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The Wire
5 days ago
- Business
- The Wire
Along With the Base-Year Revision of GDP, We Need Transparency
The Union government is in the process of revising the base year of Gross Domestic Product from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Due to the complexity and enormity of the exercise, the revised series of data will only be made available on February 27, 2026. A discussion was organised on 'GDP Base Revision: Time to regain confidence' on June 16 at the India International Centre, in New. Delhi. The thrust of the discussion was to explain the methodologies adopted and the datasets utilised to estimate the Gross Value Added and the GDP. There are several concerns about the reliability of certain aspects of the 2011-12 series. The weakest area in the existing data system is the informal (or unorganised) segment of economy which contributes nearly one-third of non-agriculture GDP. For this segment, the estimates are generally prepared using what is known as the labour-input method for the base year, which are moved for subsequent years as per indicators like past trends, relevant corporate growth, volume index and so on. Categories For the purpose of surveys, enterprises are classified into two broad categories. One is the Own Account Enterprises (OAEs) i.e. those enterprises that do not employ hired workers on a fairly regular basis and the other is Establishments employing at least one hired worker on a fairly regular basis. Within the latter, enterprises employing six or more workers are categorised as Directory Establishments (DEs). In the 2011-12 series, base-year estimates of unorganised segments of Trade, Hotel and Restaurants, Telecom, Education, Health and many other sectors may have been estimated using a visibly higher GVA per worker of Establishments in rural and even DEs in urban areas. A logic used was that 'most of the establishments in urban areas are Directory Establishments, employing 6 or more workers'. The trade DE constituted amongst market units – merely 2.1% in number in the 67th (2010-11) round of the National Sample Survey Office's survey used in the base-year compilation of 2011-12. Almost similar was the structure of Trade Establishments (constituting 5.8%) in rural areas. The GVA per worker of urban Trade DEs was more than 2.4 times that of OAEs even though the latter accounted for more than 77% of enterprises. So it is quite feasible that the overall GVA in several unorganised sectors may have been over-estimated owing to use of only DE data. Unorganised sector Another issue is whether the indicator-based growth of the unorganised sector is being overestimated, resulting in higher growth of GDP. It is observed that the growth rate reflected by the relevant NSSO surveys was much lower during 2015-2022 than that reflected in the national accounts in Trade, Hotel and Restaurant, Health and Education. In all these sectors, a fixed or corporate sector growth is being applied to the unorganised sector also. Another area of concern is the owner-occupied dwellings, constituting almost 6% of the GDP. This is based on the 2011 census. Since no recent data of census is available, the new base year may have to use projections which may again turn out to be inaccurate when the new census results are released in 2027. Another example of possible over-estimation of GDP is the share of the informal segment in the Communication sector. As per official GDP data, it has increased to 7.8% in 2022-23 from 5.9% in 2011-12. It is well known that one of the major generators of revenue in the unorganised telecom sector was through the Public Call Office (PCO). Their number has been consistently and significantly declining – from 2.01 million in 2012 to 1.76 million in 2013 to 30,563 in 2023 and merely 15,374 in 2024. So, the increase in the share of the informal segment of the communication sector needs explanation. We hope that the new series will address this anomaly. Buildings In the Construction sector, pucca construction accounts for nearly 90% of total activity. Its GVA is estimated as a fixed proportion of the value of the construction materials (steel, cement, bricks, timber, bitumen and so on). This may also require a re-examination as there are changes in the mix of types of buildings, techniques of construction, productivity and inventories of building materials. Surprisingly, when the public and private corporate sector are practically on a construction spree – be it highways, airports or other infrastructure projects, the unorganised segment has grown relatively faster since 2011-12 as its share in construction has grown from 76.4% to 78.9% in 2022-23. Whether it is a reality confirmed by data or just the consequences of residuality inherent in the present methodology followed needs to be looked into by expert committees going into the revision of base year. In case of agriculture, a recent article by Jean Dreze and Christian Oldiges highlights the large gap between the cereal production (304 million tonnes in 2022-23) and authors' estimates of all its known uses (at most 235 million tonnes). High cereal inflation in recent years, despite the ban on exports and stock limits needs to be better understood and explained. Data sets The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, being a user of many datasets originating from states but mostly exercising no qualitative checks, may do well to take outside expertise in addressing the anomalies highlighted above. There is sufficient information on the possible drawbacks of using MCA-21 data for estimating the growth of even the organised sector. The MCA-21 is an e-governance initiative of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs or MCA. For example, the mismatch of actual and recorded activity, instances of non-traceability of units at the address provided, weak correlation between the actual production and the paid-up capital across sectors, are too well known to need reiteration. MCA-21 data set, undoubtedly a mine of details, requires a holistic and critical relook for its statistical utility for GVA estimation. The issue of palpably misconceived deflators is equally important. For instance, for deflating wages and salaries in the public administration, Consumer Price Index (General) was adopted in 2011-12 base year, deviating from the erstwhile practice of using Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers). It is known that government employees are compensated for dearness, as per CPI(IW), regardless of sector in which they are working. In fact, in GVA from public administration, more than 80% comes from compensation of employees, which has grown more than 75% in real terms during 2011-2022. The real growth in this item may come largely from additional employment. But employment under government is perceived to have declined or remained stagnant at best. In any case, even after accounting for increases due to the Seventh Pay Commission, as well as higher longevity or minor additions in government employment, the increase is too high. This also needs to be better explained. Reliability In order to regain confidence in India's economic growth, it is necessary that its statistical system is transparent and reliable. MoSPI therefore needs to share the lessons learned in adopting alternative methods and datasets used in the 2011-12 base change. It must elucidate on the steps proposed to avoid similar pitfalls this time. Now that several states have also announced ambitious targets of trillion-dollar state economies, there is a fear that bureaucratic machinery may be asked to manufacture data whose reliability is questionable. It is admirable that in the last one year, MoSPI has initiated interactions with user bodies. It is nevertheless germane that no confidence building measure would be as effective as sharing the exact and detailed methodology as well as the attendant micro-data. But in a worrying development, MoSPI's draft dissemination policy of data, circulated in January 2025, envisages that access to microdata will be subject to the ministry's satisfaction while so far, approval of the ministry was not required and the data was made accessible on a simple request. Indian economy has witnessed several significant changes since 2011-12. These include enormous success with digital services, gig work, quick delivery of household goods, online shopping and new consumption patterns. We hope that the new series will suitably incorporate these developments. Sanjay Kumar and N.K. Sharma retired as Additional Director General and Director General respectively from the National Statistics Organisation.
Indian Express
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
Derek O'Brien writes: Unseeing the Northeast
'Even Ganesh idols come from abroad, small-eyed Ganesh idols whose eyes don't even open properly' — Prime Minister Narendra Modi, May 27. If the Prime Minister of India can propagate a hurtful stereotype against the 4.5 crore people living in Northeast India, are you surprised that fellow Indian citizens in the Northeast are labelled? Many have borne the brunt of racial prejudice and violence for decades. In 2014, the Bezbaruah Committee was formed after a teenage student from Arunachal Pradesh was assaulted and killed in Delhi. The Committee quoted a research report which found that nine out of 10 people from the Northeast faced racial discrimination in Indian metros. Another report quoted revealed that two out of three women from the Northeast frequently suffered various forms of discrimination. The most recent instance was the tragedy of the Meghalaya honeymoon which dominated news cycles till the heartbreaking catastrophe in Ahmedabad took over. Unsubstantiated facts and fabricated reports started doing the rounds on social media, running down a state which has so many natural gems: Elephant Falls, Umiam Lake, Double Decker Living Root Bridge, Mawsmai Cave and more. There was a concerted campaign to denigrate not just Meghalaya, but the whole of Northeast India. Vile messages, from targeting dietary habits to social customs, physical appearance to language, nothing was off bounds. There is little official data in the public domain to showcase the important role played by people from Northeast India, especially in the hospitality, aviation, and health sectors. Data from National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) in 2020 suggests that one out of four women migrants from Northeastern India are engaged in the hospitality sector. Five years on, this figure might well be even higher. It also reveals that most are in jobs that are low-paid, informal, and devoid of social security benefits. I have an old connection and a special fondness for the Northeast. In 1991, I quit my job in advertising and started hosting quiz shows. During the first few years, these quizzes were held in cities across the Northeast: Guwahati, Shillong, Kohima, Imphal, Dimapur, and many more. These events were organised to promote a brand of instant noodles, which had a large market share in those parts. My professional fee for each show was Rs 2,500. Flights, trains, buses, mostly car rides — this was a beautiful opportunity to get to discover so much. To learn. To understand. To meet folks who were always welcoming. So it really stings to see people typecasting citizens from the Northeast. While writing this piece, I spoke to Tonshimla Leisan, a 30-year-old woman from Manipur, working as cabin crew in a reputed airline. Here is what she told me, 'A year ago, a group of youngsters kept looking at me and my mother in the Delhi Metro and kept laughing and I overheard them saying 'Chinese, Chi***es'. In the workplace, making a mockery of our unique names by our colleagues is another challenge we have to face. Many passengers motivate us for our hardworking and resilient nature, but others often try to put us down'. Two of the cabin crew members on Air India flight AI171, Lamnunthem Singson and Kongbrailatpam Nganthoi Sharma, were from Manipur. Lamnunthem from the Kuki-Zo community, Kongbrailatpam from the Meitei community. It did not matter who was Kuki and who was Meitei. Manipur was united in grief. Bias and othering of residents of the Eight Sisters (states) increased manifold during the pandemic. A study by the Centre for Criminology and Victimology at the National Law University, Delhi, commissioned by the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) in 2021 on racial discrimination against people from the Northeast found that 'Northeast India seamlessly fits Indians' imagination of a Chinese person' and that they 'faced an increased number of acts of hate and prejudices against them'. In the recent past, Manipur was discussed twice in Parliament. Once, when opposition parties compelled the Union government to discuss the issue by moving a No Confidence Motion in 2023, and once, through the night in April 2025. Here is what Amit Shah, the Union Home Minister, said on the floor of the House in April this year: 'President's Rule was imposed on 13 February 2025, zero violence in November, zero violence in December, zero violence in January, zero violence till 13 March and zero violence since then till today. So we should not try to create misconceptions.' Soon before the Home Minister spoke, here is what your columnist said in the Rajya Sabha: '3,80,000 kilometres. In the last 22 months, it is the distance the Prime Minister of India has travelled nationally and internationally. That is also the distance from Planet Earth to the Moon! But the Prime Minister could not take a flight to Manipur, just 2,400 kilometres away. We are discussing this in Parliament in the dead of night — at three in the morning. No TV channels, no prime time. Look at Manipur straight in the eye during the day.' The writer is MP and leader, All India Trinamool Congress Parliamentary Party (Rajya Sabha). Additional research: Ayashman Dey
The Hindu
20-06-2025
- General
- The Hindu
Analysing Internet access and digital skills in India
One important target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education. Within this broad goal, there are two important targets pertaining to Internet and digital skills. Target 4.4.1 talks about the share of youth and adult population who have some Information and Communications Technology (ICT) skill. Target 4.4.2 pertains to a degree of proficiency in digital skills. Therefore, to attain the SDG4 target of education, providing ICT infrastructure and assessing digital skills is important. The data to assess these skills were rather sparse until the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) conducted the Comprehensive Annual Modular Survey (CAMS) between July 2022 and June 2023. This is arguably the first sample survey which asks a set of questions about people's access to, and use of, digital technology. The survey was conducted across India in 3.02 lakh households and with 12.99 lakh people. At the all-India level, 76.3% of households have broadband Internet facilities. In rural areas, 71.2% of households have the facility, while in urban areas, 86.5% do. This data shows the deep penetration of the Internet in India. But there are variations across States, castes, gender, and class. In some States, more than 90% of the households have a broadband connection. These include Delhi, Goa, Mizoram, Manipur, Sikkim, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh. But in some other States, fewer than 70% have a broadband connection. These include West Bengal (69.3%), Andhra Pradesh (66.5%), Odisha (65.3%), and Arunachal Pradesh (60.2%). There are also significant variation within caste groups on the issue of broadband connectivity at home. In households in the general category, 84.1% have broadband connection, while the numbers for Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Scheduled Tribes (STs) are 77.5%, 69.1%, and 64.8% respectively. While it is significant that within all social groups, the majority of the households have broadband connectivity, OBC, SC, and ST communities are still significantly behind households in the general category in this aspect. The most striking difference predictably exists in terms of income. Generally, the monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) is used as a proxy for income, since income data at the household level is not available. From the unit-level data of CAMS, we have arranged the population from the bottom 10% to the top 10% in terms of MPCE (Chart 1). Chart 1 | The chart shows the broadband connectivity of households according to the decile classes of Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (in %) While in the lowest decile class, 71.6% households don't have broadband connectivity, the number for the highest decile class is only 1.9%. However, even for those who belong to the second lowest decile class, the majority (56.2%) have broadband connection at home. In other words, while the poorest are still on the wrong side of the digital divide, broadband connectivity improves with every decile class. Economic status is a significant determinant of broadband connectivity. The government has said that provision of high-speed Internet is a fundamental utility akin to water or electricity (Digital India website). To facilitate coverage of the poorest sections of the society, the government can think of subsidising broadband connections so that there is universal coverage. According to the CAMS report, 94.2% of rural households and 97.1% of urban households have mobile or telephone connections in their households. When we look at people aged 15 years and above, 92.4% in urban areas and 83.9% in rural areas can use mobile phones. However, a deeper look at the data shows that the use of mobile phones is not as universal as the headline numbers suggest. Table 2 shows the share of the population who use a mobile phone with an active SIM card exclusively, for making calls or accessing the Internet. The data shows that women and socially deprived sections are at a disadvantage. For example, within the general category, only 25.3% of women use mobile phones exclusively in rural areas, while the number for urban areas is 51.2%. For SCs, STs, and OBCs, the numbers are far below the general category for both men and women. While there is a lot of discussion about 5G connectivity in India, data show that just more than half the population in rural areas uses 4G, while more than 70% in urban areas use the same. A significant share of the population (40.4%) still uses mobile technology which is more primitive than 4G. The share of people with 5G connectivity is negligible in the country. To gauge digital skills, we focused on some basic tasks such as using the Internet, sending emails, copy-pasting from documents, using arithmetic operations in spreadsheets, and performing online banking transactions (Chart 3). Chart 3 | Select digital skills of the rural and urban populations of India (15 years and above) (in %) Around 53.6% of the population (15 years and above) can use the Internet in rural areas and 74% in urban areas. The proportion who can send/receive emails is even lower (20% for rural, 40% for urban). Only around 40% of the rural population can perform the copy-paste function, while 60% of the urban population can. The share of people who can perform arithmetic operations in spreadsheets is extremely low. Only 37.8% of India's population aged 15 years and above can perform online banking transactions. Subhanil Chowdhury is an Associate Professor of Economics at St. Xavier's University, Kolkata, and Samiran Sengupta is a data analyst
Time of India
03-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's literacy rate is up but these are the worrying gaps that remain
India's literacy rate is up but these are the worrying gaps that remain Manash Pratim Gohain TNN Updated: Jun 03, 2025, 17:43 IST IST Data shows that India's overall literacy rate is up - with regions in the South and East doing the best - but there are gaps in who's getting access to quality education. Mizoram (98.2%), Lakshadweep (97.3%), Kerala (95.3%), Tripura (93.7%) and Goa (93.6%) are the top five States/ Union Territories registering the highest overall literacy rates in India for people aged seven years and above, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023–24. The report, released by the National Sample Survey Office under the ministry of statistics and programme implementation, shows that India's overall literacy rate for this age group stood at 80.9%. For people aged five years and above, the national literacy rate was 79.7%. The disaggregated literacy data across all states and Union territories was based on nationally representative sampling.
Time of India
03-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Education without equity: Why India's 80.9% literacy rate fails to bridge the gender and regional divide
India's literacy saga, in the preface, is one of the triumphs. With the national literacy rates rising to 80.9% for persons aged seven and above, it is easy to decode a progress of social transformation. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now However, digging deeper into the numbers, a disturbing trend paints a grim picture. The data echoes embedded and still enshrined gender and geographical barriers that choke the promise of equitable education. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24, released by the National Sample Survey Office, puts forth a brimming paradoxical portrait. While islands of excellence such as Mizoram (98.2%), Lakshadweep (97.3%), and Kerala (95.3%) showcase what is possible when governance, inclusivity, and access converge, large swathes of India remain trapped in a cycle of systemic denial. The illusion of a literate India It is one thing to announce that four out of five Indians are literate. It is quite another to neglect that for every 100 literate men, there are still only approximately 87 literate women. That gap is etched more deeply in rural areas, where patriarchal norms are more pronounced and school dropouts among girls remain routine. In Rural Rajasthan, male literacy stands at 83.6% while female literacy lags behind at 61.8%, a gap of nearly 22 percentage points. These are not merely statistical illustrations. They are a failure of policy, of outreach, and of will. Geography as destiny: Rural India left behind India's rural-urban divide in literacy is more than an urban-rural mismatch; it is a reflection of a fractured federal structure where resource allocation remains deeply skewed. Urban India boasts a literacy rate of 88.9%, but rural India trails far behind at 77.5%. In Madhya Pradesh, the contrast is glaring: rural literacy stands at 71.6%, urban literacy at 85.7%, a yawning gap of over 14 percentage points. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now In Bihar, the rural literacy rate is 72.1% and the urban rate is 83.2%. The rural areas continue to suffer from dilapidated schools, chronic teacher shortages, and abysmally low investment in girls' education. The result? Literacy remains a privilege of the city, not a right of the village. Women and the weight of cultural burden In states like Rajasthan, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, the gender divide is not incidental; it is structural. These are states where girls are still married off early, where school becomes optional after puberty, and where every kilometer to the classroom can be an unsafe, unforgiving journey. Rajasthan's gender literacy gap — a staggering 20.1% — is a stark reminder that educational equity cannot be achieved through policy pronouncements alone. In states like Rajasthan, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, the gender and geographical divide is not incidental, it is structural. These are states which still witness early marriage of girls, where schools become optional after girls hit puberty, and where every kilometre to the classroom can be unsafe. Rajasthan's startling gender literacy gap is a reminder that educational equity cannot be attained through policy pronouncements alone. The uneven triumph of India's literacy mission That Mizoram can boast of a female literacy rate of 97% while rural Madhya Pradesh stagnates at 62.6% should ring alarm bells in the corridors of power. The literacy movement in India has not failed, but it has failed to be fair. Kerala model, entailing early social reform and sustained by public education investments, stands tall as an exemplary example. But its replication remains symbolic than strategic elsewhere. Academics in many northern and central Indian states are still marred by poverty, patriarchy, and politics. What the numbers hide, and what they reveal Literacy, as defined by the PLFS, is the mere ability to read and write with understanding in any language. However, when the benchmark is set so low, what are we truly clapping for? India stands at a precipice. The numbers are motivating, yes, but the shadows they cast are too dark to be neglected. The next chapter of India's development story must not be about inflating percentages, but about breaking the silence. The silence of girls denied classrooms, of villages denied teachers, and of millions denied the dignity of education. Literacy must mean liberation Literacy must transcend the number maze. It must lead to empowerment. The fact that in 2025, a nation with 80.9% literacy still sees girls drop out of school, and children in rural areas craving to study better is an indictment of its collective conscience Yes, India has inched closer to literacy for all, but it has yet to arrive morally. Until every girl in every village can read, write, and dream without fear and restriction, the celebration must wait. Because education is not a privilege - it is a fundamental right, the foundation upon which all other rights and freedoms are built.
