10 billion market capitalization appears to reflect overly optimistic assumptions. Turning to Wall Street, IonQ carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on four Buys, one Hold, and zero recent Sell ratings. At $43, IonQ's average stock price target implies about 13% upside potential. Moreover, according to TipRanks data, the mixed trend in insider transactions reflects the complex variables at play. A spike in recent activity shows both heavy buying and selling. While these transactions are often unrelated to future performance, large transaction volumes of this nature are unlikely to send encouraging signals to the market about leadership confidence. In my view, IonQ presents a nuanced investment case within the emerging quantum computing sector. The company benefits from a strong technical foundation, an expanding patent portfolio, a healthy balance sheet, and a growing network of commercial and research partnerships—all of which support its long-term potential. However, the current valuation appears to be ahead of near-term fundamentals. Continued operating losses and execution risks—especially in such an early-stage and capital-intensive industry—highlight the disconnect between market performance and business maturity. Currently, it appears that the stock's exceptional run may have outpaced the company's underlying progress. My Hold rating reflects a balanced view of the risk-reward profile. While IonQ's leadership in technology and strategic positioning is compelling, the premium valuation constrains upside potential and introduces meaningful downside risk. Investors may be best served by exercising patience, allowing the company time to demonstrate continued execution and for the market to recalibrate its expectations accordingly. Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Sign in to access your portfolio

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