Latest news with #OfficeoftheChiefEconomist
Arabian Post
29-06-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Australia's Outlook Dim as Bulk Commodities Lose Momentum
Australia's earnings from mining and energy exports are set to decline over the coming years, with rising gold revenues unable to fully offset weak demand and price falls in iron ore, liquefied natural gas and coal. Government projections show a fall from A$415 billion in 2023–24 to A$385 billion in 2024–25, and further to A$352 billion by 2026–27. The Office of the Chief Economist highlights that surplus global supply—particularly in iron ore and LNG—is driving down prices. Forecasts indicate iron ore revenue declining from A$116 billion this year to A$97 billion by 2026–27. Meanwhile, LNG export earnings are projected to slow as US and Qatari output expands, putting downward pressure on prices. Gold is emerging as a relative bright spot. Government figures anticipate gold export earnings reaching A$56 billion next financial year, making it Australia's third‑largest resource export after iron ore and LNG. That upswing is fuelled by both stronger prices and increased volumes, benefiting from investor flows and central‑bank demand amid global uncertainty. ADVERTISEMENT The minister for resources confirms that higher returns from gold, copper and lithium are helping to partly mitigate losses from falling iron ore, coal and LNG prices. Lithium revenues are forecast to rise from A$4.6 billion to A$6.6 billion by 2026–27. Copper too is expected to enjoy gains, driven by global demand for electrification and low‑emission technologies. Despite these modest offsets, headwinds persist. Trade tensions—particularly from US tariffs—have intensified uncertainty, with investment decisions delayed and commodity demand subdued. Analysts warn that a slowing Chinese economy, rising global production capacity and continuous supply growth in key markets will keep downward pressure on prices. Notably, the iron ore sector faces structural constraints. Higher production from new mines in Australia, Brazil and Africa coincides with softening Chinese steel demand, challenging the nation's pricing power. Experts underscore that iron ore export earnings may drop below A$100 billion for the first time this decade by 2026–27. Coal is also on a downward trajectory: metallurgical and thermal coal values are expected to fall from record highs as alternatives gain traction and global supply increases. The energy transition, coupled with shifting investor sentiment and policy interventions, continues to erode demand. Still, some longer‑term resilience remains. Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, uranium and rare earth elements benefit from tailwinds linked to clean‑energy infrastructure. Copper earnings are projected to climb significantly, while uranium demand is buoyed by nuclear power expansion. Australia's first rare‑earth refinery has now begun operations, potentially boosting export diversity. Market watchers caution that Australia's diversified export profile provides some buffer, though it may not fully insulate the economy. The government's quarterly forecast warns that earnings could plateau around A$343 billion by decade's end under current trajectories. Resource sector leaders have urged policy clarity to support investment amid these shifts. Industry groups argue that without reforms, Australia risks lagging in emerging markets such as green steel and battery metals. They call for streamlined approvals, targeted incentives, and regulatory certainty to foster competitiveness. Emerging competition from the United States and Qatar in LNG, and expanding capacity in Africa and Brazil for iron ore, adds complexity. At the same time, the domestic transition to renewables, industrial decarbonisation, and evolving supply chains present both risks and opportunities for Australia's mining future. Australia's export sector now navigates simultaneous pressures: softer bulk‑commodity demand, expanding global supply, and an accelerating shift toward critical minerals. The coming years will be marked by a transition from traditional export staples to a broader, innovation‑driven resource base.
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
Year-over-year price growth slowed to 2.0% in April 2025, with single-family detached homes still growing at 2.46% annual rate while single-family detached homes posted a 0.08% decline — the first annual decline since 2012. Markets with continued largest home price gains this spring remain in Northeast and Midwest, particularly more affordable areas surrounding large expensive metros. Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. reported negative home price growth. IRVINE, Calif., June 03, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest Cotality Home Price Index™ (HPI™) for April 2025. April posted the lowest home price growth in more than a decade. Widespread concern about personal finances, job prospects, and potential tariff impacts continues to weigh on home prices. "Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue," said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively. "It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably," explained Hepp. "About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022." Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets. The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. Source: Cotality The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at View source version on Contacts Media Contact Charity HeadCotalityNewsmedia@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
03-06-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest Cotality Home Price Index™ (HPI™) for April 2025. April posted the lowest home price growth in more than a decade. Widespread concern about personal finances, job prospects, and potential tariff impacts continues to weigh on home prices. 'With more visibility around tariffs, diminishing concerns about an economic recession, and more homes for sale, the homebuying market could see some improved optimism and more activity going forward.' Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality Chief Economist Share 'Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue,' said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively. 'It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably,' explained Hepp. 'About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022.' Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets. The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI ™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts ™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. Source: Cotality The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at
