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Business Recorder
03-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold eases as investors await US payroll data for Fed policy clues
Gold fell on Thursday as investors held back from making significant bets, awaiting the U.S. payroll data later in the day for insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Spot gold lost 0.3% to $3,346.47 per ounce, as of 0211 GMT, while U.S. gold futures edged down 0.1% to $3,357.20. Gold appears to be consolidating at present within $3,320 to $3,360 range, with the market adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and ISM Services PMI data, rather than taking significant positions, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. Data released by ADP showed U.S. private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first decline in more than two years, as economic uncertainty hampered hiring. Meanwhile, low layoffs continued to anchor the labour market. Gold prices up on weaker dollar Investors are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, which is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, according to a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, the U.S. will impose a lower-than-promised 20% tariff on various goods from Vietnam, President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. The Southeast Asian nation is the U.S.' tenth-largest trading partner. 'The Vietnam trade deal has likely already been priced into the market, and I think the primary concern now is the status of other deals with major economies that are still in the limbo,' Wong said. The U.S. and India negotiators pushed to finalise a tariff-reducing deal ahead of Trump's July 9 deadline. Trump has indicated no signs of extending the negotiation deadline despite stalled discussions with Japan, another key trade partner, but expressed optimism about an India deal. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $36.37 per ounce, platinum lost 1.5% to $1,397.91 and palladium shed 1.4% to $1,138.73.
Business Recorder
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold still faces downside risks
Last week, the global financial markets displayed some stability following a reduction in tariff tensions between the US and its trading partners. Concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the US arose after the release of disappointing ADP data. The anxiety over a recession intensified as the Q1 GDP figures revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy, attributed to a surge in imports that resulted from tariffs coming into effect in April. However, market sentiment began to shift with the anticipation of crucial economic reports. On Friday, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures were released, highlighting the addition of 177,000 jobs in April. Although the March NFP was revised downwards, the US labour market continued to show resilience, with both reports surpassing the average monthly gains of 150,000 over the past year, indicating strength in the job market. While wage pressures eased, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, likely providing reassurance to risk assets that began to recover, alleviating the initial recession fears. This positive shift was reflected by signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China. China appeared to be more responsive to discussions regarding trade issues following Washington's proposal to discuss 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. However, a crucial point to note is that neither the US nor China has initiated a serious trade dialogue, suggesting that both may be waiting for the other to make the first move. The stubbornness displayed by these two major global economic powers in addressing trade matters has unsettled the global markets. A sign of this nervousness is the consistent reports of capital outflows from the US for the third week in a row, despite the improving conditions. The robust US jobs data released on Friday has led to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, lowering the probability to about 36% from 58%. Additionally, market expectations for a US rate cut have dropped from 100 basis points to nearly 75 basis points. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to convene on May 7 to decide on interest rates and is anticipated to maintain the current rates. The market sees only a 7% likelihood of a rate cut. If the Fed opts to keep rates unchanged, attention will shift to the US President's reactions, making the press conference by Fed Chairman crucial for understanding the Fed's strategy. In Europe, the focus will be on the UK as the Bank of England (BOE) meets on Thursday to determine interest rates. The BOE is expected to be less concerned about the tariff situation compared to the Eurozone due to its lower trading volume with the US. Therefore, policymakers are likely to prioritize economic growth and may reduce interest rates by 25 basis points and may possibly give signal to the investors that any future cuts would be gradual. For the last couple of updates, I have been discussing the potential for a correction in gold prices. In the past 10 days, after reaching $ 3,500, gold has retraced nearly 7%. In last week's report, gold hit the anticipated target of $ 3,205. Speculation suggests that the recent drop in gold prices may have been triggered by selling pressures in China, which has been absent from the market due to the May labour holiday. Although there is some optimism regarding a possible trade deal, gold still faces downside risks and is likely to remain volatile due to tariff news and geopolitical developments. One significant risk for gold is that the farther it declines, the higher the probability of a swift rebound, which vouchers for careful monitoring. This week, the primary focus will be on the Fed meeting and Chairman Powell's remarks. Traders will also be attentive to the ISM Services PMI for May, which is due on Monday, and the weekly jobless claims data set to be released on Thursday. WEEKLY OUTLOOK - May 5-9 GOLD @ $ 3240— This week, if gold doesn't rise above the $ 3287-95 range, it will continue to face downward pressure. The crucial support level to watch is $ 3168. A break below that would signal a drop to $ 3125. However, if there is a breakthrough on the upside, gold could reach $ 3335. EURO @ 1.1296— Key support for the Euro is located near 1.1210. Only a breakdown below this level could lead to a decline towards 1.1160. On the other hand, the Euro needs to rise above 1.1395 to potentially challenge 1.1485. GBP @ 1.3272— The key downside level to observe is 1.3180, which is expected to remain intact. For the Cable to achieve additional gains, it will need to break above 1.3440 decisively. If it declines l, then watch for 1.3050. JPY @ 144.95— USD has support at 144.05, and a break below that could trigger a drop to 143.50. Nevertheless, there is still potential for the US Dollar to reach the 146.20-50 range before it starts to decline. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Zawya
28-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Bitcoin surges back above $90,000 as institutional interest and economic uncertainty drive market growth
Dubai, UAE: The cryptocurrency markets saw a solid week, with a total market capitalization surge of $300 billion, as Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels and continued its upward trajectory. Bitcoin gained 10%, pushing its price past the $90,000 mark, a level last seen in early March 2025. As of today, Bitcoin is nearing $95,000, marking a significant rebound. Simon Peters, Crypto Analyst at eToro, commented on the recent surge: "Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, including the geopolitical tensions between the US and China and concerns around potential changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's strong performance has been impressive. While traditional markets remain under pressure, Bitcoin has shown resilience, and this could signal a shift in how institutional and retail investors view the asset. It's clear that Bitcoin is emerging as a potential safe-haven asset, much like gold." The resurgence of Bitcoin comes despite broader economic uncertainty, including potential tariff increases between the US and China, ongoing tensions around President Trump's trade policies, and speculations regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. While traditional markets remain under pressure, Bitcoin's recent growth suggests a decoupling from its typical correlation with US markets, particularly tech stocks. In fact, Bitcoin has shown a growing correlation with gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, which could point to its increasing role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Institutional Interest Grows with Significant Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows The growing institutional interest in Bitcoin has been underscored by massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In the past week, the 7th and 8th largest days for net inflows into these ETFs were recorded, with inflows of $917 million and $912.7 million, respectively. This uptick in institutional participation indicates a robust demand for Bitcoin as a financial asset. Simon Peters added: "With gold at record highs, many investors appear to be turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value or a digital equivalent of the precious metal, often referred to as 'digital gold.' The growing institutional interest, combined with Bitcoin's increasing correlation with gold, suggests that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability." Economic Data and Fed Policy to Drive Markets in the Week Ahead Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. This will be a key indicator for the Fed's interest rate decisions in its upcoming meeting on May 7th. Additionally, other data points such as Advanced GDP, Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Farm Payroll figures will provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Biggest Movers in Crypto Markets This week's crypto market saw several standout performers: $TRUMP: The meme coin associated with former US President Donald Trump rallied by 70% after it was announced that Trump would host a private dinner for the top 220 holders of the $TRUMP token at his Washington DC private club on May 22nd. Despite the recent rally, the price of $TRUMP remains well below its January 2025 high of $77, currently trading at $15.21. $SUI: Another big mover, the Sui token surged by 64% following Grayscale's announcement of the Sui Trust, offering accredited investors in traditional finance exposure to the crypto asset. The news of a potential Sui spot ETF also fueled investor enthusiasm. Eye-Catching Stories in Crypto In a major announcement, Strike CEO and prominent Bitcoin advocate Jack Mallers, along with Tether and SoftBank Group, unveiled Twenty One, a new venture designed to accumulate Bitcoin. The entity plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) under the ticker symbol XXI. Twenty One aims to replicate the success of other Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy and will hold over 42,000 Bitcoin at the merger's close, positioning itself as the third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. About eToro: eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have over 38 million registered users from more than 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So, we've created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors.
Khaleej Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Bitcoin surges back above $95,000 as institutional interest and economic uncertainty drive growth
The cryptocurrency markets are witnessing a turnaround, with a total market capitalisation surge of $300 billion, as Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels and continued its upward trajectory. Bitcoin gained 10%, pushing its price past the $90,000 mark, a level last seen in early March 2025. On Monday afternoon, Bitcoin topped $95,000, marking a significant rebound. The resurgence of Bitcoin comes despite broader economic uncertainty, including potential tariff increases between the US and China, ongoing tensions around President Trump's trade policies, and speculations regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. While traditional markets remain under pressure, Bitcoin's recent growth suggests a decoupling from its typical correlation with US markets, particularly tech stocks. In fact, Bitcoin has shown a growing correlation with gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, which could point to its increasing role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. 'Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, including the geopolitical tensions between the US and China and concerns around potential changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's strong performance has been impressive. While traditional markets remain under pressure, Bitcoin has shown resilience, and this could signal a shift in how institutional and retail investors view the asset. It's clear that Bitcoin is emerging as a potential safe-haven asset, much like gold,' said Simon Peters, Crypto Analyst at eToro. Institutional interest grows with significant spot Bitcoin ETF inflows The growing institutional interest in Bitcoin has been underscored by massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In the past week, the 7th and 8th largest days for net inflows into these ETFs were recorded, with inflows of $917 million and $912.7 million, respectively. This uptick in institutional participation indicates a robust demand for Bitcoin as a financial asset. Peters added: 'With gold at record highs, many investors appear to be turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value or a digital equivalent of the precious metal, often referred to as 'digital gold.' The growing institutional interest, combined with Bitcoin's increasing correlation with gold, suggests that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability.' Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. This will be a key indicator for the Fed's interest rate decisions in its upcoming meeting on May 7. Additionally, other data points such as Advanced GDP, Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Farm Payroll figures will provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Biggest movers in crypto markets Last week's crypto market saw several standout performers: • $TRUMP: The meme coin associated with former US President Donald Trump rallied by 70% after it was announced that Trump would host a private dinner for the top 220 holders of the $TRUMP token at his Washington DC private club on May 22. Despite the recent rally, the price of $TRUMP remains well below its January 2025 high of $77, currently trading at $15.21. • $SUI: Another big mover, the Sui token surged by 64% following Grayscale's announcement of the Sui Trust, offering accredited investors in traditional finance exposure to the crypto asset. The news of a potential Sui spot ETF also fueled investor enthusiasm. Eye-catching stories in crypto In a major announcement, Strike CEO and prominent Bitcoin advocate Jack Mallers, along with Tether and SoftBank Group, unveiled Twenty One, a new venture designed to accumulate Bitcoin. The entity plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) under the ticker symbol XXI. Twenty One aims to replicate the success of other Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy and will hold over 42,000 Bitcoin at the merger's close, positioning itself as the third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder.
