Latest news with #NurembergInstituteforMarketDecisions
Fibre2Fashion
5 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK consumer confidence edges up in June, but inflation fears persist
Consumer confidence in UK showed modest improvement in June 2025. The overall index score rose by 2 points to -18, marking a gradual rebound from May's -20 and April's -23, though sentiment remains weaker than in June 2024 (-14), according to Gfk. Consumers' outlook on their personal financial situation held steady. Confidence regarding the past 12 months remained unchanged at -7, while expectations for the next 12 months stood at +2, showing no movement since May, as per the latest GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM). 'This is driven by improvements in how consumers see the general economy, with scores up three points (looking at last year) and up by five points (looking at the next 12 months). Consumers have been resolute in their views on their wallets with June's personal financial situation scores (past and future) unchanged from May,' said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, an NIQ Company . UK consumer confidence rose modestly in June 2025, with the overall index up 2 points to -18, as per GfK. While views on personal finances stayed flat, perceptions of the general economy improved. However, inflation, rising petrol prices, and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on sentiment. The Major Purchase Index remained steady, while the savings index dipped slightly. 'Yet confidence is still fragile because the dark shadow of inflation is a day-to-day challenge for so many of us. With petrol prices set to rise in the coming weeks following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and with ongoing uncertainty as to the full impact of tariffs, there is still much that could negatively impact consumers. With so much volatility, now is certainly not the time to hope for the proverbial 'light at the end of the tunnel,' added Bellamy. Public perception of the general economic situation showed clearer signs of improvement. The view of the past 12 months improved to -43 (up 3 points), while expectations for the coming year rose to -28 (up 5 points). However, both figures remain well below June 2024 levels of -32 and -11, respectively. The Major Purchase Index, which gauges consumers' willingness to make large purchases, held steady at -16. Although better than April's -19, it remains weaker than June 2024's -23. Meanwhile, the savings index slipped by 1 point to 27, continuing its decline from April's 30, though still higher than the 22 recorded a year ago. The data suggest that while confidence is inching upwards, persistent concerns over inflation, geopolitical tensions, and trade-related uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on UK households. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Euronews
27-05-2025
- Business
- Euronews
German consumer confidence rises despite uncertainty
Germany's consumer confidence rose for a third consecutive month in May, but the improvement remains moderate as lingering economic uncertainties continue to weigh on households, according to the latest GfK Consumer Climate report powered by Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions. The forward-looking Consumer Climate index is projected to reach -19.9 in June 2025, up from a revised -20.8 in May. The indicator has now reached its highest level since November 2024, when it stood at -18.4. Nonetheless, sentiment remains deeply negative, reflecting ongoing caution among German consumers. The report shows that rising income and economic expectations are not yet translating into stronger household spending. A modest increase in the willingness to save and a dip in purchase readiness are keeping the overall recovery fragile. 'The level of consumer sentiment remains extremely low, and consumer uncertainty remains high,' said Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at the NIM. 'The unpredictable customs and trade policy of the US government, turbulence on the stock markets and fears of a third consecutive year of stagnation are reasons why the consumer climate remains weak. In view of the general economic situation, people seem to think it advisable to save.' Indeed, the savings indicator rose by 1.6 points in May to 10.0, reversing part of April's sharp decline. The renewed caution is dampening the positive effect of rising income expectations and economic optimism. Consumers' income expectations rose for the third month running, climbing 6.1 points to 10.4 — the highest level since October 2024. Though slightly below the May 2024 reading, the latest figure underscores increasing optimism about household finances. The improved sentiment is underpinned by robust wage settlements and a mild easing in inflation. The recent pay deal in the public sector, which includes a 3% increase this year and an additional 2.8% in 2026, is helping to support purchasing power. According to the Federal Statistical Office, inflation slowed to 2.1% in April, down from 2.2% in the two previous months. Despite stronger income prospects, German households appear reluctant to increase spending. The willingness to buy index fell by 1.5 points in May to -6.4, reversing part of the gains seen earlier this year. Compared to May 2024, however, the indicator is still up by nearly 6 points. According to the survey, concerns over job security and geopolitical instability continue to cloud consumer sentiment. Rising unemployment and fears of job losses are holding back discretionary purchases, even as real incomes improve. Economic expectations rose for the fourth consecutive month, with the index climbing 5.9 points to 13.1 — its highest level since April 2023. The sustained rise suggests that consumers are cautiously hopeful about a broader economic recovery, despite the backdrop of stagnation. The German Council of Economic Experts, in its latest spring report, forecast no GDP growth for 2025 but expects the economy to expand by 1% in 2026, assuming stabilisation in domestic and global conditions. Futures on the DAX indicate the German stock market is set to open flat on Tuesday, after gaining 1.7% on Monday. The bounce was fuelled by Donald Trump's decision to delay steep tariffs on EU goods, easing trade tensions. The US president postponed a planned 50% tariff hike, initially expected to take effect on 1 June, pushing the deadline to 9 July, following a phone call on Sunday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The reprieve is especially significant for Germany, whose export-driven economy depends heavily on the US market for key sectors like pharmaceuticals, industrial machinery, and automotive components. The euro traded at $1.1385, also unchanged for the day. On Monday, the single currency hit $1.1418, the highest level in a month. Shares of BYD, the largest Chinese electric vehicle brand, tumbled 8.6% on Monday following news that the company offered steep discounts in some models, sparking concerns about a fresh price war in China's EV markets. The decline continued in Tuesday's Asian session, with BYD shares falling a further 4% in Hong Kong as of 5am CEST. Despite the drop, the stock remains up more than 50% year-to-date on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In contrast, global competitor Tesla saw little change in its share price on Monday, but remains down 13% year-to-date in 2025. The aggressive pricing strategy has raised concerns over slowing EV demand amid persistent weakness in the Chinese economy and heightened US-China trade tensions. Other major Chinese EV makers also saw declines on Monday, with shares of Geely, Great Wall Motor, and Xpeng falling between 4% and 9% due to fears that deeper discounts could squeeze sector profit margins. BYD announced broad price reductions across 22 electric and plug-in hybrid models, effective until 30 June, according to a post on the company's official Weibo account. The discounts, which range from 10% to 30%, apply to vehicles from its Ocean and Dynasty series. The most significant cut was for the Seal 07 DM-i model, with a discount of 53,000 yuan (€6,460), or 34%. Analysts expect rival Chinese carmakers to follow BYD's lead as domestic competition intensifies. The pricing strategy also appears aimed at reducing the excess inventory of older models. In the first four months of 2025, BYD's dealer inventory rose by approximately 150,000 units, equal to around half a month's worth of retail sales, according to CnEVPost. Citi analysts estimate that the price reductions could drive a 30% to 40% weekly surge in sales. This may potentially offset margin pressure. Despite investor concerns, BYD remains on a strong growth trajectory and continues to challenge Tesla in global markets. In April, BYD reported 380,089 sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), a 21% year-on-year increase. Overseas sales also set a new record for the fifth consecutive month. In a key milestone, BYD outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time last month, with 7,231 new battery-electric vehicles registered, a 169% year-on-year jump. By comparison, Tesla's sales have fallen across Europe in 2025, a trend attributed in part to growing anti-Tesla sentiment linked to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement. During the first quarter, BYD sold nearly 1 million vehicles, placing it firmly on track to achieve its 2025 target of 5.5 million annual vehicle sales. The company reported a net income of 9.15 billion yuan (€1.11 billion), with a gross profit margin of 20%. This compares with Tesla's $409 million (€359 million) and a 16% margin over the same period. BYD is also investing in advanced driver-assistance systems. The company's adoption of DeepSeek's R1 AI model is expected to rival Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, potentially at a significantly lower cost. In addition, BYD is China's second-largest battery manufacturer after CATL, giving it a competitive edge in cost control and vertical integration. BYD is likely to remain less impacted by US tariffs as it does not sell passenger vehicles to the US. Instead, it is focusing on Southeast Asia and South America for international growth. The company is also establishing a manufacturing plant in Hungary, which is expected to boost European sales.
Wall Street Journal
29-04-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
German Consumers Shrug of Tariff Concerns as Confidence Picks Up
German consumer confidence unexpectedly ticked up despite the warnings of the economic hit from U.S. trade policy, as consumers pinned their hopes on the stability of the new incoming government. The consumer-climate index published by research groups GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions ticked up to minus 20.6 in May's forecast, 3.7 points higher than in April. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a fall to minus 26.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows
BERLIN (Reuters) -German consumer sentiment improved further heading into May as the prospect of a new government appeared to soothe households, countering some of the uncertainty unleashed by tensions over import tariffs for now, a survey indicated on Friday. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), remained firmly in negative territory at -20.6 points, up from a slightly revised -24.3 points the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sentiment to rise to -26.0 points. Both income expectations and the willingness to buy showed noticeable increases, while economic expectations improved only slightly, according to the survey. "The realignment of the U.S. administration's trade policy, which began with the announcement of sharp tariff increases shortly before the start of the survey in early April, has apparently not yet had lasting impacts on consumer sentiment in Germany," said Rolf Buerkl at the NIM. "It is clearly more important to German consumers at present that a government will be formed quickly," he added. Conservative chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is expected to be sworn in on May 6 to lead a coalition government tasked with hauling the beleaguered German economy out of a protracted recession even as the tariff conflict deals a fresh blow to its export-driven industry. MAY 2025 APR 2025 MAY 2024 Consumer climate -20.6 -24.3 -24.0 Consumer climate components APR 2025 MAR 2025 APR 2024 - willingness to buy -4.9 -8.2 -12.6 - income expectations 4.3 -3.1 10.7 - willingness to save 8.4 13.8 14.9 - economic expectations 7.2 6.9 0.7 NOTE - The survey period was from April 3 to 14. The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsens in March, GfK finds
By Miranda Murray BERLIN (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment is set to darken heading into March, bucking expectations for a slight improvement, as households keep a wary eye on the economic and political situation in Europe's biggest economy, a survey indicated on Wednesday. The consumer sentiment index, published by GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), fell to -24.7 points from a slightly revised -22.6 points the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sentiment to rise slightly, to -21.4 points. DZ Bank analysts had predicted that sentiment would remain gloomy, but said pessimism could be somewhat mitigated by the prospect of a change in politics after the February 23 election. Conservatives led by Friedrich Merz won the election on Sunday with promises of pro-growth policies to boost an ailing economy, but took just 28.5% of the vote, setting the stage for arduous negotiations to form a viable governing coalition. NIM analyst Rolf Buerkl called for the fast formation of a government and rapid approval of this year's budget to reassure households. "This would create important conditions for consumers to be more willing to spend money and to revive consumption," he said, adding that the current figures show no signs of recovery. Merz's conservatives want to quickly form a government but face tricky coalition talks and the prospect of an obstructive parliament after far-right and far-left parties surged. Consumers' income prospects plunged to a 13-month low in February due to higher prices, an uncertain political and economic situation, and dissatisfaction with politics. Households' willingness to buy also fell to its lowest level since June, and many consumers will continue to spend cautiously over reports about impending factory closures, relocation of production abroad and job cuts, warned the institutes. Europe's largest economy contracted for a second year in a row in 2024, cementing Germany's place as a laggard among its large euro zone peers, and it also shrank in the final quarter of last year, suggesting little sign of an imminent reprieve. MAR 2025 FEB 2025 MAR 2024 Consumer climate -24.7 -22.6 -28.8 Consumer climate components FEB 2025 JAN 2025 FEB 2024 - willingness to buy -11.1 -8.4 -15.0 - income expectations -5.4 -1.1 -4.8 - business cycle expectations 1.2 -1.6 -6.4 NOTE - The survey period was from January 30 to February 10, 2025. The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months. Sign in to access your portfolio
