Latest news with #NonfarmPayroll
Arabian Post
02-07-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Octa broker's take on the upcoming NFP report
KUALA LUMPUR – Media OutReach Newswire – 2 July 2025 – This Thursday at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its highly anticipated Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. While typically issued on the first Friday of each month, this week's release has been brought forward due to the upcoming U.S. Independence Day holiday. The NFP report is traditionally considered to be the most significant piece of macro statistics and tends to generate considerable market impact. The report offers critical insights into the health of the U.S. labour market, detailing job creation in the non-agricultural sector, unveiling the latest unemployment figures, and tracking changes in average hourly earnings. This data release has the potential to reshape U.S. interest rate expectations and steer investor sentiment, which is why the report is closely watched by market participants. The report will almost certainly affect the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) and trigger volatility across various financial instruments, including equity indices and commodities. Previous report The previous NFP report (published on 6 June) presented a somewhat mixed picture. While the headline figure, showing the number of jobs created, was above the market consensus, the preceding report was revised downward. At the same time, average hourly earnings grew faster than expected. Overall, the market interpreted the report as bullish for the DXY, which ended the day higher by 0.50%, while XAUUSD and EURUSD were down 1.22% and 0.45%, respectively. ADVERTISEMENT Market Expectations The NFP release arrives against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and amplified volatility. Financial markets remain gripped by the persistent geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, alongside ongoing trade tensions between the United States and global partners. Indeed, despite the NFP's significance, the ongoing focus on global trade tariffs could partly limit its influence on market movements. Current market positioning strongly suggests a widespread expectation for a weak report that would ostensibly provide further justification for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut later this year. This sentiment is clearly reflected in both consensus surveys and recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Thus, according to Reuters, analysts expect to see only a modest increase of approximately 110,000 jobs, the lowest projected figure since November 2024. Concurrently, the DXY is hovering near a two-year low, just shy of the 97.00 mark. The primary reason for the greenback's recent weakness has been the prevailing dovish monetary policy expectations. In fact, the latest interest rate swaps market data implies almost a 75% chance of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September. Looking further ahead, the market currently prices in around 30% probability of a full percentage point reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate by July of next year. Potential Outcomes Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, offers a perceptive outlook: 'Several factors, such as a weak dollar, dovish monetary policy expectations, and a rather pessimistic consensus for tomorrow's labour market report suggest that higher-than-expected NFP figures will likely have a disproportionately stronger impact on gold [XAUUSD] and EURUSD vs lower-than-expected figures. In other words, a bullish NFP report's upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will likely outweigh the bearish impact of a weaker-than-expected release'. On balance, in case the NFP report reveals stronger-than-expected results—indicating a larger increase in payrolls and/or higher growth in average hourly earnings—the greenback could experience a substantial rebound, leading to sharp downside corrections for XAUUSD and EURUSD. Conversely, should the NFP report come out weaker than expected, gold and the euro may receive only a minor boost. 'I would treat any correction in gold as a buying opportunity', says Kar Yong Ang. 'XAUUSD remains in a structural uptrend due to strong fundamental reasons, so it is recommended to look for buying opportunities. Consider placing pending buy-limit orders on XAUUSD, particularly near the $3,280 level, in the event of a bearish reaction to the U.S. NFP report. Should a bullish reaction unfold, consider placing pending buy-stop orders on XAUUSD, specifically near $3,360'. ADVERTISEMENT ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Zawya
02-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Octa broker's take on the upcoming NFP report
KUALA LUMPUR - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 July 2025 - This Thursday at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its highly anticipated Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. While typically issued on the first Friday of each month, this week's release has been brought forward due to the upcoming U.S. Independence Day holiday. The NFP report is traditionally considered to be the most significant piece of macro statistics and tends to generate considerable market impact. The report offers critical insights into the health of the U.S. labour market, detailing job creation in the non-agricultural sector, unveiling the latest unemployment figures, and tracking changes in average hourly earnings. This data release has the potential to reshape U.S. interest rate expectations and steer investor sentiment, which is why the report is closely watched by market participants. The report will almost certainly affect the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) and trigger volatility across various financial instruments, including equity indices and commodities. Previous report The previous NFP report (published on 6 June) presented a somewhat mixed picture. While the headline figure, showing the number of jobs created, was above the market consensus, the preceding report was revised downward. At the same time, average hourly earnings grew faster than expected. Overall, the market interpreted the report as bullish for the DXY, which ended the day higher by 0.50%, while XAUUSD and EURUSD were down 1.22% and 0.45%, respectively. Market Expectations The NFP release arrives against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and amplified volatility. Financial markets remain gripped by the persistent geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, alongside ongoing trade tensions between the United States and global partners. Indeed, despite the NFP's significance, the ongoing focus on global trade tariffs could partly limit its influence on market movements. Current market positioning strongly suggests a widespread expectation for a weak report that would ostensibly provide further justification for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut later this year. This sentiment is clearly reflected in both consensus surveys and recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Thus, according to Reuters, analysts expect to see only a modest increase of approximately 110,000 jobs, the lowest projected figure since November 2024. Concurrently, the DXY is hovering near a two-year low, just shy of the 97.00 mark. The primary reason for the greenback's recent weakness has been the prevailing dovish monetary policy expectations. In fact, the latest interest rate swaps market data implies almost a 75% chance of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September. Looking further ahead, the market currently prices in around 30% probability of a full percentage point reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate by July of next year. Potential Outcomes Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, offers a perceptive outlook: 'Several factors, such as a weak dollar, dovish monetary policy expectations, and a rather pessimistic consensus for tomorrow's labour market report suggest that higher-than-expected NFP figures will likely have a disproportionately stronger impact on gold [XAUUSD] and EURUSD vs lower-than-expected figures. In other words, a bullish NFP report's upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will likely outweigh the bearish impact of a weaker-than-expected release'. On balance, in case the NFP report reveals stronger-than-expected results—indicating a larger increase in payrolls and/or higher growth in average hourly earnings—the greenback could experience a substantial rebound, leading to sharp downside corrections for XAUUSD and EURUSD. Conversely, should the NFP report come out weaker than expected, gold and the euro may receive only a minor boost. 'I would treat any correction in gold as a buying opportunity', says Kar Yong Ang. 'XAUUSD remains in a structural uptrend due to strong fundamental reasons, so it is recommended to look for buying opportunities. Consider placing pending buy-limit orders on XAUUSD, particularly near the $3,280 level, in the event of a bearish reaction to the U.S. NFP report. Should a bullish reaction unfold, consider placing pending buy-stop orders on XAUUSD, specifically near $3,360'. ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively. Octa
New Straits Times
09-06-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Ringgit opens lower against greenback amid challenging global economy
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit opened lower against the US dollar on Monday as the greenback strengthened amid renewed volatility from a challenging global economy outlook for the second half of 2025. At 8.03am, the local note stood at 4.2375/2560 against the greenback, easing from Friday's close of 4.2270/2360. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the ringgit is expected to range between RM4.23 and RM4.24 today, following the stronger-than-expected United States Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data for May.
Malaysian Reserve
06-06-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Ringgit advances vs US dollar amid weak US data and tariff concerns
THE ringgit continues to strengthen against the US dollar on Friday, as the United States (US) economic data points to further weakening amid concerns over tariffs and fiscal policies, an analyst said. At 8 am, the local note improved to 4.2140/2335 against the greenback from Thursday's close of 4.2245/2295. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped by 0.05 per cent to 98.741 points as US economic data showed signs of further slowdown. 'US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000 last week, marking the second consecutive week of increases, while the Continuous Jobless Claims remained elevated to 1.904 million for the week ending May 24, 2025. 'The focus tonight will be on the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP), which is expected to reach 125,000 in May (consensus) from the previous month's print of 177,000,' he told Bernama. Mohd Afzanizam said emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, have been appreciating against the US dollar due to a weaker US economic outlook and continued concerns over tariffs and fiscal policies. 'The prevailing market condition defied the norms because the US dollar has been deemed a safe-haven currency. Traders and investors would normally flock to the US dollar to seek protection against extreme volatility,' he said. Mohd Afzanizam said the market will continue to be wary of US tariff policies and the recent fallout between US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk over the government's budgetary position and its impact on the global economy, which may lead to further noise in the market sentiments. 'At the end of the day, it is about prescribing a good policy and implementing it promptly to see the outcome,' he said. Therefore, he said the ringgit may continue to climb in light of the prevailing condition, reaching RM4.20 in the near term. At the opening, the ringgit traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. It appreciated against the Japanese yen to 2.9343/9481 from Thursday's 2.9495/9531 and climbed against the British pound to 5.7226/7491 from 5.7301/7369, but slid versus the euro to 4.8263/8486 from 4.8235/8292. The local currency also traded higher against most of its ASEAN peers. It gained versus the Singapore dollar to 3.2758/2915 from Thursday's close of 3.2881/2922 and was marginally higher against the Indonesian rupiah at 258.7/260.1 from 259.3/259.8. The ringgit surged against the Thai baht to 12.9157/9854 from yesterday's close of 12.9925/13.0138 and edged up against the Philippine peso to 7.57/7.62 from 7.59/7.61. — BERNAMA
The Star
06-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Ringgit advances vs US$ amid weak US data and tariff concerns
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit continues to strengthen against the US dollar on Friday, as the United States (US) economic data points to further weakening amid concerns over tariffs and fiscal policies, an analyst said. At 8 am, the local note improved to 4.2140/2335 against the greenback from Thursday's close of 4.2245/2295. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped by 0.05 per cent to 98.741 points as US economic data showed signs of further slowdown. "US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000 last week, marking the second consecutive week of increases, while the Continuous Jobless Claims remained elevated to 1.904 million for the week ending May 24, 2025. "The focus tonight will be on the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP), which is expected to reach 125,000 in May (consensus) from the previous month's print of 177,000," he told Bernama. Mohd Afzanizam said emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, have been appreciating against the US dollar due to a weaker US economic outlook and continued concerns over tariffs and fiscal policies. "The prevailing market condition defied the norms because the US dollar has been deemed a safe-haven currency. Traders and investors would normally flock to the US dollar to seek protection against extreme volatility,' he said. Mohd Afzanizam said the market will continue to be wary of US tariff policies and the recent fallout between US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk over the government's budgetary position and its impact on the global economy, which may lead to further noise in the market sentiments. "At the end of the day, it is about prescribing a good policy and implementing it promptly to see the outcome," he said. Therefore, he said the ringgit may continue to climb in light of the prevailing condition, reaching RM4.20 in the near term. At the opening, the ringgit traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. It appreciated against the Japanese yen to 2.9343/9481 from Thursday's 2.9495/9531 and climbed against the British pound to 5.7226/7491 from 5.7301/7369, but slid versus the euro to 4.8263/8486 from 4.8235/8292. The local currency also traded higher against most of its ASEAN peers. It gained versus the Singapore dollar to 3.2758/2915 from Thursday's close of 3.2881/2922 and was marginally higher against the Indonesian rupiah at 258.7/260.1 from 259.3/259.8. The ringgit surged against the Thai baht to 12.9157/9854 from yesterday's close of 12.9925/13.0138 and edged up against the Philippine peso to 7.57/7.62 from 7.59/7.61. - Bernama
