Latest news with #NationalBureauofStatistics
India.com
11 hours ago
- Business
- India.com
Nigeria's Economy Swells Overnight After GDP Update – But What's Really Behind It?
New Delhi: It is not a magic, but it might look like it. Nigeria's economy just expanded by nearly a third on paper. The sudden growth did not come from a surge in exports or an oil windfall. It came from a long-overdue recalculation of how the country measures its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After more than a decade, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has finally updated the base year it uses for its GDP figures, moving it from 2010 to 2019. The result? The official size of Nigeria's economy has jumped by around 30%, from $187.76 billion to $244 billion. That change has pushed the country's GDP to 372.82 trillion in local currency (naira). This recalibration is not a local event. It is significant for a continent where economic data is often outdated or incomplete. In Africa's economic rankings, the shift places Nigeria as the fourth-largest economy, behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. So What Changed? What prompted this major statistical shift? In simple terms, Nigeria updated its economic model to reflect changes in its economy over the past decade. The old base year did not account for entire sectors that now drive modern life, which has digital services, pensions and the informal labour force that employs the majority of Nigerians. 'It is the most comprehensive rebasing we have ever done. We are now measuring digital activity, pension fund administration and informal work, which over 90% of our population is part of,' said Adeyemi Adeniran, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), during a press briefing in Abuja. Economist Michael Famoroti from Lagos-based Stears described the timing as 'necessary'. The rebasing, according to him, offers a clearer image of how Nigeria's economy has evolved. 'The structure is shifting. Agriculture still leads the pack in terms of output, and oil now contributes barely 5%,' he said. Benefits and Cautions More than numbers, it is about perception. One of the biggest side effects of the rebasing is a healthier-looking debt-to-GDP ratio. Before the change, Nigeria's public debt stood at 52% of the GDP. Now, it sits around 40%, right in line with the government's self-imposed threshold and below the 55% limit generally advised by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). On paper, this is good news. But experts warn it could give a false sense of security. 'The improved ratio may make the government feel more comfortable taking on more debt. But the underlying issues have not disappeared. The debt is still there,' Famoroti said. Currency Struggles, Economic Realities While the updated GDP figure is a statistical win, Nigeria's currency tells a different story. Since President Bola Tinubu adjusted the exchange rate last year to attract investment and reflect market reality, the naira has lost over 70% of its value against the U.S. dollar. This devaluation cost Nigeria its title as Africa's largest economy in 2023. While helpful, the rebasing has not been enough to reclaim the top spot. Senegal Eyes Similar Move Amid Debt Woes Nigeria is not alone in revisiting its economic metrics. Last week, Senegal's finance ministry said it would also rebase its GDP for the first time since 2018. The announcement comes amid a financial scandal involving hidden debts that may exceed the country's current economic size. Bank of America analysts highlighted that, just like Nigeria, a rebasing could help improve Senegal's debt-to-GDP ratio and investor confidence provided the underlying economic performance stays strong. Since the announcement, Senegal's dollar bonds have shown signs of recovery. Still, the IMF has paused a planned bailout as it waits for the results of an investigation into billions of dollars in misreported debt. How Recalculation Works, And Why It Matters Think of GDP rebasing like updating a scale. If you measured your height with a stick from 10 years ago, you would miss some growth. Nigeria simply swapped out its 2010 measuring stick for a more recent 2019 version. To explain this, let us use a local example. Imagine tomatoes cost 5 naira per kilo in 2010 and 20 naira in 2020. Using 2010 as the base year, prices appear to have jumped 4x. But if you base it on 2015, when tomatoes cost 8 naira, then the price increase is just 2.5x. The shift in perspective can dramatically change how economic growth looks on paper. That is exactly what Nigeria did. By changing the base year, it removed several tough years from the calculation, years when the economy was under pressure. Now, the revised GDP reflects newer and faster-growing sectors and shows an economy that is broader and more modern. Nigeria's GDP rebasing gives the country a larger economy, stronger debt profile and a more accurate view of its current structure. But while the new numbers offer some relief, they do not erase the deeper challenges, ranging from currency instability to rising debt, that still demand careful attention.
NZ Herald
13 hours ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Agribusiness and Trade: Kiwi businesses optimistic about China market growth
The sheer scale of the Chinese market cannot be under-estimated, a single district in Shanghai can have a population equal to all of New Zealand. It's no surprise that 70% of Kiwi companies in our survey are there primarily for the size of the serviceable market. However, seizing this opportunity now means looking beyond the traditional gateway of Tier 1 cities like Shanghai, where over 78% of New Zealand businesses currently have a presence. Consumption growth in these megacities is becoming sluggish. With housing prices reaching nearly 30 times a person's annual income, many households are reluctant to increase discretionary spending. The new story of growth is unfolding in China's Tier 3 and 4 cities. Here, with lower housing costs and basic needs met, families are shifting their focus from the quantity of consumption to the quality of their lives. They are turning to domestic travel and seeking out better-quality products. The data backs this up. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, 26 out of 35 major Tier 3 cities recorded consumption growth, with most increasing by 3.7% or more. This stands in contrast to urban Shanghai, which saw only 0.1% growth and a decrease in luxury spending, despite a robust increase in disposable income. While the premium price point of many New Zealand products makes the high-income middle class in Tier 1 cities a natural fit, ignoring these emerging urban centres would be a missed opportunity. The challenge for Kiwi businesses is to watch these trends closely and plan their play to expand at the right time. Of course, this isn't to say we've 'drunk the baijiu' so to speak. New Zealand businesses certainly face significant hurdles. When asked about their biggest challenges, the top concern for 57% of companies was strong domestic competition. This was followed by the difficulty of adapting to a changing retail environment and shifting consumer preferences (43%). The challenge for Kiwi businesses is to watch these trends closely and plan their play to expand at the right time. Nick Calder Traditional fears like legal hurdles and market access issues ranked much lower, at only 19%. This suggests the primary battle for Kiwi firms has shifted from getting into the market to competing within it. This is reinforced by another key challenge, weak brand awareness for New Zealand Inc., with 44% respondents feeling that there is weak brand recognition for NZ, making it harder to present their value proposition to consumers. On the 'ease of doing business,' most respondents found it to be either somewhat easy or neutral. While that may not sound like a positive number, it implies that most businesses are not fighting for basic access but are instead competing on a relatively level playing field—a crucial sign of a maturing market relationship. This resilience rests on a strong foundation. The New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement, now more than 17 years old and China's first with a developed nation, ensures that 99% of our goods enter China tariff-free. This bilateral relationship is critical for business, with 70% of respondents believing the strength of this relationship is important for their commercial success. NZBRiC 2025 Business Outlook Survey This confidence extends to how the relationship is managed, with 69% of companies stating they are satisfied with the New Zealand government's approach to the bilateral relationship. Many businesses in China see first-hand the impact of our active and engaged diplomats, whose strong working-level relationships help maintain market access and improve the speed to market for our perishable goods. Without such strong advocacy, New Zealand companies could not thrive in the way they have. Given the opportunities and risks, what is the way forward for businesses as they navigate the journey into the Middle Kingdom? Our report offers several key recommendations for both business and government. Strategies for success - For businesses · Understand Market Dynamics and Move into New Markets. As someone who moved from a New Zealand dairy farm to China, I know first-hand that the speed of change can be dizzying. To succeed, businesses must understand that China is not a monolith. The retail and e-commerce markets differ markedly across the country. Expanding into Tier 2 and 3 cities requires more than just localising products, it needs strong local partnerships built on a long-term vision. · Bridge the Gap Between HQ and Your China Team. Success depends on hiring talented local staff who understand the Chinese market and can communicate effectively with their New Zealand-based colleagues. Companies must invest in mutual cultural understanding and empower their local teams to make decisions at speed. In this hyper-competitive market, business decisions often cannot wait two days, let alone a week. · Evolve the 'New Zealand Story'. The traditional 'clean and green' branding is a starting point, businesses should use social media to build a deeper narrative, one that showcases New Zealand's unique values, personality, and ingenuity to achieve new brand differentiation. For government · China must continue breaking down internal barriers. By fully implementing its 'National Unified Market' policy, Beijing can reduce the friction between provinces and cities. This will make it easier for our exporters to expand beyond traditional Tier 1 markets as consumption patterns evolve. · Both governments must maintain a strong working relationship. This means continuing the full implementation of the NZ-China FTA, nurturing strong working-level relationships, and streamlining processes wherever possible. A year for strategic growth The year 2025 is the Year of the Snake in the Chinese zodiac, an animal associated with wisdom, transformation, and strategic thinking. By embracing these qualities, businesses can navigate the challenges and seize the opportunities in New Zealand's 'Year of Growth'. To download a copy of the report, please visit Nick Calder is executive director of the New Zealand Business Roundtable in China (NZBRiC)
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
2 days ago
- Business
- First Post
How to grow a nation's GDP by 30% overnight? Nigeria knows the answer
Nigeria's 2024 GDP now stands at N372.82tn ($244bn) at current prices, up from the $187.76bn estimated by the World Bank. The magic lies in the statistics read more Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu looks on after his swearing-in ceremony in Abuja, Nigeria, on May 29, 2023. Reuters File Nigeria's economy is about 30 per cent larger than previously thought after the west African nation updated the method by which GDP is calculated, the first rejigging of its statistical model in more than a decade. Nigeria's 2024 GDP now stands at N372.82tn ($244bn) at current prices, up from the $187.76bn estimated by the World Bank, after the country's National Bureau of Statistics changed the base year from 2010 to 2019. This was done to account for previously excluded sectors such as a booming digital services industry, pension funds and the informal labour market, which employs most Nigerian residents. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Emerging market economies are encouraged by development experts to regularly rebase their economies to better capture the size of their national output and produce economic data reflective of their nascent economies, Financial Times reported. Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, last rebased its GDP in 2014. At the time, the change allowed it to surpass South Africa to become continent's largest economy, although it lost that crown in 2023. Following the latest rebasing, Nigeria's economy remains the fourth largest on the continent, behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. 'The rebasing exercise was timely,' said Michael Famoroti, an economist and head of research at Lagos-based data company Stears. 'It's usually good to do these every 10 years or so especially in developing countries when the economy can change quite a bit. Add the emergence in the digital economy in that period and we needed an updated picture of the economy.' Famoroti said the exercise had shown that a change in the composition of the Nigerian economy was well under way, with agriculture firmly cementing its place as the largest contributor to national output and crude oil 'barely' contributing, at 5 per cent. The rebasing makes certain metrics such as the country's debt-to-GDP ratio seem healthier. Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio was 52 per cent before the model change, but now stands at about 40 per cent. That is the same level as government's self-imposed 40 per cent mark and below the 55 per cent level encouraged by the World Bank and the IMF. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'My worry is that the higher GDP figure will embolden the government to be laxer with its debt sustainability,' added. 'The debt-to-GDP ratio has already declined on the back of this. But that's only masking the situation unfortunately.' Adeyemi Adeniran, head of the NBS, described the rebasing as the 'most comprehensive' ever carried out by the bureau at a press briefing in the capital Abuja. 'Digital activities, pension fund administrators and the informal sector activities, where more than 90 per cent of Nigerians are employed, are now being measured,' he said. Nigeria lost its status as Africa's biggest economy in 2023 after President Bola Tinubu devalued its currency to reflect its true value and attract foreign investment. The naira has lost more than 70 per cent against the US dollar since the measure was taken. Last week, Senegal's finance ministry said it would soon rebase its GDP for the first time since 2018, in the midst of a scandal over hidden borrowing that threatens to push its debt burden well over the current size of its economy. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'Rebasing could improve debt/GDP along with continued strong economic performance,' Bank of America analysts said. 'As such, the authorities may find this option appealing to resolve issues around the debt stock.' Senegal's dollar bonds have rallied since the announcement. The West African country's GDP currently uses 2014 as a base year. Last year, the IMF suspended a bailout for Senegal after billions of dollars in debt were misreported. The fund is waiting for the results of an investigation into the scandal.
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
China's affluent are as pessimistic about the economy as they were during the Covid-19 pandemic
BEIJING — China's affluent are feeling just as poorly about the economy as they did during the pandemic. That's according to a study of affluent Chinese released this month by consulting firm Oliver Wyman, which found 22% of respondents were negative about the economy when surveyed in May. It just exceeds the 21% seen in October 2022, just before Beijing announced plans to ease its stringent zero-Covid policy. When asked about the five-year horizon, respondents were far less upbeat than they were back in 2022. "That to us is a fundamental shift in mindset," Imke Wouters, partner at Oliver Wyman, told CNBC. "If you think, 'I'm not having a good financial situation now,' your spending, saving patterns will be very different." "The longer this [drags] on, the more negative they become about the long term future and the more cautious they come on spending," Wouters said. These findings come as China recorded a slowdown in retail sales growth, and persistent deflationary pressure as businesses slash prices to compete. Sliding prices in property, which accounts for the majority of household wealth, have also weighed on sentiment. Oliver Wyman's research was conducted from May 16 to 27. The firm has conducted similar surveys over the last three years. The latest study covered 2,000 households with a monthly income of over 30,000 yuan ($4,180). That's a fraction of consumers in China, where the per capita disposable income in urban areas for all of last year was 54,188 yuan. That's far less than the $64,474 reported for the U.S. as of December. Young people (aged 18 to 28) in the affluent income bracket who live in China's largest cities were the most pessimistic of the four age categories, recording the greatest drop in sentiment in May this year from April 2024, the survey showed. The unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 has remained in the mid-teens despite the overall jobless rate remaining far lower at around 5%. Survey respondents aged 29 to 44 were the most optimistic, especially when it comes to their five-year outlook. In China, most of the wealth sits with millennials and Gen X, Wouters said, referring to those broadly between the ages of 30 and 60. She attributed their relative optimism to higher levels of accumulated wealth and job stability, as well as the sense that the "good old days" might return — a perspective she suggested might come with age. China's official consumer confidence index has remained depressed since hitting a record low of 85 in November 2022, when China restricted movement in an effort to prevent Covid-19 outbreaks. The latest print was 88 as of May, according to the latest available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, accessed via Wind Information. People in China have become significantly discouraged by perceived "unequal opportunity," which in 2023 became the No. 1 reason respondents believe people are poor, jumping from No. 6 nearly two decades ago. That's according to the latest survey conducted in 2023 by a team of researchers led by Martin King Whyte of Harvard University and Scott Rozelle of Stanford University, who have been monitoring the shifts since 2004. The survey found that across all income brackets, more respondents thought their families' economic situation had declined in 2023 compared with previous years. But despite their negative sentiment on the economy, many affluent Chinese are more keen to travel internationally than they were just before the pandemic. Rather than spending on a luxury product, for example, they would rather "spend on something that can make [them feel] better now," Wouters said. "You just want to enjoy the moment," she said. Oliver Wyman predicts the share of affluent Chinese traveling internationally this year will reach 37%, above the 32% level seen in 2019, before the pandemic. So far, 27% of respondents have already traveled abroad, with 10% more expected to make a trip later this year. Still, affluent Chinese aren't necessarily traveling back to pre-pandemic hot spots such as the United States, the report said, noting that they are sticking closer to home instead. Chinese travel to Malaysia and Japan has already made a full recovery to 2019 levels, Oliver Wyman's analysis showed.
Express Tribune
3 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
China's GDP grows 5.3% in H1 despite global headwinds
Listen to article Defying all predictions, China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to preliminary data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as Beijing rejigged its trade strategy in the wake of US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive. Beijing stayed ahead of the curve and outmanoeuvred the trade assault by reconfiguring supply chains, broadening its export footprint beyond US markets and shoring up domestic demand to keep growth on track. The overall size of GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan ($9.1 trillion), demonstrating China's resilience despite global economic headwinds. The 5.3% GDP growth was higher than the average prediction of 5.1% made by 40 economists interviewed by Reuters. "This is a hard-won achievement, particularly considering the sharp fluctuations in the international situation and heightened external pressures since the second quarter," said NBS Deputy Commissioner Sheng Laiyun. He credited the "highly valuable" numbers to stable progress in the implementation of macro-policy, industrial growth topped by high-tech industries and 68.8% from domestic demand. The breakdown shows that the primary industry contributed 3,117.2 billion yuan, with a YoY increase of 3.7%, driven mainly by stable production in agriculture. The secondary industry accounted for 23,905 billion yuan, up 5.3%, and the services sector witnessed the highest growth, contributing 39,031.4 billion yuan, up 5.5%. China's GDP grew 5.4% YoY in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second, showing steady economic momentum despite the global turmoil spawned mainly by Trump's trade tariffs. The manufacturing sector continues to be the engine of China's economic growth. Industrial output grew 6.8% YoY in June, a sharp pickup from May's 5.8% growth. High-tech industries, new-energy cars and robotics industries were the main drivers of growth, showing the country's strategic focus on technological independence and industrial upgrade. "China will still pursue high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology," said Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank. He believes new schemes, such as the science and technology bond board and associated financial instruments, would further boost tech-led development. High-tech production rose by 9.7% in June, contributing to overall industrial growth. Industries like electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries and high-end machinery are witnessing consistent demand both locally and globally. The Chinese government has been promoting industrial innovation through subsidies that target specific sectors, tax breaks and investment incentives, further cementing the sector's growth. "Booming industries, especially the use of digital and green technologies, drove tremendous breakthroughs across industries — illustrating the pace of the nation's technological advances," said Peking University Economist Cao Heping. Despite ongoing global trade uncertainties, Chinese exporters have benefited from reviving international demand and a short-term trade truce with the US. In June 2025, exports expanded by 5.8% YoY, after a 4.8% rise in May. This is the best export growth since mid-2024. Hu Qimu, Deputy Secretary-General of the Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, told Xinhua: "The first-half GDP growth reflects the strong resilience of China's economy, underpinned by its comprehensive industrial system and vast market capacity." China's total exports went up by almost 6% in the first half of 2025, ensuring a healthy trade surplus of about $586 billion. Exports to Southeast Asia shot up by 16.8% YoY, showing the country's increasing trade partnership with regional members via agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China's huge domestic market remains a pillar, supporting long-term economic expansion. Retail sales rose 4.8% in June, after higher 6.4% gains in May. The moderation is attributed by analysts to a mix of risk-averse consumer behaviour and gradual rebalancing in the real estate market. Still, policy measures to spur consumption, such as subsidies for environmentally friendly appliances, electric cars, and rural revitalisation measures, are helping to support it. The introduction of "trade-in" programmes for home appliances and incentives for car replacements have moderated some consumers' wariness. The services sector also recorded a good 5.5% expansion in the first half, reflecting steady demand across segments like transport, finance, health care and internet services. The services industry now represents virtually 60% of China's GDP, highlighting the nation's shift to a more consumption- and services-based economy. The policymakers have used a cautious yet bold strategy to maintain economic growth. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) slashed interest rates earlier this year and pumped in liquidity to stimulate lending and spur business activity. Targeted fiscal policies have aimed at upgrading infrastructure, high-tech industry, and small- and medium-sized enterprises. China has given emphasis to structural change and specific interventions. "China's economic performance this year is a visible rebound and upturn — owing primarily to more solid macroeconomic policies, pointing to a string of monetary easing measures — and a significant boost in fiscal spending," writes Xi Junyang, Professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. International economists are of the view that this strategy demonstrates faith in the intrinsic health of the economy and avoids over-expansion of credit. Considering the Chinese economy's stable path, a number of global financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have now upped their projections for the country's economic growth rate in 2025. Local authorities have been given the ability to speed up infrastructure expenditure and bring forward strategic projects, such as digital economy centres and renewable energy facilities, further supporting growth. The provisional trade truce with the US, reached in May 2025, has brought welcome relief for Chinese exporters. Analysts foresee a YoY growth in the 5-5.2% range, slightly higher than the government's official target. They believe China's push for high-quality, innovation-based growth is setting the foundation for long-term development. The government's measures to spur domestic demand, promote green technologies, and stabilise property markets are seen supporting the economic momentum. The writer is a student and independent contributor
