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Politico
6 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Making sense of Trump's weapons deal
With help from Phelim Kine, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric President DONALD TRUMP and NATO Secretary General MARK RUTTE made a big announcement that the U.S. will be sending Patriot missile defense systems and other weapons to Ukraine — via sales to NATO countries. Exactly how will that work? That's still being hammered out, with timing even less certain. In one scenario, European countries could buy American weapons for transfer to Ukraine. Or they could send their own weapons to Kyiv and then buy American replacements, the leaders said in the Oval Office. It's not yet clear how far along the planning the effort is, and defense officials and allies all expressed some confusion in the hours after the morning press conference. Two officials from close NATO allies told NatSec Daily today that they haven't been fully briefed on the plan and don't know exactly how their countries would participate, but they did appear willing. A U.S. defense official, who like the allies was granted anonymity to speak to a developing policy matter, said there are some questions that the two sides need to iron out. 'I know our industry can and will sell to allies, but there are already delivery backlogs on most weapons so these deals will either jump to the top of the list or they'll have to wait a couple years for delivery,' the official said. MARK MONTGOMERY, a retired Navy officer now at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, pointed out that the Pentagon has increased its purchases of Patriot missiles over the past year, 'which tells me Patriot really is challenged,' in keeping a healthy stockpile which military leaders want to restock in big numbers. After supplying Ukraine and Israel, the U.S. also shot off a huge number of Patriots defending U.S. bases in the Middle East during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks last month. One of the reasons the Pentagon gave for stopping the delivery of weapons to Ukraine this month was a worry over the depth of U.S. stockpiles, a view that some Pentagon officials on the Joint Staff challenged. Defense industry analyst ROMAN SCHWEIZER of TD Cowen sent a note to investors pointing out that the deal looks a lot like foreign military sales, in which American defense firms sell to allies. Those deals are notoriously slow and cumbersome, given the months of negotiations it takes to reach an agreed-to contract. He noted however that 'countries may also accelerate transfers of their own weapons and be back-filled by USA supplies,' and that current weapons sales to allies is at a record pace, hitting $80.5 billion in preliminary agreements this year, 22 percent of which is tied to NATO members. The Inbox THE OTHER PEACE DEALS: In rattling off his frustrations with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN today, Trump hinted at some other U.S.-brokered peace deals that could be coming down the pike soon. In the Oval Office, Trump noted the administration's progress in securing a ceasefire between Congo and Rwanda last month. He also mentioned that there could be a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan imminently, potentially resolving the three-decade dispute between the two countries once and for all. 'We just seem to have Armenia and Azerbaijan. It looks like that's going to come to a conclusion — a successful conclusion,' Trump said. As for the Middle East, Trump identified a potential deal to help Egypt restore water flows of the Nile River. In the Gaza Strip, Trump sounded less optimistic but still celebrated the successes of special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, who was in the Oval Office for the meeting with Rutte. 'I think we could have something very soon,' Trump said. The likelihood of all these deals materializing in the near future is unclear. Ceasefire talks to end the war in the Gaza Strip are still ongoing, and Armenia and Azerbaijan have only agreed to resume bilateral engagements. WAR GAMES DOWN UNDER: The U.S. and Australia conducted war games alongside Indo-Pacific allies today and tested out the HIMARS long-range rocket system, in spite of increased disagreements between the two allies. As Reuters' Kirsty Needham reports, the test of the HIMARS system came as part of the 'Talisman Sabre' war games. During these exercises, the U.S., Australia, Japan, France, South Korea and Singapore held a live-fire exercise in northern Queensland and tested out U.S.-made F-35s and HIMARS systems. HIMARS have been in intense demand in both Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. The joint exercises are occurring as Pentagon policy chief ELBRIDGE COLBY has placed considerable pressure on U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, specifically Canberra and Tokyo, to telegraph more publicly what they would do if China invaded Taiwan in the near future. It also follows Colby's review of the AUKUS submarine pact with Australia and the United Kingdom. Australia has insisted it won't make any public commitments. 'The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day, not in advance but by the government of the day,' Australian Defense Industry Minister PAT CONROY said Sunday. PENTAGON PULLS OUT OF ASPEN: The top brass at DOD will no longer be participating in the Aspen Security Forum, Eric and our Felicia Schwartz report (for Pros!). Why the change? Pentagon spokesperson SEAN PARNELL said the conference's 'values do not align with the values of the DOD.' He argued the Aspen confab 'is not in alignment' with Trump administration goals to 'increase the lethality of our warfighters, revitalize the warrior ethos, and project Peace Through Strength on the world stage.' The move, first reported in conservative-leaning outlet Just the News, came the day before the conference was set to start. Initially, attendees were slated to include Navy Secretary JOHN PHELAN, Defense Intelligence Agency chief JEFF KRUSE, INDOPACOM Commander SAMUEL PAPARO and Space Command chief STEPHEN WHITING, among other top military brass and Pentagon officials. It's unclear if this move will trigger more withdrawals from the annual nonpartisan gathering. Guess who's not pulling out of Aspen? Your favorite national security newsletter! Eric will be on the ground, along with Felicia and Nahal Toosi, to bring you the highlights from the forum here and across our POLITICO coverage areas. Drop us some lines if you plan on being there too. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes GOP DOESN'T SAY HOLA, HUAWEI: A top Republican on Capitol Hill slammed reports that the Spanish government is entering into a contract with Huawei to use the Chinese tech giant's software in wiretap operations. House Intelligence Chair RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.) said today that 'Spain is playing with fire.' 'By leveraging a known agent of the CCP to collect and store insurmountable amounts of sensitive data, Spain has made itself vulnerable to clear threats to the security and sovereignty of not only itself but allies around the world,' Crawford said. Over the weekend, reports emerged that the Spanish government gave millions of dollars in contracts to Huawei. That news is surprising for a few reasons. For one, it bucks a general trend of U.S. allies ditching Huawei given its ties to Beijing. Moreover, it comes as Spain has tried to throw cold water on the Trump administration's goals of ramping up NATO defense spending. The Spanish Embassy in Washington did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The Complex GROK JOINS THE PENTAGON: X launched Grok for Government today — and announced it already has a major customer. The Pentagon issued a new contract for the ELON MUSK-owned artificial intelligence model's government product, the company announced on X today. Grok for Government will also be available for purchase by other government agencies as it is now part of the General Services Administration schedule of products. XAi joins OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in reaching contracts with the Pentagon. It will have a $200 million ceiling. The partnership suggests that Musk is no longer as internally toxic for the Trump administration as he was after leaving government and torching Trump's 'big, beautiful' spending bill. And two, the announcement follows reports that developers in a recent update allowed Grok to make antisemitic, racist, sexist and otherwise offensive comments. At one point, Grok offered X users tips on how to rape a Democratic policy thinker. European officials have raised the matter of Grok's antisemitic posts with X executives. Musk said that the new update of Grok was 'too compliant to user prompts. Too eager to please and be manipulated, essentially. That is being addressed.' On the Hill DEMS HONE CHINA MESSAGE: Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a long report today arguing that Trump's foreign policy has undercut U.S. strategy against China. The report says cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development and other U.S. foreign assistance bodies have hampered Washington's ability to outcompete China in Latin America, Asia and Africa. It also says disruptions to U.S. alliances — including AUKUS and NATO — and cuts to U.S. government broadcasters have weakened U.S. partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and the ability of the United States to compete in the 'information space' against Beijing-backed misinformation campaigns. The report comes as Democrats have looked to sharpen their messaging on Trump's foreign policy ahead of the 2026 midterms. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that former national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN met with Democrats on the House China Select Committee in February to help them strategize around bipartisan areas of collaboration. Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the committee, told reporters today that China is 'probably at the top of the list' of foreign policy priorities for Democrats going forward, though the committee will also continue to focus on other flashpoints like Ukraine and Sudan. A Democratic committee staffer, granted anonymity to speak freely about strategy moving forward, said that Democrats plan on raising the findings of the report in successive hearings and hammering home the point that Trump administration policy moves may be boosting, not stymying, China's competitive edge. Broadsides MALAYSIA MIFFED AT ADAMS: Conservative Muslim Malaysian lawmakers and officials are aghast at Trump's nomination of the Australian-born conservative commentator and self-described 'alpha male' NICK ADAMS to be the country's next U.S. ambassador. Adams qualifies for the role as an 'incredible patriot and very successful entrepreneur,' Trump said in announcing Adams' nomination. Malaysian lawmakers see it differently. 'Nick Adams is not a diplomat, not a statesman. He is merely an extreme right-wing propagandist, a Trumpist and vocal supporter of Israel's Zionist regime,' said MUS'AB MUZAHAR, a member of the Islamist Amanah party, the South China Post reported today. Other Malaysian officials piled on. Adams' 'extremist ideologies and divisive rhetoric' aren't welcome in Malaysia, said Parti Keadilan Rakyat's Youth International Relations Bureau chief ARIEF IZUADIN, per the Independent. 'Nick Adams is not just a controversial figure. He openly spreads hatred towards Islam and supports the Zionist colonial regime without consideration,' said MOHAMED SUKRI, the Malaysian Islamic Party youth chief in the state of Selangor,per The Star. Those officials were reacting to Adams' long history of inflammatory social media postings including his assertion last year that he pressured a restaurant owner to fire a server for wearing a 'Free Palestine' pin. The Malaysian government of Prime Minister ANWAR IBRAHIM hasn't officially commented on Adams' nomination. Transitions — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY tapped deputy prime minister and close ally YULIA SVYRYDENKO to be the country's next prime minister. Svyrydenko, who has been a main broker of the controversial U.S.-Ukraine critical minerals pact, will replace DENYS SHMYHAL, who has been in his post since 2020. — SCOTT PHILLIPS is now a member of the Aviation practice at Eckert Seamans. He previously was the resident legal officer for Central America and Mexico Programs at the U.S. Agency for International Development. What to Read — Jacopo Barigazzi, Nektaria Stamouli and Giorgio Leali, POLITICO: Italy and Greece sound the alarm over Libya. But allies aren't rushing to help. — Dexter Filkins, The New Yorker: Is the U.S. Ready for the Next War? — Michael Smetana, War on the Rocks: How Iran Overplayed its Hand Tomorrow Today — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:45 a.m.: U.S. Soft Power and Competition with China — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Drone Warfare and Securing America's Military Against Emerging Threats — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Surveillance, Sabotage, and Strikes: Industry Perspectives on How Drone Warfare Abroad Is Transforming Threats at Home — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Nominations of JOHN ARRIGO to be U.S. ambassador to Portugal; CHRISTINE TORETTI to be U.S. ambassador to Sweden; and MIKE WALTZ to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Full committee markup of the FY26 NDAA — House Foreign Affairs East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Breaking China's Chokehold on Critical Mineral Supply Chains — Arab Center, 11 a.m.: The Future of US-Syria Relations and the Implications of Lifting the Sanctions — Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: 'Rising Risks of Conflict in the Horn of Africa,' focusing on Ethiopia — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.:Book discussion on 'Total Defense: The New Deal and the Origins of National Security' — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: FY2026 State Department Posture: Management and Resources — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Countering Communist Cyborgs: China's Dystopian AI Ambitions and the Robotics Race — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 2 p.m.: 'Pakistan: Ongoing Political Repression,' focusing on 'Pakistan's persecution of opposition political figures and journalists, and its actions to control media communications and prevent free and fair elections in Pakistan.' — Aspen Institute, 7 p.m.: 2025 Security Forum Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, whose values are not aligned with ours.
Politico
11-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
RIFs come to roost at State
With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Felicia Schwartz and Zach Montellaro Subscribe here | Email Eric The State Department proceeded with long-expected staff cuts this morning, making good on one part of Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO's pledge to overhaul Foggy Bottom and root out what he alleges is inefficiency. As the secretary wrapped up his trip to Asia, employees received individual layoff notices signed by Global Talent Management chief LEW OLOWSKI, per State Department officials and staffers and documents seen by NatSec Daily. The full implications won't be clear for a while, but your hosts have a few takeaways: First, the number of actual cuts is lower than many expected. It'd been thought that more than 2,000 State Department employees would get pink slips, including 750 Foreign Service officers. According to an internal State Department memo, 1,107 civil servants and 246 foreign service officers were laid off today. That difference may be because so many State Department staff took advantage of the deferred resignation program. Overall, around 3,000 members of the workforce will be leaving, the memo said, suggesting more than 1,800 State Department employees opted to voluntarily depart. As expected, the bureaus hit hardest by the cuts included Energy Resources; Democracy, Human Rights and Labor; Population, Refugees and Migration; and Consular Affairs. So too were offices managing foreign assistance programs. But the staff reductions also affected more management divisions than initially expected. Notices went out to staff in the Bureau of Diplomatic Technology, the Bureau of the Comptroller and Global Financial Services, and the offices running the Foreign Service Internship Program and prestigious fellowships such as the Pickering, to name a few. Even some sections of the State Department that U.S. law requires be staffed — such as the Office of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts — were hit with layoffs. AfghanEvac's SHAWN VANDIVER, a major advocate for the resettlement of Afghan refugees who helped the U.S. during 20-year U.S. operations in the country, said in a message to reporters today that State fired the current acting coordinator of the office. Vandiver noted that State must name a coordinator to comply with federal laws providing for the resettlement. Your hosts are hearing that many people who were pushed out were considered high performers or had specialized skills like speaking multiple difficult languages. That may be because the layoffs appeared partly based on which office the staffer was in, as opposed to their skills or work history. This has felt especially unfair to Foreign Service staffers, who rotate offices every few years. Some people may have also been notified incorrectly that they were being laid off. Some State Department staffers received messages from Olowski that they erroneously were given notices due to 'an administrative error,' per copies of the messages seen by NatSec Daily, and that they are not losing their jobs. That indicates that even State, which has conducted a relatively orderly purge of staff, may encounter more hiccups down the line, and the total number may be different. Moreover, it seems like Democrats and supporters of fired State Department employees — unable to exert any direct pain on the administration for the restructure — are replicating the playbook used to protest the elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development. Ahead of the layoff, Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee called the move 'illegal' even after the Supreme Court green-lighted the cuts. This afternoon, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) will also join former State Department officials for a 'clap out' of fired employees. Finally, emotions, understandably, are raw within the department and are likely to stay that way for a while. Staffers weren't shy about expressing how they felt 'jerked around' by a leadership team they accuse of putting political interests above national interests. 'We are being run by incompetent, nihilistic, right-wing Maoists,' a fired staffer said. The staffer, like others NatSec Daily spoke to, was granted anonymity out of fear of further reprisals. At least one flier was posted in restrooms around the State Department urging remaining colleagues to 'resist fascism' and to 'remember the oath you vowed to uphold.' For its part, the State Department is defending the layoffs. At a press briefing today, spokesperson TAMMY BRUCE said cuts were made accounting for 'extensive feedback,' and she reiterated department leadership's commitment to the tens of thousands of employees who remain. In an X post, she also said the layoffs were necessary to 'make our work more efficient, nimble, and effective — making America safer, stronger and more prosperous.' The Inbox CRINK CLUES: Ukraine's military intelligence chief warned today that North Korea is now supplying as much as 40 percent of the ammunition Russia is using in its invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg's Daryna Krasnolutska and Olesia Safronova report. And that's not the only major contribution North Korea is making to the Russian war effort. In an interview with the outlet, KYRYLO BUDANOV said that North Korean leader KIM JONG UN is providing Moscow with ballistic missiles and artillery systems in exchange for cash and technology that's easing Pyongyang's international isolation. It's a sign of the deepening partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. And it comes as the U.S. teases some major action on Ukraine. President DONALD TRUMP said today 'you'll be seeing things happen' on Monday. That followed an interview late Thursday with NBC News in which Trump suggested a deal was in place with NATO to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles. MIGRANTS FOR BETTER RELATIONS? The Trump administration is indeed asking African nations to accept deportees from Venezuela as a way to improve relations with Washington, Nigeria's top diplomat said today. Per Reuters' Macdonald Dzirutwe, Nigerian Foreign Minister YUSUF TUGGAR told Nigerian television stations that 'the U.S. is mounting considerable pressure on African countries to accept Venezuelans to be deported from the U.S., some straight out of prison.' Tuggar also cautioned that Nigeria wasn't in a position to accommodate the U.S. request given its current domestic challenges. Tuggar's comments follow reports from The Wall Street Journal that the president asked the leaders of Mauritania, Gabon, Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia at a lunch in Washington on Wednesday whether they would accept deportees from the United States. And it's the latest sign of an increasing quid pro quo which countries beyond the Western Hemisphere are considering taking migrants as a way to appease Trump. Related: Global leaders' 'daddy' strategy: Flatter Trump to get close to the US by our colleague Nicole Markus BAD NUMBERS FOR DEMOCRATS: A poll from liberal-leaning group National Security Action contains some worrying numbers for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms: Voters aren't keen on the Trump administration's national security blunders, but they don't have much confidence in Democrats either. The poll finds that 58 percent of voters see Democrats in Congress as weak when it comes to U.S. national security. By contrast, just 45 percent of voters said the same of Trump. That disparity comes from the fact a large number of voters surveyed said they don't think Democrats are doing enough to stand up to Trump on national security issues. The poll by firm Hart Research surveyed 1,519 voters June 10-25 and has a 3 percent margin of error. Those numbers indicate that Democrats have a lot of convincing to do ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election on their national security strategy. But it also suggests a potential opportunity, given that plenty of Trump's foreign policy moves aren't popular. Forty-nine percent of voters said the president is making America less safe. And large majorities said they opposed firing women military officers and military officers of color from major leadership positions and purging intelligence analysts at odds with Trump's ideological direction. Voters also disapproved of Trump's handling of the war in Ukraine and his threats to seize Greenland and make Canada a U.S. state. RUBIO TEASES TRUMP-XI MEETING: Rubio emerged from his meeting with China's Foreign Minister WANG YI on the sidelines of the ASEAN East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur touting a looming summit in China between Trump and Chinese leader XI JINPING, our own Phelim Kine writes in. 'It's a visit he wants to undertake, and so we'll work on finding the right date for that, but I'm sure it'll happen because both presidents want it to happen,' Rubio told reporters today. Trump, the consummate self-styled dealmaker, has repeatedly stated his interest in meeting with Xi as a way to fast-track a U.S.-China trade deal. The Chinese leader resisted those overtures until he invited Trump to visit China during a call between the two leaders last month. Rubio didn't specify the timing for a possible Trump-Xi meeting but said 'the odds are high' that it will happen if the two sides can 'build the right atmosphere and the right deliverables,' per a separate State Department statement. That refers to ongoing efforts to resolve U.S.-China trade frictions that peaked in April when the two countries imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other's imports, effectively shutting down trade between the two countries. U.S.-China trade negotiators are now scrambling to seal a trade deal for lower tariffs and an easing on export restrictions by an Aug. 12 deadline. The earliest possible timing for a meeting between the two leaders is early September. Read: Rubio's 36-Hour Trip to Asia Left U.S. Allies Wanting More by The Wall Street Journal's Vera Bergengruen and Chun Han Wong DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring CHRISTOPHER LE MON, founder of strategic consulting firm Boulder Bridge Global who served as a deputy assistant secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor during the Biden administration. Le Mon tells us he's partial to a porter when he imbibes and named Black Butte, Right Proper Brewing's Häxan and Deschutes as his go-tos. 'Today, given the outrageous RIFs at State of my former colleagues, I'm pouring one out for the talent and commitment in DRL and across the department that the Trump administration is showing the door,' Le Mon said. We suspect you won't be alone this weekend, Christopher. IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes CYBERCOM 'CHAOS': First-term Rep. EUGENE VINDMAN (D-Va.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee's cyber panel, is on the hunt for answers on whether the agency briefly paused operations involving Russia earlier this year — and if so, why. Vindman told our colleague Maggie Miller in today's Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) that he's worried by what he labeled 'chaos' at the command, which has been without a Senate-confirmed leader since Trump fired commander Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH in April and has seen a departure of top talent. 'It's a tremendous amount of chaos and disorder throughout the department, throughout the national security establishment, the cuts to personnel, the lack of coordination on mission,' Vindman said. Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH denied this occurred when he testified at House Armed Services. But Cyber Subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said during a subcommittee hearing in May that he looked into the issue and confirmed there had been a one-day pause, which he called 'typical for negotiations.' The Complex SERVICES MAKE THEIR LISTS: The military services and combatant commands have outlined more than $48 billion in priorities that didn't make the cut for the Pentagon's budget request. The lists of unfunded priorities, which comes as lawmakers advance their annual defense spending and policy bills, show how the military would spend extra dollars and shape congressional additions to the final budget, our colleagues report in Morning Defense (for Pros!). This year's lists are especially striking, given the Trump administration's flat budget request — effectively a cut after inflation — relying on more than $150 billion from the GOP's megabill to boost spending. More munitions are a top priority for many services. The Air Force's $10 billion list is led by $4.15 billion for munitions, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM and the Joint Advanced Tactical Missile. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's whopping $11.8 billion wish list includes nearly $1 billion to fund standoff weapons and maritime strike munitions to deter China. The lists also propose funding to buy more aircraft. The Marine Corps is seeking more CH-53K King Stallions, F-35C fighters, KC-130Js and MQ-9A Reaper drones. And the National Guard has proposed over $1 billion for aircraft, including nine F-15EXs and six F-35s. On the Hill SENATORS MOVE TO RESTRICT TROOP REDUCTIONS: Bipartisan defense legislation approved this week by the Senate Armed Services Committee would throw up roadblocks should the Trump administration push to shrink the U.S. military footprint in Europe or on the Korean Peninsula. The National Defense Authorization Act blocks a reduction in U.S. force posture in Europe, or giving up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, until the Pentagon assesses the impact of those moves and certifies that doing so is in the national interest. The pushback follows warnings from Senate Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) against major shakeups to U.S. posture abroad without congressional buy-in, amid reports the Pentagon had eyed stepping back from NATO leadership in Europe and other moves. Rogers' version of the NDAA, set for a committee vote next week, also stymies a potential European drawdown. The Senate defense bill also features similar restrictions on drawing down U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula or changing wartime operational control over the Combined Forces Command. BUDGET BOOST: Senators also are using their defense policy bill to endorse a $32 billion hike to the defense budget, following through on criticism from Wicker and other defense hawks that the Trump administration's plan — keeping the Pentagon budget static while relying on $150 billion from Republicans' megabill to boost military programs — isn't enough to modernize and keep pace with China. That sets up a clash with the House, where GOP leaders stuck to the administration's overarching defense budget plans in both their NDAA and appropriations bill. Though the Senate Armed Services move is a key signal of support for more Pentagon funding, appropriators, who actually provide the money, will need to follow suit. There's a decent chance Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.), who now chairs the Senate Defense Appropriations panel and has criticized Trump's defense budget, will follow suit in his own bill. Broadsides DRAGGED AWAY: A prominent conservative group is praising the Pentagon for pulling Rear Adm. MICHAEL DONNELLY's promotion to vice admiral amid criticism of drag shows held aboard the USS Ronald Reagan during his command. The move came after Hegseth withdrew Donnelly's nomination in mid-June to lead the Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Japan, following his Senate confirmation. The Pentagon has said Hegseth is seeking a replacement for the key Pacific command. It's the latest example of the Trump administration's efforts to root out any overtures to the LGBTQ+ community within the ranks of the U.S. military. DOD Watch Executive Director NICOLE KIPRILOV called the decision 'a positive development,' accusing Donnelly of allowing 'sanctioned drag shows (with cash prizes)' that undermined military professionalism. Kiprilov is a Republican operative and strategist, and the group describes itself as dedicated to highlighting 'woke' trends and seeking a return to what it calls traditional values. 'The U.S. military is not a stage for political or cultural experimentation,' Kiprilov said in a statement. 'Commanders will be held responsible for promoting activities that compromise the dignity and mission focus of our warfighting institutions.' Donnelly is a veteran naval flight officer and former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Korea, with decades of operational and policy experience. Criticism of Donnelly's leadership surfaced in conservative circles after a 2018 NBC News story spotlighted a sailor who performed in drag aboard the carrier as part of morale-boosting events. The Pentagon declined to explain its rationale for withdrawing Donnelly. Transitions — The Washington Post is adding TARA COPP as a Pentagon correspondent and NOAH ROBERTSON to cover congressional national security committees. Copp was most recently a national security reporter at the AP. Robertson most recently was a Pentagon correspondent for Defense News. — Career diplomat JULIE EADEH is tipped to be next U.S. consul-general in Hong Kong, per the South China Morning Post. Eadeh met with pro-democracy activists in 2019, in an episode which was used by pro-Beijing actors to substantiate claims of 'foreign powers' at work in the territory during protests at the time. What to Read — Patrick Kingsley, Ronen Bergman and Natan Odenheimer, The New York Times: How Netanyahu Prolonged the War in Gaza to Stay in Power — Courtney Albon, Defense News: Hegseth calls for extensive reforms to Pentagon drone-buying practices — Jessica Donati, Reuters: How a U.S. mission to push a Trump deal in Congo unravelled Monday Today — The Hudson Institute, 3:30 p.m.: Next Steps in US-China Great Power Competition with the House Republican Policy Committee — House Rules Committee, 4 p.m.: Meeting on Fiscal 2026 Defense Appropriations Bill Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who cause 'a tremendous amount of chaos and disorder' for this newsletter.
Politico
25-06-2025
- Business
- Politico
Rutte stuck the landing — after some turbulence
Presented by With help from Phelim Kine, John Sakellariadis and Joe Gould Subscribe here Email Eric NATO Secretary-General MARK RUTTE ultimately succeeded in his main missions to mollify President DONALD TRUMP and raise the alliance's defense spending ambitions at this week's NATO summit in the Netherlands. The journey there just wasn't as seamless as he had hoped. For all of NATO's meticulous pre-summit planning to minimize potential conflict between alliance members, plenty of flashy moments still happened. First, Trump demurred when asked about the U.S. commitment to common defense, saying it depended 'on your definition.' Those comments put frontline NATO members in the Baltics and Scandinavia in particular in a tough spot. Then, Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO shocked alliance members by throwing cold water on the prospect of more sanctions against Moscow; the night before, he privately told foreign counterparts the Senate would take up a harsh bipartisan sanctions bill against Moscow after it passes Trump's 'big, beautiful' spending bill. Meanwhile, Rutte raised some eyebrows when he referred to Trump as 'daddy' when speaking to reporters. (Your Gen-Z host cringed when he heard that.) And that's not even getting into the main source of discord in The Hague this week — Spain's continued protest of the defense spending increase. When asked about Madrid's defense spending tantrum, Trump said, 'We're going to make them pay twice as much,' suggesting that Spain could get hit with tariffs if it doesn't change course. But Rutte still managed to get the alliance to agree to Trump's desired five percent of GDP spending target, and the U.S. also agreed to language restating that the alliance's commitment to common defense is 'ironclad.' The Heritage Foundation's NILE GARDINER argued to NatSec Daily that the summit was a win for U.S. strategic interests and also showed Rutte's prowess in working with the president. 'It's a triumph for President Trump. But it's a very good summit as well for' Rutte, Gardiner said. 'He is, alongside Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI, right now the influential European figure in partnering with Trump.' Of course, not everyone was thrilled with what they saw this week in The Hague. In a lengthy X post, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS ripped into Rutte and the summit outcomes, accusing the NATO chief of groveling before Trump and criticizing the president for making ambiguous statements on common defense. Landsbergis also wasn't impressed with the five percent commitment or the scant focus on Ukraine at this year's confab. TORREY TAUSSIG, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Europe and NATO policy official at the Defense Department and National Security Council, told NatSec Daily that this summit was 'a moderate success.' And she said that compared to the 2018 one in Brussels, where Trump blasted Germany as a 'captive of Russia' and physically shoved other NATO leaders, it went well. Yet Taussig argues that in pleasing Trump, the alliance did sidestep important conversations — not just about Ukraine, but also about the alliance's relationship with Indo-Pacific partners and the threats posed by China. 'In that way, this summit actually sets the alliance back on strengthening its deterrence and defense to address these issues,' said Taussig. 'It wasn't a disappointment. I just think there's a lot of hard work and a lot of open questions that allies are going to have to address in the months and years ahead.' The Inbox FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A MAJOR WORRY ABOUT MINORS: U.S. diplomats have grown alarmed by the possibility that the Trump administration's new social media visa vetting requirements could endanger minors, a State Department official tells Nahal. The new standards direct consular officials to examine the social media accounts of people who apply for visas for all student and educational exchange programs. They also require that the foreigners applying for such visas make their social media accounts public, and there's no exceptions for age — so, for example, a 15-year-old applying for a visa to serve as a summer camp counselor in the U.S. would be required to make their account public. In a virtual session today with STUART WILSON, a top official in State's consular affairs bureau, diplomats raised concerns that the requirement could expose minors to predators online. (Nahal saw screenshots of several diplomats' questions about this.) But Wilson said there would be no age-based exceptions and that a 'visa is not a right,' according to the State official, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. When asked for comment about the potential impact on minors, department spokespeople sent a statement that did not address that question but restated talking points about how the vetting process is intended to protect U.S. national security. Wilson did not respond to a request for comment. DAMAGED ASSESSMENTS: Months? Years? Decades? The Trump administration and other parties are sending wildly mixed messages about exactly how far back U.S. airstrikes pushed Iran's nuclear program. According to reports, a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency assessment concluded that the strikes had set back Iran's program by only a few months. That undercut the Trump administration's claim that the strikes had 'obliterated' the program. The White House stridently dismissed the DIA assessment, even issuing a statement attacking CNN, which broke the story, with the subject line: 'CNN Spews Fake News Based on Leaked Low-Confidence Intel.' While at the NATO summit today, Trump said the Iran program was set back 'basically decades' and compared the situation to the end of World War II (an odd parallel given that the U.S. used nuclear weapons then, not tried to prevent their existence). Rubio, speaking to our own Dasha Burns, used more measured language, saying the damage was 'substantial' and that Iran is 'much further away' from obtaining a nuclear weapon than before the strikes. Israeli officials, meanwhile, weighed in and said Iran's program was set back 'years.' The bottom line: No one really knows — probably not even the Iranians, who are still digging out the rubble. Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear program was intended for peaceful purposes, although U.S. officials have long been worried that it has the components and knowledge it needs to quickly weaponize its program. Trump also said today that the U.S. and Iran would hold talks 'next week.' He offered few details but suggested he didn't expect the talks to produce a new nuclear agreement. IRAN'S OTHER TARGETS: Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) is urging the Justice Department to re-up security protections for former Trump aides on Tehran's hit list, amid worries that Iran could still seek retribution for U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites. 'There were some terminations of protective details of people that were targeted for assassination by the Iranians because of the role they played in the first term,' Graham told Attorney General PAM BONDI during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday. 'I'd urge you to reconsider.' Graham and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) have both called on Trump to reverse his decision in January to pull back protection for former officials under active threat from Iran. But Graham's comments Wednesday mark the first time he's revisited the issue since the U.S. and Iran clashed directly. In the exchange with Bondi, Graham argued the threat from Iran remained 'pretty high' despite a shaky ceasefire deal with Israel reached Monday. He called out the threat to Trump's former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO, though at least four other senior Trump aides are also in Iran's crosshairs. The U.S. intelligence community believes Iranian assassins are also after Trump's former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON, former Secretary of Defense MARK ESPER, former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff MARK MILLEY and the former special envoy to Iran BRIAN HOOK. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes DANGER SIGNAL: Hackers suspected of having links to Russian military intelligence are reportedly using the Signal messaging app to deliver malware to Ukrainian government bodies. Ukrainian cybersecurity officials have discovered that at least two new malware strains are being used in these attacks. One, called BeardShell, acts as a backdoor that can execute PowerShell scripts. The other, SlimAgent, involves capturing encrypted screenshots. The use of Signal to deliver the malware is especially alarming because the encrypted app is so widely used. The Complex ANOTHER HEGSETH PURGE? Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH says the Pentagon is trying to hunt down who leaked the classified Defense Intelligence Agency report on damage from U.S. airstrikes in Iran, our own Paul McLeary reports from The Hague. 'We're doing a leak investigation with the FBI right now because this information is for internal purposes, battle damage assessments,' Hegseth said while at the NATO Summit today. He alleged media accounts of the assessment were spun 'to make the president look bad when this was an overwhelming success.' Hegseth gave no details about the leak probe, but he did say the conclusions of the DIA assessment were categorized as 'low confidence.' It's consistent with Hegseth's pledge to root out leakers and disloyal figures within the Defense Department, in particular those who divulge sensitive intelligence assessments that could undermine the administration's public messaging. On a related note, Axios' Marc Caputo reports that the Trump administration is looking to limit the amount of classified information it shares with Congress following the leak. Officials suggested that it may have happened because the assessment was posted late Monday to CAPNET, a system the administration uses to share classified information with Congress. 'Go figure: Almost as soon as we put the information on CAPNET, it leaks,' an administration official told Axios. 'There's no reason to do this again.' On the Hill NAVY BUDGET UNDERWATER: There are bipartisan worries in the Senate that the Navy's budget is falling short, our own Joe Gould reports (for Pros!). Lawmakers are especially worried about increasing operational demands, delayed submarines and a dwindling missile stockpile. Navy Secretary JOHN PHELAN and acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. JAMES KILBY drew questions about these topics Tuesday from Senate budget appropriators, suggesting there's support in both parties to increase the Navy's budget in the coming year. Top Senate Defense appropriator Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) joined Democrats and Appropriations Chair SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) in taking the officials to task. 'A fiscal '26 defense top line that doesn't keep pace with inflation, let alone with the pacing threat of [China], does not show that we're serious about the tasks that are before us,' McConnell said. 'Neither does pretending that one-time injections of funding are a substitute for consistent appropriation.' Broadsides DEMS GRILL LAKE OVER MEDIA CUTS: Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee took KARI LAKE, a senior Trump appointee, to task in a hearing today about cuts to the U.S. Agency for Global Media, including at Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. Trump had asked Lake to implement his executive order in March that called for the agency to be 'eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.' That has reduced USAGM's workforce by 85 percent and slashed its outlets' broadcasting services. 'We should not be dismantling the agency that combats propaganda from the Chinese Communist Party, the Kremlin and Tehran. Especially now, we need to be able to have facts that counter Iranian media spin that is essential to America's long-term interests,' said Rep. GREG STANTON (D-Ariz.). Rep. JULIE JOHNSON (D-Texas) brought a diagram to the hearing juxtaposing Lake's comments characterizing Voice of America as 'propaganda' with similar diatribes from the Chinese government. But Lake defended her moves, asserting, for instance, that VOA was 'rotten to the core' and a 'crime scene.' She accused USAGM of giving its personnel 'high-level security access based on falsified documents and incomplete background checks, phony names, phony social security numbers.' She also alluded to an ongoing police investigation of 'a series of threatening phone calls' allegedly targeting an unnamed sitting member of Congress that originated from VOA. GOP committee members praised Lake's cuts. 'USAGM embraced and regurgitated enemy propaganda. It became a mouthpiece for our adversaries, paid for again by your tax dollars, and we're here to say that the grift is over,' committee Chair Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) said. Transitions — NICHOLAS KASS, a former career intelligence official and Trump booster, will take over as acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, our own John Sakellariadis scoops. — EDWARD 'BIG BALLS' CORISTINE, one of ELON MUSK's proteges in the Department of Government Efficiency who helped downsize or dismantle multiple agencies, has left the federal government, Wired reports. What to Read — Jennifer Kavanagh and Rosemary Kelanic, Foreign Affairs: The Real Obstacle to Peace With Iran — Matteo Maillard, The Africa Report: Wagner's red room: How Russian mercenaries flaunt their crimes on Telegram — Julian Zelizer, Foreign Policy: What Happened to the War Powers Act? Tomorrow Today — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: The Future of NATO Defense, Resilience, and Allied Innovation — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Assessing the Terror Threat Landscape in South and Central Asia and Examining Opportunities for Cooperation — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan — Arab Center, 12 p.m.: The U.S. Role in Israel's War on Iran: Regional and Global Implications — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12:30 p.m.: Does the West Still Exist? Reflections on the NATO and G7 Summits — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: The U.S., Iran and Israel: Can Crisis be Turned Into Opportunity? Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, whose battlefield assessments are always incomplete and confusing.
Politico
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Trump's ceasefire hinges on Israel
Presented by With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The fate of the ceasefire President DONALD TRUMP announced Monday that ended 12 days of deadly strikes between Israel and Iran will depend on whether Israel can keep from attacking its longtime foe in the region, analysts and former officials say. Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire within hours of it taking effect, and Trump has expressed frustration with both countries. Before leaving for the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump tugged at the tension: 'We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing.' Much of Trump's anger was directed toward the United States' closest Middle East ally. En route to the NATO summit, he sent a separate Truth Social missive to Israel saying that any bombing would be a 'MAJOR VIOLATION.' And he directly spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in what was a reportedly tense conversation. MONA YACOUBIAN, who leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, argued to NatSec Daily that the fate of this 'shaky ceasefire' will come down to Trump's ability to keep pressure on Israel to refrain from striking Iran. Trump is already using the goodwill he's earned with the Israelis after ordering the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities to keep Israel in compliance. 'We've already seen evidence of it now … with the president getting on the phone and saying to the Israelis: 'Stand down,'' she explained. At least for now, it appears that both countries are committed to the deal. Iranian leaders have vowed today that the country will not strike Israel first, seemingly throwing the ball back in Israel's court. Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN said today that the 'imposed' war was over. Meanwhile, Trump walked back some flirtation with support for regime change in Iran as a gesture to Tehran. Netanyahu issued a statement insisting that Israel had 'refrained from additional attacks' after the conversation with Trump and clarified that its action was taken in response to an Iranian strike that began just before the ceasefire took effect. But MICHAEL SINGH, who was senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council during the GEORGE W. BUSH administration, cautions that the ceasefire creates a 'huge strategic challenge for Israel.' 'For Israel, the risk is you have to sit and watch as some targets appear that you would have wanted to strike, but now can't,' Singh said. 'Maybe they have to watch as Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program,' he continued. 'And they have to now put a lot of trust and hope in the United States to be able to deliver some kind of diplomatic agreement that preserves the gains that you have made militarily.' Considering the head of Iran's atomic energy agency told an Iranian state media outlet today that there will be 'no hiatus' on its nuclear program, Israel may need a lot of trust and hope. The Inbox TRUMP'S FLIGHT LOGS: Trump had a long flight from the United States to the Netherlands today, which gave him time to throw some punches at the alliance ahead of the NATO summit. Aboard Air Force One, Trump equivocated on whether he'd uphold NATO's Article Five commitment for collective defense. He told reporters that it 'depends on your definition.' 'There are numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right? But I'm committed to being their friends.' He added he would provide 'an exact definition when I get there. I just don't want to do it on the back of an airplane.' Trump also posted on Truth Social a graphic highlighting Spain's protests to the five percent of GDP spending target the alliance is pursuing. That post came as other alliance members bristled over Spain (and Slovakia) launching last-minute protests before the confab. On top of all that, Trump shared screenshots on Truth Social of very adulatory messages from NATO chief MARK RUTTE ahead of the conference. MARK YOUR CALENDARS: As the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague comes to a close, join POLITICO's top U.S. and European defense reporters for a live, on-the-ground debrief for Pros breaking down what really happened — and what it means for the future of the alliance. We'll dig into the key outcomes from the summit, including rising tensions over burden-sharing, the push to increase defense spending across member states, new commitments on Ukraine and the alliance's eastern front and the evolving strategy on deterrence and defense in the face of Russian aggression. Our reporters will also explore behind-the-scenes dynamics among leaders, debates over NATO expansion and the alliance's role in addressing emerging threats. The conversation will be moderated by our own Deputy Managing Editor for Global Security Dave Brown and feature analysis from our own Paul McLeary, Felicia Schwartz, Nick Vinocur and Chris Lunday. The briefing will take place at 4 p.m. Washington time Wednesday. A DUAL-USE CEASEFIRE: Trump is using the ceasefire between Iran and Israel as a leverage point in trade negotiations with China. As our own Ben Lefebvre, Phelim, Megan Messerly and Daniel Desrochers report, Trump is arguing on social media that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a boon not just for stability in the region, but also for China amid ongoing trade talks. China, he suggests, benefits from the fact that Iran won't block the Strait of Hormuz now in response to the U.S. strikes. It's the clearest sign that Trump sees the United States' role as a world peacekeeper as something that merits compensation, a point he has emphasized to allies across the globe. Still, it's unclear if it'll move the needle for the complex trade talks between Washington and Beijing. PURGING MORE DIPLOMATS? The Trump administration this week quietly changed personnel guidelines in ways that appear to make it easier to lay off U.S. diplomats depending on whether they're based in a particular office, as opposed to their performance or skills. The convoluted changes are laid out in the Foreign Affairs Manual, and they seem designed to help cut diplomats based in the United States, such as at the State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom. This and related moves by the Trump team have infuriated the American Foreign Service Association — the diplomats' union — which the administration is trying to strip of bargaining rights. In a statement, AFSA warned that the department can now 'purge an entire domestic office while giving lip service to factors such as employee evaluations, veterans' status and language ability.' Such a move runs counter to longstanding rules that have a more holistic approach to evaluating diplomats, who rotate into new offices every few years. Spokespeople for the State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes HOLLAND HIT WITH CYBERATTACKS: The Netherlands' National Cyber Security Centre is blaming a pro-Russian hacktivist group for a wave of distributed denial-of-service attacks targeting a dozen Dutch organizations, including several municipalities. Our colleague ANTOANETA ROUSSI reports that the center pointed to the pro-Russian hacktivist group NoName057(16), which claimed the attacks. The group has targeted other NATO countries, including Belgium and Romania, in the past year with such DDoS attacks. The attacks coincide with the NATO summit in The Hague and appear aimed at sowing confusion and stretching the capacity of public sector institutions involved in organizing the event. The Complex FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — VETERANS' HARM MITIGATION CONCERN: Veterans' advocacy groups are asking the Pentagon to refrain from cutting the Defense Department's efforts to respond to harm against civilians in conflict zones. In a letter shared first with NatSec Daily, the groups Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, Minority Veterans of America, Veterans for Peace and the Secure Families Initiative, among others, call on Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH to protect servicemembers from the trauma that civilian harm creates by preserving those programs. 'Our nation's service members deserve the tools to prevent costly mistakes. Too many veterans carry the invisible wounds of war, including moral injury and psychological trauma resulting from unintentional harm to civilians during operations,' the groups wrote. 'We urge you to maintain and strengthen the U.S. military's civilian harm mitigation initiatives, including ensuring the critical staffing and resourcing at the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence and across the military.' On the Hill IRAN CANCELLATIONS: Planned House and Senate briefings on the Trump administration strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities were rescheduled for Thursday, per our colleagues Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney and Nicholas Wu. Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER called the postponement 'outrageous, evasive and derelict.' And it's not the only change in plans on the Hill today. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) is backing off on his War Powers resolution, Punchbowl News reported this morning, with Massie telling the outlet that 'it might not be necessary if there's no hostilities. The resolution is to withdraw or end hostilities.' A competing War Powers resolution introduced by Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) and ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) can't come to the floor until mid-July, meaning Democrats' ability to hold the Trump administration to the fire is limited. DEMS' NEW NATSEC TASK FORCE: House Democratic Caucus Chair PETE AGUILAR of California announced that his party is launching a new national security task force, in a clear sign they're looking to bolster their messaging on the issues ahead of the 2026 election. Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), a former Army Ranger who serves on both the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees, will chair the task force. Its members will include Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.), MAGGIE GOODLANDER (D-N.H.) and DEREK TRAN (D-Calif.). All its members have served in the U.S. military or held national security roles before entering electoral politics. The move comes as Democrats look to recruit candidates with national security credentials to run in competitive 2026 races as a way to win back control of Congress and build their bench of political talent across the country. Broadsides THAILAND-CAMBODIA BORDER BLOCK: Worsening frictions between Thailand and Cambodia have prompted Bangkok to seal its land borders to traffic to and from its Southeast Asian neighbor. Thailand's seven border provinces have closed crossing points — which are arteries for trade and tourism between the two countries — to anyone besides people seeking medical treatment and students, the Bangkok Post reported today. That follows Cambodia's Prime Minister HUN MANET's move Sunday to block imports of oil and gas from Thailand. Those tit for tat provocations mark an escalation in tensions between the two countries sparked by a deadly firefight between their military forces last month in a disputed border region. The tensions tee up potential conflict in Southeast Asia at a time when China has looked to flex its muscle in the region. Beijing has also deepened its historically tight ties with Phnom Penh in recent years, and it's unclear whether the U.S. may try to position itself as a broker between the two countries. Transitions — ALEX ENTZ has been detailed to the White House to be a director for international economics at the National Economic Council. He most recently was an international economist in the Africa office of the Treasury Department. — LORRIE KING is now deputy chief of staff at the Office of the National Cyber Director. She most recently was vice president of operations and chief of staff at Growth Energy. — STEVEN SCHLEIEN is now acting deputy Defense secretary for defense continuity and mission assurance. He continues as acting deputy Defense secretary for Arctic and global resilience. — JULIA TRENT is now director in Ervin Graves Strategy Group's defense, aerospace and cybersecurity practice group. She most recently was deputy director of member services and chief clerk for the House Veterans' Affairs Committee. — ARIELLA CAMERA is joining the Healthcare Distribution Alliance as senior director of policy. She previously was the deputy director of primary health care at the U.S. Agency for International Development. What to Read — Daniel DePetris, MSNBC: How Trump took advantage of Iran's face-saving retaliation strategy — ANTONY BLINKEN, The New York Times: Trump's Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds. — LLOYD AUSTIN, The Financial Times: Europe should not go it alone on defense Tomorrow Today — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 9 a.m.: Algorithms and Authoritarians: Why U.S. AI Must Lead — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: 'America First' in a Changing World — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Spies, Lies, and Mismanagement: Examining the U.S. Agency for Global Media's Downfall — Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: The Future of U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Conflict — Atlantic Council and Harvard University Law School's International Human Rights Clinic, 10 a.m: 'Airstrikes and Atrocities: A Legal Assessment of Russia's Aerial Campaign in Ukraine' — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Advancing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal — Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program, 2 p.m.: Searching for peace in post-Qaddafi Libya — Israel Policy Forum, 2 p.m.: Assessing the War in Iran — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 3 p.m.: Open hearing on nominations Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who must refrain from striking us constantly.
Politico
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Iran's nuclear Rorschach test
With help from John Sakellariadis, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Programming note: We'll be off this Thursday but will be back in your inboxes on Friday. Is Iran close to developing a nuclear weapon with its vast stockpiles of highly enriched uranium? The answer depends on who you ask. Israeli officials insist that new intelligence, shared with the United States, indicates that Iran was racing to build a nuclear weapon. Their U.S. counterparts are less convinced. In March, Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD told lawmakers that 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,' in line with previous assessments shared under the Biden administration. So, which is true? Former U.S. intelligence officials said that two people could be looking at the same intelligence and reach different conclusions as to Iran's intent. 'Unless there is a smoking gun, everything is fragmentary and has to be put together,' said a former senior U.S. intelligence official. The former senior official, like others quoted, was granted anonymity to speak freely about the intelligence analysis process. Assessments also tend to get very technical very fast when talking about Iran's nuclear program. Tehran already has two of the three ingredients needed to deliver a nuclear weapon: missiles that could deliver a devastating nuclear warhead to its target and ample quantities of highly enriched uranium. Gabbard testified in March that Iran has unprecedented levels of enriched uranium for a country that is not a nuclear power. The third component requires advanced scientific and technical know-how to get highly enriched uranium to explode and create a sustained nuclear reaction. What Iran is capable of and looking to do in this arena is where much of the debate plays out. It's also the part of the process that's fiendishly difficult for foreign intelligence agencies to keep tabs on, as it can be masked as scientific research. 'The nightmare scenario for the last decade is that Iran makes us think that they have stopped work on the weaponization piece, and have found a way to do that completely clandestinely,' said a second former senior intelligence official. Intelligence analysis is an art, not a science. While Gabbard's topline assessment from March still stands, there is plenty of debate within America's spy agencies about Iran's intentions, a person familiar with the matter told NatSec Daily. Some parts of the intelligence community, the White House and Capitol Hill believe it's a matter of semantics, the person said, noting that Iran has all of the key components for a nuclear weapons program, even if it has not been formally described as such. That debate played out in the open on Tuesday when President DONALD TRUMP dismissed Gabbard's remarks in March. 'I don't care what she said,' Trump said. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.' 'There's a tug of war going on over in the White House,' Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Eric on Tuesday afternoon. Trump is hearing from both supporters and opponents of military intervention, Kaine argued, 'and that explains why his own comments tend to go back and forth.' For now, Washington is waiting for Trump to decide what to do with all the information presented to him, including whether to strike Iran. The president told reporters today, 'I may do it. I may not do it.' 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do,' he said. The Inbox HYPERSONIC SHOW: Iran launched hypersonic missiles at Israel today, the first time the high-power weapon has been used in the most recent volley of airstrikes between the two countries. Amid the escalation, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem announced it is organizing evacuations of American citizens, Eric reports. WONG'S NEXT MOVE: Former deputy national security adviser ALEX WONG is expected to join the President's Intelligence Advisory Board, two people familiar with the move told our own John Sakellariadis. The move indicates that Wong — who was ousted from his National Security Council role last month amid the fallout over top officials using the messaging app Signal to discuss military strikes in Yemen — still maintains close ties to the Trump administration. While low-profile, the PIAB has previously weighed in on hot-button intelligence policy topics, like the reauthorization of a key foreign spy power under JOE BIDEN. It is currently headed by former Republican Rep. DEVIN NUNES, along with other close Trump allies. A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on Wong's potential move. THE MARSHAL MEETS TRUMP: Pakistani Army chief ASIM MUNIR had lunch with Trump at the White House today — a rare occurrence that suggests the Trump administration is looking to mend fences with Islamabad. The president opting to meet with any foreign military leader is rare, let alone a foreign military leader who is not currently the head of government or head of state of a U.S. ally. Pakistan's ties with Washington have also waned in recent years as the United States has pursued greater cooperation with India as a way to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, the timing of the lunch is auspicious. Pakistan, which borders Iran, would be a critical player in any broader conflict with Iran as a potential entrepot for supplies and weapons for either side. And Pakistan's growing ties with China have led some Iran watchers to warn that Beijing could use Pakistan's territory as a way to funnel resources to Tehran in the event of a longer-term conflict with the United States and Israel. KELLOGG'S MINSK MISSION: While the administration is mostly focusing on the Middle East these days, Ukraine special envoy KEITH KELLOGG is meeting with Belarusian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO, our own Felicia Schwartz reports. The overture to the leader of Russia's satellite state is surprising. But it signals the administration's desire to keep lines open with Moscow. Reuters' Gram Slattery and Humeyra Pamuk were the first to report on the planned meeting. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes TAKES A SIDE: A Chinese government-linked influence effort online is working to spread the narrative that Iran is the dominant force in the conflict between Tehran and Israel, according to a new report from social network analysis company Graphika. As our own Maggie Miller writes in, Graphika researchers found that influence groups online tied to the Chinese government began almost immediately posting content on Western and Chinese social media platforms after the Israeli attack on Iran last week, promoting narratives on Iran winning the war. These include promoting an artificial intelligence-generated video on X that gives evidence of a successful destructive missile attack on Israel, and Chinese state-linked media posting reports that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU had fled to Greece during the strikes. Cyberattacks are also an increasing concern as the conflict continues, and U.S. critical infrastructure owners and operators are on high alert for a surge in Iranian-linked retaliatory attacks, as Maggie reported late Tuesday night. The Complex GRILLING HEGSETH: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH faced tough questions from both Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee today about U.S. military plans for conflict with Iran, the deployment of the U.S. military to Los Angeles amid protests and the Pentagon's budget request. Testifying alongside Joint Chiefs Chair DAN CAINE, the Pentagon chief declined to comment on conversations within the administration about striking Iran. Hegseth also defended the military's deployment to Los Angeles and blasted appeals courts' efforts to limit 'national security policy.' He also faced questions from Sen. Tim Kaine about the renaming of several military bases that previously honored Confederate generals. Republicans weren't keen to give the Pentagon chief too many lifelines during the hearing. Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) took Hegseth to task for the Pentagon's budget request, saying it 'leads me to question whether some officials in the administration plan to ignore congressional intent.' Related: Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon's plans for Iran by our own Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUKUS ENHANCEMENTS EFFORTS: Lawmakers are looking to help Australia and the U.K. avoid defense manufacturing restrictions as part of the AUKUS pact. Sens. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) and Kaine introduced the AUKUS Improvement Act today, which would exempt the administration from needing to tell Congress about overseas manufacturing if it involves Australia and the U.K. The bill also lifts a requirement that the State Department grant Third Party Transfer approval for any foreign military sales to State Department-vetted entities that have been approved as AUKUS Authorized Users. The bill has a good chance of becoming law. AUKUS enjoys widespread bipartisan support and the administration reaffirmed its commitment to the pact to build submarines with the two U.S. allies after meeting with British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER at the G7 summit this week. Related: EU and Australia to negotiate security and defense partnership by our colleague Giorgio Leali On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — KILLING CAESAR (ACT): Two lawmakers are teaming up to sink a law that helped isolate the regime of former Syrian dictator BASHAR ASSAD to encourage the new government in Damascus to join its camp. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) introduced a bill today that would repeal the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposed economic sanctions on Syria. Their bill would remove broad-based sanctions, while preserving some of the provisions in U.S. law that would allow Washington to hold Syrian officials accountable for future human rights abuses. Shaheen told NatSec Daily that 'we can keep the new Syrian authorities accountable without decimating the economy' and praised Trump's special envoy to Syria, Ambassador TOM BARRACK, for using diplomacy to yield 'tremendous results.' 'We must do everything we can to support the Syrian people's aspirations for democracy, stability and security,' she said. The bill is likely to pass, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pushed the Trump administration in recent months to relax sanctions against Damascus and encouraged the White House's outreach towards Syria's new leader AHMED AL-SHARAA. Broadsides CARLSON CHEWS OUT CRUZ: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), one of the leading GOP advocates for a military intervention against Iran's nuclear program, sat down with conservative commentator TUCKER CARLSON for an interview. And Cruz didn't pass Carlson's pop quiz about Iran. As our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports, Carlson launched a softball at Cruz, asking how many people live in Iran. Cruz didn't know the answer and Carlson took him to task about it: 'You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple? How could you not know that?' When Cruz shot back that he doesn't 'sit around memorizing population tables,' Carlson got frustrated and proceeded to ask him more specific questions about Iran's demographics. 'You don't know anything about Iran,' Carlson said, as the two men began yelling over each other. 'You're a senator who is calling for the overthrow of the government and you don't know anything about the country!' The fiery exchange underscores the deep divisions within the Republican Party over the Trump administration's moves in Iran. Transitions — The president is tapping Adm. DARYL 'HONEY BADGER' CAUDLE to be the next chief naval officer. Caudle, a career submariner, is currently the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces. He was seen as a leading contender to replace Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, whom Trump removed from her post earlier this year. The president also nominated Marine Gen. CHRISTOPHER MAHONEY, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, to be Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs. Both will face Senate confirmation before the Armed Services Committee. — Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK announced today she's running for Congress as a Democrat in Michigan's Seventh Congressional District. She'll be looking to unseat Rep. TOM BARRETT (R-Mich.) in what's expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive House races of the 2026 cycle. — Career U.S. intelligence official ADAM JONES is now the National Security Council's senior director for intelligence, three people familiar with the personnel move told John. Jones will fill an influential White House post previously held by BRIAN WALSH, who was ousted this April after Trump's Oval Office meeting with right-wing activist LAURA LOOMER. Jones joined the NSC in recent weeks, according to the three people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters. A White House spokesperson declined to comment. — TODD BENSMAN is now a senior adviser to border czar TOM HOMAN. He most recently was a senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies. What to Read — Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil, POLITICO: State Department unveils social media screening rules for all student visa applicants — Richard Nephew, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won't make the Iranian nuclear threat go away — Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Affairs: How Iran Lost Friday Today — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Iran-Israel War: Update on the Israeli Campaign, Iranian Nuclear Program and the Civilian Toll — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Addressing China's Growing Influence in Colombia — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Getting Started: The New Lee Jae-myung Government — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: The Bigger Picture in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Russia, Missiles, Militias, and More Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who should not be named to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board.
