Latest news with #NickTuffley
Business Times
19-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
New Zealand's economic recovery gathers pace as exports jump
[WELLINGTON] New Zealand's economic recovery from a 2024 recession gathered pace in the first quarter as the central bank lowered interest rates and exports surged. Gross domestic product rose 0.8 per cent in the three months to March, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.5 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday (Jun 19) in Wellington. The result was slightly better than the 0.7 per cent growth expected by economists. While the economy is still smaller than it was a year ago, its recovery will be welcomed by the government as it makes growth a key priority ahead of a 2026 election. That ambition is being tested by the uncertainty arising from global trade tensions, which is damping spending and investment and raising concerns that the expansion may weaken. 'Repair of the economy is underway but significant risks are apparent,' said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. 'Data since March suggest a sizeable deceleration in economic activity. Geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East presents upside risks to inflation and therefore pricing behaviour.' The New Zealand dollar was little changed after the GDP report, buying 60.29 US cents at 11.30 am in Wellington. The yield on two-year government bonds rose two basis points to 3.44 per cent. RBNZ easing Buoying the economy, farm production improved in the quarter while food manufacturing also lifted, the statistics agency said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Taken together with high global commodity prices, that has seen a boost to rural incomes and growth in the regions, even as the cities have been encumbered by a sluggish housing market and cautious consumers. Lower interest rates are expected to underpin steady growth in 2025 even as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hints it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle. The central bank has cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) aggressively, reducing the benchmark by 225 basis points since August to 3.25 per cent. Still, last month it removed an explicit easing bias ahead of its July decision. Investors no longer see much chance of the OCR falling below 3 per cent this year, swaps data show. 'With the economy regaining its footing sooner than expected after last year's sharp downturn, we continue to expect that the RBNZ will take the opportunity to pause and assess the situation at its July OCR review,' said Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac in Auckland. Growth was stronger than the 0.4 per cent that both the RBNZ and the Treasury Department forecast. Treasury Chief Economist Dominick Stephens yesterday said that while recent data has been weak, he still expects growth to pick up in 2025. From a year earlier, GDP fell 0.7 per cent, which was less than economists' estimated 0.8 per cent decline. Still, the annual GDP contraction in the fourth quarter was revised to 1.3 per cent from 1.1 per cent. Key drivers of the first-quarter expansion were farming and manufacturing, today's report showed. Manufacturing grew 2.4 per cent and goods exports increased 3.6 per cent, led by primary products. Tourism fell. GDP per capita rose 0.5 per cent from the fourth quarter, its second straight gain after more than two years of decline. BLOOMBERG
Scoop
17-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Rural Resurgence Powers South Island Into Lead In ASB's Latest Regional Economic Scoreboard
Canterbury in top spot for Q1 2025 South Island still proving more robust than the North Trouble in the Capital: Wellington remains in 15th place Strong commodity prices and soaring food and fibre exports have helped power the South Island to a strong start to 2025, with Canterbury, West Coast, Otago and Marlborough in the top four spots of ASB's Regional Economic Scoreboard for Q1. Canterbury has kicked off 2025 on a high, securing first place off the back of a broad-based recovery across retail, housing and consumer confidence. 'The scoreboard is reflecting what many in the regions already know - rural New Zealand is doing the heavy lifting right now,' says Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. 'South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture.' The rural-led momentum comes as the Government forecasts record-breaking export earnings for New Zealand's food and fibre sector, which are expected to rise 12% to $54.6 billion in the year ahead. Fieldays 2025 has put a national spotlight on the sector's strength, with farmers, growers, fishers and foresters driving a powerful export rebound. According to Tuffley, 'We're seeing the impact of that performance filter through to local economies, particularly in regions like the West Coast, which has posted its best result in four years, and Canterbury, where rural strength is boosting confidence across the board.' The West Coast made a remarkable leap into second place, thanks to robust construction activity and a rebound in retail sales. Meanwhile, Otago slipped to third, ending its long streak of scoreboard wins, despite Queenstown's ongoing tourism strength. In contrast, Wellington ranked 15th for the third consecutive quarter, with Auckland in 10th place. While inflation is easing and interest rates have been cut, households are still feeling the squeeze. 'It's clear that the rural and urban economies seem to be moving at different speeds across the country,' says Tuffley. 'It's regional New Zealand, particularly the food and fibre sector, that's doing the hard work of pulling the national economy forward. Meanwhile, places like Wellington continue to face a range of challenges including employment, construction and consumer confidence.' Looking ahead, ASB sees early signs of recovery emerging across the country, aided by the Reserve Bank's 225 basis points of OCR cuts to date. However, global uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the pace and strength of that recovery. The full ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at our ASB Economic Insights page: @ASBBank @ASBMarkets About the ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard The NZ Regional Economic Scoreboard takes the latest quarterly regional statistics and ranks the economic performance of New Zealand's 16 Regional Council areas. The fastest growing regions gain the highest ratings, and a good performance by the national economy raises the ratings of all regions. Ratings are updated every three months, and are based on 8 measures, including population, employment, retail trade, house prices, house sales, construction, consumer confidence, and new car registration. ASB Bank Helping you get one step ahead. In 1847, ASB opened as the Auckland Savings Bank with the pledge: 'to serve the community; to grow and to help Kiwis grow'. And that is very much what ASB is about today. ASB is a leading provider of integrated financial services in New Zealand including retail, business and rural banking, funds management and insurance. ASB strives to consistently provide its customers with outstanding service and innovative financial solutions. They're dedicated to providing simple financial products that allow their customers to bank with them how and when they want. We all have our own ways to measure progress, and our own stories about the things that matter to us. Whatever way you choose to measure progress, and whatever your goals, ASB is there to help you get one step ahead.
NZ Herald
17-06-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
South Island regions dominate ASB economic rankings, Auckland 10th
"South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture," says ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley. Photo / Mark Mitchell South Island regions have powered into the lead in ASB's Q1 Regional Economic Scoreboard. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said southern regions were benefiting from strong commodity prices and soaring food and fibre exports. Canterbury ranked number one, followed by the West Coast, Otago and
RNZ News
29-05-2025
- Business
- RNZ News
Housing confidence hits 14 year high, ASB survey shows
The survey indicates a net 28 percent of respondents believe it's a good time to buy a house, compared with 23 percent in the previous survey. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon Housing confidence is at its highest level in 14 years according to an ASB survey. The survey for the three months ended in April indicates a net 28 percent of respondents believed it was a good time to buy a house , which compared with 23 percent in the previous survey. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said a combination of stable house prices, high listing levels and lower mortgage rates were likely to be driving confidence. He said the market appeared to be gradually turning a corner, helped by an increasing expectation mortgage rates were as low as they would go over the next 12 months. "Expectation for further interest rate cuts dropped again this quarter, with a net 48 percent of respondents expecting lower rates, down from 51 percent last quarter. "This likely reflects an understanding that we're nearing the end of the easing cycle, and rising concerns about resurgence of inflation this year due to global trade tensions and increasing import costs." Tuffley said concerns about global growth and job security meant the market was unlikely to heat up quickly. "While we're seeing encouraging signs in buyer sentiment, we're still in a tentative phase. "Recovery will be gradual, and we're mindful of lingering challenges such as global growth uncertainty and job security concerns." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
22-05-2025
- Business
- RNZ News
Midday Report Essentials for Thursday 22 May 2025
money sport 22 minutes ago In today's episode, we speak with ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley about what to expect in Budget 2025. We cross to Wellington issues reporter Nick James about a major Wellington City Council meeting looking at spending on big projects such as water infrastructure, Khandallah Pool and Begonia House. And we speak to a Christchurch principal involved in a discussion about an alternative First XV boys' rugby competition which spans the entire South Island, but would exclude co-ed schools.
