Latest news with #OPECPlus
Zawya
an hour ago
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC+ set to complete big oil output cut unwinding in Sept, sources say
LONDON: OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members and the United Arab Emirates' move to a larger quota, five sources said. The group, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it has reversed course this year to regain market share and as U.S. President Donald Trump demanded the group pump more to help keep gasoline prices lower. OPEC+ began to unwind cuts of 2.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in April with a boost of 138,000 bpd. Hikes of 411,000 bpd followed in May, June and July, despite falling oil prices. On Saturday, the group approved a 548,000 bpd jump for August. Five sources familiar with the discussions said on Monday the group is likely to approve an increase of around 550,000 bpd for September when it meets on August 3. That will complete the return to the market of 2.17 million bpd from the eight members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria. It will also complete an additional 300,000 bpd output jump from the UAE as the country moves to a larger production quota, the sources said. OPEC and the UAE did not respond to requests for comment. The September boost if realised would bring total production increases since April to 2.47 million bpd or just under 2.5% of global demand. The rise would see OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia pumping close to 10 million bpd and UAE some 3.375 million bpd. The UAE has long complained about its low production quota of around 3 million bpd, arguing it has invested heavily to be able to produce over 4 million bpd. OPEC+ agreed to boost the UAE's quota by 300,000 bpd in June 2024, telling the country to raise production gradually so as to complete the increase by September 2025. OPEC+ then repeatedly postponed its own production increases and pushed back the UAE's higher quota to September 2026. However, it has spurred bigger production increases since May, bringing forward the return of its own barrels to the market and effectively allowing the UAE to boost output quicker, returning to the original schedule of September 2025. "As the group has decided to accelerate the unwinding process, the UAE is benefiting from this speeding up of the quota increases," said Richard Bronze from Energy Aspects. OPEC+ still has separate cuts of 3.66 million bpd in place consisting of 1.66 million bpd in voluntary cuts and some 2 million bpd across all members, which expire at the end of 2026. (Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Maha El Dahan; writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Jason Neely)
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
OPEC+ to Boost Oil Supply Faster Than Expected in August
OPEC+ will increase oil production even more rapidly than expected next month as eight key alliance members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a video conference on Saturday. The countries had announced increases of 411,000 barrels for each of May, June and July. Bloomberg's Anthony di Paola reports. Sign in to access your portfolio
Zawya
5 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC+ is pumping more oil, but is it needed and at what price?: Russell
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) LAUNCESTON, Australia - Two questions stand out after the decision by OPEC+ to accelerate increases in crude oil output: who is going to buy the extra crude, and will the group actually export the additional barrels they say they are going to produce? OPEC+ agreed at a weekend meeting to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, up from the 411,000 bpd the group had approved for May, June and July, and 138,000 bpd for April. The production boost will come from eight members of the group - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria. The increase for August means that the eight will have unwound 1.919 million bpd of the voluntary 2.2 million bpd they had imposed last year in a bid to support crude prices. OPEC+ cited what it called "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals" in the statement announcing the increased August output, sticking to a theme from its recent communiques that the oil market is in fine shape. However, the reality may not be quite as rosy as OPEC+ paints, with tepid demand growth in major consumers such as China, the world's top oil importer. China's crude imports barely rose in the first five months of the year, with official data showing a gain of 0.3%, or 28,500 bpd, to 11.1 million bpd. The growth rate will likely tick up when June data is released next week, with LSEG Oil Research expecting imports of 11.96 million bpd for the month, up from the customs number of 11.30 million bpd for June 2024. While China's imports are likely to have been strong in June, the reason why is not quite so bullish. It is likely that refiners were buying more crude than they intended to process because prices were lower at the time when June-arriving cargoes were arranged. Global benchmark Brent futures hit a four-year low of $58.50 a barrel on May 5 and had been trending lower since early April, the time period when June-arriving cargoes would have been bought. The weakness in prices has seen oil imports by Asia, which buys about 60% of seaborne crude, rise in June, with LSEG estimating arrivals of 28.65 million bpd, the most since January 2023. The higher June imports lifted Asia's arrivals for the first half of 2025 to 27.36 million bpd, up 620,000 bpd for the same period last year. Coincidentally this is largely in line with the demand growth forecasts for the region by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with the group's June monthly report forecasting demand growth of 630,000 bpd for non-OECD Asia in 2025. PRICES KEY The question is whether the second half will see higher imports in Asia, or if the momentum seen in June will dissipate. Much will depend on prices, as history suggests that when prices rise importers such as China and India tend to trim imports and use up stockpiles. The brief surge in prices in mid-June sparked by Israel's attacks on Iran, later joined by the United States, will probably be enough to see China lower imports in August and perhaps September. For imports to rise in the fourth quarter, it will likely take lower oil prices to encourage buying and inventory builds. In that case the ball is largely in OPEC+'s court. If the group starts producing what their quotas allow, and furthermore actually exports this oil, then it's likely that prices will continue to soften, thereby encouraging buying. So far, it appears that actual output has lagged the higher quotas, with the five OPEC members of OPEC+ raising output by 267,000 bpd in June, short of the 313,000 bpd allowed, according to a Reuters survey released on July 4. Much will depend on what Saudi Arabia does, given that OPEC+'s largest exporter is the producer with the most spare capacity and the most ability to raise output. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
Reuters
8 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ members to increase oil production by 550,000 bpd in September
July 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it expects a group of eight OPEC+ members to lift oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, which would complete the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts, as they look to normalize spare capacity amid resilient global oil demand. The forecast published on Sunday came after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 bpd in August, further accelerating output at its first meeting since oil prices spiked and retreated following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran. "Saturday's announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing," Goldman said. The bank expects crude production from the eight members of OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, to rise by 1.67 million bpd between March and September, reaching 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia driving more than 60% of the increase. The eight countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria. Goldman maintained its Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, citing offsetting factors such as supply misses relative to its expectations, most notably in Russia, and reduced spare capacity supporting long-dated oil prices. Goldman also highlighted upside risks to oil demand, forecasting global consumption to rise by 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, driven by robust Chinese oil demand, resilient global economic activity and further U.S. dollar depreciation. While the bank sees balanced risks for its 2025 price forecast, it views downside risks for 2026, citing the potential unwinding of the second post-pandemic round of 1.65 million bpd of cuts by OPEC+ and elevated U.S. recession probabilities, which its economists estimate at 30%.
Wall Street Journal
11 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Oil Falls on Larger-Than-Expected Output Increase by OPEC+
2337 GMT — Oil falls in the early Asian session on the larger-than-expected output increase by OPEC+. The group announced on Saturday that it will raise production by 548,000 barrels a day in August. The planned boost to oil output comes after the group hiked production by 411,000 barrels a day in May, June, and July. Another 411,000 barrels-per-day increase had been widely expected for August. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 1.4% at $66.04/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.7% lower at $67.85/bbl. (
