Latest news with #NaveenThukral
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15 minutes ago
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China's soymeal glut raises demand doubts ahead of US soybean export season
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -China's appetite for soybeans is likely to weaken during the peak U.S. marketing season later this year, as record imports earlier in 2025 and tepid demand from animal feed producers have pushed up soymeal inventories at home, trade sources said. The world's biggest soybean importer has yet to book U.S. cargoes for the fourth quarter, with traders closely monitoring talks in Stockholm aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes at the centre of the U.S.-China trade war. A slowdown in Chinese demand could pressure Chicago soybean futures, which are already down for a second consecutive week on expectations of a bumper U.S. harvest. [GRA/] China's soymeal futures fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday amid ample supplies. In the physical market, spot soymeal in north China was quoted at 2,925 yuan ($408) per metric ton, down 6.5% from 3,130 yuan a year ago, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong province-based consultancy Sublime China Information. "If third-quarter prices stay weak and crushers face losses, fourth-quarter soybean purchases may fall short of expectations," Wang said. The last quarter of the year is typically the main U.S. soybean marketing season. China's overall soybean imports hit a record high in May and their second-highest level in June, boosting oilseed processing and leading to a buildup in soymeal inventories, traders said. CRUSHER SHUTDOWNS The surplus is straining China's crushing plants, with some already shutting down due to storage constraints. "Small-scale shutdowns have already begun at crushing plants in regions like south China primarily because soybean meal has accumulated with no room for more stock," said a Shanghai-based trader, adding that a broader suspension was "highly likely". Crush margins in Rizhao, China's main processing hub, have been negative since mid-May. The glut has been worsened by weak demand from animal feed producers amid sluggish meat consumption in the world's top pork market. Crushers will face "huge soymeal stock pressure" over the next one to two months, said Cheang Kang Wei, vice president at StoneX in Singapore. Authorities have pledged to cut breeding sow numbers, curb new capacity, and reduce soymeal use in feed to stabilise meat prices after steep declines this year, measures analysts say will further limit soymeal consumption. China's purchases of Argentine soymeal, amid high tariffs of U.S. beans, in the last few weeks are likely to add to the glut. "Even with such big supply of soymeal in the local market, it is profitable to import meal from Argentina," said a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company. "This will only add to the stocks of soymeal." A trade deal with Washington could shift buying patterns. "If a trade deal is reached, Chinese buyers could resume U.S. purchases for the fourth quarter, as prices are favourable without tariffs," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. ($1 = 7.1767 Chinese yuan)
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exclusive-China signs first Argentine soymeal deal under threat of US trade war disruptions
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Chinese firms have booked the first soymeal cargo from Argentina since Beijing approved Argentine imports in 2019, as China's animal feed industry looks to broaden its supply options to mitigate potential disruptions from the U.S.-China trade war. Several Chinese feed makers have jointly signed the deal to purchase 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal for July shipment, four trade sources told Reuters on Thursday. "This is just a test case," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, which sells soybeans to China. "If it goes through China's inspection and quarantine, we expect more deals." The cargo, purchased at $360 per ton on a CNF (cost and freight) basis, is expected to arrive in southern Guangdong province in September, the sources said. China is the world's biggest consumer of the protein-rich animal feed raw material but produces most of it by crushing soybeans mainly imported from Brazil and the United States. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soy oil and meal. Chinese buyers have been scooping up Brazilian soybeans and shunning U.S. exports due to high tariffs imposed during the ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington. The Singapore-based trader told Reuters that the Chinese feed makers' purchase from Argentina was part of an effort to safeguard supplies in the event the trade war has a lasting impact on imports of U.S. soybeans. Lower prices for Argentine meal compared to the locally produced product were also encouraging the move, traders said. China opened its market to Argentine soymeal in 2019 after years of resistance that was motivated by a desire to protect its domestic crushing industry. Market participants at the time said the decision was prompted by the U.S.-China trade war during U.S. President Donald Trump's first administration. Despite the approval, no purchases of bulk cargoes of Argentine soymeal had been recorded until now, according to Chinese customs data. China imported about 30,000 tons of soymeal for the entire year in 2024, mainly from Denmark, customs data showed. Error al recuperar los datos Inicia sesión para acceder a tu cartera de valores Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Chinese feed makers sign first bulk deal for Argentine soymeal since 2019, sources say
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Chinese feed makers have booked a deal for 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal for July shipment, marking the country's first such purchase since China granted import approval for the product in 2019, four trade sources told Reuters on Thursday. The cargo was jointly purchased by several Chinese feed makers and is expected to arrive in September in southern China's Guangdong province, the sources said. China is the world's biggest consumer of the protein-rich animal feed raw material but produces most of it by crushing soybeans mainly imported from Brazil and the United States. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soy oil and meal. Chinese feed makers are trying to ensure supplies if Beijing's trade war with the U.S. curbs soybean purchases, the trader said. The soymeal cargo was sold at $360 per ton on a CNF (cost and freight) basis, they added. "This is just a test case. Some companies have got together and booked 30,000 tons. If it goes through China's inspection and quarantine, we expect more deals," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, which sells soybeans to China. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
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Exclusive-Chinese feed makers sign first bulk deal for Argentine soymeal since 2019, sources say
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Chinese feed makers have booked a deal for 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal for July shipment, marking the country's first such purchase since China granted import approval for the product in 2019, four trade sources told Reuters on Thursday. The cargo was jointly purchased by several Chinese feed makers and is expected to arrive in September in southern China's Guangdong province, the sources said. China is the world's biggest consumer of the protein-rich animal feed raw material but produces most of it by crushing soybeans mainly imported from Brazil and the United States. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soy oil and meal. Chinese feed makers are trying to ensure supplies if Beijing's trade war with the U.S. curbs soybean purchases, the trader said. The soymeal cargo was sold at $360 per ton on a CNF (cost and freight) basis, they added. "This is just a test case. Some companies have got together and booked 30,000 tons. If it goes through China's inspection and quarantine, we expect more deals," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, which sells soybeans to China. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
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Weak Chinese demand leaves Australia with too much wheat
By Peter Hobson and Naveen Thukral CANBERRA/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Australian wheat inventories will likely be much higher than last year at the end of the season, pressuring prices, because of a drop in Chinese imports and competition from ample supplies out of rival exporter Russia, analysts and traders said. A fire sale of stored grain may be necessary to clear space before the new wheat harvest in the last quarter of the year, which would weigh on benchmark Chicago futures already trading near their lowest since 2020 because of abundant global supply. [GRA/] Australia sent just 546,000 metric tons of wheat to China during the October to March period, the first six months of its marketing season, down from 2.9 million tons in the first six months of the 2023/24 season and 4.4 million tons in the same period in 2022/23, Australian customs data show. Shipments from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, have also remained strong despite the second quarter typically being its pre-harvest lean export season. The next Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest, including Russia's, will ramp up in coming weeks, pouring cheap grain onto the market and limiting Australia's export prospects, said Vitor Pistoia, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney. "If the current pace of Australian exports continues, we're going to have 5-6 million tons of carryover from last season's crop," he said. "We are building up a massive problem. It's not like the global market is short of supply," he said, adding that it may lead to mass selling of grain that could push prices towards A$300 ($194) a ton from between A$325 to A$350 now. Total carryover including grain from past seasons could be as high as 8 million tons, said a source at an international grain trader based in Australia. "If the new season crops look good, it can become a storage capacity issue. It forces people to sell cheaper into the export market to clear space," the source said. Australia's end-of-season wheat stocks have averaged 3.3 million tons in the last five years, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Four million tons is comfortable," the source said. "More than 6 is getting difficult." Analysts expect Australia to produce 28 million-34 million tons of wheat this year. That would be down from last year's 34.1 million tons but well above the ten-year average of 27.6 million tons, according to government data. Chinese buyers booked four or five 55,000-ton shipments of Australian wheat around the start of May, but these are the only new Chinese purchases this calendar year and have not been followed up with more. China, which was experiencing hot and dry in key growing regions, is likely to see rainfall in those areas through next Tuesday which could further reduce demand for imported wheat. Russia, meanwhile, has continued to ship grain at competitive prices even during its off season, said a grain trader in Singapore. "We were hoping more Australian wheat cargoes would reach destinations in the Middle East and Africa," they said. "There were expectations that Russia would have less to export." ($1 = 1.5530 Australian dollars)
