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Business Insider
26-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Top 5 African countries that produced the most oil in May 2025
For several African countries, oil production still stands as a key revenue source and a significant buttress to their Gross Domestic Product, making it a sturdy resource. However, the production of this resource typically fluctuates month-on-month, and for May, this trend has been no different. Oil production remains a key revenue source for several African nations, significantly impacting their GDP. OPEC's May report highlights a monthly decline in oil prices, including ORB, ICE Brent, and NYMEX WTI contracts. Global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain steady at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively. According to the latest OPEC report, the month of May saw the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fall by $5.36, or 7.8%, month on month (m-o-m), to $63.62/b. Additionally, the ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.45, or 3.7%, month on month to average $64.01/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $2.02, or 3.2%, to $60.94/b. 'The global economy maintained a stable growth trajectory, supported by healthy 1Q25 growth and tentative progress in US trade negotiations,' the report stated. 'The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026,' it added. According to last month's estimate, the global oil demand growth prediction for 2025 is still 1.3 mb/d, year-over-year (y-o-y). A few small revisions were made, mostly to the 1Q25 real data. In 2025, the OECD expects oil consumption to increase by around 0.2 mb/d, whereas non-OECD demand is expected to increase by over 1.1 mb/d. In contrast, the supply of non-DoC liquids is expected to increase by around 0.8 mb/d, year over year, in 2025, according to the same prediction made last month. Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and the United States are anticipated to be the primary growth engines. The report also notes that for the second half of the year, supply output in Africa and some Asian markets is projected to experience very significant declines. However, some African countries are still churning out decent amounts of crude. With that said, here are the African countries with the highest oil production last month in thousand barrels per day (tb/d), according to OPEC's latest report. Save Congo, all other African countries on the list experienced an increase in oil-production compared to last month. Top 5 African countries that produced the most oil in May 2025 Rank Country DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d Change between May and April 1. Nigeria 1,544 22 2. Libya 1,302 36 3. Algeria 921 9 4. Congo 253 -6 5. Gabon 233 12
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Caught in Crossfire of OPEC+ Discord and Tariff Shocks
The U.S. stock markets enjoyed a broad rally on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 jumping nearly 2% a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China tariffs will come down substantially, with another potential boost coming from a Wednesday Reuters report citing unnamed sources as saying talks to lead to significant tariff reductions. 'It will come down substantially, but it won't be zero,' Trump said on Tuesday, echoing earlier remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Less than a day later, reports emerged that the administration is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to as low as 50% if talks with Beijing are successful. But while the stock markets are enjoying a reprieve, oil prices are not. On Wednesday at 2:25 p.m. ET, Brent crude for June delivery was down 2.2%, only recouping a few tenths of a percentage point on the tariff optimism. In a Tuesday report, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered warned that the ongoing tariff snafu has unsettled oil markets, creating negativity about demand prospects and weighing heavily on oil market sentiment. Volatility in oil markets has spiked, with the 30-day realized annualised front-month volatility clocking in at 42.8% at settlement on 21 April, over 23 ppt higher than at the start of April and just 1.7 ppt below a 30-month high. StanChart has predicted oil markets could see a short-covering rally, noting there's been record net-selling across the four main Brent and WTI contracts following the 2 April announcement of U.S. tariffs. The ICE Brent positioning index fell 28.9 w/w to -40.3 while the NYMEX WTI positioning index rose 21.0 w/w to -79.0. StanChart says the overall change was largely due to the closing out of longs rather than the opening of new shorts, with longs across the four contracts falling by 26.3 million barrels (mb), while shorts increased by 5.8 million barrels. Further, StanChart says oil markets appear to have ignored the latest [bullish] move by OPEC+. A week ago, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman submitted their individual compensation plans to OPEC, potentially cutting the amount of extra barrels they will bring to the markets during their ongoing unwinding of cuts. The latest plan requires the seven nations to cut output by a further 369,000 barrels per day each month starting April 2025 now to June 2026. Under the new plan, monthly cuts will range from 196,000 bpd to 520,000 bpd from April until June 2026, up from 189,000 bpd to 435,000 bpd previously. But Kazakhstan on Wednesday threw another spanner in the works, saying it would prioritize national interest, not OPEC quotas, and pump at on Wednesday, Reuters reported that ?OPEC+ is considering accelerating oil output increases for June, following a significant 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) hike in May, which was three times higher than initially planned. The decision to boost production in May was influenced by a sharp decline in oil prices to a four-year low, driven by factors such as the U.S.-China trade war and concerns over compliance within the group. Saudi Arabia, in particular, advocated for the increased output to address perceived non-compliance by countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq. However, Kazakhstan has stated it will prioritize its national interests, indicating it may not adhere strictly to OPEC+ quotas. A meeting involving eight OPEC+ countries is scheduled for May 5 to finalize the output plan for June. Market reactions have been mixed, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating in response to these developments. Previously, eight OPEC+ nations unveiled plans to advance their planned phase-out of voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May--equivalent to three monthly increments. The announcement of the accelerated unwinding clip came at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on trading partners, deepening the shock to oil markets. The move confirmed previous rumors that Saudi Arabia could be willing to abandon its traditional role as OPEC's swing producer as it looks to make a strong statement against production cut violators such as Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Last September, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia was ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude oil as it prepares to increase output, effectively signaling that it is resigned to a prolonged period of lower oil prices. Saudi Arabia currently accounts for 2 mb/d out of 2.8 mb/d output cuts from OPEC members and a total of 3.15 from OPEC+. Essentially, the Saudi contribution is double that of the entire group, with only the Kingdom and Kuwait currently cutting production by a double-digit percentage. In fact, a big part of lower output by other OPEC+ members is not voluntary but rather reflects their inability to meet their quotas. Kazakhstan, in particular, has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ output quota of 1.468 million bpd. Kazakhstan has ramped up oil production, with the country's crude oil and gas condensate--a type of light oil- output hitting a record high of 2.12 million barrels per day in February, good for a 13% increase from January. Excluding gas condensate, crude oil production increased 15.5% m-o-m to 1.83 million bpd. The OPEC+ member has been able to increase oil output despite damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), its main export route via Russia. Back in February, Russia reported that CPC capacity was cut by 30-40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. It's not clear how Kazakhstan has managed to ramp up output despite having constrained export capacity. ?azakhstan relies on the CPC for more than 80% of its exports. The surge in output follows a rise in production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), which has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. By Alex Kimani for More Top Reads From this article on
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. oil prices dip below nerve-wracking $60 threshold with record-high production in the balance
The U.S. crude oil benchmark temporarily plunged below the stress-inducing $60 per barrel threshold on Monday amid tariff and economic slowdown fears, putting the nation's record-high volumes of oil production at risk. The dip below $60 for front-month NYMEX WTI oil for the first time in four years was its lowest since April 2021 when the pandemic was still in full swing. Prices rebounded to a settlement price of $60.70 per barrel in the afternoon. Trump administration tariff concerns are leading the drop, but global demand concerns were already rising in recent months. OPEC exacerbated the situation last week with an unexpected announcement to increase volumes. Energy analysts see the $60 per barrel price as a key threshold when oil producers scale back activity and, eventually, cut back on production. Prices started April above $70. 'At $60, the U.S. is going to slow down. There's no question,' said Marshall Adkins, head of energy for Raymond James. 'Production is going to go down. It just won't happen overnight. 'We just got hit over the heads by a bat. We're just trying to get off the ground to see what to do,' he added. 'The word of the day is uncertainty.' The U.S. currently churns out nearly 13.6 million barrels of crude daily, up from about 11.3 million barrels a day in April 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The U.S. oil industry has essentially fluctuated between growth and stability—maintenance mode—since the pandemic without any major setbacks until now. To put oil pricing into context, the industry cuts back at $60 per barrel. 'But $50 is a disaster for everyone,' Adkins said. 'And you're not going to get 'Drill, baby, drill' or meaningful activity growth unless it's $85 or above.' Research firm Rystad Energy estimated the average breakeven price for profitability in the U.S. oil sector is $62 per barrel. 'With Lower 48 production growth already unlikely outside the Permian [Basin], a downshift in the country's most prolific oil basin would decelerate the rate of production growth in 2025, should prices remain subdued,' said Matthew Bernstein, Rystad vice president for North American oil and gas. Gabriele Sorbara, managing director at Siebert Williams Shank & Co., said most oil producers will take a wait-and-see approach with the tariffs to see if they stick and how markets continue to react. So, the industry is not coming to a standstill unless prices continue to plummet. One strategy companies will take, Sorbara said, is continuing to drill wells—maybe at a slower pace—but not completing them or bringing them online unless prices recover. 'You want to keep that organizational momentum,' he said. 'I think they'll hold onto stuff as long as they can because they don't want to let go of a [drilling] rig or [fracking] crew if they're really efficient.' Companies with any extra cash may be more likely to use those dollars on stock buybacks rather than drilling additional wells, he said. And those struggling more will pull back on buybacks and dividends, as well as drilling activity. While oil markets are showing panicked signs and pricing fluctuations, natural gas prices are more stable. 'You're not going to turn the lights off, but you are going to drive less,' Sorbara said, comparing the difference between the two commodities. The biggest concern for natural-gas producers is whether the tariffs hurt the technology sector to the point it causes a notable slowdown in the data-center construction boom, which is expected to trigger greater natural-gas demand, he said. As for gasoline and fuel prices, they typically peak in April amid refinery maintenance season in preparation for the busy summer driving months. Due to the selloff in oil prices, it looks like that's about to change, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum fuel analysis at GasBuddy. 'There are plenty of drops to come,' DeHaan said. 'Tariffs are really the biggest driver for fuel prices right now.' The national average for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.21 per gallon before markets opened April 7. If crude prices remain low or fall further, the average fuel price could sink below the $3 per gallon threshold as early as May, DeHaan said. The last time the average was below $3 for more than two days was May 2021, according to GasBuddy. President Trump has advocated for lower fuel prices, including citing the $3 per gallon level multiple times. In reaction to the markets falling on Monday, Trump posted on social media: 'Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the longtime abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place.' DeHaan said sometimes, you need to be careful what you wish for. 'Trump wants cheap gasoline, but cheap gasoline usually means the economy is under pressure.' he said. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
In the reeling energy sector, an unexpected OPEC production hike plus tariff fears send oil prices plunging 7%
President Trump's sweeping tariffs combined with OPEC's unexpectedly large production hike are combining to trigger a 'double whammy' on the oil and gas sector, resulting in crude prices tumbling and fears rising of lower energy demand in an economic slowdown. The tariffs, which did exclude oil and fuel imports, are still expected to increase equipment and supply costs for energy production, construction and transportation, while potentially creating weaker global energy demand. The decision from key OPEC nations and allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, to triple their expected production increase in May adds extra supplies on top of existing recession fears. The coincidentally joint announcements from the White House and OPEC caused oil prices to plunge by nearly 7% on April 3 with the U.S. benchmark for oil —front-month NYMEX WTI—hovering just above $66 per barrel, well down from the nearly $78 per barrel when Donald Trump took office in January. 'The world got more complicated, and the outlook is cloudier,' said energy forecaster Dan Pickering, founder and chief and investment officer for Pickering Energy Partners. 'It's a double whammy because you have OPEC boosting supply, which I think was dangerous to start with, but now you have this issue of tariffs being higher or worse than expected,' Pickering said. While the Trump administration is making it easier for the oil and gas industry to do business by easing environmental regulations and fast-tracking permitting, the sector is clearly somewhat 'disgruntled' with the president now, Pickering said. 'The bloom is off the rose. Now we have to see if the ease of doing business can help offset some of the pain of lower prices,' Pickering said. 'I wouldn't call the energy industry happy right now, but not completely surprised. This was a risk. Oil prices were better under Obama and Biden than they were under Bush and Trump. The Republicans make it easier to do business, but prices have been lower during their regimes.' Still, the lobbying American Petroleum Institute chose to focus instead on what Trump didn't do on energy imports. 'We welcome President Trump's decision to exclude oil and natural gas from new tariffs, underscoring the complexity of integrated global energy markets and the importance of America's role as a net energy exporter,' API said in a statement. During late Wall Street trading April 3, the stocks of Big Oil giants such as Chevron and BP were down 5.5% and 6.8% respectively, while independent U.S. oil producers fell more sharply, such as ConocoPhillips at nearly 9% and Occidental Petroleum at more than 10%. Many smaller producers, including Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy, were down 11% or more on the day. The announcement from the so-called OPEC+ group of key OPEC members plus Russia, Kazakhstan and Oman would add 411,000 barrels per day of additional crude oil to global markets starting in May at a time when supply-and-demand fundamentals were already trending weaker. Still, some of this may be overstated because Saudi Arabia and others are reacting to rising domestic power demand during the upcoming summer months in their countries, and they are not necessarily aspiring to flood the global market in an arms race, said Matt Reed, energy analyst and vice president for Foreign Reports. 'OPEC+ has its own sensible reasons for producing more sooner,' Reed said. 'Unfortunately for them, they couldn't put this decision off much longer because they need to set prices and line up sales for next month. 'It's just bad luck this decision coincided with Trump's slapdash tariff announcement.' Pickering certainly agreed on the not-so-great luck. 'The timing is terrible and now it's more terrible.' 'Forget all the tariff noise. Just on supply and demand, somebody is going to have to blink, or prices are going to $50 [per barrel],' Pickering said, citing a price point where the industry could fall below profitability and drastically reduce activity further. Already, dealmaking will come to a temporary standstill and budgets will be lowered accordingly, he said. Trump may need to impose greater sanctions on Iranian oil to help balance supply and demand, he added. 'If we don't see that, it's going to get ugly, or uglier.' OPEC may be thinking of both rising domestic demand and potential U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil in its decision, said Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti. "OPEC may be preparing the groundwork," Galimberti said. "Trump is still likely to impose maximum pressure on Iran." And, while the ultimate results of the tariffs are unknown, he said, the world is now facing a new world order. 'One thing is already clear: the global trading order based on the U.S. as the consumer and borrower of last resort is ending, and the world's economic and energy system will need to adapt to a new emerging order, whose shape and form we don't yet know,' Galimberti said. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
