Latest news with #Opec
Business Times
8 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Oil steadies after report of planned Opec+ August output hike
[HOUSTON] Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday (Jun 27), recovering from a midday drop into negative territory following a report that Opec+ was planning to hike production in August, but tumbled about 12 per cent in the week in their biggest drop since March 2023. Brent crude futures settled at US$67.77 a barrel, up four cents or 0.1 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 28 cents or 0.4 per cent at US$65.52 a barrel. Four delegates from Opec+, which includes allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar-size output increase already planned for July. 'The report about an Opec increase came out and prices cratered,' said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Futures Group, about the midday slide. Crude prices were already headed for a 12 per cent decline for the week following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on Jun 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above US$80 a barrel before slumping to US$67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market,' said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. Flynn said expectations of higher demand in the coming months gave crude a boost earlier on Friday. 'We're getting a demand premium on oil,' Flynn said. Prices had also been supported earlier in Friday's session by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst. US government data on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, with refining activity and demand rising. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week. Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the Israel-Iran conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said. China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from Jun 1 to 20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data. The US oil and natural gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell for a fourth straight month to its lowest since October 2021, Baker Hughes said. The number of oil rigs fell by six to 432 this week, also the lowest level since October 2021. REUTERS
Khaleej Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
UAE: Will petrol prices go up or down in July after the Iran-Israel war?
Petrol prices in the UAE could be revised upward for the month of July as global oil prices shot up earlier this month due to regional military conflict. Oil prices jumped after the Israel-Iran war and when later US attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Brent's closing price on average was around $69.87 in June compared to $63.6 last month. Brent oil was trading in the mid $60s a barrel, but it jumped to close to $80 a barrel as the Israel-Iran war escalated and the US was also involved in the conflict. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said geopolitics aside, the supply-demand dynamics continue to favour softer oil prices. 'Global demand prospects are weakening due to trade uncertainties, while supply is ample — thanks to faster production restoration from Opec+. Russia said yesterday it's open to another output hike at the next Opec+ meeting due on July 6. So, if Middle East tensions are truly done and dusted, oil is more likely than not to fall back toward, or even below, the $60 per barrel level,' he said. In the UAE, the Fuel Price Committee kept petrol prices for the month of June unchanged. Currently, Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus 91 are selling at Dh2.58, Dh2.47 and Dh2.39 per litre, respectively. Though retail fuel rates could go up next month, the official decision will be announced next week on Monday. The UAE deregulated petrol prices in 2015 and since then rates have been revised every month to bring them in line with global rates.
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Stocks down with eyes on Middle East, dollar hit by Trump Fed comment
HONG KONG: Most stocks fell Thursday (June 26) and oil rose as traders kept a nervous eye on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, while the dollar dropped after Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets. Uncertainty over the US president's trade war was also keeping sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline. With a shaky peace between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Teheran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back "decades". "We may sign an agreement. I don't know," he told reporters. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to "assert its legitimate rights" to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, edged up for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that Opec and other key producers will lift output. "While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart," wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar. "While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived." Equity markets were mostly down, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Jakarta and Wellington in the red but Tokyo and Taipei in positive territory. That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four per cent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around US$3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants. The dollar held losses after Trump's latest salvo against Powell and suggestion that he was already lining up his replacement. Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank's independence. "I know within three or four people who I'm going to pick," he told reporters after a Nato summit. "I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible," Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year. Trump added that Powell was "average mentally" and had "low IQ for what he does". The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders. Trump's remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president's tariffs on the economy before making a move. "Trump's nomination will amp up the pressure, to the point where we could have a shadow Fed chair before Powell steps down in May next year," said National Australia Bank's Rodrigo Catril. "We think it's fair to suggest that the pressure on Powell to cut rates will increase, and that's adding to selling pressure on the dollar." - AFP
Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Asia: Stocks down with eyes on Mideast, dollar hit by Trump Fed comment
[HONG KONG] Most stocks fell on Thursday and oil rose as traders kept a nervous eye on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, while the dollar dropped after Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets. Uncertainty over the US president's trade war was also keeping sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline. With a shaky peace between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Tehran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back 'decades'. 'We may sign an agreement. I don't know,' he told reporters. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to 'assert its legitimate rights' to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, edged up for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that Opec and other key producers will lift output. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart,' wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar. 'While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived.' Equity markets were mostly down, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Jakarta and Wellington in the red but Tokyo and Taipei in positive territory. That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four per cent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around US$3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants. The dollar held losses after Trump's latest salvo against Powell and suggestion that he was already lining up his replacement. Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank's independence. 'I know within three or four people who I'm going to pick,' he told reporters after a Nato summit. 'I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible,' Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year. Trump added that Powell was 'average mentally' and had 'low IQ for what he does'. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders. Trump's remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president's tariffs on the economy before making a move. 'Trump's nomination will amp up the pressure, to the point where we could have a shadow Fed chair before Powell steps down in May next year,' said National Australia Bank's Rodrigo Catril. 'We think it's fair to suggest that the pressure on Powell to cut rates will increase, and that's adding to selling pressure on the dollar.' AFP
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Post-ceasefire hangover: The world is awash in crude oil right now
After the war, the hangover. While hysteria about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz gripped the oil market for the last few days, the reality could not be more different: a wave of Gulf crude oil was forming. Now, the swell is heading into a global oil market that's already oversupplied—hence Brent crude was trading below $70 a barrel on Tuesday [after US President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran]. The Northern hemisphere summer, which provides a seasonal lift to demand, is the last obstacle before the glut becomes plainly obvious. Oil prices are heading down—quite a lot. If anything, the Israel-Iran '12-Day War' has worsened the supply-versus-demand imbalance even further—not just for the rest of 2025, but perhaps into 2026 too. Also Read: Javier Blas: An Israel-Iran war may not rattle the oil market On the demand side, geopolitical chaos is bad for business—let alone tourism. Petroleum consumption growth, already quite anaemic, is set to slow further, particularly in West Asia. But the biggest change comes from the supply side: The market finds itself swimming in oil. Ironically, one of the big producers pumping more than a month ago is Iran. Hard data is difficult to come by, as Iran does its best to obfuscate its petroleum exports. Still, available satellite photos and other shipping data suggests that Iranian production will reach a fresh seven-year high above 3.5 million barrels a day this month, slightly up from May. That bears repeating: Iranian oil production is up, not down, despite nearly two weeks of heavy Israeli and American bombing. Reading between the lines, Trump has made two things clear: One, he doesn't want oil prices above $70 a barrel; and two, he still thinks Washington and Tehran can sit down to talk. So it's very unlikely that the White House will tighten oil sanctions on Iran, an issue where Trump is very similar to former President Joe Biden: Lots of talk, very little action. Also Read: Mint Quick Edit | West Asia's ceasefire: The oil market got lucky Across the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are all pumping more than a month ago. True, a large chunk of the increase was expected after the Opec+ oil cartel agreed to hike production quotas. Still, early shipping data suggests that exports are rising a touch more than expected, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which leads Opec+. Petro-Logistics, an oil tanker-tracking firm used by many commodity trading houses and hedge funds, estimates that Saudi Arabia will supply the market with 9.6 million barrels a day of crude in June, its highest level in two years. The firm measures the flow of barrels into the market, offsetting stockpiling moves, rather than well-head output (the latter is Opec's preferred measure). 'Looking at the first half of the month, there has been a large rush of oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf region," Daniel Gerber, the head of Petro-Logistics, tells me. Data covering the first couple of weeks of June shows strong exports from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, two countries that typically cheat on their Opec+ production quotas [designed to keep prices up]. The risk here is more, not less. And then there's US shale output. In May, the American oil industry was on the ropes, with crude approaching $55 a barrel. At those prices, US oil production was set to start a gentle decline in the second half of the year and fall further in 2026. The recent conflict that drove crude to a peak of $78.40 a barrel handed US shale producers an unexpected opportunity to lock in forward prices, helping them to keep drilling higher than otherwise. Anecdotally, I hear from Wall Street oil bankers that their trading desks saw some of the largest shale hedging in years. Also Read: Counter-intuitive: Why Opec wants lower oil prices With shale oil, small price shifts matter a lot: The difference between booming production and declining output is measured in a fistful of dollars, perhaps as little as $10 to $20 a barrel. At $50, many companies would be staring at financial calamity and production would be in free-fall; $55 is survivable; $60 isn't great, but money still flows and output holds; at $65, everyone is back to more drilling; and at $70 and above, the industry is printing money and output is soaring. In the oil market, history is a very good guide. Look at what happened after the first Gulf War in 1990-1991, or the second one in 2003. Amid the carnage, oil kept flowing—often in greater quantities. When those conflicts ended, these flows increased further. The Iran-Israel conflict isn't quite over yet. The ceasefire is, at best, tentative. And other supply disruptions may change the outlook. But, right now the world has more oil than it needs. ©Bloomberg The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities.
