Latest news with #NabilAl-Marsoumi
Shafaq News
4 days ago
- Business
- Shafaq News
Post Iran-Israel war: Iraqi economist warns of vulnerabilities
Shafaq News - Basra Iraq's economy is increasingly exposed to external shocks and structural weaknesses following the Iran-Israel war, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned on Saturday. Al-Marsoumi, a professor of economics at Basra University, stated that insurance premiums on oil tankers from the Gulf to Asia surged by 60% during the 12-day war, while transport costs—particularly to China and India—increased by 195%. These shifts, he noted, highlight Iraq's vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions in energy supply chains. He also warned that a prolonged conflict could have forced a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for most Iraqi oil exports. With the Ceyhan pipeline suspended since March 2023, Iraq would have been left without a viable export channel. Kurdistan's Gambit Al-Marsoumi assessed that halted oil flows from the Kurdistan Region, averaging around 400,000 barrels per day through the Ceyhan pipeline to Turkiye, represent a minor share of national revenue and can be compensated by output from central and southern fields. However, he emphasized that the more urgent concern lies in the Region's salary crisis. 'There is no legal or fiscal basis for delaying public sector wages,' he said, calling for a revenue-sharing framework that routes all oil and gas income through the federal treasury to ensure timely disbursements. Regarding the way the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is reportedly to take to cover salaries, he explained that this would be by using internal revenues while reducing employee allowances by 30%—a temporary measure that, in his view, underscores the absence of a political settlement between Erbil and Baghdad. Labor Imbalance Turning to Iraq's energy sector contracts, Al-Marsoumi pointed to structural deficiencies in foreign labor agreements. Unlike Iran, which retains over 250 Russian experts at its Bushehr nuclear facility under binding terms, Iraq lacks enforceable retention clauses. 'More than 5,000 foreign nationals currently work in Iraq's energy sector, often receiving compensation far exceeding local staff despite limited involvement in daily operations,' he noted, adding that this disparity places unnecessary financial strain on national resources. Al-Marsoumi described Iraq's business environment as fundamentally unattractive to foreign investors. He cited systemic corruption, armed group influence, weak infrastructure, legal complexity, and widespread rent-seeking as key deterrents. He rejected government claims of attracting $90 billion in foreign investment as 'media posturing,' pointing out that Iraq's balance of payments shows no evidence of actual capital inflows. Al-Marsoumi also criticized Iraq's continued dependence on imported gasoline and gas, calling it a policy contradiction for the world's second-largest oil producer. He contrasted this with Iran's heavily subsidized domestic fuel pricing. 'Iraq has made little tangible progress toward energy self-sufficiency. We need structural reform led by political leadership committed to economic diversification. Despite frequent public pledges to develop agriculture and industry, oil revenues continue to account for 91% of the federal budget.' To reduce external vulnerabilities, he recommended activating alternative export corridors through Turkiye, Syria, and Jordan. Price Volatility Al-Marsoumi reported that oil prices declined to around $66 per barrel after the conflict, with May revenues barely covering public payrolls. He urged the government to curb spending and expand non-oil revenue streams. He cited recent remarks by US President Donald Trump suggesting China could resume imports of Iranian oil—a signal, he argued, of possible sanctions relief that might allow Tehran to export up to 750,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia also plans to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in response to US calls for lower global oil prices, according to Al-Marsoumi, marking a shift from price stabilization to market share competition, which could push prices down toward $60 per barrel.
Iraqi News
25-06-2025
- Business
- Iraqi News
Iraq may shift to pipelines to tackle possible closure of Strait of Hormuz
Baghdad ( – Regional tensions and Iranian threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz may compel Iraq to reactivate outdated pipelines that previously carried a significant portion of its oil exports through Saudi Arabia and Syria. A $9 billion pipeline via Jordan that is now on hold might possibly be revived, according to Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI). Iraq transports most of its crude oil exports via oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; however, Iran's ongoing threats to close the strait have caused concern in Baghdad. Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an energy and economics professor at Basra University, told AGBI that Iraq has alternative possibilities, such as pipelines, but political factors have always outweighed economic ones. Given the latest developments in the region, Iraq might seriously think about revitalizing these pipelines, according to Al-Marsoumi. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, experts believe that Iraq will be unable to export more than 17 percent of its oil. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will still be able to export approximately 85 percent and 68 percent of their petroleum, respectively, thanks to the pipelines they have constructed for this purpose.
Shafaq News
19-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Foreign oil experts exit Iraq amid Iran-Israel conflict
Shafaq News/ Several foreign technical experts working with oil companies in Iraq have recently withdrawn from the country due to escalating tensions from the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, a senior industry source told Shafaq News on Thursday. The source noted that some foreign workers, particularly those who had entered Iraq on visas issued in Kuwait, are now unable to return after leaving, citing 'complex border procedures or disrupted coordination between the two countries.' As a result, many remain in their home countries, continuing to work remotely. 'Certain nationalities, especially British experts, have also exited Iraq,' the source added, 'yet continue to receive full salaries despite their absence from the field.' The Iraqi government has reportedly issued reassurances to remaining foreign workers through coordination with Kuwaiti authorities, promising safe exit routes if tensions worsen or direct threats emerge inside the country. Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned that the remote work arrangement for absent foreign oil personnel could send 'misleading signals about the security situation in Iraq.'
Shafaq News
14-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Expert warns of energy disruptions after attack on Iran's South Pars field
Shafaq News/ Damage to Iran's Fajr refinery in the South Pars gas field could disrupt both domestic and international energy supplies, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed on Saturday. South Pars, one of the world's largest natural gas fields, spans Persian Gulf waters shared by Iran and Qatar. The field contains approximately 14 trillion cubic meters of Iran's gas reserves. Al-Marsoumi highlighted its critical role in supporting Iran's economy and providing gas to regional markets, especially amid ongoing electricity shortages and shifting global energy dynamics. He also warned that severe damage to the field could impact Iran's domestic energy consumption as well as its gas exports, with Turkiye and Iraq expected to be the most affected. The remarks came after an Israeli drone strike targeted the refinery, triggering a large explosion. Consequently, production from the Phase 14 platform, which delivers 12 million cubic meters of gas, was temporarily halted. Repairs are underway, with operations set to resume once the platform is restored.
Shafaq News
12-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Iraq ranks second among Arab seaborne oil exporters in May
Shafaq News/ Iraq ranked second among the largest Arab oil exporters by sea in May 2025, according to data from the Washington-based Energy Research Unit. The figures showed that seaborne crude oil exports from the top five Arab exporters rose in three countries on a monthly basis, while Iraq and Libya recorded declines. Saudi Arabia led the list in May, increasing its seaborne exports by approximately 266,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month. Iraq followed in second place with an average of 3.27 million bpd, down by 32,000 bpd compared to April's 3.3 million bpd. Government reports indicated that Iraq aimed to keep exports below 3.2 million bpd in May and June to align with its OPEC+ production quota. On a year-on-year basis, Iraqi exports fell by 294,000 bpd compared with May 2024, when they reached 3.56 million bpd. The United Arab Emirates ranked third with exports rising to 3.02 million bpd, followed by Kuwait with 1.37 million bpd. Libya came fifth, with exports declining to 1.19 million bpd last month. Meanwhile, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned of potential disruptions to maritime trade routes in the event of a regional conflict between the United States and Iran, which could negatively impact oil supplies. He urged the resumption of exports via the pipeline from the Kurdistan Region to Turkiye's Ceyhan port. In a social media post, Al-Marsoumi wrote, "If the US and Iran agree, the world will live in peace. If they disagree, the gates of hell will open.' He noted that in case of escalation, 'maritime trade routes will close, oil export platforms will be destroyed, transport and insurance costs will surge, and oil supplies will be negatively affected, pushing prices higher.' Al-Marsoumi added that Gulf oil-exporting countries would be severely impacted as export routes narrow or shut down, especially those lacking alternative outlets. 'The reviving the Ceyhan pipeline as more essential now than ever,' he concluded.
