Latest news with #OliverAllen
Daily Mail
02-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Housing market hits milestone not seen since 2009
The housing market has reached a milestone it has not seen for 15 years, and it could be good news for buyers. The number of newly built homes on the market is at the highest level it has been since 2009. Home builders are struggling to find buyers in the frozen housing market, as elevated interest rates disincentive existing owners moving, and keep mortgages out of reach for many first time buyers. Coupled with house prices remaining at their most unaffordable level in recent history, the result is an unusually high inventory of new-build homes available. Home builders are offering discounts and perks as they try to offload them, according to Marketwatch. The typical home buyer cannot afford to pay current prices and current interest rates on a mortgage. 'The big story in the housing sector remains the inventory situation,' Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S wrote in a note to investors. Stanley says the inventory is now 'bloated' and has been since last spring when the market tends to pick up pace. Despite builders efforts to entice buyers, success has been limited, according to Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. 'Mortgage rates remain too high for sales to climb significantly higher, while the softening labor market likely will limit the flow of potential home buyers,' Allen wrote in a note. 'With housing payments at an all-time high, many buyers are feeling priced out,' Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather (pictured) told earlier this year. 'But sellers still need to move, which means they're increasingly offering concessions to get deals done — especially on condos and townhomes.' Major builder Lennar have said they will look to lower prices in order to move its existing inventory. And Lennar is not alone. Around 30 percent of builders cut home prices in January, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported — by an average of 5 percent. 61 percent of builders also offered sales incentives in January, the NAHB survey revealed. Incentives include mortgage-rate buydowns and smaller floor plans. Sales of newly built homes did grow in 2024 compared to 2023, according to federal government data, but inventory remains elevated. By contrast, 2024 was the worst year for sales in 30 years for the resale home market. Inventory in the resale home category is also rising, up 16.2 percent from a year ago, which gives buyers more options too. The South and West of the country are the most attractive regions for prospective new construction buyers, a new report from revealed. The regions have larger shares of new build homes available on the market, lower new construction premiums, and more opportunities for mortgage rate buydowns, the report found.
The Star
12-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
American inflation seen picking up with some tariff pass-through
The consumer price index is seen rising 0.3% from April after increasing 0.2% the previous month, excluding the volatile food and energy categories. — Bloomberg NEW YORK: Forecasters say underlying US inflation likely picked up in May, reflecting a modest impact from tariff pass-through for goods that are mostly imported, while some services like airfares saw smaller price gains or outright declines. The consumer price index (CPI) is seen rising 0.3% from April after increasing 0.2% the previous month, excluding the volatile food and energy categories. On a yearly basis, the estimated 2.9% increase would mark a reversal of a downtrend so far this year, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. 'Only a few goods prices likely rose as a result of the new tariffs in May – June will be a different story – while some providers of discretionary services probably cut prices or kept them low to sustain demand,' Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen said in a note. Economists have been monitoring how higher costs from the trade war initiated by the Trump administration's tariffs are being passed along to consumers. The impact has been minimal in the CPI report through April as businesses absorbed some of the costs and relied on inventories bought before higher levies were put in place. But companies, including Walmart Inc, have since said that they would start increasing prices on some goods. Tariffs should have a broader impact on the data than in April, when the clearest sign of duties-driven price hikes was the 8.8% monthly spike in audio equipment, Bank of America economists Stephen Juneau and Jeseo Park wrote in a note. Other categories to watch are apparel, new cars and other heavily tariffed goods such as household appliances. 'Pre-tariff inventory building and hope that the current scale of tariffs may be reduced have helped to restrain cost increases thus far,' Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Nicole Cervi said in a note. 'That said, as the higher tariff regime persists, shielding consumers from the costs is likely to become more challenging.' Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have indicated they have time to assess the impact of trade policy on the economy, inflation and job market. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Disinflation in services categories probably helped keep a lid on the overall CPI figures, according to forecasters. Airfares and hotel prices have remained subdued in recent months, said BNP Paribas' Andrew Schneider, adding he expects deflation for both in May. A decline in foreign tourism may be contributing to the softness, Schneider wrote in a note. The drop in prices in some services categories are reflecting a pullback from consumers in discretionary spending, according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. She, too, expects a decrease in airline ticket prices. 'Consumers and the government sector have been pulling back on travel this year, and airfares continued their deflationary trajectory in May,' Wong wrote in a note. — Bloomberg
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Unemployment claims rise to highest level in 8 months, signaling slowdown
Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits last week rose to their highest level in eight months, a sign the labor market might be losing steam as concerns over tariffs take hold of U.S. businesses and consumers. New applications for jobless benefits in the week ending May 31 reached 247,000, up 8,000 from the week prior, data from the Labor Department shows. The figure exceeded economists' predictions of 235,000 claims, according to financial data firm FactSet. Overall filings for unemployment claims remain at historic lows. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of May 24 was 1.9 million, down 3,000 from the week prior. Still, the uptick in initial jobless claims last week is "hard to dismiss," Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, as the climb could point to broader shifts in the workforce ahead of the May jobs report, to be released tomorrow. "Moreover, a relatively weak hiring rate means that the share of newly unemployed workers who are struggling to find a new job quickly is slowly creeping up, too," he said in an email note. "The further downward pressure on hiring from tariff-related uncertainty will add to these growing strains on the jobs market." Jobless claims have mostly floated between 200,000 to 250,000 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 upended the labor market. "Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it's a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. Firings overseen by the Trump Administration's Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE, are the leading cause of job cuts in 2025, with over 280,000 federal workers abruptly terminated from jobs so far this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other signs of potential slowdown A national employment report released yesterday by ADP, a payroll and human resources software provider, found that the U.S. economy added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest pace of hiring since May 2023. "After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday. Another sign of a cooling labor market: The number of Americans who quit their jobs fell in April, while layoffs climbed, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's despite the fact job openings for the month increased, reaching 7.4 million in April. Layoffs at large U.S. companies Several major companies have revealed layoffs this year including Walmart, which announced in late May that it was reducing 1,500 employees from its global tech workforce in a bid to increase efficiency rapidly evolving technological advances. On Thursday, Consumer goods retailer Procter & Gamble, the company behind many major household brands including Tide detergent, Bounty paper towels and Pampers diapers, announced this week that it would cut 7,000 employees from its workforce over the next two years, as it competes in an "increasingly challenging environment." Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Walt Disney Co., Microsoft and Facebook parent company Meta have also announced layoffs this year. While job cuts by U.S.-based employees were down 12% in May from the previous month, according to new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, they are up 47% from the same month last year. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement firm. Many companies have lowered their sales and profit expectations for 2025 in their recent earnings statements. And consumer confidence remains shaky, despite some signs of relief. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that employers added 130,000 jobs last month, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. Sneak peek: Where is Jermain Charlo? What to know about President Trump's travel ban on nationals from 12 countries Hegseth orders Navy to rename USNS Harvey Milk, Jeffries calls it "a complete and total disgrace"
CBS News
05-06-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Unemployment claims rise to highest level in 8 months, signaling slowdown in job market
Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits last week rose to their highest level in eight months, a sign the labor market might be losing steam as concerns over tariffs take hold of U.S. businesses and consumers. New applications for jobless benefits in the week ending May 31 reached 247,000, up 8,000 from the week prior, data from the Labor Department shows. The figure exceeded economists' predictions of 235,000 claims, according to financial data firm FactSet. Overall filings for unemployment claims remain at historic lows. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of May 24 was 1.9 million, down 3,000 from the week prior. Still, the uptick in initial jobless claims last week is "hard to dismiss," Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, as the climb could point to broader shifts in the workforce ahead of the May jobs report, to be released tomorrow. "Moreover, a relatively weak hiring rate means that the share of newly unemployed workers who are struggling to find a new job quickly is slowly creeping up, too," he said in an email note. "The further downward pressure on hiring from tariff-related uncertainty will add to these growing strains on the jobs market." Jobless claims have mostly floated between 200,000 to 250,000 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 upended the labor market. "Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it's a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. Firings overseen by the Trump Administration's Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE, are the leading cause of job cuts in 2025, with over 280,000 federal workers abruptly terminated from jobs so far this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other signs of potential slowdown A national employment report released yesterday by ADP, a payroll and human resources software provider, found that the U.S. economy added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest pace of hiring since May 2023. "After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday. Another sign of a cooling labor market: The number of Americans who quit their jobs fell in April, while layoffs climbed, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's despite the fact job openings for the month increased, reaching 7.4 million in April. Layoffs at large U.S. companies Several major companies have revealed layoffs this year including Walmart, which announced in late May that it was reducing 1,500 employees from its global tech workforce in a bid to increase efficiency rapidly evolving technological advances. On Thursday, Consumer goods retailer Procter & Gamble, the company behind many major household brands including Tide detergent, Bounty paper towels and Pampers diapers, announced this week that it would cut 7,000 employees from its workforce over the next two years, as it competes in an "increasingly challenging environment." Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Walt Disney Co., Microsoft and Facebook parent company Meta have also announced layoffs this year. While job cuts by U.S.-based employees were down 12% in May from the previous month, according to new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, they are up 47% from the same month last year. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement firm. Many companies have lowered their sales and profit expectations for 2025 in their recent earnings statements. And consumer confidence remains shaky, despite some signs of relief. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that employers added 130,000 jobs last month, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. contributed to this report.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US private payrolls post smallest gain in over two years in May
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added the fewest number of workers in more than two years in May, but the data is probably not a true reflection of the labor market, which is gradually easing amid economic uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs. Private payrolls increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since March 2023, after a downwardly revised rise of 60,000 in April, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would advance by 110,000 following a previously reported increase of 62,000 in April. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for May that is due to be released on Friday by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports. Government data on Tuesday showed there were 1.03 job openings for every unemployed person in April, little changed from March. "As usual, we suggest ignoring the message from the ADP employment report, mostly because it has had a very poor track record in recent years," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The services sector accounted for nearly all the new jobs last month, with payrolls in that category rising by 36,000. That reflected gains in the financial activities, information as well as leisure and hospitality industries. Goods producing sector payrolls declined by 2,000, pulled down by job losses in the manufacturing and mining industries. "Use ADP only to gauge the big picture," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Right now, that picture shows ADP's private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December." The BLS is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 120,000 jobs in May after advancing by 167,000 in April, a Reuters survey showed. Overall nonfarm payrolls are estimated to have increased by 130,000 jobs after rising by 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 4.2%.
