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South Sudan took 8 migrants from the US. It wants something in return.
South Sudan took 8 migrants from the US. It wants something in return.

Yahoo

time35 minutes ago

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

South Sudan took 8 migrants from the US. It wants something in return.

South Sudan has told the Trump administration that it would consider accepting many more migrants deported from the U.S., but it has some requests of its own. The East African nation has urged the Trump administration to lift sanctions on one of its top officials, according to three people familiar with the matter and diplomatic correspondence viewed by POLITICO. The people, like others in this story, were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy and ongoing negotiations. South Sudanese officials have also asked the Trump administration to walk back sweeping visa revocations for its citizens that Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued in April, to reactivate a bank account at the New York Federal Reserve that allows the country to conduct transactions in dollars and to support its efforts to prosecute South Sudan's first vice president, Riek Machar, who is being held under house arrest. The Trump administration has not agreed to any of those requests — and Juba has a steep hill to climb to improve relations with the U.S. after years of tensions amid civil war, a slide into authoritarianism and systemic human rights violations. 'South Sudan will continue to be an ally of the United States, support the policies of the United States, and especially the policies of the current president, his excellency, President Donald Trump,' South Sudanese Ambassador to Washington Santino Dicken said in an interview. 'But mostly, we would love also that our partners in the administration understand that as for the government of South Sudan, to convince its citizens freely, … we are asking the U.S. administration to lift visa restrictions on South Sudanese passport holders.' After a six-week-long legal battle, the U.S. this month completed the deportations of eight men to South Sudan, only one of whom is from that country, part of an administration-wide effort to deport thousands of people to third-party countries when their home countries refuse to take them back. The eight men have been placed in a guarded complex in South Sudan while its government works to repatriate them to their home countries, according to two of the people. The State Department has not officially requested to move more people to South Sudan, but the ongoing talks with South Sudanese officials — a delegation including the foreign minister met with senior Africa adviser Massad Boulos and other top U.S. officials earlier this month — offer a glimpse into how various governments see Trump's aggressive immigration strategy as a chance to improve standing with the U.S. and leverage their own requests. And it helps explain why the Trump administration — in its quest to find stopover nations for various asylum seekers and convicted criminals — is turning to Africa, a continent where administration officials feel they can make deals. Trump or his aides have raised the prospect of sending such deportees at every meeting with African leaders, according to one of the three people familiar with the asks, and the Department of Homeland Security this month sent five men to Eswatini, a country of 1.2 million people bordering South Africa. The administration is also in talks with Rwanda to accept asylum-seekers and other migrants who cannot return home, according to the three people familiar with the matter and a fourth person with insight into the negotiations. 'These are countries that are keen to appease the administration … because they want something back,' said Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, an independent, nonpartisan think tank. 'So whether it is tariff concessions — or in the case of African countries, many of them are under the threat of being placed under a travel ban or their diplomats will be prevented from coming from the U.S. — these are the stakes that are all being used to get these agreements, to get these countries to accept the nationals. And they also get paid.' A White House official would not comment on the 'private discussions' with South Sudan but said administration officials meet with foreign governments regularly to 'discuss many matters.' The South Sudan deal is not a formal agreement, but the administration has transmitted written deals with Eswatini and El Salvador to Congress, according to a separate person familiar with the matter. The president and his team have made such requests of at least 15 African countries, according to media reports, including Eswatini and South Sudan, though not every leader has been as amenable as the South Sudanese. Nigeria's foreign minister, Yusuf Tuggar, told local outlet Channels Television this month that African countries are under 'considerable pressure' to accept deported Venezuelans, 'some straight out of prison.' 'It will be difficult for a country like Nigeria to accept Venezuelan prisoners,' he said. 'We have enough problems of our own,' noting the pressures of his nation's ballooning population of 230 million people. Finding countries willing to accept a significant number of migrant deportees — some of whom have been convicted of violent crimes — is crucial to the Trump administration's agenda. While both Democrats and Republicans have deported people to countries where they have no previous connection, the scale of the Trump administration's effort is without precedent. That has sparked concerns from immigration lawyers and human-rights advocates who worry this administration is sending deportees to countries with a history of human rights violations, including South Sudan, a nation the State Department has warned Americans is too dangerous for all but essential personnel, and El Salvador, where migrants were sent to the country's notorious mega-prison. These places have been information black holes with lawyers, family members and lawmakers struggling to get specifics about migrants' conditions or details on the agreements between the Trump administration and foreign governments. According to an analysis by The Guardian, the U.S. has sent 8,100 people to countries not their own, mostly to Mexico, since Trump took office. While the U.S. has paid El Salvador and Eswatini to accept migrant deportees, South Sudan hopes its acceptance will pave the way for the Trump administration to consider some of its requests and to improve its standing with the United States. The U.S. is the largest donor of humanitarian aid to South Sudan, which depends on the U.S. for financial support and help mediating its internal conflicts. That's why the country is likely to accept more migrants regardless of whether the U.S. heeds its requests, according to two of the three people familiar with the matter. Negotiations between South Sudanese officials and the U.S. started soon after Rubio revoked all visas for South Sudanese passport holders in April and blocked new arrivals because the country would not accept nationals expelled from the U.S. Shortly after, South Sudan agreed to accept eight deportees from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Myanmar and Vietnam as a gesture of goodwill. The Trump administration in May extended Temporary Protected Status for South Sudanese immigrants for six months, a move that conflicts with the president's sweeping efforts to strip most nationalities of temporary deportation relief and work permits. But the U.S. also recently renewed sanctions against Benjamin Bol Mel, South Sudan's de facto No. 2 official and leading contender to succeed its ailing president, over his alleged corruption and mismanagement of public resources. That could give South Sudan an extra incentive to cooperate with U.S. demands. 'Most countries that the U.S. is talking to to take migrants, they don't have a sanctioned would-be-next president,' said one of the three people familiar with the negotiations. 'They have a particular incentive in getting along with us.' In a diplomatic note from South Sudan to the U.S. Embassy in Juba dated May 12, the country agreed to accept third-country nationals from the United States and raised several matters of concern it hoped the U.S. would consider. That included 'a request for the removal of individual targeted sanctions imposed on senior government officials of the Republic of South Sudan, specially His Excellency Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel.' It also asked the U.S. to lift the April visa restrictions, invest in oil, gas, minerals and other areas in South Sudan, and the request to support the prosecution of Riek Machar, the country's first vice president and a rival of the current president, who is under house arrest. The State Department declined to comment on its request to send migrants to South Sudan but said in a statement, 'We remain unwavering in our commitment to end illegal and mass migration and bolster America's border security. In some cases, we might work with other countries to facilitate the removal from the United States of nationals of third countries who have no legal basis to remain here.' The State Department also called on South Sudan's President Salva Kiir to 'reverse the house arrest of First Vice President Machar and for all party leaders to return to direct dialogue,' a sign that the U.S. is holding firm. The ongoing negotiations with South Sudan come after a recent Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for eight men to be deported to Juba this month. The court's decision may have helped the Trump administration turbocharge these deals after blocking a lower-court ruling that required meaningful due process for those the administration wants to send to third countries. The aim of the Trump administration's strategy in Africa is two-fold, said Chishti of the Migration Policy Institute. Many African nations have long been reluctant to take migrant deportees, so in some cases, the administration's efforts are designed to target those countries. But the deportations also play into the Trump White House's larger strategy of deterring immigrants from illegally crossing into the United States. 'This is a small number of people, when you really think about it,' he said. 'But they get the attention, and part of it is to get the attention.' Solve the daily Crossword

Job searching in 2025? It's a mess no matter how old you are
Job searching in 2025? It's a mess no matter how old you are

Business Insider

time17-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Job searching in 2025? It's a mess no matter how old you are

America may be divided over millennials spending too much on avocado toast, Gen Zers staring into the void, and boomers hoarding their wealth, but there's one thing that every generation can agree on: Career prospects are feeling extra miserable lately. One Gen Xer told Business Insider of when she learned she was laid off, "The day that I got that news, it was like going to the worst surprise party I've ever been to." "My dream job might exist," a frustrated Gen Z job seeker said. "But I'm one of 400 people applying for it." "I keep hearing employers talk about no one wanting to work, and I desperately want to work," said a millennial who struggled to find work for four years. "I can't get someone to ever sit down and talk to me." It all stems from the current economic moment in which companies are hiring at nearly the lowest rate in a decade and are looking to cut costs where they can, but it feels different depending on your career stage and employment situation. In recent months, BI has interviewed fed-up job seekers, laid-off managers, and people working past retirement age to pay the bills. Here's how each generation is experiencing the job market in 2025 — and what they're doing to cope. We want to hear from middle managers, job seekers, and people who've recently landed a job. If you're open to sharing your story, please fill out one or more of the linked Google Forms. Gen Z's entry-level opportunities are drying up The job market for 22- to 27-year-olds with a bachelor's degree or higher " deteriorated noticeably" in the first quarter of this year, the New York Federal Reserve reported. That doesn't come as a surprise to many Gen Z job seekers. "I was applying, and I felt like, 'This is so stupid because I know I'm going to get rejected,'" said 21-year-old Bella Babbitt, a 2024 grad. She said that after completing her bachelor's in just three years, it took her hundreds of applications and months of waiting tables, but she finally landed a role in media strategy by networking with a family friend. "My parents have such a different mindset, where they can't comprehend how we've applied to all these jobs and we're not getting anything," she added. For many of Babbitt's generation, it feels like their traditional pathways to success — a résumé of internships, rigorous classes, and a college degree — aren't translating to stable job offers. Cost-cutting from the White House DOGE office has slashed funding for jobs that ambitious young graduates of earlier generations used to vie for at government agencies, nonprofits, science labs, and public health centers. AI could make it harder to find entry-level options in tech, and law school demand is rising beyond what the industry can support. White-collar roles at many major corporations have been hit by layoffs or hiring freezes. Early 2020s graduates may have fallen into a hot Great Resignation market, but recent grads aren't so lucky. Solomon Jones, 26, said he's been unable to land a sports communications role after graduating in May. With $25,000 in student-loan debt, he's moved back in with his parents while he continues the job hunt. He's trying to cobble together some freelance writing work — at least until full-time hiring picks up. "The goal is to obviously get a job in the sports industry, but realistically, I know that life isn't fair," he said. "So at this point, I'm just trying to find a job, period." Zoomers have a rising unemployment rate and are losing confidence in the payoff of a college education, with some pivoting to blue-collar work. The 22-to-27 recent grad group has had a higher unemployment rate than the overall American labor force since 2021 — reversing the typical trend of young grads outperforming the broader labor market that has persisted through past recessions. "Young people are obviously not one monolithic group. Some are going to college; some started college and didn't finish," Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, previously told BI, adding, "But I don't think people always understand that this is what happens, the sort of 'first hired, first fired' phenomenon." Millennial and Gen X managers are caught in the Great Flattening Olivia Cole, 39, feels stuck after getting laid off from her product support role last October. "As most people can probably relate, it's been difficult finding something that either is an equivalent level or a step up," Cole said. Cole has done everything she believes she's supposed to do: polishing her résumé and LinkedIn profile and building out her network. Even so, she's still looking — something she sees across her cohort. "It does really seem like people are looking for those with a high level of experience or absolute newcomers," Cole said. "And as somebody in the middle, it's been a little difficult, because there's a million of us." Many millennials looking for mid-career opportunities like Cole could be in trouble: A growing strategy of reducing middle management at Big Tech and small businesses alike is focused on cutting bureaucracy and costs. As most managers today are millennials or Gen Xers, as a recent Glassdoor analysis found, they're on the layoff chopping block. The managers who remain are left with a heavier workload, including a rising number of direct reports. Gusto, a small and midsize payroll and benefits platform, found that involuntary manager terminations — firings and layoffs — had greatly affected those ages 35 to 44, rising more than 400% between January 2022 and September 2024. Job postings for management roles on the job-search platform Indeed are also trending downward. Some millennials are finding solace in seeking out others in the same boat: After Giovanna Ventola, 35, was laid off three times in three years, she founded a support group for fellow job seekers called Rhize. She said the majority of group members are over 35; many in that cohort had previously held roles such as director or vice president and were six-figure earners, she said. "They're applying for entry-level jobs because they're at the point where they're like, 'I need to do something," she said. For Gen X, the financial disruption of an unexpected layoff or career pivot can be especially dire: AARP reported in 2024 that a fifth of not-yet-retired Americans 50 and older had no retirement savings. After her second layoff in two years, 53-year-old Hilary Nordland is struggling to pay bills and feels like she will be "working forever." "I should be retiring in 12 years, and there's no way that's going to happen," she said. "I have no retirement savings." Baby boomers increasingly need jobs past retirement age For the past decade, the number of older Americans working full time has been trending upward. BI has heard from thousands of older Americans struggling to afford necessities with limited savings and Social Security. Hundreds have said they are still working full time, have picked up part-time shifts to supplement their income, or are actively looking for work. Herb Osborne, 71, works full time for a small business that makes olive oil and charcuterie accessories and reads financial documents as a hotel auditor on weekends. He said he'd had to continue working two jobs to afford the Bay Area's cost of living. "Financially, for me, it is really almost imperative that I work," he said. "I do work every day in order just to survive. And it's scary now at the age I'm at, because Social Security doesn't cover anything." In a survey published by Harris Poll and the American Staffing Association in 2024, 78% of baby boomers said they believed their age would be a contributing factor when being considered for a new position, and 53% said they thought their age limited their career opportunities. At the same time, LinkedIn reported that about 13% of previously retired baby boomers on the platform listed and then ended a retirement on their profile in 2023. Bonnie Cote, 75, is a substitute teacher near Washington, DC. She has decades of education experience and loves the work, but she said it's hard to keep finding a gig that pays enough money to supplement her Social Security, especially in her 70s. "It doesn't matter what age you are," Cote said. "You should be able to get a job."

Zoomers can't get in and boomers can't get out: The job market pressures by generation
Zoomers can't get in and boomers can't get out: The job market pressures by generation

Business Insider

time17-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Zoomers can't get in and boomers can't get out: The job market pressures by generation

America may be divided over millennials spending too much on avocado toast, Gen Zers staring into the void, and boomers hoarding their wealth, but there's one thing that every generation can agree on: career prospects are feeling extra miserable lately. One Gen Xer told Business Insider of when she learned she was laid off, "The day that I got that news, it was like going to the worst surprise party I've ever been to." "My dream job might exist," a frustrated Gen Z job seeker said. "But I'm one of 400 people applying for it." "I keep hearing employers talk about no one wanting to work, and I desperately want to work," said a millennial who struggled to find work for four years. "I can't get someone to ever sit down and talk to me." It all stems from the current economic moment in which companies are hiring at nearly the lowest rate in a decade and are looking to cut costs where they can, but it feels different depending on your career stage and employment situation. In recent months, BI has interviewed fed-up job seekers, laid-off managers, and people working past retirement age to pay the bills. Here's how each generation is experiencing the job market in 2025 — and what they're doing to cope. Gen Z's entry-level opportunities are drying up The job market for 22- to 27-year-olds with a bachelor's degree or higher " deteriorated noticeably" in the first quarter of this year, the New York Federal Reserve reported. That doesn't come as a surprise to many Gen Z job seekers. "I was applying and I felt like, 'This is so stupid because I know I'm going to get rejected,'" said 21-year-old Bella Babbitt, a 2024 grad. She told BI that after completing her bachelor's in just three years, it took her hundreds of applications and months of waiting tables, but she finally landed a role in media strategy by networking with a family friend. "My parents have such a different mindset, where they can't comprehend how we've applied to all these jobs and we're not getting anything," she added. For many of Babbitt's generation, it feels like their traditional pathways to success — a résumé of internships, rigorous classes, and a college degree — aren't translating to stable job offers. Cost-cutting from the White House DOGE office has slashed funding for jobs that ambitious young graduates of earlier generations used to vie for at government agencies, nonprofits, science labs, and public health centers. AI could make it harder to find entry-level options in tech, and law school demand is rising beyond what the industry can support. White-collar roles at many major corporations have been hit by layoffs or hiring freezes. Early 2020s graduates may have fallen into a hot Great Resignation market, but recent grads aren't so lucky. Solomon Jones, 26, said he's been unable to land a sports communications role after graduating in May. With $25,000 in student loan debt, he's moved back in with his parents while he continues the job hunt. He's trying to cobble together some freelance writing work — at least until full-time hiring picks up. "The goal is to obviously get a job in the sports industry, but realistically, I know that life isn't fair," he told BI. "So at this point, I'm just trying to find a job, period." Zoomers have a rising unemployment rate and are losing confidence in the payoff of a college education, with some pivoting to blue-collar work. The 22-to-27 recent grad group has had a higher unemployment rate than the overall American labor force since 2021 — reversing the typical trend of young grads outperforming the broader labor market that has persisted through past recessions. "Young people are obviously not one monolithic group. Some are going to college, some started college and didn't finish," Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, previously told BI, adding, "But I don't think people always understand that this is what happens, the sort of 'first hired, first fired' phenomenon." Millennial and Gen X managers are caught in the Great Flattening Olivia Cole, 39, feels stuck after getting laid off from her product support role last October. "As most people can probably relate, it's been difficult finding something that either is an equivalent level or a step up," Cole said. Cole has done everything that she says she's supposed to do: Polishing her résumé and LinkedIn profile, and building out her network. Even so, she's still looking — something she sees across her cohort. "It does really seem like people are looking for those with a high level of experience or absolute newcomers," Cole said. "And as somebody in the middle, it's been a little difficult, because there's a million of us." Many millennials looking for mid-career opportunities like Cole could be in trouble: A growing strategy of reducing middle management at Big Tech and small businesses alike is aimed at cutting bureaucracy and costs. As most managers today are millennials or Gen Xers, per a recent Glassdoor analysis, they're potentially on the layoff chopping block. The managers who remain are left with a heavier workload, including a rising number of direct reports. Gusto, a small and midsize payroll and benefits platform, found that involuntary manager terminations — firings and layoffs — have greatly affected those ages 35 to 44, rising over 400% between January 2022 and September 2024. Job postings for management roles on the job-search platform Indeed are also trending downward. Some millennials are finding solace in seeking out others in the same boat: After Giovanna Ventola, 35, was laid off three times in three years, she founded a support group for fellow job seekers called Rhize. She said that the majority of group members are over 35; many in that cohort had previously held roles like director or VP, and were six-figure earners, she said. "They're applying for entry-level jobs because they're at the point where they're like, 'I need to do something," she said. For Gen X, the financial disruption of an unexpected layoff or career pivot can be especially dire: AARP reported in 2024 that a fifth of not-yet-retired Americans 50 and older had no retirement savings. After her second layoff in two years, 53-year-old Hilary Nordland is struggling to pay bills and feels like she will be "working forever." "I should be retiring in 12 years, and there's no way that's going to happen," she said. "I have no retirement savings." Baby boomers increasingly need jobs past retirement age For the last decade, the number of older Americans working full-time has been trending upward. BI has heard from thousands of older Americans struggling to afford necessities with limited savings and Social Security. Hundreds said they are still working full-time, have picked up part-time shifts to supplement their income, or are actively looking for work. Herb Osborne, 71, works full-time for a small business that makes olive oil and charcuterie accessories and reads financial documents as a hotel auditor on weekends. He said he has to continue working two jobs to afford the Bay Area's cost of living. "Financially, for me, it is really almost imperative that I work," he said. "I do work every day in order just to survive. And it's scary now at the age I'm at, because Social Security doesn't cover anything." A survey published by Harris Poll and the American Staffing Association in 2024 found that 78% of baby boomers believe their age would be a contributing factor when being considered for a new position, and 53% think their age limits their career opportunities. At the same time, LinkedIn reported that about 13% of previously retired baby boomers on the platform listed, then ended, a retirement on their profile in 2023. Bonnie Cote, 75, is a substitute teacher near Washington, DC. She has decades of education experience and loves the work, but said it's hard to keep finding a gig that pays enough money to supplement her Social Security, especially in her 70s. "It doesn't matter what age you are," Cote told BI. "You should be able to get a job."

American puzzle: Trump's tariffs have resulted in an inflation paradox
American puzzle: Trump's tariffs have resulted in an inflation paradox

Mint

time10-07-2025

  • Business
  • Mint

American puzzle: Trump's tariffs have resulted in an inflation paradox

Next Story Mint Editorial Board Contrary to expectations, the US President's tariff hikes are yet to show up in America's cost-of-living data. Puzzling as this is, these are early days yet and trade shocks still risk setting off shudders of price instability. So far, what we have seen is a slowdown, but barely a blip on the price front. Gift this article Much like the dog that didn't bark in The Adventure of Silver Blaze by British crime writer and creator of Sherlock Holmes, Arthur Conan Doyle, one of the biggest puzzles after US President Donald Trump's 2 April edict of a 10% tariff on all imports is its remarkably subdued effect on inflation in America. Much like the dog that didn't bark in The Adventure of Silver Blaze by British crime writer and creator of Sherlock Holmes, Arthur Conan Doyle, one of the biggest puzzles after US President Donald Trump's 2 April edict of a 10% tariff on all imports is its remarkably subdued effect on inflation in America. At first, the general consensus—not limited to doomsayers—was that growth would fall and inflation rise as a direct outcome. Stagflation, or slower growth amid higher inflation, was the broad prognosis for the US economy and thence for the rest of the world's economies. So far, what we have seen instead is a slowdown for sure—US output contracted 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025—but barely a blip on the price front. How come? It calls for a closer look at the economic dynamics at play. True, Trump's more threatening country-specific 'reciprocal' tariffs that were to go into effect on 9 April were held off for 90 days, which have just ended, and the latest tariffs notified by letters sent to 14 countries will be enforced only from 1 August. In other words, we 'ain't seen nothin' yet," as Americans are given to say. Even so, the largely missing knock-on effect of a baseline tariff on prices in an economy that imports so much of what it guzzles is not easy to 'puzzle out,' a verb popularized by an earlier US president, Barack Obama. The US now has the highest average tariff since the 1930s, thanks to Trump's novel approach to trade. Add to that the dollar's big drop. The dollar index has fallen by close to 11% since the beginning of this year, making it the worst first-half for the US currency in almost half a century. Together, both should have pushed up retail prices. Yet, US data shows that its consumer price index rose just 0.1% month-on-month in May 2025. And though its annual inflation at 2.4% is above the Fed's 2% goal, a New York Federal Reserve survey released in early July sprang a surprise: earlier fears that Trump's tariffs would result in a price spike have all but disappeared. Inflation expectations are back to pre-tariff levels. One reason could be that importing companies had front-loaded their imports and piled up inventory in a bid to beat the tariff deadline. This is borne out by trade data as well. A second is that many companies chose to absorb the extra paid for imports and let margins take a hit, rather than raise retail price tags. A third is that demand driven lower by uncertainty softened the price impact, as seen in the global oil market. A fourth, one that finds favour with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is that although tariffs do result in a one-off price jump—one that businesses appear to have 'eaten' for now—it's too early to say with any confidence whether this will steepen the angle at which prices rise over longer spans of time. Also Read: Dear Trump… Nobody can glower American interest rates down In his most recent testimony to the US Congress, Powell had said the 'outlook is for higher inflation over the year," a hint that he saw this as just a lull before the storm. The summer of heating prices he anticipated may not be showing up, but some of the factors behind today's calm could come apart, while others are unreliable. The US still risks price instability worse than what Trump might expect if his August tariffs kick in. We're in mid-summer now and the inflation dog is yet to bark. But that could be because it was lulled asleep by peculiar factors. The basic laws of economics haven't broken down. Yet. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

Inflation expectations drift back down to pre-tariff levels, New York Fed survey shows
Inflation expectations drift back down to pre-tariff levels, New York Fed survey shows

CNBC

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Inflation expectations drift back down to pre-tariff levels, New York Fed survey shows

Fears earlier this year that President Donald Trump's tariffs would result in a sharp inflation spike have completely receded, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Tuesday. The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now. That's the same level it was in January — before Trump took office and began saber-rattling over trade. The level marked a 0.2 percentage point decline from May and a retreat from the 3.6% peak hit in March and April. Since April, Trump has gone from slapping across-the-board 10% tariffs plus a menu of so-called reciprocal duties against U.S. trading partner to a more conciliatory approach involving ongoing negotiations. Thus far, tariffs have yet to show up in most inflation readings. The consumer price index rose just 0.1% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though the annual inflation rate of 2.4% remains above the Fed's 2% goal. Inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively, according to the survey. While the headline inflation outlook eased, respondents still expect higher prices in several key individual categories. The survey pointed to expectations for a 4.2% increase in gas prices, 9.3% for medical care — the highest since June 2023 — and 9.1% for both college education and rent. The outlook for food price increases was unchanged at 5.5%. Employment metrics also showed some improvement, with a 1.1 percentage decrease in the expectation for a higher unemployment rate a year from now. Also, the average expectation for losing one's job fell to 14%, a 0.8 percentage point drop and the lowest reading since December.

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