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Wall Street Journal
08-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Small-Business Sentiment Darkens Slightly
Businesses on Main Street became a little more pessimistic last month as heightened uncertainty continued to weigh. The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that its optimism index, a gauge of sentiment among small firms, edged down 0.2 points to 98.6 in June, slightly above its long-term reading of 98. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected 98.7.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How small businesses are navigating rising uncertainty in 2025
Small businesses make up nearly half of all private-sector jobs in the U.S. They help drive local economies, spark innovation, and keep communities running. Because of their impact, their mood often reflects bigger shifts in the economy. Right now, that mood isn't great. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has consistently dropped from January to April 2025. Rising labor costs, persistent inflation, and tighter access to credit are creating major planning challenges for many small business owners. To understand how small businesses are responding to these challenges, Gateway Commercial Finance, an invoice factoring company, analyzed the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Fed Small Business Credit Survey. This study highlights key trends in small business optimism, hiring, and financial health. In March 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.3 points to 97.4. This is the sharpest monthly decline the index has seen since June 2022, bringing it below its historical 51-year average of 98. It fell another 1.6 points in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive monthly dip. The downturn was driven primarily by weakened expectations for future business conditions and unfilled job openings. Business owners are less certain about what will happen next. In February 2025, the NFIB Uncertainty Index jumped to 104, its second-highest level in more than 50 years. This kind of uncertainty makes planning tough. Many small businesses are slowing down decisions about hiring, spending, and growth. When the future looks shaky, most choose to wait things out. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, staffing trends at small businesses (10 to 49 employees) have shifted in early 2025. Small business owners are treading carefully when it comes to growing their teams, but that doesn't mean hiring has stopped. Some are bringing on new people and finding ways to adapt in a shifting labor market. Here's what the data shows: Job openings are down. Some employers could be holding off on creating new positions while they wait for more economic clarity. Hiring is steady. Despite fewer openings, many businesses are still filling roles as needed. More people are quitting. Workers seem more confident about finding better opportunities elsewhere. Layoffs have slowed. Fewer businesses are cutting staff, which points to a degree of stability. Financial health is still a weak spot for many small businesses. Fewer are reporting revenue or job growth, based on the most recent Fed Small Business Credit Survey. These numbers haven't bounced back to where they were before the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to credit isn't helping much either. While the share of businesses applying for new credit has returned to pre-2020 levels, approval rates have slipped. Before the pandemic, 62% of applicants received full approval for financing; that figure now sits at just 52%. This drop in access to capital may further constrain investment, hiring, and long-term planning for many small businesses. Small businesses continue to be an important part of the U.S. economy, but many are moving carefully as uncertainty persists. With optimism declining, hiring trends shifting, and credit access tightening, owners are prioritizing stability over aggressive growth. The latest data points to a period of adjustment—not acceleration, but not retreat either. How small businesses respond in the months ahead will help shape the bigger economic picture. For this study, we leveraged the April 2025 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS Estimates, and the annual Fed Small Business Credit Survey to understand small business optimism and uncertainty, job openings, hiring, turnover, and employment and revenue growth. This story was produced by Gateway Commercial Finance and reviewed and distributed by Stacker. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
23-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
How small businesses are navigating rising uncertainty in 2025
How small businesses are navigating rising uncertainty in 2025 Small businesses make up nearly half of all private-sector jobs in the U.S. They help drive local economies, spark innovation, and keep communities running. Because of their impact, their mood often reflects bigger shifts in the economy. Right now, that mood isn't great. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has consistently dropped from January to April 2025. Rising labor costs, persistent inflation, and tighter access to credit are creating major planning challenges for many small business owners. To understand how small businesses are responding to these challenges, Gateway Commercial Finance, an invoice factoring company, analyzed the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Fed Small Business Credit Survey. This study highlights key trends in small business optimism, hiring, and financial health. The mood on Main Street: Optimism and uncertainty In March 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.3 points to 97.4. This is the sharpest monthly decline the index has seen since June 2022, bringing it below its historical 51-year average of 98. It fell another 1.6 points in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive monthly dip. The downturn was driven primarily by weakened expectations for future business conditions and unfilled job openings. Business owners are less certain about what will happen next. In February 2025, the NFIB Uncertainty Index jumped to 104, its second-highest level in more than 50 years. This kind of uncertainty makes planning tough. Many small businesses are slowing down decisions about hiring, spending, and growth. When the future looks shaky, most choose to wait things out. Labor market pressures: Hiring, quits, and layoffs According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, staffing trends at small businesses (10 to 49 employees) have shifted in early 2025. Small business owners are treading carefully when it comes to growing their teams, but that doesn't mean hiring has stopped. Some are bringing on new people and finding ways to adapt in a shifting labor market. Here's what the data shows: Job openings are down. Some employers could be holding off on creating new positions while they wait for more economic is steady. Despite fewer openings, many businesses are still filling roles as people are quitting. Workers seem more confident about finding better opportunities have slowed. Fewer businesses are cutting staff, which points to a degree of stability. Small business financial health and credit access Financial health is still a weak spot for many small businesses. Fewer are reporting revenue or job growth, based on the most recent Fed Small Business Credit Survey. These numbers haven't bounced back to where they were before the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to credit isn't helping much either. While the share of businesses applying for new credit has returned to pre-2020 levels, approval rates have slipped. Before the pandemic, 62% of applicants received full approval for financing; that figure now sits at just 52%. This drop in access to capital may further constrain investment, hiring, and long-term planning for many small businesses. Navigating uncertainty with cautious resilience Small businesses continue to be an important part of the U.S. economy, but many are moving carefully as uncertainty persists. With optimism declining, hiring trends shifting, and credit access tightening, owners are prioritizing stability over aggressive growth. The latest data points to a period of adjustment-not acceleration, but not retreat either. How small businesses respond in the months ahead will help shape the bigger economic picture. Methodology For this study, we leveraged the April 2025 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS Estimates, and the annual Fed Small Business Credit Survey to understand small business optimism and uncertainty, job openings, hiring, turnover, and employment and revenue growth. This story was produced by Gateway Commercial Finance and reviewed and distributed by Stacker. © Stacker Media, LLC.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Small Business Optimism Grows: What's Ahead for ETFs?
Small business owners grew more optimistic in May, reflecting improved expectations for business conditions and sales, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The latest data revealed that the small business optimism index climbed to 98.8 in May, up from 95.8 in April. This marked the first rise since September. Small businesses serve as a vital barometer of the U.S. economy. The rebound in optimism could reflect a stabilizing business environment, offering a bullish signal for market sentiment and boding well for small-cap stocks and this, we have highlighted a few top-ranked ETFs that could be better plays going forward. These are iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF IJR, iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, Vanguard Small-Cap ETF VB, Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF SCHA and Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF VTWO. These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), suggesting their outperformance in the months ahead. Economic data in May reinforced optimism. After five consecutive months of declines, consumer confidence rebounded. The U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added more-than-expected 139,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% (read: S&P 500 Wraps Up Best May Since 1990: 5 Top Stocks in the ETF). The share of business owners expecting improved business conditions jumped 10 percentage points month over month to 25%, while those anticipating higher real sales volumes rose 11 points to 10%.Although optimism recovered in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners as taxes, tariffs and inflation fear are keeping owners on edge. Taxes have emerged as the top concern, cited by 18% of the respondents. This is the first time this issue has ranked highest since late 2020, surpassing worries about labor quality and inflation. Inflation remains a concern, too, with 14% of owners listing it as their biggest problem even though consumer prices rose just 2.3% year over year in April, the lowest reading since February 2021. According to World Bank forecasts, U.S. economic growth will likely slow down to 1.4% this year from 2.8% in 2024, citing the burden from Trump's tariffs. The agency also stated that the rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment. We have profiled the abovementioned ETFs here:iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF is the largest and most popular ETF in the small-cap space, with an AUM of $78.1 billion and an average daily volume of 4 million shares. It follows the S&P SmallCap 600 Index and holds 629 stocks in its basket, with none accounting for more than 0.6% of the assets. Industrials, financials, consumer discretionary and information technology are the top four sectors with double-digit exposure each. The product charges investors 6 bps in annual Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)iShares Russell 2000 ETF tracks the Russell 2000 Index and holds 1,934 well-diversified stocks in its basket. IWM has key holdings in financials, industrials, healthcare, and information technology. iShares Russell 2000 ETF has AUM of $61.9 billion and trades in an average daily volume of 30 million shares. It charges 19 bps in annual fees (read: 3 Factors That Could Give Struggling Small-Cap ETFs a Boost).Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) Vanguard Small-Cap ETF follows the CRSP US Small Cap Index and holds a basket of 1,349 stocks, with none holding more than 0.5% of the assets. Vanguard Small-Cap ETF is widely spread across various sectors, with industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, information technology and healthcare being the top five. Vanguard Small-Cap ETF has AUM of $62.4 billion and trades in a solid average daily volume of about 826,000 shares. It charges 5 bps in fees per year from investors. Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Small-Cap Total Stock Market Index, holding 1,713 stocks in its basket. Each security accounts for less than 0.5% of the assets. SCHA is widely spread across sectors, with financials, industrials, health care, information technology and consumer discretionary having double-digit exposure each. Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF has amassed $17 billion in its asset base and sees a solid volume of around 2.3 million shares a day. It has an expense ratio of 0.04%. Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO)Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF tracks the Russell 2000 Index, holding 1,955 stocks in its basket, with none making up for more than 0.7% of the assets. It is widely spread across various sectors, with financials, industrials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology being the top five. Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF has accumulated $12.3 billion in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 1.3 million shares. The product charges 7 bps in annual fees. While confidence among small-cap companies is improving, they continue to grapple with headwinds such as evolving tax policies, persistent labor shortages and tighter credit conditions. These challenges could impact their earnings potential and could shape the trajectory of U.S. recovery. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): ETF Research Reports iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR): ETF Research Reports Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Standard
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Wall Street Rises Ahead of Inflation Data; Gold and Oil Slip on US
Stocks gain modestly as investors await inflation reports; NFIB index up but gold and oil dip amid cautious sentiment and global trade concerns. The Dow climbed 105.11 points or 0.25 percent to finish at 42,866.87, while the NASDAQ gained 123.75 points or 0.63 percent to close at 19,714.99 and the S&P 500 added 32.93 points or 0.55 percent to end at 6,038.81. The National Federation of Independent Business said the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US increased to 98.8 in May 2025. a lack of major U.S. economic data probably kept traders on the sidelines as they look ahead to the release of crucial reports on consumer and producer price inflation in the coming days. European stocks turned in a mixed performance. the mood remained cautious in most of the markets amid a lack of any significant economic data or earnings news from the region. Crude oil prices were down amidst uncertainty over trade talks between China and the United States continued, although the outcome remains uncertain. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery closed down by $0.31 to settle at $64.98 per barrel. Gold prices dipped ahead of US inflation report and ongoing US-China official talks which is now the focus of investors from all over the world. Front Month Comex Gold for June delivery lost $11.20 (or 0.34%) to $3320.90 per troy ounce on Tuesday. Front Month Comex Silver for June delivery lost $14.60 cents (or 0.40%) to $36.54 today.
