Latest news with #Opec+
The Star
7 hours ago
- Business
- The Star
Oil steadies on potential Opec+ August output hike
Brent crude futures settled at US$67.77 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1%. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at US$65.52 a barrel. HOUSTON: Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday, recovering from a midday drop into negative territory following a report that Opec+ was planning to hike production in August, but tumbled about 12% in the week in their biggest drop since March 2023. Brent crude futures settled at US$67.77 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1%. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at US$65.52 a barrel. Billed as RM9.73 for the 1st month then RM13.90 thereafters. RM12.33/month RM8.63/month Billed as RM103.60 for the 1st year then RM148 thereafters. Free Trial For new subscribers only
Business Times
8 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Oil steadies after report of planned Opec+ August output hike
[HOUSTON] Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday (Jun 27), recovering from a midday drop into negative territory following a report that Opec+ was planning to hike production in August, but tumbled about 12 per cent in the week in their biggest drop since March 2023. Brent crude futures settled at US$67.77 a barrel, up four cents or 0.1 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 28 cents or 0.4 per cent at US$65.52 a barrel. Four delegates from Opec+, which includes allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar-size output increase already planned for July. 'The report about an Opec increase came out and prices cratered,' said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Futures Group, about the midday slide. Crude prices were already headed for a 12 per cent decline for the week following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on Jun 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above US$80 a barrel before slumping to US$67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market,' said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. Flynn said expectations of higher demand in the coming months gave crude a boost earlier on Friday. 'We're getting a demand premium on oil,' Flynn said. Prices had also been supported earlier in Friday's session by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst. US government data on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, with refining activity and demand rising. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week. Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the Israel-Iran conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said. China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from Jun 1 to 20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data. The US oil and natural gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell for a fourth straight month to its lowest since October 2021, Baker Hughes said. The number of oil rigs fell by six to 432 this week, also the lowest level since October 2021. REUTERS
The Herald Scotland
3 days ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Crude price volatile as Middle East developments rock market
The fall reflects relief that Iran appears to have decided against making an attempt to cut off exports of crude from Gulf states in response to the actions of the US and Israel. Traders feared that Iran would try to block the Strait of Hormuz through which around 20% of global production is shipped, including output from Iran. Ashley Kelty, oil and gas analyst at Panmure Liberum investment bank, noted the market took Iran's decision to fire rockets at a US base in Qatar instead as a face-saving move that was intended to de-escalate the situation. 'There was around a $10 per barrel Middle East risk premium over the last week that has been slashed,' said Mr Kelty. He noted that China may have pressed Iran to show restraint. China has provided a key market for sales of Iranian crude, which are subject to extensive sanctions. READ MORE: Israeli-owned firm takes control of UK's biggest gas field However, Mr Kelty noted traders' fears that the ceasefire could fall apart. Israel and Iran accused each other yesterday of breaching it. 'The chances of a long-term deal still look pretty remote,' said Mr Kelty. 'The market is waiting to see if the ceasefire holds and what terms each side will agree to.' Mr Kelty cautioned: 'The chances of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked are greatly reduced but they have not gone away.' He noted that the impact of renewed hostilities could be offset by the fact that leading producers such as Saudi Arabia have agreed to ease curbs on production that were imposed to support prices. 'On fundamentals we are still looking at oversupply this year,' said Mr Kelty. Against that backdrop, a key factor will be the scale of production increases that members of the Opec + group maintain. READ MORE: SNP Government oil hypocrisy shocking amid Scottish jobs cull A fall in oil prices could boost the global economy and fuel demand. But Saudi Arabia requires a $90/bbl price to balance its budget. If oil prices drop below $50/bbl US producers would cut production. Mr Kelty thinks supply and demand will come back into balance next year. Brent is likely to sell for between $60/bbl and $70/bbl this year. Alan Gelder, SVP refining, chemicals and oil markets at the Wood Mackenzie energy consultancy said the Brent crude price could increase by $5/bbl to $10/bbl if hostilities between Israel and Iran resumed. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a more significant increase in prices but the effect would likely prove short-lived. The US and its allies would probably intervene to clear the Strait. Mr Gelder noted the possibility that demand for crude could fall after US president Donald Trump decides whether to impose the tariffs he put on hold for 90 days after the publication of his plans for them in April. The pause is due to end on July 8. Mr Trump's proposals sparked concern around the world. READ MORE: North Sea drilling curb plans look mad amid Trump trade threats Mukhesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets oil at the Rystad Energy consultancy noted the possibility that oil prices could range from the low $60s per barrel towards the mid $70s. 'A correction in supply is likely to be the main theme until demand recovery takes a turn for the better,' he said. However, Mr Sahdev cautioned: 'Ceasefire agreements need to be robust and provide a clear signal to market participants for trading to return to previous levels. 'For now, signals remain uncertain, and geopolitical risks persist, keeping volatility high, even as some progress towards peace is made.' Brent crude sold for around $65/bbl early this month before Israel launched attacks on Iran on June 13. On the outlook for stock markets, Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at the IG trading platform, said: 'The pause in the fighting [between Israel and Iran] removes a key worry for investors and puts a sustained rally in equities back on the table. 'There are still hurdles to navigate, most notably the 8 July deadline for trade deals, but for the moment the market thinks that there will be some kind of fresh extension.'
Daily Maverick
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
How the Middle East war and Trump's Israel-Iran ‘ceasefire' caused crude oil chaos
In a world used to chaos at the pump whenever missiles fly in the Middle East, the current conflict offered a plot twist worthy of a geopolitical thriller: war broke out, oil prices first soared and then crude prices crashed. The conflict escalated rapidly, with Israel launching 'Operation Rising Lion' to strike Iranian nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with missile barrages. Then the US joined the fray, bombing major Iranian facilities and setting the world on edge. Traders panicked. Prices surged. Brent crude spiked to over $80 a barrel. The fear? That Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a fifth of global petroleum. But behind the scenes, a different drama was unfolding. According to satellite imagery and backchannel chatter, the US quietly evacuated its airbase in Qatar before Iran launched a retaliatory missile attack – one that conveniently caused zero casualties and was telegraphed 12 hours ahead of time. The conflict's crescendo, it turns out, was more theatre than war. And just like that, the markets yawned and went about their business. When fear vanishes, fundamentals return Without the risk of a Hormuz shutdown, traders refocused on the oil market's unsexy reality: Opec+ has spare capacity, up to 4 million barrels per day sitting on standby; US shale is booming and approaching 21 million barrels daily in total liquids production; Inventories are rising and the US saw a surprise 4.2 million barrel build mid-conflict; and Demand is limp because China's refinery output is down, and global indicators point to economic slowdown. The net effect? Once the speculative fear bubble burst, there was nothing holding prices up. In fact, Brent and WTI both settled below their pre-conflict levels. The market not only priced out the risk, it remembered how oversupplied and under-demanded the landscape really is. Fragile ceasefire, fragile peace Despite the ceasefire, Iran and Israel couldn't even agree whether it was a ceasefire. Within hours, more missiles flew. Israel blamed Iran. Iran denied. The truth didn't matter; the damage to credibility was done. Still, markets didn't panic. They'd seen this movie before. Short-term volatility, yes. Full-scale war? Not yet. As one trader told Bloomberg: 'We've had 25 Strait of Hormuz scares in the last decade. None of them closed the tap.' What this means for you If you're a South African motorist anxiously watching global headlines, here's the deal: The price of crude oil is just one factor in our monthly fuel price now, the drop in international oil prices could ease pressure on future fuel hikes. However, the rand is the wild the rand strengthens and oil stays subdued, we might see a fuel decrease in the next pricing window. But if the rand weakens – or if the war in the Middle East flares up – those savings could be wiped out. Lessons from the paradox The oil market's response to the war in the Middle East teaches us that modern trading is less about what happens and more about what is believed to be possible. The threat of catastrophe inflates prices. If there's no escalation, we return to normal. So, when war broke out in the world's most volatile oil region, and oil fell, it wasn't madness. It was math. The real madness may be what happens next. DM
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Business Standard
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Russia increases seaborne fuel oil exports to India, Turkey in May
Oil prices fell to four-year lows as an Opec+ decision to expedite its output hikes stoked fears about rising global supply at a time when the demand outlook is uncertain Reuters MOSCOW Russia increased seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gasoil exports to India and Turkey in May as falling oil product prices attracted buyers, while the hot summer season required more fuel for energy production, trade and shipping data showed. Oil prices fell to four-year lows as an Opec+ decision to expedite its output hikes stoked fears about rising global supply at a time when the demand outlook is uncertain. Since the European Union's full embargo on Russian oil products went into effect in February 2023, Asian countries have become the main destination for Russia's fuel oil and VGO supplies. According to LSEG data, dirty oil products loadings from Russian ports to India almost doubled last month from April to 0.6 million metric tons. India imports straight-run fuel oil and VGO from Russia as a cheaper alternative to Urals crude oil in its refinery feedstock pool. Meanwhile, India's Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy imported 37% and 3% less Russian oil last month, respectively, than in April. Russia's seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gasoil exports to Turkey rose 75% month-on-month in May to 0.43 million tons, shipping data shows. Saudi Arabia was the main importer of Russian seaborne fuel oil last month, though loadings fell 17% from April to 0.7 million tons. The country has turned to importing more discounted Russian fuel oil for summer since 2023 as its prices declined following an EU embargo on the import of oil products from Russia. Singapore and China were also among the other top destinations for Russian fuel oil and VGO export supplies in May, according to LSEG data. Meanwhile, Russia's fuel oil supplies to Asia via the African Cape of Good Hope fell in May to around 85,000 tons, the lowest level since the start of the year. Traders have been diverting Russian oil products cargoes around Africa since December 2023 to avoid the Red Sea due to a heightened risk of attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group. The escalation of military strikes between Iran and Israel could also force shipowners to avoid the Red Sea routes on their way to Asian countries. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
