Latest news with #NationalClimateRiskAssessment
The Advertiser
23-06-2025
- Climate
- The Advertiser
How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine
How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine, if Australians' recent experience of more extreme weather and natural disasters - driven by a hotter climate - are an indication, because the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Civil engineer Alan Hoban says flood maps around Australia drastically underestimate the impact climate change will have on rainfall due to conservative assumptions about how fast rainfall intensity will increase. "Very few flood maps in south-east Queensland, or even Australia, yet account for these changes," he says. Extreme floods and rain events are often oddly described as a "one-in-a-hundred-year" or a "one-in-five hundred-year" event, suggesting they are unlikely to recur. But then they happen again, within a few years. This shows the assessments of future climate risks are too conservative, and so vulnerable communities and governments are under-prepared. Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires were of an intensity not projected to occur till towards the end of the century. And some heat extremes of the early 2020s were at a level projected for the 2030s. It's a problem created in part by over-reliance on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have a track record of being too conservative. The Australian government is late in delivering its first domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December, and should be the basis for emergency management, resilience and climate adaptation planning. Will it be up to date, and will it give attention to the plausible worst-case (extreme) possibilities, because they result in the greatest damage to people and property? There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. One foundation for understanding future climate impacts is how quickly temperatures will rise. And that is now a big issue, because the government's assumption was that warming would be in the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees by 2050. And it is still the basis of most international climate policy formulation. Now it is way out of date. Just seven years ago, IPCC scientists projected global average warming of 1.5 degrees would not occur till 2040. But that warming level has now been reached, 15 years earlier than forecast. Both 2023 and 2024 reached 1.5 degrees, and the running average for the last 24 months has been close to 1.6 degrees. For all practical purposes, the warming trend has reached 1.5 degeres. A new World Meteorological Organization report says that Earth will cross this point in just two years, with a "70 per cent chance that the 2025-29 five-year mean will exceed 1.5 degrees above the 1850-1900 average". Acknowledging that a level of warming not expected till 2040 is here right now in 2025 means facing the bitter reality that 15 years have just been "lost" from the emissions-reduction timetable. What does that practically mean? At the 2015 Paris climate policymaking conference, the goal of holding warming to 1.5-2 degrees was agreed to, together with actions (in theory) to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on the now-superseded warming projections. So the "lost" 15 years means that this net-zero-by-2050 goal now needs to be net-zero-by-2035. Most policymakers, including the Australian government, seem not to have recognised this. When the penny drops in Canberra that we are already at 1.5 degrees, will that realisation be reflected in the National Climate Risk Assessment? Australia's climate modelling capacity has been degraded. The biggest problems are lack of independent and expert scientific advice, and the lack of coordination across departments and agencies, and a culture of empire-building. Restoring a climate science advisory group to provide high-level, independent advice to the Australian government is a key task. Scientists have been shocked at the pace of change. The rate of warming has accelerated from less than 0.2 dgrees per decade to 0.3 degrees or more per decade. And tipping points are occurring now, including at both poles. Permafrost, boreal forests and the Amazon are becoming net carbon emitters. This year, new research has reaffirmed that 1.5 degrees is too high to prevent tipping points: there is a significant risk of large Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5 degrees, yet we are there right now. And there is a new scientific warning that "1.5 degrees is too high for polar ice sheets". The evidence grows that the 1.5 degrees target was never a safe target for humanity. All of this leads to one conclusion: we are on the edge of a precipice and humanity now needs to throw everything at the climate threat, literally "all hands on deck". The late professor Will Steffen's call to make climate the primary target of policy and economics is now a survival imperative. The business-as-usual delusion embraced by policymakers that climate is just another issue is laid bare by the 1.5 degrees time-bomb. How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine, if Australians' recent experience of more extreme weather and natural disasters - driven by a hotter climate - are an indication, because the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Civil engineer Alan Hoban says flood maps around Australia drastically underestimate the impact climate change will have on rainfall due to conservative assumptions about how fast rainfall intensity will increase. "Very few flood maps in south-east Queensland, or even Australia, yet account for these changes," he says. Extreme floods and rain events are often oddly described as a "one-in-a-hundred-year" or a "one-in-five hundred-year" event, suggesting they are unlikely to recur. But then they happen again, within a few years. This shows the assessments of future climate risks are too conservative, and so vulnerable communities and governments are under-prepared. Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires were of an intensity not projected to occur till towards the end of the century. And some heat extremes of the early 2020s were at a level projected for the 2030s. It's a problem created in part by over-reliance on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have a track record of being too conservative. The Australian government is late in delivering its first domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December, and should be the basis for emergency management, resilience and climate adaptation planning. Will it be up to date, and will it give attention to the plausible worst-case (extreme) possibilities, because they result in the greatest damage to people and property? There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. One foundation for understanding future climate impacts is how quickly temperatures will rise. And that is now a big issue, because the government's assumption was that warming would be in the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees by 2050. And it is still the basis of most international climate policy formulation. Now it is way out of date. Just seven years ago, IPCC scientists projected global average warming of 1.5 degrees would not occur till 2040. But that warming level has now been reached, 15 years earlier than forecast. Both 2023 and 2024 reached 1.5 degrees, and the running average for the last 24 months has been close to 1.6 degrees. For all practical purposes, the warming trend has reached 1.5 degeres. A new World Meteorological Organization report says that Earth will cross this point in just two years, with a "70 per cent chance that the 2025-29 five-year mean will exceed 1.5 degrees above the 1850-1900 average". Acknowledging that a level of warming not expected till 2040 is here right now in 2025 means facing the bitter reality that 15 years have just been "lost" from the emissions-reduction timetable. What does that practically mean? At the 2015 Paris climate policymaking conference, the goal of holding warming to 1.5-2 degrees was agreed to, together with actions (in theory) to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on the now-superseded warming projections. So the "lost" 15 years means that this net-zero-by-2050 goal now needs to be net-zero-by-2035. Most policymakers, including the Australian government, seem not to have recognised this. When the penny drops in Canberra that we are already at 1.5 degrees, will that realisation be reflected in the National Climate Risk Assessment? Australia's climate modelling capacity has been degraded. The biggest problems are lack of independent and expert scientific advice, and the lack of coordination across departments and agencies, and a culture of empire-building. Restoring a climate science advisory group to provide high-level, independent advice to the Australian government is a key task. Scientists have been shocked at the pace of change. The rate of warming has accelerated from less than 0.2 dgrees per decade to 0.3 degrees or more per decade. And tipping points are occurring now, including at both poles. Permafrost, boreal forests and the Amazon are becoming net carbon emitters. This year, new research has reaffirmed that 1.5 degrees is too high to prevent tipping points: there is a significant risk of large Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5 degrees, yet we are there right now. And there is a new scientific warning that "1.5 degrees is too high for polar ice sheets". The evidence grows that the 1.5 degrees target was never a safe target for humanity. All of this leads to one conclusion: we are on the edge of a precipice and humanity now needs to throw everything at the climate threat, literally "all hands on deck". The late professor Will Steffen's call to make climate the primary target of policy and economics is now a survival imperative. The business-as-usual delusion embraced by policymakers that climate is just another issue is laid bare by the 1.5 degrees time-bomb. How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine, if Australians' recent experience of more extreme weather and natural disasters - driven by a hotter climate - are an indication, because the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Civil engineer Alan Hoban says flood maps around Australia drastically underestimate the impact climate change will have on rainfall due to conservative assumptions about how fast rainfall intensity will increase. "Very few flood maps in south-east Queensland, or even Australia, yet account for these changes," he says. Extreme floods and rain events are often oddly described as a "one-in-a-hundred-year" or a "one-in-five hundred-year" event, suggesting they are unlikely to recur. But then they happen again, within a few years. This shows the assessments of future climate risks are too conservative, and so vulnerable communities and governments are under-prepared. Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires were of an intensity not projected to occur till towards the end of the century. And some heat extremes of the early 2020s were at a level projected for the 2030s. It's a problem created in part by over-reliance on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have a track record of being too conservative. The Australian government is late in delivering its first domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December, and should be the basis for emergency management, resilience and climate adaptation planning. Will it be up to date, and will it give attention to the plausible worst-case (extreme) possibilities, because they result in the greatest damage to people and property? There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. One foundation for understanding future climate impacts is how quickly temperatures will rise. And that is now a big issue, because the government's assumption was that warming would be in the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees by 2050. And it is still the basis of most international climate policy formulation. Now it is way out of date. Just seven years ago, IPCC scientists projected global average warming of 1.5 degrees would not occur till 2040. But that warming level has now been reached, 15 years earlier than forecast. Both 2023 and 2024 reached 1.5 degrees, and the running average for the last 24 months has been close to 1.6 degrees. For all practical purposes, the warming trend has reached 1.5 degeres. A new World Meteorological Organization report says that Earth will cross this point in just two years, with a "70 per cent chance that the 2025-29 five-year mean will exceed 1.5 degrees above the 1850-1900 average". Acknowledging that a level of warming not expected till 2040 is here right now in 2025 means facing the bitter reality that 15 years have just been "lost" from the emissions-reduction timetable. What does that practically mean? At the 2015 Paris climate policymaking conference, the goal of holding warming to 1.5-2 degrees was agreed to, together with actions (in theory) to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on the now-superseded warming projections. So the "lost" 15 years means that this net-zero-by-2050 goal now needs to be net-zero-by-2035. Most policymakers, including the Australian government, seem not to have recognised this. When the penny drops in Canberra that we are already at 1.5 degrees, will that realisation be reflected in the National Climate Risk Assessment? Australia's climate modelling capacity has been degraded. The biggest problems are lack of independent and expert scientific advice, and the lack of coordination across departments and agencies, and a culture of empire-building. Restoring a climate science advisory group to provide high-level, independent advice to the Australian government is a key task. Scientists have been shocked at the pace of change. The rate of warming has accelerated from less than 0.2 dgrees per decade to 0.3 degrees or more per decade. And tipping points are occurring now, including at both poles. Permafrost, boreal forests and the Amazon are becoming net carbon emitters. This year, new research has reaffirmed that 1.5 degrees is too high to prevent tipping points: there is a significant risk of large Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5 degrees, yet we are there right now. And there is a new scientific warning that "1.5 degrees is too high for polar ice sheets". The evidence grows that the 1.5 degrees target was never a safe target for humanity. All of this leads to one conclusion: we are on the edge of a precipice and humanity now needs to throw everything at the climate threat, literally "all hands on deck". The late professor Will Steffen's call to make climate the primary target of policy and economics is now a survival imperative. The business-as-usual delusion embraced by policymakers that climate is just another issue is laid bare by the 1.5 degrees time-bomb. How bad can climate damage get? Worse than you imagine, if Australians' recent experience of more extreme weather and natural disasters - driven by a hotter climate - are an indication, because the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Civil engineer Alan Hoban says flood maps around Australia drastically underestimate the impact climate change will have on rainfall due to conservative assumptions about how fast rainfall intensity will increase. "Very few flood maps in south-east Queensland, or even Australia, yet account for these changes," he says. Extreme floods and rain events are often oddly described as a "one-in-a-hundred-year" or a "one-in-five hundred-year" event, suggesting they are unlikely to recur. But then they happen again, within a few years. This shows the assessments of future climate risks are too conservative, and so vulnerable communities and governments are under-prepared. Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires were of an intensity not projected to occur till towards the end of the century. And some heat extremes of the early 2020s were at a level projected for the 2030s. It's a problem created in part by over-reliance on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have a track record of being too conservative. The Australian government is late in delivering its first domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment, which was due in December, and should be the basis for emergency management, resilience and climate adaptation planning. Will it be up to date, and will it give attention to the plausible worst-case (extreme) possibilities, because they result in the greatest damage to people and property? There is reason to worry that the physical reality of accelerating climate disruption will mug Australia's risk assessment and leave us poorly prepared. One foundation for understanding future climate impacts is how quickly temperatures will rise. And that is now a big issue, because the government's assumption was that warming would be in the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees by 2050. And it is still the basis of most international climate policy formulation. Now it is way out of date. Just seven years ago, IPCC scientists projected global average warming of 1.5 degrees would not occur till 2040. But that warming level has now been reached, 15 years earlier than forecast. Both 2023 and 2024 reached 1.5 degrees, and the running average for the last 24 months has been close to 1.6 degrees. For all practical purposes, the warming trend has reached 1.5 degeres. A new World Meteorological Organization report says that Earth will cross this point in just two years, with a "70 per cent chance that the 2025-29 five-year mean will exceed 1.5 degrees above the 1850-1900 average". Acknowledging that a level of warming not expected till 2040 is here right now in 2025 means facing the bitter reality that 15 years have just been "lost" from the emissions-reduction timetable. What does that practically mean? At the 2015 Paris climate policymaking conference, the goal of holding warming to 1.5-2 degrees was agreed to, together with actions (in theory) to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on the now-superseded warming projections. So the "lost" 15 years means that this net-zero-by-2050 goal now needs to be net-zero-by-2035. Most policymakers, including the Australian government, seem not to have recognised this. When the penny drops in Canberra that we are already at 1.5 degrees, will that realisation be reflected in the National Climate Risk Assessment? Australia's climate modelling capacity has been degraded. The biggest problems are lack of independent and expert scientific advice, and the lack of coordination across departments and agencies, and a culture of empire-building. Restoring a climate science advisory group to provide high-level, independent advice to the Australian government is a key task. Scientists have been shocked at the pace of change. The rate of warming has accelerated from less than 0.2 dgrees per decade to 0.3 degrees or more per decade. And tipping points are occurring now, including at both poles. Permafrost, boreal forests and the Amazon are becoming net carbon emitters. This year, new research has reaffirmed that 1.5 degrees is too high to prevent tipping points: there is a significant risk of large Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5 degrees, yet we are there right now. And there is a new scientific warning that "1.5 degrees is too high for polar ice sheets". The evidence grows that the 1.5 degrees target was never a safe target for humanity. All of this leads to one conclusion: we are on the edge of a precipice and humanity now needs to throw everything at the climate threat, literally "all hands on deck". The late professor Will Steffen's call to make climate the primary target of policy and economics is now a survival imperative. The business-as-usual delusion embraced by policymakers that climate is just another issue is laid bare by the 1.5 degrees time-bomb.
Sydney Morning Herald
18-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Insurance claims for wild weather damage this year already exceed 2024 total
Insurance claims for wild weather in the first five months of this year have already surpassed 2024 for at least one major insurer, as the community tallies the cost of Cyclone Alfred and the NSW floods. NRMA Insurance said it had received 32,000 claims for wild weather-related damage to both vehicles and property between January and May this year, including cyclones, devastating floods, damaging winds and storms. While unusually high, it did not surpass the 53,716 claims in the first five months of 2022 for damage from widespread floods and an east coast low. Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean said Australia needed to reduce emissions to limit further climate warming, while also mounting a strong national adaptation effort to protect the nation against the risks that were already here. 'It's no surprise the damage bill is mounting,' Kean said. 'This underscores the need for practical action like updating building codes and extending cyclone construction standards further down the coast.' Loading The Albanese government has invested $27.4 million in Australia's first-ever National Climate Risk Assessment and a related National Adaptation Plan, but it is yet to be released. The Climate Change Authority will on Thursday publish a report examining the perils of climate change for home owners, including the implications of ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred and expectations of more southerly cyclones. CSIRO research suggests every $1 invested in climate resilience saves up to $11 in recovery costs. Alfred was the first cyclone to threaten South East Queensland and northern NSW in 50 years. Peter Chan, a meteorologist and executive manager with NRMA's natural perils team, said back in 1974 when Cyclone Zoe and Cyclone Wanda hit, there were 2 million people living in South East Queensland and now there were 4 million. By 2046, the population of the region is expected to grow to 6 million. NRMA Insurance covers every state and territory except Victoria, where IAG insurance is sold by RACV. Chan said Queensland experienced its worst season for wild weather claims back to at least 2017 – and that it took just 66 days for the state to surpass its total claims due to weather damage in 2024.
The Age
18-06-2025
- Business
- The Age
Insurance claims for wild weather damage this year already exceed 2024 total
Insurance claims for wild weather in the first five months of this year have already surpassed 2024 for at least one major insurer, as the community tallies the cost of Cyclone Alfred and the NSW floods. NRMA Insurance said it had received 32,000 claims for wild weather-related damage to both vehicles and property between January and May this year, including cyclones, devastating floods, damaging winds and storms. While unusually high, it did not surpass the 53,716 claims in the first five months of 2022 for damage from widespread floods and an east coast low. Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean said Australia needed to reduce emissions to limit further climate warming, while also mounting a strong national adaptation effort to protect the nation against the risks that were already here. 'It's no surprise the damage bill is mounting,' Kean said. 'This underscores the need for practical action like updating building codes and extending cyclone construction standards further down the coast.' Loading The Albanese government has invested $27.4 million in Australia's first-ever National Climate Risk Assessment and a related National Adaptation Plan, but it is yet to be released. The Climate Change Authority will on Thursday publish a report examining the perils of climate change for home owners, including the implications of ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred and expectations of more southerly cyclones. CSIRO research suggests every $1 invested in climate resilience saves up to $11 in recovery costs. Alfred was the first cyclone to threaten South East Queensland and northern NSW in 50 years. Peter Chan, a meteorologist and executive manager with NRMA's natural perils team, said back in 1974 when Cyclone Zoe and Cyclone Wanda hit, there were 2 million people living in South East Queensland and now there were 4 million. By 2046, the population of the region is expected to grow to 6 million. NRMA Insurance covers every state and territory except Victoria, where IAG insurance is sold by RACV. Chan said Queensland experienced its worst season for wild weather claims back to at least 2017 – and that it took just 66 days for the state to surpass its total claims due to weather damage in 2024.
Agriland
04-06-2025
- Business
- Agriland
Report: Risk to crop yields as Ireland projected to get warmer and wetter
A new report that reveals 'where, when and how' climates risks could likely impact on Ireland warns that it will get warmer and wetter, which in turn could reduce crop yields. The Environment Protection Agency (EPA) today (Wednesday, June 4) published Ireland's first National Climate Change Risk Assessment report, which identifies 115 risks from projected changes in climate conditions. These risks are likely to impact on energy, transport, communications, water security, public health, food production and supply, and ecosystems. According to the EPA, it identified a total of 43 significant risks for Ireland. Source: EPA (June 2025) Laura Burke, EPA director general said today:'We know that Ireland is being impacted by climate change already. 'This comprehensive assessment highlights the need for additional urgent action to ensure Ireland is sustainably resilient to the risks that we currently face, and will increasingly experience, in the coming decades. 'Recent events, such as Storms Darragh and Éowyn, demonstrated how damage to critical infrastructure such as energy, water supply, transport and communications networks in turn give rise to impacts on human health, biodiversity, and the financial system.' In the report, the EPA also stipulates that some 'significant risks' require urgent action within the next five years. These are: The risk of disruption and damage to communications and energy distribution infrastructure due to extreme wind; The risk of disruption and damage to buildings and transport infrastructure due to extreme wind, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. Climate risk assessment report The report also details that by the end of this century 'extreme heat' is identified as a priority risk. According to the EPA, Ireland's climate is projected to get warmer with average temperatures increasing across all seasons and on an annual basis, while the number of heatwaves is also forecast to increase. The National Climate Risk Assessment report also identifies potential 'opportunities' as a result of climate change for certain economic sectors, including a longer season for outdoor activities which could boost tourism-related businesses. According to the EPA, there could also be a longer growing season and 'improved livestock nutrition and grazing because of higher average temperatures'.
Extra.ie
04-06-2025
- Business
- Extra.ie
Urgent extreme weather warning for Ireland
Extreme wind, flooding and heat have been flagged in the first comprehensive assessment of where, when and how climate risks are likely to impact Ireland over the coming decades. The State's environmental watchdog, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has today warned of 115 risks associated with a projected increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events through 2030, 2050, and 2100. It said these would affect the country's energy, transport, communications, water security, public health, food production and supply, and ecosystems. Extreme wind, flooding and heat have been flagged in the first comprehensive assessment of where, when and how climate risks are likely to impact Ireland over the coming decades. Pic: Shutterstock In a new report, the EPA said urgent action was particularly badly needed over the next five years to prevent disruption and damage to communications and energy distribution infrastructure, due to extreme wind. It said similarly rapid action was needed to avoid disruption and damage to buildings and transport infrastructure due to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding. Also requiring swift attention were risks to the built environment and human health from flooding and heat, the EPA said. Also requiring swift attention were risks to the built environment and human health from flooding and heat, the EPA said. Pic: Noel Sweeney/PA Wire/PA Images Laura Burke, EPA director general, said: 'We know that Ireland is being impacted by climate change already. 'Recent events, such as Storms Darragh and Éowyn, demonstrated how damage to critical infrastructure, such as energy, water supply, transport and communications networks, in turn gives rise to impacts on human health, biodiversity and the financial system.' EPA director Dr Eimear Cotter said: 'The National Climate Risk Assessment underscores the need for immediate action in the next five years to enhance the resilience of Ireland's critical infrastructure to climate change. Over the last century, Ireland's climate has become warmer, with changes in precipitation patterns and rising sea levels. Pic: 'The risks with the most consequential and highest urgency ratings relate to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding.' The report states: 'Ireland's climate is changing in line with global trends. These changes are unprecedented, and it is now established fact that human activities are resulting in the warming of our climate system. 'Over the last century, Ireland's climate has become warmer, with patterns of precipitation changing and rising sea levels. These changes in our average climate conditions are also being reflected in changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. 'Changes to Ireland's climate will continue and intensify, with far-reaching consequences for its environment, economy, and society.' The EPA warned climate change would drive up insurance costs, reduce tax payments to the State and cause businesses to struggle. Increases in rainfall and flooding would pose significant risks to citizens' physical and mental health. Flooding can cause injuries, fatalities, PTSD, depression and anxiety. Extreme heat also poses health risks, particularly to vulnerable groups such as older adults, children, and people with chronic illnesses. It can cause heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and dehydration, while warmer temperatures extend the spread of diseases. Wildlife will also be affected, with an increasing risk of forest fires, deteriorating quality of freshwater due to flooding and droughts, a degradation in habitats and a risk of invasive species. The EPA also cited a risk of reduced crop yields. It warned of 'cascading' impacts, such as a loss of electricity affecting water supply, transport, food production, healthcare and water security. Predictions in the report, obtained from Met Éireann and other agencies, pointed to a national mean temperature rise of 1.5°C by the 2050s, with the mid-east experiencing the largest increase of up to 2C. It said the upsides of climate change include the possibility of increased tourism, as well as increased hydro-power generation, more shellfish and a greater diversity of marine species.
