29-04-2025
Split vote: Why councils in the Midlands could be divided in the local elections
Local elections don't set pulses racing - but they set the dynamic for the politics to come. The Midlands shires are traditional tory heartlands.
But Kemi Badenoch in Westminster was one of the first to admit that her party is destined to be counting losses on Friday - not gains. Currently the tories are in charge of all eleven midlands counties and unitaries being contested on Thursday - how many might they comfortably control when the votes are in?
But as the Badenoch team prepares for questions about her authority - imagine the pressures on Sir Keir Starmer's Labour team. When I was checking out opinion recently at the Newark Pensioners Luncheon Club there was still widespread disgust about the Labour's cut to Winter Fuel Allowances and the 'freebies' declared by winning cabinet members.
Rightly or wrongly these national concerns may take precedence over decisions about who is best to run planning transport and social care.
For the first time in many years - voting intentions will be split in many directions. Disaffected Conservatives may switch to Nigel Farage's Reform UK - as will disaffected Labour voters.
The Liberal Democrats are starting from a low base -but they are well aware that the Green Party could scoop up gains at their expense. And there is a big array of Independent candidates to choose from. A grouping forms the main opposition in Nottinghamshire.
Reform's poll ratings are impressive - and the fall-out for defeated parties could be huge if the party manage to take control of a council. They have focussed electioneering in Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire.
But of course were they to become winners - as Labour have discovered- it's often harder to stay so popular as the tough reckoning begins with tight budgets and ever increasing demands.
Nigel Farage has been out on the election trail and drawing big crowds in the midlands. I remember the last man who did that. His name was Jeremy Corbyn.
The biggest issues for voters remain the cost of living and the perennial problem of potholes in the roads. Turnout is never big at local level. But the fall-out could be big - for the party leaders who now realise they are just one of three four, five or six.
