Latest news with #NiskanenCenter
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is AI taking new grads' jobs? Not so fast.
College graduates are facing an especially tough labor market right now, haunted by tech layoffs, some companies' reluctance to hire in an era of economic uncertainty, and a dispiriting job search process, among other causes. But their employment prospects aren't broadly being hampered by AI taking their jobs — yet. That's according to an analysis from Will Raderman, an employment policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, a think tank. 'There are more standard explanations than the flashy AI explanation at this point,' Raderman, who wrote the analysis for Employ America, another think tank, told Yahoo Finance. It's true that recent college graduates between the ages of 22 and 27 currently have a higher unemployment rate than the overall working population, as the New York Federal Reserve has noted. And it's true that the labor market for these workers "deteriorated noticeably" in the first quarter of this year: New grads had an unemployment rate of 5.8% in March, compared to a rate of 4.6% in March 2024. But new graduates also had an employment rate around or above the rate for all workers just before the pandemic struck. While that gap has since grown worse, the trend predates the adoption of AI in the workplace, which nonetheless remains uneven across many sectors. Drilling down further, Raderman examined the outcomes of workers in certain majors and sectors. In his analysis, he noted that 'if AI is to blame for the woes of recent college graduates, then we should expect to see college majors with the highest exposure to AI' — like computer science and other STEM fields — 'experiencing greater increases in unemployment.' Instead, the reality is more complicated. For one thing, the number of students getting a bachelor's degree in computer and information sciences more than doubled between the 2013-2014 academic year and the 2022-2023 academic year, though the US employed fewer software engineers in January 2024 than it did in 2018. Simply put, at any given moment, there can be more tech grads than tech jobs, a common reality in that volatile sector where investment can come in large waves but quickly evaporate. What's more, some of the STEM majors who are struggling to find work today, including those in computer science, were also struggling with higher unemployment rates before generative AI took off. Meanwhile, other AI-exposed majors like mathematics, accounting, and business analytics are currently doing better unemployment-wise than they were pre-pandemic, Raderman wrote. 'Although computer science majors are in rough shape, many STEM and business majors have seen lower unemployment than pre-pandemic,' Raderman wrote in his analysis. Raderman is not the first to note that AI is unlikely to be a driving factor in recent college graduates' unemployment rates. Jaison Abel, an economist at the New York Federal Reserve, told NPR this month that while this job market for new grads is 'among the most challenging in the last decade, apart from the pandemic,' AI was likely not the main culprit, 'in large part because the adoption of AI so far has been fairly limited.' That's not to say AI won't be a bigger factor in unemployment in the future or that it isn't weighing on some workers' prospects now. Even President Trump's AI 'action plan' released this week noted that AI will "transform how work gets done across all industries and occupations, demanding a serious workforce response to help workers navigate that transition." The administration recommended the Department of Labor 'leverage available discretionary funding, where appropriate, to fund rapid retraining for individuals impacted by AI-related job displacement.'Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is AI taking new grads' jobs? Not so fast.
College graduates are facing an especially tough labor market right now, haunted by tech layoffs, some companies' reluctance to hire in an era of economic uncertainty, and a dispiriting job search process, among other causes. But their employment prospects aren't broadly being hampered by AI taking their jobs — yet. That's according to an analysis from Will Raderman, an employment policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, a think tank. 'There are more standard explanations than the flashy AI explanation at this point,' Raderman, who wrote the analysis for Employ America, another think tank, told Yahoo Finance. It's true that recent college graduates between the ages of 22 and 27 currently have a higher unemployment rate than the overall working population, as the New York Federal Reserve has noted. And it's true that the labor market for these workers "deteriorated noticeably" in the first quarter of this year: New grads had an unemployment rate of 5.8% in March, compared to a rate of 4.6% in March 2024. But new graduates also had an employment rate around or above the rate for all workers just before the pandemic struck. While that gap has since grown worse, the trend predates the adoption of AI in the workplace, which nonetheless remains uneven across many sectors. Drilling down further, Raderman examined the outcomes of workers in certain majors and sectors. In his analysis, he noted that 'if AI is to blame for the woes of recent college graduates, then we should expect to see college majors with the highest exposure to AI' — like computer science and other STEM fields — 'experiencing greater increases in unemployment.' Instead, the reality is more complicated. For one thing, the number of students getting a bachelor's degree in computer and information sciences more than doubled between the 2013-2014 academic year and the 2022-2023 academic year, though the US employed fewer software engineers in January 2024 than it did in 2018. Simply put, at any given moment, there can be more tech grads than tech jobs, a common reality in that volatile sector where investment can come in large waves but quickly evaporate. What's more, some of the STEM majors who are struggling to find work today, including those in computer science, were also struggling with higher unemployment rates before generative AI took off. Meanwhile, other AI-exposed majors like mathematics, accounting, and business analytics are currently doing better unemployment-wise than they were pre-pandemic, Raderman wrote. 'Although computer science majors are in rough shape, many STEM and business majors have seen lower unemployment than pre-pandemic,' Raderman wrote in his analysis. Raderman is not the first to note that AI is unlikely to be a driving factor in recent college graduates' unemployment rates. Jaison Abel, an economist at the New York Federal Reserve, told NPR this month that while this job market for new grads is 'among the most challenging in the last decade, apart from the pandemic,' AI was likely not the main culprit, 'in large part because the adoption of AI so far has been fairly limited.' That's not to say AI won't be a bigger factor in unemployment in the future or that it isn't weighing on some workers' prospects now. Even President Trump's AI 'action plan' released this week noted that AI will "transform how work gets done across all industries and occupations, demanding a serious workforce response to help workers navigate that transition." The administration recommended the Department of Labor 'leverage available discretionary funding, where appropriate, to fund rapid retraining for individuals impacted by AI-related job displacement.'Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter Sign in to access your portfolio
ABC News
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- ABC News
Will Musk's new 'America Party' take down Trump?
Sydney Pead: After spending hundreds of millions of dollars to help put Donald Trump in the White House, Elon Musk is launching his own political party. Musk says his America Party will challenge the status quo that he believes is bankrupting the United States. Today, political scientist Geoff Kabaservice from the Niskanen Center on what the party could stand for and who might vote for it. I'm Sydney Pead, on Gadigal land in Sydney, this is ABC News Daily. Sydney Pead: Geoff, Elon Musk did a poll on his platform X and 65% voted yes to create the America Party. He says it's formed to give you back your freedom. So there you have it, Geoff, easy as that. Geoff Kabaservice: Yes, with Elon Musk, he only has to will it and it exists. So people who followed the Trump-Musk drama will know that they fell out rather violently a few weeks ago and were slinging insults at each other on social media. News report: The president, who reportedly plans to sell the red Tesla he bought in a show of support for Elon Musk, has now described his former first buddy as a man who's lost his mind. Geoff Kabaservice: But then Musk had actually been quiet for a bit, probably on the advice of his boards of directors. But then on the 4th of July, America's Independence Day, he came out with his proposal that there be a third party, which presumably he would fund with great generosity. And this would be a major change to the American political system. And the X voters voted and they said by a two to one margin, they wanted him to go forward. So he's vowed that he will. Sydney Pead: And this is a new direction for Musk's foray into politics. Back in May, he exited the Trump administration after spearheading the cost-cutting department of government efficiency, DOGE. The wheels did start to come off a little when Musk began to criticise Trump's spending plan, Trump's big, beautiful bill. Can you tell me about that? Geoff Kabaservice: Yes. Well, before it had that label, Musk had actually called the bill a disgusting abomination. And in fact, you know, it is quite a profligate spending bill for a Republican party that still likes to think of itself as the guardian of the fisk. It will add at least $3 trillion to the deficit. And this at a time, of course, when interest rates arereasonably high, and this actually will not have a good impact on the American economy or the situation for businesses. However, the budget bill is also notable in the sense that it's in some way a very un-Trumpian piece of legislation. It actually makes savage cuts to government spending programmes that actually do support quite a lot of voters in Trump's base, relatively poor, working class voters. So this actually has real potential to split the party. And maybe that's the subtext to Elon Musk's proposal to start a third party and also punish Republican legislators who voted for this bill. Sydney Pead: Yes. Well, there was plenty of shots fired between Trump and Musk over this bill. Even at one stage, Trump was musing on the possibility of deporting Elon Musk, which is extraordinary. Geoff Kabaservice: Yes, yes. I mean, Trump says a lot of things that perhaps he doesn't necessarily mean, but he certainly does have a bit of a handle from which to jerk Elon Musk around because Musk's companies get quite a lot of government subsidies and Trump has mused about taking those away. You know, something about the overall incoherence of Musk's political position, I think, is revealed in the fact that he is, after all, the head of Tesla. And most buyers of electric vehicles are actually Democrats. Trump's one big beautiful bill actually makes savage cuts to anything resembling green energy. So he actually has a very credible threat to do away with government subsidy of Musk's companies. Sydney Pead: Okay. So in the wake of this fallout, Elon Musk announces on X that he's going to start a new political party. Donald Trump is not happy about this. He says it's ridiculous and Musk has gone completely off the rails since departing the White House. Donald Trump, US President: I think it's ridiculous to start a third party. We have a tremendous success with the Republican party. The Democrats have lost their way, but it's always been a two party system. And I think starting a third party just adds to confusion. It really seems to have been developed for two parties. Third parties have never worked. So he can have fun with it. But I think it's ridiculous. Sydney Pead: Let's take a look now at the America party. Musk claims that the US currently has a uni-party system and that the Republicans and the Democrats are in essence the same. So what is his alternative? We know he wants to slash debt. What else would this party stand for? Geoff Kabaservice: So, you know, I think most Americans would find the idea that the Republicans and Democrats right now at this moment are the same to be bonkers. They're probably farther apart than they've been in decades. However, Musk is probably correct that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have much credibility when it comes to balancing budgets. I actually believe that we now spend more on the interest on the debt in any one given fiscal year than we do on all of our national defence spending. So it actually is a very serious problem and he's not wrong to want to address it. But the problem is, of course, that Musk is all over the map in some sense in terms of his own politics. He's alienated Democrats because of the DOGE actions that he undertook to to really attack and undermine government. And he also holds a lot of positions that Democrats don't like. He's actually a very strong supporter of the Second Amendment to bear arms, for example, which is less popular now than it's ever been, perhaps, in the Democratic Party. But on the other hand, his war with Trump has shown that he's alienated a large segment of MAGA's party as well. And they're not fiscal conservatives at heart, most of his populist supporters. So it's not quite clear what Elon's proposed constituency for this new American party might be. Sydney Pead: Well, just on that, what about his potential voters? He's very polarising. Do you think he attracts people who are attracted to his celebrity or is it his political ideology that's attractive? Geoff Kabaservice: It's a good question about what accounts for Musk's popularity and how that might translate into electoral terms. I mean, it's often said that the new currency in America when it comes to elections is attention. And he's certainly shown that he can get quite a lot of it. But on the other hand, really, he is actually even less popular right now in most polls than Donald Trump himself. So it's not quite clear what he has in mind with this venture. Sydney Pead: And you mentioned Trump's MAGA base just before. How much of that Make America Great Again voter base would Musk be able to bring along, do you think, to the American party? Geoff Kabaservice: Well, now we get into some trickiness here. In Washington, D.C., you can actually run into a lot of libertarians. And I would generally put Musk in the libertarian camp. But as it happens, only about 4% of the American electorate would answer to that description. Most Republicans are fiscally and socially conservative. Most Democrats are fiscally and socially liberal. But there would be perhaps some possibility to wean away some part of the MAGA base. And of course, third parties tend to run on anti-establishment energies. So, again, possible that Musk could be that kind of anti-establishment figure who might attract some kind of electoral support. Sydney Pead: There are already a number of other minor political parties in the U.S. The Libertarian Party is the third biggest. And there's also the Greens, which is smaller still. But they're not overly popular. So, so far, none have managed to break that two-party dominance in the U.S., right? Geoff Kabaservice: You know, it's very difficult for people not in the United States, not familiar with our political system, to understand how dominant the two-party system is. Sometimes it makes sense to call it a duopoly. And in fact, the last third party to actually succeed in becoming a major party was the Republican Party itself back in the 1850s. There are just many, many ways in which the American system is set up to systematically disadvantage third parties and prevent them from breaking through to major party status. Sydney Pead: Okay. But as we know, Musk has seemingly bottomless pockets. So is his ability to bankroll this venture, would that change the game for him? Geoff Kabaservice: Well, probably not, to be honest. Because, you know, it's actually often crossed the minds of various rich people that there ought to be a third party, preferably helmed by themselves, to bring wisdom and rationality to the American political system. Donald Trump himself actually flirted with this idea back in 2000 when he sought the nomination of the Reform Party. But actually, Trump had a much better perception of the American system by 2016 when he realised that far better than starting a non-viable third party would be to actually take over one of the two existing parties, which he did to great effect. You know, it is possible that Musk could actually choose to make a big political impact through some other vehicle than the one he's talking about right now. The elections that really matter in this country at the level of Congress are primary elections, which are typically closed to only members of either the Republican or the Democratic Party. They tend to be very low turnout elections in which some amount of money in advertising could have a significant impact. And if Musk really wanted to punish the Republicans who had voted for Trump's one big, beautiful bill, he would fund primary challengers within the Republican Party itself. But what he said is he actually wants to create this third party that would challenge both Republicans and Democrats. And that's a much, that's a much bigger reach. Sydney Pead: Much more ambitious. Musk did post that part of his strategy would be to laser focus on just two or three Senate seats and eight to 10 House districts. So if he was able to do that, what kind of impact could that have on the two major parties? Geoff Kabaservice: Well, I think the key word that you just used there was if. I mean, this is a pipe dream that goes back a long way. The idea being that in a very narrowly divided Congress, all you have to do is get a handful of bipartisan centrist legislators and they can form a bloc who can act as kingmakers in deciding whether to accept or reject any particular legislation. But the chances are very good that it'll come to nothing, even with somebody with as deep pockets as Elon Musk behind it. Sydney Pead: Okay. And Elon Musk, of course, was not born in the US, so he could never be president, right? But could the American Party run a candidate for president in 2028? Geoff Kabaservice: You know, anything's possible. But the very last presidential third party candidate to win any electoral college votes, which again, you can't win the election without those, was George Wallace running with the American Independent Party in 1968. I think he got 46 electoral votes, something like 13.5% of the popular vote. They can make some impact, but I don't think that's what Elon Musk has in mind with his grand plans for a third party. Sydney Pead: If a third party candidate doesn't win, can they still swing the vote there away from those two major parties? Geoff Kabaservice: You know, what third party candidates for president who are the most successful can do is cast doubt on the perceived legitimacy of the winner. But I think more than that, the third party candidate, if it's successful enough, can indicate a degree of dissatisfaction on the part of a significant segment of the population, with the establishment of both parties, with the absence of issues that are perceived to be very important for at least some segment of the population. And that can in turn impact the politics of the two established parties. Sydney Pead: Well, it is easy to be a bit dubious about Musk's moves, but overall, is competition in politics a good thing for the system? Good for democracy? Good for voters? What do you think? Geoff Kabaservice: If you ask voters, poll after poll for at least the last 25 years has determined that a majority of them do want or say they want a viable third party, and typically they feel that the two parties are too extreme. However, when they're actually given a chance to vote for third party candidates, they typically don't. But, you know, I remember from my historical training that Richard Hofstadter, the historian, said in 1955 that third parties are like bees. Once they have stung, they die. And I think what he was getting at was that sometimes there can be significant issues that aren't addressed by either of the two major parties. And in 1992, when Ross Perot was running for the presidency, he was running against the debt and deficit, somewhat along the lines of what Musk says he would like his third party to do. And he got 20% of the vote, which is not nothing. And that actually did very much impact the direction of Bill Clinton's presidency, because Clinton concentrated much more on balancing the budget and reinventing government than perhaps he would have if not for that kind of populist stimulus. So it's possible that Musk's project actually bear some political fruit. It just wouldn't accrue directly to his political party. Sydney Pead: Lastly, how bad do you think this could be for Donald Trump? Because to have Musk drawing not only attention away, but money? We know he spent more than a quarter of a billion US dollars helping Trump get into the White House in 2024. How big a difference could this make to the Republicans? Geoff Kabaservice: I don't think the Republican strategists that I know are taking this threat by Musk all that seriously at this point. If he were to actually shift his strategy toward mounting primary challenges in Republican districts, then they would take him very seriously indeed. But just the idea of a sort of third party defined by Elon Musk, hostile to Donald Trump, but also hostile to the Democrats, I don't think there's much of a fear on that account. And most Republican strategists that I know also are basically counting on Elon Musk dropping this once there's sufficient opposition from his boards. When Elon Musk made his announcement, the response of the markets was to actually drop Tesla stock by 7%. And Tesla stock overall is down 40% from its peak in December. So, you know, Musk has a lot of money, but the people he answers to on the boards of his company don't want him to keep losing money indefinitely. And I think that's definitely what they fear would emerge from this kind of political adventure. Sydney Pead: Geoff Kabaservice is a political scientist from the Niskanen Center, a centre-right think tank based in Washington, DC. This episode was produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sydney Pead. ABC News Daily will be back again tomorrow. Thanks for listening.
Miami Herald
24-06-2025
- Miami Herald
Indian Influencers Gain Viral Fame With Repeated Crossings of US Border
A growing number of Indian immigrants are sharing their repeated attempts to cross the United States border on social media. In posts on Instagram and YouTube, the men are documenting their journeys through South America to the U.S.-Mexico border, along with their subsequent detentions and deportations. "Part of the reason why they're doing this time and time again is that they are posting it on social media channels, which I really think is a very critical part of the explanation and the motivation here," Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, told Newsweek. Newsweek reviewed accounts that appeared to show multiple men making the often-perilous journey through Panama's Darien Gap, spending time in ICE detention centers, and then being flown back to India — before trying all over again. One such channel, known as the Kaatiya Brothers USA, included multiple vlogs of the two brothers as they journey through Panama alongside other migrants. Makeshift campsites, treks through the thick jungle, and multiple bus trips were all captured with a sense of joy and adventure. Newsweek reached out to the channel for comment. Another account on Instagram called "America Return US" also shows an Indian man posing in front of the border wall with Mexico. He appeared to have documented his stay in an ICE detention facility, along with various immigration documents. When approached by Newsweek for comment, he asked for payment in order to speak. Others on Instagram have also documented their journeys, including dates when they left India, made it to the U.S. border, were detained, and then deported. Shots included U.S. immigration papers and notices of removal. For Guerra, these accounts match up with the research he has carried out over a number of years. He said that the majority of those making such a journey to the southwest border are mostly from the northern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana. "They are relatively wealthy, especially in comparison to the rest of the population in India, but much of that wealth comes from having sold, or their families having sold, tracks of land, in those states where the land value has increased a lot in recent years," Guerra said. "So, they are able to afford the smuggling journey, but they typically don't have the prerequisites, credentials, and education to try to immigrate to the United States through more regular means. Many of them are Sikh and there are large Sikh networks in transportation, and especially long-distance trucking, that will allow them to make very good salaries in the United States, despite their lack of education." In Fiscal Year 2024, the last full year of data available, there were 25,529 Indian nationals arrested by the U.S. Border Patrol along the southwest border as they tried to enter illegally. The year before, that figure was 41,719. Newsweek asked U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) about those documenting their repeated illegal entries or attempts to enter the country. The agency said that numbers of Indian nationals encountered so far this fiscal year – since October 2024 – were lower, at around 28 in total. "If you cross the border illegally, you will be apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol and swiftly deported," a CBP spokesperson said. "Thanks to the good work of the men and women of CBP, as well as the leadership of the President Donald Trump and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, USBP has encountered nearly 95% fewer illegal aliens from India along the southwest border during the administration's first quarter as compared with the same months in 2024." Estimates vary on the number of Indian nationals in the U.S. without legal status. Pew Research Center estimates the number to be around 725,000, making Indian the third-largest nationality after Mexicans and Salvadorans. The Center for Migration Studies put the number, in 2023, at roughly 709,000. Research published by Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in February showed that many Indian immigrants do make their way to the U.S. as genuine candidates for asylum, with a lack of economic opportunities and political oppression at home. Guarra added that for the Sikh population in particular, a rise in tensions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government of Hindu nationalists has given them reason to try their luck in the U.S. While these could be valid reasons for seeking asylum, allowing some to remain in the U.S. while their cases are adjudicated, others are seeing accounts on social media which make the route look like an adventure, rather than dangerous or uncertain. "If you're a young man and you have relatively little things tying you down at home, and also you feel like you have better prospects in the United States, there is a sort of romance of the American dream, still, and there's also the romance of traveling and traversing all of these different countries," Guerra said. "Obviously this trip is expensive and prohibitive and the actual outcomes, now that asylum has been restricted, are nearly always going to be negative for them. But I think that part of it is that they can show on social media that they are still trying to make it." Under President Trump, asylum has been heavily restricted, meaning the likelihood of being able to successfully claim the status when arrested by the Border Patrol has been cut significantly regardless of the asylee's nationality. For many trying to make their way to the U.S. via the southwest border, rather than through legal immigration routes far more common for Indian nationals, such as work-based visas for jobs in tech and health care, the chances of deportation are now higher. Since January, over 1,000 Indian nationals have been returned by the U.S., with coordinated removal flights which appeared in some of the social media posts Newsweek has viewed. That doesn't appear to have fully deterred others, with Indian migrants continuing to post about their attempts. "It's a very delicate and tricky subject for U.S.-India relations, because many migrants are Sikh," Guerra said. "Many of them, when they apply for asylum, apply for asylum on grounds they are being mistreated on religious and political grounds by the Indian state. So, if the U.S. does accept them, that in and of itself could lead to some tensions." 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ABC News
09-06-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Why Trump and Musk were stronger together
Sam Hawley: Breaking up can be hard and fascinating to watch from afar. So where is the disintegration of the relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk up to now? Today, Geoff Kabaservice from the centre-right think tank, the Niskanen Center, on the real-world consequences of the split and whether there's any chance of reconciliation between the President and the billionaire. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Donald Trump, US President: I'm very disappointed in Elon. I've helped Elon a lot. People leave my administration, some of them embrace it and some of them actually become hostile. I don't know what it is, it's sort of Trump derangement syndrome, I guess they call it. News report: Within hours of his Oval Office comments, their once-close relationship had disintegrated. The world's richest man firing back in a barrage of hostile posts on X. News report: Mr Musk, until recently a major ally of the President, continues to publicly criticise a government spending bill, even agreeing that Mr Trump should be impeached and replaced by Vice President J.D Vance. News report: Donald Trump also fired off on his truth social platform. He posted, I asked him to leave, I took away his EV mandate and he just went crazy. News report: Elon Musk then claimed that Trump is in the files about child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein tweeting, that is the real reason they have not been made public. Sam Hawley: Geoff, talk about a clash of the titans, if we could put it that way. How would you describe the last few days? Geoff Kabaservice: Well it's good to be with you Sam and of course this feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is causing plenty of amusement for anyone who pays attention to US politics. The memes practically write themselves. Is this alien versus predator? Is this the gayest thing to have happened during the whole of Pride Month so far? You know, it's amusing but it's also quite consequential in the sense that Elon Musk is not just the richest man in the world but somebody whose businesses directly impacts US national security and the fate of global affairs. And of course Donald Trump is the most powerful man possibly in the world. So it's entertaining but it's also disturbing. Sam Hawley: So there is deeper implications to all of this. One of them of course for Donald Trump is that the richest man in the world could switch his allegiances to the other side of politics. If he really wants to annoy Donald Trump he could back the Democrats, right? Geoff Kabaservice: You know, Elon Musk is unlike anyone who Trump has ever had in his circle because he's not a creature of Trump. He is independent. He has his own base in the world of business and of course his vast fortunes and the companies that he controls. So it's entirely possible that Musk could say I am flipping over to the Democrats or as he has already tweeted during the course of his epic meltdown that he is going to support a third party. Anything's possible. But of course there are also some people wondering if maybe this is a big put on of some kind, if maybe this was staged, if there's going to be an immediate kiss and make up session - to be determined. Sam Hawley: Well during an interview on NBC, Donald Trump did warn Elon Musk against that move. He said there'd be serious consequences although he didn't mention what those consequences would be. And even though he kept saying that he doesn't spend any time thinking about Elon Musk, he was happy to keep answering questions about Elon Musk. Reporter: What's your view on Elon Musk as of today? I mean, have you heard from him at all? Donald Trump, US President: I've been so busy working on China, working on Russia, working on Iran, working on so many, I'm not thinking about Elon. Geoff Kabaservice: This is a breakdown that I've been predicting for a while. I can at least say that I was correct in foreseeing that egos this Titanic could not comfortably coexist for long on the same team. But you know, Elon Musk has considerable cards, shall we say, because he is, as we've said, the world's richest man. He actually has a number of businesses that are critical to how government and the world works. Just as an example, SpaceX has under its umbrella Starlink, which does I think 80% of satellite communications launches in this country. It had a material impact on the outcome of the Ukraine war and the conduct of that war. And, you know, Elon Musk also controls a very important social media platform. It is as though he were the head of, let's say, the Washington Post 50 years ago. This is a person with a lot of formidable weapons, should he choose to go to all out war with Donald Trump, as opposed to just flinging insults at each other and calling each other paedophiles. Sam Hawley: Yes, because of course, Elon, without evidence, accused the US president of being named in the Epstein sex trafficking files, a post which he later deleted. So let's just delve a bit further, though, into what Elon Musk could actually do to harm President Trump. As we said, he also has, of course, this very large social media platform with millions of followers. Could he use that against the president, do you think? Will he want to? Geoff Kabaservice: Well, Elon Musk has a lot of say over what messages get broadcast on his platform, X, which is his new name for Twitter, of course. And it's entirely possible that he could actually go up against some of Trump's biggest supporters on that platform and simply suppress their messages, as well as putting out his own using one of the world's biggest microphones. But that's an entirely foreseeable outcome. Sam Hawley: And of course, as we mentioned, he could also set up a new political party, support the Democrats. Geoff Kabaservice: Well, you know, Elon Musk doesn't really have a lot of followers among Democrats. And in fact, a lot of people on the left have fled his platform for Blue Sky and others. But Elon Musk does have considerable amount of influence over the so-called tech right. Elon Musk is one of the biggest beasts in Silicon Valley, and a lot of people do look up to him and have followed his lead in being willing to support Donald Trump, even despite the fact that Silicon Valley's institutional political perspective, if that makes sense, is really quite different from Trump's populism. So there's a lot of points of stress in politics that if Elon Musk chooses to exacerbate them could widen the divides within the Trumpian coalition such as it is. And that might or might not benefit the Democrats. It's hard to say, but at least would weaken Trump. Sam Hawley: Mm hmm. All right. Well, there's also, of course, a number of ways that Trump could also make life very difficult for Elon Musk. You mentioned SpaceX. Donald Trump, he's threatened to tear up all of the contracts that Musk companies have with the federal government. And that includes, of course, SpaceX. Can Trump actually do that, do you think? Geoff Kabaservice: Well, Trump has certainly threatened other institutions with the withdrawal of federal funds, most notably Harvard University, which stands to lose close to $3 billion if Trump's actions are upheld by the courts. So it's certainly not an idle threat to take action against Elon Musk's companies. Certainly, SpaceX would be the most vulnerable to that kind of Trumpian threat because they get something on the order of $20 billion a month from the federal government. And in many ways, Trump's threat, it would really matter, would not just be to withhold funds from SpaceX, but actually to nationalise it. And Steve Bannon, who is in so many ways Elon Musk's antagonist, has actually called for Trump to do just that. And there's a real argument that somebody who does so much of the United States rocketry business, who has such an incredible sway over its Starlink and satellite apparatus, who in many ways is almost a sovereign entity at this point, you could make a real argument that nationalisation of SpaceX should happen. And I'm sure you would actually find a lot of Democrats supporting that motion as well. Sam Hawley: Trump could also suspend his security clearances, right? Which would make life somewhat difficult. Geoff Kabaservice: You know, Trump in extremis could even deport Elon Musk, who after all is from another place, shall we say. Sam Hawley: Yeah. And Steve Bannon, a former advisor to Trump, he's actually raised that, hasn't he? Geoff Kabaservice: He has indeed. Sam Hawley: That Donald Trump should investigate the immigration status of Elon Musk, even though, of course, he is an American citizen. Geoff Kabaservice: Right. Sam Hawley: Well, of course, the stoush also did send Tesla stocks plummeting, Geoff. So that's another way, I suppose. This could harm Elon's business operations. And also Trump could tighten regulations, couldn't he, to make it harder for Elon to do business? Geoff Kabaservice: Sure. You know, it's been interesting to see the way the narrative has shifted over the last several months since Elon Musk came aboard. When Elon invested something on the order of $250 million in the 2024 political campaigns, which included not just Trump's election, but also a number of other Republican candidacies in Congress and elsewhere, this seemed like actually a remarkably astute payoff because Elon Musk's personal net worth soared in the first few months. But, you know, there's been incredible pushback, even from some Republicans, against the Doge project of cutting the government that Elon Musk has engaged in. And Elon never quite seemed sure as to what his purpose was in helming that Doge effort. Was it to just help Trump extract political payback against woke enemies and the so-called deep state? Or was it actually to try to genuinely cut the deficit or make government work more efficiently? You know, the blow up between Musk and Trump got its start when Elon started criticising the Republican budget bill, which truly is a fiscally incontinent budget buster, which will add something on the order of over $3 trillion to debt. News report: Tech billionaire Elon Musk has issued a blistering criticism of US President Donald Trump's spending bill. News report: He has said that I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it. Geoff Kabaservice: So, you know, there's a lot of things that are going wrong in the Trump-Musk relationship in the ways that they're not seeing each other eye to eye. And Elon is not very political. So in that sense, Trump could actually have the upper hand on him and could make his life difficult in many ways. And, you know, since you mentioned Tesla, you know, Tesla's stock has really cratered in recent months. People on the left really don't want to be associated with Elon Musk, but the right has never gone in for electric vehicles in the first place. And even Donald Trump's shilling for Teslas on the White House lawn hasn't really done much to encourage people on the right to buy Teslas. And one would imagine that they will be even less willing to do that now. Sam Hawley: Yeah. And Donald Trump, of course, says he's going to sell his Tesla. I wonder if this might be better for Tesla, then Elon might have somewhat of a recovery when it comes to Tesla if he's not so closely associated with Donald Trump. Geoff Kabaservice: It's kind of amusing. Like I said, this is this sandbox, quarrel of these two extremely powerful men flinging poo at each other. But, you know, let's not forget that the United States is no longer the world's unquestioned superpower. It no longer, in some sense, has the luxury to actually engage in this kind of infantile are facing a serious technological threat from China, which undoubtedly will translate into global mastery of some kind. And frankly, Elon Musk's Tesla is also losing shares not just because of politics, but because it's actually lost the technological edge to some of these other Chinese companies. And the same is true of a number of critical technology areas where the United States is almost visibly falling behind China. And certainly our manufacturing capability, we've now been dwarfed by China, which is why Tesla does so much of its manufacturing in China. So one hopes that cooler heads are going to prevail. And I strongly suspect that both Trump and Musk are looking for ways to back down from this feud. But that doesn't mean that the political alliance that existed between them can be resurrected. Sam Hawley: Yeah. I was going to say, is there a way back from the brink? And if there isn't, who do you think will be the ultimate winner of this stoush, the billionaire or the president? Geoff Kabaservice: Oh, that's awfully hard to say because it's not clear what winning would look like here. I mean, at the end of the day, Elon will still have more money than any human being has had in history, as well as however many children he wants to have, however many consorts he wants to have. One suspects Elon will be fine. And at the end of the day, Donald Trump will still be president as well. And it's unlikely that the Republican Party is going to get out from under his brand of populism anytime soon, whether or not he chooses to run for a third term in 2028, despite the constitutional prohibition on that happening. So it's hard to say who is actually going to come out winners, you know, but I think there's a fair case to be made that they were stronger together than they will be apart, and that they will never quite wield the same power and influence or even be able to affect the cultural vibes in quite the same way. Sam Hawley: Geoff Kabaservice is from the Niskanen Center, a centre right think tank based in Washington episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley, thanks for listening.
