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BBC News
3 days ago
- Business
- BBC News
Why employment figures aren't up to the job
Unemployment in Scotland is down, while it has risen in the rest of the monthly figures on the jobs market tell us the share of the adult population in Scotland searching for a job between March and May was down to 3.7%, while it was up to 4.7% across the UKThat seems like good news for the Scottish economy. But can these figures be trusted? According to the people who compile them no, they can't, and be careful how you use margin of error for the Scottish figure is 0.7 percentage points either way, so unemployment could be 3% or 4.4%. And while there's a smaller margin on the UK figure, it means that the Scottish figure could be higher than the UK one, but probably isn't. Such numbers are no longer given the stamp of approval as National Statistics. Why? I'll come back to let's look at some numbers that are more reliable. They come from HM Revenue and Customs which - as many of us know - takes tax off employed people's pay at source in the month it is collection agency knows the number of people on payrolls, how that number varies, and how median pay for employees is changing. They can do that at a Scottish level as well the UK and other bits of the Scotland, that tells us there were more than 2.5 million people in payrolled jobs in June. And since June of last year there's been a fall in that total of 16,000. With more data due, they'll revise that figure next reliable way of counting captures only one element of the number of people seeking work in any month - the claimant count of those seeking benefits due to unemployment. Lots of people who are unemployed do not claim or don't qualify for claimant count hasn't changed much over the past three years. The newly-published figure is 107,200 claimants in Scotland last month - up 1,800 on the previous month, and down 1,300 on June last year. How has pay been affected? According to HMRC, median employee pay in the month to June was up 5.4% and earning £2,546. (A reminder: if all employees were lined up, the median would be the person in the middle.)Across the UK, that figure rose faster, at 5.6%. And when you take inflation into account - at 3.6% we learned this week - real earnings rose by 1.8%.That does not include self-employed workers. There are very poor stats on them until a long time later because they don't declare their income, or even if they've been working, until several months after the end of the financial year. Earnings this month have to be declared by the end of January 2027. The figures filed in January this year were for earnings up to 20 months other measure of earnings from the ONS is from a survey of British workers taken between March and May, including the self-employed but not including Northern Ireland (for reasons I haven't yet discovered).That increase in average monthly earnings was 5% in cash terms. That's down from 5.3% in the previous three months, December to February. And if you exclude bonuses, it's the lowest rate of increased earnings for nearly three years, reflecting the fall also in price you're in the public sector, average monthly earnings were up 5.5% in the year to spring, in the private sector it was 4.9%. The real increase, after accounting for price inflation up to those spring months, was again 1.8%. But if you include housing costs, only a 1% real boost to your spending power. This takes us back into the murky statistics of the Labour Force Survey. It's carried out throughout the year by the ONS. It used to be reliable and statistically sound, but since the pandemic, things have gone badly wrong with partly because survey response rates from the public have fallen sharply. It seems we're not as willing to engage with people asking us questions about our working lives and our earnings, particularly younger also because the ONS embarked on a change in the way it gathers information, moving from face-to-face-interviews to online questionnaires. It planned that transition badly, and the stats that it gathered ceased to be ONS claims things are turning around. They're getting more people in the survey, down from 84,000 every three months to 44,000 when, to quote an ONS source, things were "truly awful". That's risen to nearly 70,000 people it's getting better, but still not certificated as sound. And don't bother comparing the most recent survey figures for March to May with last year, or the year if you dig into these figures, you'll find that big range of possible outcomes. For instance, the estimated increase in the number of Scots in employment in March to May was plus 22,000, but that could be wrong, by plus or minus 74,000. So there's a reasonable chance that the number it matter? Yes, because in making policy and distributing funds, those in government need to have the best information about the economy. What about people who can't work because of ill-health? The Bank of England's chief economist complained to the ONS about the difficulty of setting interest rates when the employment figures cannot be take the concern about the number of people who are not available for work, and classified as economically inactive. They're a big focus of government benefits bill for people who are economically inactive due to long-term illness has been rising very steeply. The government came badly unstuck when it sought to cut entitlement to that welfare benefit, and was forced into a do they know how many people are not able to work because of ill-health, or would like to work if they got more help, or have no intention of working? They look to the ONS UK-wide figures are more reliable, because there's a much bigger sample. But even with the increased sample, the margin for error when taking only parts of the UK can leave much uncertainty. Within the Scottish cohort in the most recent numbers, the number of economically inactive people is estimated to be 756,000, but that could be out in either direction by up to 68, ONS has done a full reversal of the move to online questionnaires, at least for the meantime. It plans a long-term shift back to using online questionnaires, while avoiding the mistakes made in the past few years. For now, the survey is based on face-to-face interviews for the first encounter and five follow-up phone calls and online questionnaires with the same people in each of the next five quarters. Change is coming There have been other foul-ups in collecting the stats, including a hiatus in producer prices. In clearing up the mess at ONS, the boss went quietly in May, citing health reasons. Sir Ian Diamond was previously principal of Aberdeen University, where his pay-off was the subject of national independent inquiry into the ONS was set up in April and reported last month, referring to big problems with the management style on Sir Ian's watch, where people were unable to challenge the workload of reform while continuing round-the-calendar workload was unrealistic, bosses did not want to hear unwelcome news, the inquiry found it unsurprising that senior people were leaving, and the quality of output was declining. Last week, ONS chair Sir Robert Chote quit his post, after being told by the government that new leadership was needed, along with integrity in the there are changes being made to the way the ONS is run, with a recommendation from the inquiry report that an experienced change manager is brought in, while someone else leads on the crunching of numbers.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Where inflation jumped in June – and where it eased
Sharp rises in the cost of air and train travel, along with a jump in the price of food and clothing, helped push the UK's overall rate of inflation in June to its highest level for nearly a year and a half. The average cost of train tickets was 8.4% higher last month than a year earlier, compared with a 4.9% increase in May. Air tickets swung from being 3.9% lower year on year in May to 0.5% higher last month: the largest June increase in fares since 2018, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Annual food price inflation also pushed up the cost of living, hitting the highest level since February 2024 – at 4.5% including non-alcoholic drinks, up from 4.4% in May. This marked the third month in a row of rising food prices. Inflation accelerated both for women's clothes, where prices were up 2.3% annually in June compared with 1.5% in May, and men's clothes, up 1.0% compared with 0.1%. Children's clothes were affected as well, with the average cost down 2.1% year on year last month, a smaller fall than the 3.4% drop in May, reflecting a rise in prices in shops. Among household groceries, inflation picked up pace in June for margarine, butter, whole milk, dried fruit, yoghurt, mineral water and cheese. Both petrol and diesel recorded a negative rate of inflation last month, but by a smaller margin than in May, indicating a jump in the cost of filling up at the pumps. The average price of petrol in June was down 9.5% year on year, compared with a fall of 11.0% the previous month, while diesel was down 8.6% compared with a previous drop also of 11.0%. Not everything saw a rise in cost last month, however. Items where prices fell faster year on year in June than in May included olive oil, sugar and rice, along with kitchenware such as cookers, washing machines and dishwashers. Inflation eased for ice cream, which stood at just 0.5% in June compared with 7.6% in May, as well as for the breakfast essentials of fruit juice, cereal, coffee and tea. Below are some examples of how the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate has eased or accelerated. Two figures are listed for each item: the average rise in price in the 12 months to May, followed by the average rise in price in the 12 months to June. – Examples where annual inflation has accelerated, ranked by the size of change: Refrigerators/freezers: May down 5.5%, June up 1.7%Margarine/other vegetable fats: May up 1.2%, June up 7.8%Passenger air travel: May down 3.9%, June up 0.5%Passenger train travel: May up 4.9%, June up 8.4%Children's footwear: May down 0.8%, June up 1.9%Whole milk: May up 5.9%, June up 8.4%Dried fruit/nuts: May up 4.9%, June up 7.4%Children's clothes: May down 3.4%, June down 2.1%Yoghurt: May up 1.9%, June up 3.0%Mineral water: May up 3.9%, June up 5.0%Men's clothes: May up 0.1%, June up 1.0%Women's clothes: May up 1.5%, June up 2.3%Cheese/curd: May up 4.9%, June up 5.2% – Examples where annual inflation has eased: Edible ices/ice cream: May up 7.6%, June up 0.5%Cookers: May up 2.3%, June down 2.1%Olive oil: May down 6.0, June down 9.6%Irons: May down 3.3%, June down 6.4%Fruit/vegetable juices: May up 6.4%, June up 3.6%Breakfast cereals: May up 4.8%, June up 2.2%Coffee: May up 13.9%, June up 12.3%Chocolate: May up 17.7%, June up 16.3%Sugar: May down 1.3%, June down 2.6%Washing machines/dryers/dishwashers: May down 1.2%, June down 2.0%Tea: May up 1.2%, June up 0.5%New cars: May up 3.5%, June up 3.1%Rice: May down 2.9%, June down 3.1% Sign in to access your portfolio
The Independent
4 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
Where inflation jumped in June – and where it eased
Sharp rises in the cost of air and train travel, along with a jump in the price of food and clothing, helped push the UK's overall rate of inflation in June to its highest level for nearly a year and a half. The average cost of train tickets was 8.4% higher last month than a year earlier, compared with a 4.9% increase in May. Air tickets swung from being 3.9% lower year on year in May to 0.5% higher last month: the largest June increase in fares since 2018, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Annual food price inflation also pushed up the cost of living, hitting the highest level since February 2024 – at 4.5% including non-alcoholic drinks, up from 4.4% in May. This marked the third month in a row of rising food prices. Inflation accelerated both for women's clothes, where prices were up 2.3% annually in June compared with 1.5% in May, and men's clothes, up 1.0% compared with 0.1%. Children's clothes were affected as well, with the average cost down 2.1% year on year last month, a smaller fall than the 3.4% drop in May, reflecting a rise in prices in shops. Among household groceries, inflation picked up pace in June for margarine, butter, whole milk, dried fruit, yoghurt, mineral water and cheese. Both petrol and diesel recorded a negative rate of inflation last month, but by a smaller margin than in May, indicating a jump in the cost of filling up at the pumps. The average price of petrol in June was down 9.5% year on year, compared with a fall of 11.0% the previous month, while diesel was down 8.6% compared with a previous drop also of 11.0%. Not everything saw a rise in cost last month, however. Items where prices fell faster year on year in June than in May included olive oil, sugar and rice, along with kitchenware such as cookers, washing machines and dishwashers. Inflation eased for ice cream, which stood at just 0.5% in June compared with 7.6% in May, as well as for the breakfast essentials of fruit juice, cereal, coffee and tea. Below are some examples of how the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate has eased or accelerated. Two figures are listed for each item: the average rise in price in the 12 months to May, followed by the average rise in price in the 12 months to June. – Examples where annual inflation has accelerated, ranked by the size of change: Refrigerators/freezers: May down 5.5%, June up 1.7%Margarine/other vegetable fats: May up 1.2%, June up 7.8%Passenger air travel: May down 3.9%, June up 0.5%Passenger train travel: May up 4.9%, June up 8.4%Children's footwear: May down 0.8%, June up 1.9%Whole milk: May up 5.9%, June up 8.4%Dried fruit/nuts: May up 4.9%, June up 7.4%Children's clothes: May down 3.4%, June down 2.1%Yoghurt: May up 1.9%, June up 3.0%Mineral water: May up 3.9%, June up 5.0%Men's clothes: May up 0.1%, June up 1.0%Women's clothes: May up 1.5%, June up 2.3%Cheese/curd: May up 4.9%, June up 5.2% – Examples where annual inflation has eased: Edible ices/ice cream: May up 7.6%, June up 0.5%Cookers: May up 2.3%, June down 2.1%Olive oil: May down 6.0, June down 9.6%Irons: May down 3.3%, June down 6.4% Fruit /vegetable juices: May up 6.4%, June up 3.6%Breakfast cereals: May up 4.8%, June up 2.2%Coffee: May up 13.9%, June up 12.3%Chocolate: May up 17.7%, June up 16.3%Sugar: May down 1.3%, June down 2.6%Washing machines/dryers/dishwashers: May down 1.2%, June down 2.0%Tea: May up 1.2%, June up 0.5%New cars: May up 3.5%, June up 3.1%Rice: May down 2.9%, June down 3.1%
The Sun
4 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
UK inflation jumps to 3.6% as food prices soar – what it means for YOUR money
THE UK's rate of inflation rose in June putting pressure on household budgets. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the CPI measure hit 3.6% in the 12 months to June. It comes after the figure measured 3.4% in May, up from 3.5% the month before. The latest figures will come as a blow to households already struggling with a high cost of living.
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First Post
12-06-2025
- Business
- First Post
UK's economy shrinks more than expected, Trump's trade war hits it hard
National Statistics revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in April, marking the worst monthly drop since October 2023 read more Cargo is loaded onto the container ship MH Perseus, following its arrival from New Orleans, U.S., at the Port of Southampton, Southampton, Britain, April 3, 2025. Source: Reuters The UK economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in April, more than what experts and economists expected as taxes rose and exports to US nosedived. Businesses scaled back investment plans and slashed jobs, pushing the economy into reverse. Earlier, economists predicted 0.1 per cent contraction. The latest figure from the Office for National Statistics reveals that it's the worst monthly drop since October 2023, following positive growth rate of 0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent in March and February, respectively. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump's tariff war bites Economists earlier predicted that US President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs were expected to hit UK exports to the world's largest economy. 'After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,' Liz McKeown, an ONS director of economic statistics, was quoted as saying by the Guardian. In the same period, manufacturing dropped by 0.6 per cent, mainly due to cuts in auto industry output. The UK's auto sector suffered mainly because of the US 25 per cent levy on auto imports. (More to follow)
