Latest news with #Oil2025
Gulf Insider
11-07-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million BPD
OPEC projects oil demand rising 19% to 123 million bpd by 2050, led by India and Africa. The forecast contrasts sharply with IEA projections of demand peaking by 2030. U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement seen by OPEC as supporting continued hydrocarbon demand. 'There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,' OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd). In view of slowing Chinese demand growth, OPEC revised down its oil demand growth forecasts for all years between 2025 and 2029. However, global economic development with growing demand for oil and an increasing global population and middle class are set to underpin demand growth in the coming decades. OPEC reiterated its view that there is no peak oil demand in sight and the world will see continued rising consumption for decades. India will lead global oil demand growth through 2050, boosting consumption by 8.2 million bpd between 2025 and 2020. The Middle East and Africa will also be key demand growth drivers, according to OPEC's view. Moreover, oil demand will also be supported by U.S. President Donald Trump's exit from the Paris Agreement. 'The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will impact climate change negotiations and would most likely result in higher demand for hydrocarbons in general, and oil and gas in particular,' OPEC said in the World Oil Outlook as cited by Bloomberg. 'Continued, and even marginally higher, oil demand in the US is to be expected over the medium-term period.' OPEC's view that there is no peak oil demand on the horizon contrasts with forecasts from the industry and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Many of the largest oil firms see demand plateauing at some point next decade, while the IEA has just doubled down on its narrative that a peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, per the IEA's annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 'to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today's policy settings and market trends,' the IEA said. Also read: Oil Markets Are Tighter Than They Look
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
IEA projects 1 mb/d rise in India's oil demand by 2030; transport fuels to lead growth
New Delhi: India's oil demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the forecast period through 2030, more than any other country, driven by continued economic expansion and strong consumption of transport and industrial fuels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 report. The agency said India's GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent in oil-equivalent terms. 'India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy in 2025 for a fourth year running and is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth largest economy this year,' the IEA stated. 'India's oil demand will increase by a steep 1 mb/d over the forecast period – more than any other country – in the wake of stellar GDP expansion,' it said. According to the report, transport fuels will lead the gains in India's oil demand, a trend that contrasts with global patterns where industrial use dominates. Jet/kerosene demand in India is expected to rise at an annual rate of almost 6 per cent. The report attributes this to population growth of 5 per cent between 2025 and 2030 and an expanding middle class that is increasingly spending on foreign travel and luxury services. Gasoline demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4 per cent. 'Our models assume a 40 per cent increase in the size of the car fleet by 2030 – a rate of expansion that comfortably outstrips the impact of efficiencies and EVs,' the IEA said. It noted that electric vehicle growth in India will be concentrated in two- and three-wheelers, while four-wheeler penetration remains low. The IEA flagged a potential risk to its demand outlook, noting that a significant portion of India's consumption boom is debt-fuelled. 'Household debt rose to 43 per cent of GDP in 2024, up from 35 per cent in 2022, and a possible credit spiral could derail expansion,' it said. Industrial fuels are also expected to register strong growth. Gasoil, which accounts for nearly one-third of India's oil use, is projected to grow by 380,000 barrels per day over the forecast period, with an annual growth rate of 3.3 per cent. Growth drivers include urbanisation, industrialisation, and infrastructure development. Naphtha and LPG/ethane demand are projected to grow at annual rates of 2.0 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. The expansion in petrochemical feedstock demand is linked to new project commissioning. The report also noted that LPG demand is being supported by clean cooking initiatives. 'Government subsidy programmes have been instrumental in this respect, in particular the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana scheme launched in 2016 that aims to provide LPG connections across the country, replacing traditional cooking methods,' the IEA said. The agency said India's oil demand profile will continue to diverge from trends in advanced economies, with both retail and industrial fuel use rising through the end of the decade.>
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Why Forecasters Can't Agree On When Oil Demand Will Peak
Oil demand is set to plateau rather than drop off a cliff after it peaks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted this week, citing 'policy settings and market trends.' But here's the thing about policy settings and market trends: they change. That oil demand is set to peak before 2030 has been repeated ad nauseam by various forecasters, including, notably, Chinese energy majors Sinopec and CNPC. Indeed, OPEC is the only forecaster of demand that does not see it peaking anytime soon. Of course, OPEC is interested in its predictions panning out—but so is the IEA, a vocal proponent of the shift to electrification in transport and moving from hydrocarbon-fueled baseload generation to weather-dependent wind and solar, as are many governments of large oil consumers. When the IEA cited those 'policy settings and market trends' in its latest Oil Market Report and its Oil 2025 report, which came out together this week, it was that shift to EVs and the move to wind and solar that it meant as drivers of falling oil demand. But there are some challenges facing both assumptions. A recent Shell-commissioned survey found that while existing EV owners tend to feel more confident about their vehicles, many prospective buyers remain hesitant—citing cost as a major barrier. 'While current EV drivers are feeling more confident, the relatively high cost of owning an electric vehicle, combined with broader economic pressures, are making it a difficult decision for new consumers,' Shell's VP for mobility and convenience, David Bunch, said, as quoted by Bloomberg this week. China remains an exception, thanks to extensive subsidies and a highly competitive market that has driven down prices. However, even in China, this model may be reaching its limits. 'It's very extreme, tough competition,' an executive vice president of BYD told Bloomberg. 'No, it's not sustainable,' Stella Li added, referring to the current situation in China's electric car sector. The most likely prospect is consolidation. And that may put a stop to the continuous decline in prices. Despite this, many oil demand forecasts—including the IEA's—still rely on projections of steady EV growth. But recent industry decisions suggest a more complex picture. GM announced it would invest $4 billion in expanding internal combustion engine vehicle production. Volvo Cars, which reported strong EV-driven sales last year, saw a 12% drop in overall sales this May, in part due to underperformance in its EV segment. These developments reflect growing pains in the transition—not necessarily a reversal, but perhaps a recalibration of expectations. If one of the largest U.S. automakers is tempering its EV ambitions, it raises the question: how many others might adjust course, especially if EV profitability continues to lag behind that of ICE vehicles? Then there is the issue of 'policy settings.' In this respect, Europe is perhaps the best example of trying to go against nature and suffering adverse consequences. Here, we have the European Union's and the UK's leadership bent on having an energy transition whether anyone wants it or not, up to and including, in the UK's case, decimating local oil and gas production in favor of imports of both, plus electricity. In the EU, the leadership is discussing a ban on any oil products that may have been produced from Russian crude oil—when the EU is a major importer of oil derivatives from Asia, which in turn features the two biggest buyers of Russian crude, China and India. The IEA and most other forecasters are quite certain that this sort of energy policy would ultimately lead to lower oil demand. That's despite the fact that the UK's extremely pro-transition government conceded the country still needs North Sea oil and gas so they limited their efforts to ban it to new exploration only. It's also despite the fact that Austria has joined Slovakia and Hungary in opposing a total ban on Russian gas imports—after the EU booked a record in LNG imports from Russia last year. However, on the ground, as it were, reality keeps shattering these visions, and oil demand remains strong. Naturally, economic trends and events such as inflation and tariffs affect demand negatively when they go up. This has always been the case and always will be, when it comes to oil. But the fact that prices surged immediately after Israel launched missiles at Iran last Friday shows quite clearly that the world is still as hooked on crude as it has been for a century. One might argue that it was a knee-jerk reaction on the part of traders given that Iran is the third-largest crude producer in OPEC with over 3 million bpd in output. One might extend this argument to include OPEC's oft-cited spare capacity that amounts to some 5 million bpd. However, a counter-argument could also be made, namely, that prices rose because the market is not as oversupplied as assumed and that it can very quickly stop being well supplied at all. As for OPEC's spare capacity—well, they have to want to use it. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
IEA Doubles Down On Peak Oil Demand Forecast
A peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, doubling down on its forecast that demand will plateau by the end of the decade. China's oil demand, which increased by a cumulative 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the decade to 2024, is set to peak earlier than previously expected, the agency said in its annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. While China – the world's top crude oil importer – accounted for 60% of the global increase in oil consumption in 2015-2024, 'the picture to 2030 looks very different,' the IEA said. China's demand is on track to peak in 2027 – two years earlier than previously thought – amid 'an extraordinary surge in EV sales, the continued deployment of trucks running on liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as strong growth in the country's high-speed rail network, along with structural shifts in its economy.' Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, per the agency's latest estimates. Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 'to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today's policy settings and market trends,' the IEA said. The agency expects below-trend economic growth, weighed down by global trade tensions and fiscal imbalances, and accelerating substitution away from oil in the transport and power generation sectors. At the same time, the increase in global oil supply is 'set to far outpace demand growth in coming years,' according to the agency. 'Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead – but recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security,' IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. If no major supply disruptions occur, the oil market will be comfortably supplied through 2030, the agency reckons, but warned that 'significant uncertainties remain, especially given rising geopolitical risks and heightened trade tensions.' The IEA's 'peak demand on the horizon' narrative once again clashes with OPEC's view of growing oil demand at least into the 2040s. Just last week, OPEC Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, said that oil demand would continue growing over the coming decades as the world's population increases. 'Simply put, there is no 'peak in oil demand' on the horizon,' Al Ghais said at The Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary, Canada. By Michael Kern for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Global oil demand to dip in 2030, first drop since Covid: IEA
Global oil demand will fall slightly in 2030, its first drop since the 2020 Covid pandemic, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. In an annual outlook for the oil market, the Paris-based agency cited sluggish economic growth, global trade tensions, the rise of electric cars and the shift away from crude to produce power. Annual demand growth will slow from around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026 "to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030", the IEA said. Total demand is forecast to reach 105.5 million bpd in 2030 after peaking at 105.6 million bpd in 2029. Oil demand dropped dramatically in 2020, when countries locked down and shut their borders during the Covid pandemic, falling to 91.7 million bpd before steadily growing again in the following years. Demand in the world's top consumer, the United States, is expected to peak this year and start to decline in 2026 while consumption in China, the top importer of crude, will fall from 2028, according to the "Oil 2025" report. Demand in the Middle East will also peak in 2027 and decline the following year. Saudi Arabia will post the "single largest decline in oil demand for any country" in absolute terms through 2030 as the kingdom replaces crude with gas and renewable energy to produce power, the IEA said. - US and Saudis to lead output - The report comes as oil prices have surged since Israel launched air strikes against Iran last week, prompting Tehran to fire missiles back at its arch foe. The price increases "are not driven by the fundamentals", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a news conference. "We have a lot of supply oil in the market. Demand is much weaker than the supply." "We don't expect high oil prices to be with us for a very long time," Birol said, adding that the IEA stood ready to act if there are any supply disruptions. While the conflict "focuses attention on immediate energy security risks", the IEA said oil supply growth will "far outpace" the increase in demand in coming years. World oil production capacity is forecast to rise by 5.1 million bpd -- double the pace of demand -- to 114.7 million bpd by 2030, the report found. "Combined, Saudi Arabia and the United States will contribute 40 percent to total global oil capacity growth in the forecast period," it said. nal-lth/cw Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
