Latest news with #NuvamaResearch
Mint
08-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Lodha Developers pre-sales dull, but business development activity remains solid
Realty company Lodha Developers Ltd's latest business update didn't excite the Street. Pre-sales or bookings rose 10% year-on-year to ₹4,450 crore in Q1FY26. This growth rate is lower than its full-year growth guidance of 20%. Thus, the stock fell 1.5% on Tuesday. According to the management, geopolitical tensions in the first half of the quarter led to loss of activity for around two weeks. But the management is confident of recovering the loss in the latter part of the year. Lodha remains on track to achieve its FY26 pre-sales guidance of ₹21,000 crore, aided by a strong launch pipeline on the back of significant business development achieved in Q1FY26, it said. In line with the pre-sales trajectory, collections rose 7% year-on-year to ₹2,880 crore but fell sequentially. The management expects collections to be significantly higher in H2FY26 versus H1FY26. On the business development front, Lodha added five new projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, and Bengaluru with gross development value (GDV) or revenue potential of ₹22,700 crore. This is more than 90% of its full-year business development guidance of Rs25,000 crore. Analysts at Nuvama Research expect Lodha to exceed its business development guidance in FY26 just like it did in FY25. Lodha had added ten new projects (excluding digital infra) in FY25 with a GDV of around Rs23,700 crore, beating its target of new project additions worth Rs21,000 crore. However, Lodha will have to clock around 22% year-on-year growth in pre-sales during Q2–Q4FY26 to meet its FY26 pre-sales target, said the Nuvama report dated 7 July. Meanwhile, strong business development activities and continued approvals for ongoing projects led to net debt inch-up by around ₹1,090 crore sequentially to ₹5,080 crore at Q1FY26-end. As of now, key leverage metric–net debt-to-equity ratio–remains below the company's target of 0.5x, but movement in debt will be closely watched. Also Read: Why Macrotech is upbeat about its prospects even as India's realty market braces for a slowdown Lodha's shares are down around 3% so far in 2025 versus Nifty Realty index's 8% drop. The stock's performance can revive meaningfully on pre-sales picking up from hereon and timely new launches. Geographical diversification and the pace of land monetisation at Palava are also seen as other potential triggers. Remember, in its Q4FY25 earnings call, the management had said that it plans to enter a new city in FY26. On the flipside, an industry-specific challenge is emerging as rising home prices have made affordability a growing concern for buyers. This is feared to lead to demand moderation for residential units in key markets.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
07-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Sales growth, lower raw material costs to help Godrej Consumer stock
The stock of consumer major Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) rose by over 6 per cent and was the highest gainer in both the Nifty FMCG and BSE100 indices. This surge in stock prices is in response to the strong June quarter (Q1FY26) performance of the company. The company posted double-digit consolidated revenue growth, which comfortably beat the Street's estimates of mid-single-digit growth. The stock has gained about 26 per cent since the start of March, outperforming the Nifty FMCG return, which has been in the single digits during the same period. Aided by high single-digit volume growth, GCPL is expected to post double-digit growth on a consolidated basis. This overall growth is expected to be driven by a robust performance in the India home care business, especially the household insecticides (HI) segment and the Africa geography. In addition to HI, home care includes air care and detergents, accounting for 45 per cent of India's sales and 27 per cent of the consolidated business. Commenting on the performance of GCPL and other FMCG majors, analysts led by Abneesh Roy of Nuvama Research pointed out that companie.s, except those with large summer categories, are surprising positively, indicating that the worst of the slowdown is behind and a gradual recovery is ahead. For GCPL, the HI segment in India exceeded expectations, with mid-to-high single-digit growth, driven by incense sticks, new electrical formulations, a strong June recovery from new ad campaigns, and favourable weather. Household insecticides had delivered strong double-digit volume growth in Q4FY25, boosted by a favourable season and effective premiumisation. Goodknight Agarbatti emerged as the market leader, while premium formats, like liquid vapourisers with the new molecule RNF, continued to capture market share, reflecting consumer acceptance and the success of premiumisation efforts. While home care performed well, personal care (51 per cent of India sales) is expected to grow in the low-single digits during the quarter, affected by the soaps segment, which saw price-volume rebalancing due to commodity volatility. A steep rise in palm oil inflation and price adjustments led to volume decline in the March quarter and compressed margins. Standalone (India business) operating profit margins are likely to be below the normative range (24 per cent–26 per cent) due to higher input costs, advertising and promotional spend, and delayed pricing action in soaps. Given these pressures, analysts led by Mehul Desai of JM Financial Research expect margin compression of 270 basis points Y-o-Y. With palm oil prices moderating at the end of June, the company expects the gains to flow through to the operating level in the second half of FY26. In the international business, Indonesia, which accounts for 14 per cent of consolidated sales, is expected to see flat volume growth due to rising competitive pressures. The other parts of the global business, which are grouped under Godrej Africa, USA, and the Middle East, are expected to maintain their growth momentum, delivering double-digit value and volume growth, alongside robust margins. The company has maintained its guidance of high-single-digit consolidated revenue growth, driven by mid-to-high-single-digit volumes for the standalone business in FY26. The pre-quarter update and the strong near-term outlook are expected to support the stock.
Mint
01-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Why does the Indian stock market expect better Q1FY26 results? Explained with four key reasons
Q1FY26 results preview: After almost four quarters of unimpressive earnings, hopes are high that the Q1FY26 earnings will cheer the Indian stock market up. FY25 was a mixed year for Indian corporates, with earnings witnessing widespread downgrades. Soft demand and tepid capital expenditure dragged the overall corporate performance during the last financial year. According to Nuvama Research, the aggregate profit after tax (PAT) of BSE 500 companies (excluding oil marketing companies) saw a modest growth of 10 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY25, and 9 per cent for the full FY25. This was down from a solid 21 per cent growth in FY24. Here are four key factors that indicate Indian Inc.'s performance in Q1FY26 will be better: The Nifty 50 delivered a 4 per cent year-on-year growth in Q1FY25, reporting the first quarter of single-digit EBITDA growth in four years. Experts believe the low base effect will play its part in Q1FY26. "Q1FY26 may be a better year-on-year, mainly because of the low base effect. Also, a lot of cyclical sectors, such as metals, oil and gas, are expected to do well," said Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities. RBI rate cuts are a key indicator that suggests Indian corporate earnings will be better in FY26 than last year. "The results season for the April to June 2025 quarter will kick in. The larger section of companies is expected to benefit from three successive rate cuts by the RBI. The impact of the first two cuts will be felt on corporates' bottom lines, and this should help in better earnings," said Arun Kejriwal, Founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. "Revenues or topline growth is expected when the liquidity infused by RBI through the CRR cut of 100 basis points in four tranches of 25 basis points each kicks in to match the festival season," said Kejriwal. India's gross collection of goods and services tax (GST) hit an all-time high of ₹ 22.08 lakh crore in FY25, up 9.4 per cent year-on-year, according to an official statement on 30 June. The record GST collection suggests that India's economic activity remained strong last financial year, which should translate into improved corporate earnings. India's inflation eased steadily in FY25, averaging around 4.8 per cent. The relatively moderate price rise meant that companies faced less pressure from input cost inflation. This environment likely supported better operating margins, contributing to improved corporate profitability. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
India Gazette
12-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India's coal output to further decline in June followed by fall of 4.7% in Apr-May: Nuvama
New Delhi [India], June 12 (ANI): The coal output in the country is expected to decline further in June as demand remained muted across several regions during the pre-monsoon season, according to a report by Nuvama Research. The report highlighted that India's major coal producer, Coal India Ltd (CIL), has started FY26 on a weak note with sales volumes falling about 4.7 per cent year-on-year during the April-May 2025 period. It said 'Volume growth missing; long-term volume growth too at risk COAL started FY26 on a soft note with sales volume down approx. 4.7 per cent YoY during Apr-May '25. We reckon a volume decline even in Jun-25'. Data from the Ministry of Coal shows that overall power demand during April-May 2025 fell 1.6 per cent YoY, impacting coal demand across many regions. In addition to this, rising volumes from captive and commercial coal mines have further dented Coal India's market share. During April-May 2025, coal volume from captive and other producers rose 14.5 per cent YoY to nearly 35 million tonnes (mt), capturing 20 per cent of the overall demand, up from 17.5 per cent in the same period last year. Over the course of FY25, captive and other mines consumed 197 mt of coal, registering a strong 31 per cent YoY increase. The report highlighted that the peak rated capacity of captive mines allotted or auctioned so far stands at 575 mtpa, raising long-term volume growth concerns for Coal India. As a result, the report has revised down its sales volume estimates for Coal India by 2 per cent for both FY26E and FY27E, to 770 mt and 793 mt, respectively. This translates to just a 2 per cent volume CAGR over FY25-27E. In terms of production capacity, Coal India is also facing challenges due to high inventory levels. At the end of May 2025, the company held a coal stock of around 112 mt, significantly higher than the 82 mt inventory at the end of May 2024. The average inventory from FY20 to FY25 was 83 mt. Such high stock levels are expected to limit any major production increase. On the cost front, Coal India is likely to see a rise in its cost of production (CoP) due to multiple factors. The stripping ratio, a key cost driver, is expected to rise to 2.67x in FY26 from 2.58x in FY25. This would push up production costs as there is no corresponding volume growth to provide operating leverage. Additionally, FY27 could see another spike in costs due to higher employee expenses stemming from the next wage revision for non-executive staff scheduled for June 2026. The report projects Coal India's total cost of production to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4 per cent over FY25-27E, reaching Rs 1,422 per tonne by FY27. (ANI)
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's coal output to further decline in June followed by fall of 4.7% in Apr-May: Nuvama
New Delhi: The coal output in the country is expected to decline further in June as demand remained muted across several regions during the pre-monsoon season, according to a report by Nuvama Research. The report highlighted that India's major coal producer, Coal India Ltd (CIL), has started FY26 on a weak note with sales volumes falling about 4.7 per cent year-on-year during the April-May 2025 period. It said "Volume growth missing; long-term volume growth too at risk COAL started FY26 on a soft note with sales volume down approx. 4.7 per cent YoY during Apr-May '25. We reckon a volume decline even in Jun-25". Data from the Ministry of Coal shows that overall power demand during April-May 2025 fell 1.6 per cent YoY, impacting coal demand across many regions. In addition to this, rising volumes from captive and commercial coal mines have further dented Coal India's market share. During April-May 2025, coal volume from captive and other producers rose 14.5 per cent YoY to nearly 35 million tonnes (mt), capturing 20 per cent of the overall demand, up from 17.5 per cent in the same period last year. Over the course of FY25, captive and other mines consumed 197 mt of coal, registering a strong 31 per cent YoY increase. The report highlighted that the peak rated capacity of captive mines allotted or auctioned so far stands at 575 mtpa, raising long-term volume growth concerns for Coal India. As a result, the report has revised down its sales volume estimates for Coal India by 2 per cent for both FY26E and FY27E, to 770 mt and 793 mt, respectively. This translates to just a 2 per cent volume CAGR over FY25-27E. In terms of production capacity, Coal India is also facing challenges due to high inventory levels. At the end of May 2025, the company held a coal stock of around 112 mt, significantly higher than the 82 mt inventory at the end of May 2024. The average inventory from FY20 to FY25 was 83 mt. Such high stock levels are expected to limit any major production increase. On the cost front, Coal India is likely to see a rise in its cost of production (CoP) due to multiple factors. The stripping ratio, a key cost driver, is expected to rise to 2.67x in FY26 from 2.58x in FY25. This would push up production costs as there is no corresponding volume growth to provide operating leverage. Additionally, FY27 could see another spike in costs due to higher employee expenses stemming from the next wage revision for non-executive staff scheduled for June 2026. The report projects Coal India's total cost of production to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4 per cent over FY25-27E, reaching Rs 1,422 per tonne by FY27.
