Latest news with #NancyVandenHouten
Boston Globe
a day ago
- Business
- Boston Globe
US job openings in May hit 7.8 million in a continuing display of labor market resilience
Advertisement However, the report showed that hiring fell in May, suggesting that employers, though reluctant to lose staff, are hesitant about adding workers amid uncertainty over the economy. 'Hiring remains depressed, but that is less worrisome than it would be otherwise because layoffs continue to be low,' Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. Openings are high by historical standards but have come down sharply since peaking at a record 12.1 million in March 2022. The US job market has steadily decelerated from the hiring boom of 2021-2023 when the economy bounced back from COVID-19 lockdowns. The unexpectedly strong post-pandemic recovery ignited inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. Advertisement The higher borrowing costs have gradually cooled the labor market, and Trump's policy of taxing imports at high rates has added uncertainty to the hiring outlook. The Labor Department is expected to report Thursday that the US economy generated 117,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be down from 139,000 in May, from an average of 168,000 a month in 2024 and from a monthly average of 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to a still-low 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent in May.
Hindustan Times
a day ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
US job openings see highest rise since November amid economic uncertainty; Labor Department's full report here
U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in May, a sign that the American labor market remains resilien t in the face of high borrowing costs and uncertainty over U.S. economic policy. U.S. employers posted 7.8 million vacancies in May, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, up from 7.4 million in April. Economists had expected a slight decrease to 7.3 million.(Bloomberg) U.S. employers posted 7.8 million vacancies in May, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, up from 7.4 million in April. Economists had expected a slight decrease to 7.3 million. Openings were reported at hotels and restaurants and at finance companies. Vacancies at the federal government fell to the lowest level since May 2020, likely reflecting President Donald Trump's hiring freeze. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of Americans quitting their job — a sign of confidence in their prospects — rose modestly, and layoffs fell. However, the report showed that hiring fell in May, suggesting that employers, though reluctant to lose staff, are hesitant about adding workers amid uncertainty over the economy. 'Hiring remains depressed, but that is less worrisome than it would be otherwise because layoffs continue to be low,' Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. Openings are high by historical standards but have come down sharply since peaking at a record 12.1 million in March 2022. The U.S. job market has steadily decelerated from hiring boom of 2021-2023 when the economy bounced back from COVID-19 lockdowns. The unexpectedly strong post-pandemic recovery ignited inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs have gradually cooled the labor market, and President Donald Trump's policy of taxing imports at high rates has added uncertainty to the hiring outlook. The Labor Department is expected to report Thursday that the U.S. economy generated 117,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be down from 139,000 in May, from an average 168,000 a month in 2024 and a from a monthly average of 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to a still-low 4.3% from 4.2% in May.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings hit highest level since November 2024
Job openings unexpectedly rose in May to hit the highest level since November 2024, according to government data released Tuesday. The report comes as investors closely watch for any signs of slowing in the labor market amid a debate over when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.76 million jobs open at the end of May, an increase from the 7.39 million seen the month prior. The April figure was revised higher by 4,000 openings. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.3 million openings in May. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.5 million hires were made during the month, down from the 5.61 million made during April. The hiring rate ticked lower to 3.4% from the 3.5%. In one sign that workers remain cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved up to 2.1% from 2% in April. Still, both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." "Hiring remains depressed, but that is less worrisome than it would be otherwise because layoffs continue to be low," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients. The latest JOLTS data comes as investors continue to watch economic data for any signs of impact from President Trump's tariffs. In May, the labor market showed some signs of cooling with the US labor market adding 139,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Tuesday's data comes ahead of another update on the labor market expected for release on Thursday morning. Consensus expects the June jobs report to show hiring slowed further, with nonfarm payroll additions projected to fall to 110,000 and the unemployment rate expected to tick higher to 4.3%. As of Tuesday, markets were pricing in a roughly 23% chance the Fed will cut interest rates at its July meeting and a 96% chance that at least one cut happens by the end of its September meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
The Star
6 days ago
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks advance despite mixed data
NEW YORK, June 26 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks saw solid gains and flirted with record highs on Thursday as investors weighed mixed economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential for interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 404.41 points, or 0.94 percent, to 43,386.84. The S&P 500 climbed 48.86 points, or 0.80 percent, to 6,141.02, which is just shy of the record close high of 6,144.15 on Feb. 19, 2025. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 194.36 points, or 0.97 percent, to finish at 20,167.91, barely missing record closes. Nine of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory. Communication services and energy led the gains, rising 1.77 percent and 1.50 percent, respectively. Real estate and consumer staples were the only sectors to decline, falling 0.64 percent and 0.18 percent. On the economic front, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department's final estimate. That marks a deeper decline than earlier estimates of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended June 21, better than economists' expectations of 245,000. "The data are consistent with softening of labor market conditions, particularly on the hiring side of the labor market equation," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics. "For now, we don't think the labor market is weak enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates before December, but the risk is increasing that once the Fed starts to lower rates, it will have some catching up to do." U.S. durable goods orders rebounded sharply, surging 16.4 percent in May after a revised 6.6 percent decline in April, according to the Commerce Department. However, new orders excluding the transportation sector only expanded 0.5 percent from the previous month, suggesting the distortion by new Boeing contracts. Political tensions also lingered over the central bank's independence, with speculation growing around U.S. President Donald Trump potentially installing a "shadow chair" to influence Fed policy ahead of the 2026 end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee dismissed such concerns in a CNBC interview. "That would have no effect on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) itself," Goolsbee said. "Just look at the minutes and transcripts. You can see, word for word, what the rationale are in making the decisions, and they're not about elections and they're not about partisan politics." Mega-cap technology companies mostly advanced. Nvidia rose 0.46 percent to a new record high, extending gains from the previous session that reinstated its position as the world's most valuable company. Broadcom gained more than 2 percent, as did Amazon and Meta Platforms. Microsoft and Alphabet each gained more than 1 percent. Tesla and Apple slipped modestly. Despite signs of easing tensions, global economic growth remains under pressure. Fitch Ratings projected world GDP growth of just 2.2 percent in both 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 2.7 percent, and forecast U.S. growth of only 1.5 percent this year. "Tariffs will push up inflation, labor-force growth is slowing sharply, and some inflation expectation measures remain high," the Fitch team said, adding that they expect only a single interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The US labor market is creating new jobs, but maybe not yours
Your own job is a binary event — you either have one or you don't. Labor market data so closely tracked by investors offers a different story about US employment, one told in the aggregate. And reconciling the two right now has made discussion about the overall state of the US job market particularly rich. In May, the US economy added 139,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Data on job openings posted last week showed a surprise increase in April, though hiring demand continues to cool from post-pandemic highs. That's at least according to the US government. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Data from payroll processor ADP published last week, however, suggested there were only 37,000 roles added to the private sector, the fewest since March 2023. For recent college grads and others at the entry level of the workforce, the job market hasn't been this challenging in years. Take this labor market data together with surveys from the services and manufacturing industries, and some economists see signs of "paralysis" forming in the US economy. As President Truman once said, it's a recession when your neighbor loses their job and a depression when you lose yours. A reimagining of this quote might say it's an economic expansion when your recent college graduate secures a job before being handed their diploma and a recession if they're still out of work when school starts again in the fall. In a modern labor market context where many thousands of people cobble together disparate income streams via consulting, contract work, influencing, and so forth, the lines around employment and unemployment might blur. Employment insurance data published weekly by the Department of Labor is less ambiguous. Though again, here we see enough room for two visions of the labor market to appear. On a weekly basis, initial filings for unemployment insurance remain low, tallying 247,000 last week. And though this was the most since October, economists at Barclays said in reaction to the report that the figures looked "exaggerated" due to a large increase from Kentucky and lingering seasonal adjustment issues related to the pandemic. Contrasting that are the continuing jobless claims — or the number of people who have filed for benefits after at least one week of unemployment — which have risen to nearly four-year highs in recent weeks. "The elevated level of continued claims is consistent with other data, like a low hiring rate and increasing duration of unemployment, indicating that it is difficult for those who are unemployed to find new jobs," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note last week. In May, the number of Americans unemployed for at least 15 weeks totaled 2.5 million; a year ago, this stood at 2.31 million. Some interpretations of the data offer close watchers scope to choose their own adventure through this shift in the labor market. But what's clear is that there has been a shift. And after many years of the labor market continuing to prove resilient, the risks are tilted toward ignoring a change in character and forgetting that while your own employment may have an on/off switch, the US economy is too big and plodding to turn at the speed of life. "The main risk is that the appearance of an okay labor market on the surface lulls the Federal Reserve into a false sense of security about the future," wrote Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro, in a note following Friday's monthly jobs report. "Labor market conditions are slowing down, and cyclical parts of the labor market continue to weaken."Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
