Latest news with #PBO
Ottawa Citizen
6 days ago
- Business
- Ottawa Citizen
Cap or cuts? Public servants have 40,000 reasons to worry
Public Service Confidential is a workplace advice column for federal public servants. The following question has been edited for clarity and length. Article content Article content The prime minister said he will only cap the size of the public service. The Parliamentary Budget Officer says significant cuts will be needed to achieve the Liberals' spending promises. Article content Article content So which one is it? What should we expect? Article content Inquiring and concerned minds want to know. Article content That is probably the most stressful question on the minds of public servants this summer, particularly those who are early to mid-career. Article content Let me start by saying that no one knows for sure how deep the new prime minister and his government will go with cuts to the public service in their efforts to reconcile their election promises and new spending commitments with the current tax and revenue base. Article content While they will undoubtedly have a rough idea, even the prime minister and his closest advisors likely do not have final numbers yet as the details are probably still being sorted as part of preparations for the fall budget. Article content Article content Given this, the best I can do is provide a sense of what to expect, recognizing that I, like the PBO, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, and a host of political pundits, will have to make some planning assumptions and speculate a little to answer your question. Article content Article content Here is what we know so far. Article content In their election platform, the Liberals stated that, 'A Mark Carney led government will launch a comprehensive review of government spending … [and] are committed to capping, not cutting, public service employment'. Article content It isn't clear what level the government will set its 'cap.' But what is clear is that the government's intent is to reallocate a significant amount of spending towards new priorities. Article content For those employees whose jobs will be impacted by savings measures, it will feel like a cut, regardless of how the government spins its overall 'reallocation' plan, even within the idea of a 'cap.' Article content We also know that the government's savings target is at least $28 billion. This is a cumulative number over several years. The number that matters most in the government's election platform is the $13-billion target in ongoing savings starting fiscal year 2028-29. Article content 'Ongoing' in this context means a permanent reduction in spending in current programs. This was an electoral commitment made before more recent additional spending announcements, including in defence. Article content The report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives stated that hitting these savings targets will require a 24 per cent cut to the public service. I believe this number is overstated because it is derived from a spending base of $89 billion and relies heavily on salary savings only. Article content A more accurate spending base is likely annual direct program spending, which is roughly $230-$240 billion, and includes both personnel expenditures (think salary dollars) and operating expenditures (think consultant dollars). Given this, the starting point base target of $13 billion more likely represents a 6 to 7 per cent cut in spending on current programs. Article content Article content There are currently roughly 360,000 to 370,000 federal public servants. So, a cut in program spending in the realm of 6 to 7 per cent would translate into a reduction of approximately 22,000 to 26,000 FTEs (full-time equivalents). Given new spending commitments, this is likely the minimum. Recent news reports suggest the target is 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent and higher in 2028-2029. A 10 per cent target translates closer to 40,000 FTEs or significantly more, depending on the portion of savings derived from salary. Article content I also say FTEs (not jobs) on purpose. An FTE does not represent a job cut one for one. A funded FTE can be a vacancy, where the salary budget for the FTE gets reduced, with no direct job impact on an employee. Article content Figuring out the size of the reductions, however, is only the first and easiest step. More challenging and important to the people and employees impacted by savings measures will be how the cuts get managed, and the speed with which savings must be realized. Article content Article content Once final decisions are made, public service executives and managers will have the daunting task of realizing identified savings. The rolling three-year average attrition rate in the federal government is roughly 4 per cent or 10,000-12,000 employees per year. So, even at 40,000 FTEs, a significant portion of the desired FTE savings can likely come from not staffing current vacancies and using attrition. Article content Reductions that can't be absorbed will likely result in the use of workforce adjustment to help employees find another job within growing sectors of the government or make the transition out of the public service altogether. Article content I was the lead director general for implementing the Deficit Reduction Action Plan targets at the CBSA from 2012 to 2014, under the government of then-prime minister Stephen Harper. We had to cut more than 1,000 FTEs. Article content We harvested salary savings from funded vacancies, used voluntary departures through early retirement, internally deployed staff from cut positions to vacancies, found offsets from new spending to deploy cut personnel to new jobs (where skill sets fit), and employed targeted use of workforce adjustment. In the end, the CBSA managed to realize its savings from 2012 to 2014 with fewer than 100 employees who lost their jobs involuntarily. Article content I think it's reasonable for you and many public servants to be concerned about the next federal budget and coming FTE cuts. Few people know for certain how deep the cut side of the ledger will be (as opposed to the reinvestment side of new spending under a new 'cap'). In any scenario, I would be doing you an injustice to say 'don't worry' because the net impact will be hard on people. Article content I will, however, leave you with the following advice. The real issues that will come into play are not about the numbers – the cuts will be about real people with real lives. Try to be kind, take care of yourself and colleagues to the extent you can, and have empathy with the people impacted, particularly the employees who may have to live through workforce adjustment and job loss, but also the managers and executives who must implement the savings measures. Article content I can honestly say from personal experience that it will be hard on everyone. But, as the public service has proven in the past, it will find a way to rise to the challenge. Article content
National Observer
11-07-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Canada Infrastructure Bank will fall short of 2028 investment target: PBO
Parliament's fiscal watchdog is projecting that the Canada Infrastructure Bank will fall more than $20 billion short of its investment targets for the coming years. In a new report released Thursday, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer said the infrastructure bank is on track to disburse $14.9 billion by 2027-28 — well below its $35-billion goal. That sum is also $1 billion lower than earlier PBO projections from 2021. The bank was launched in 2017 and invests alongside private and public sector partners to help get green energy and other infrastructure projects off the ground in Canada. The infrastructure bank also has sector-specific investment goals for five priority areas — broadband, public transit, clean power, green infrastructure, and trade and transportation — ranging between $3 billion and $10 billion each. But the PBO said the Crown corporation is not on track to meet any of those targets either. Expanding the funding horizon out to 2029-30, the PBO's projections see only the public transit sector meeting its $5-billion investment goal. The report said the infrastructure bank already has hit its goal of investing $1 billion in Indigenous-led projects. In a media statement Thursday, the Conservative party said the CIB has been a "failure." The party pointed to the PBO's conclusion that, since its inception, two-thirds of the CIB's co-investments have come from public sector partners, rather than private industry. The PBO noted that, since 2022-23, that ratio has grown closer to an even split between public and private funding sources. The Conservatives said the Liberals need to "get the government out of the way so builders can build again" and promised that a Conservative government would encourage investment by cutting taxes and red tape. The Canadian Press reached out to Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson's office for comment but has not received a response. In the Canada Infrastructure Bank's market update for the first quarter of this fiscal year, it said its investments to date are already worth $16.8 billion. Katarina Michalyshyn, the author of the PBO report, said in an email Thursday that CIB investment estimate tracks financial closes — the point at which deals are struck but the money has yet to flow. The PBO's report, on the other hand, focuses more on disbursements, or the point when funding has actually been transferred for the project. The PBO expects disbursements by 2027-28 to come in two per cent lower — or $350 million less — than the CIB's most recent projections. Based on the pace of investments to date, the fiscal watchdog sees the infrastructure bank hitting its disbursement goal of $35 billion by 2034-35 — seven years after its deadline. The PBO says that, if it were using financial closes as the benchmark, it would predict the bank will hit that goal by 2029-30. A spokesperson for the CIB said in a media statement that the infrastructure bank has "a lot to be proud of" so far. The CIB has now invested in 100 projects over its eight years in operation, with seven completed. The spokesperson noted that projects typically take three to five years of funding before completion, which is why the CIB's financial close figures will lag behind disbursements. Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada said in an emailed statement that the bank "received statutory funding of $35 billion to increase investment in infrastructure in Canada, with no set timeline to commit these funds." It said the bank "issues capital to project owners progressively, according to project milestones determined in its contracts with recipients, and as such does not have set disbursement timelines." The government's long-term infrastructure plan states the bank is "responsible for delivering $35 billion on a cash basis over 11 years." This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 10, 2025.
Edmonton Journal
11-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Canada Infrastructure Bank on track to be $20 billion short of 2028 investment target: PBO
Canada Infrastructure Bank President and CEO Ehren Cory. Photo by House of Commons OTTAWA — Parliament's fiscal watchdog is projecting that the Canada Infrastructure Bank will fall more than $20 billion short of its investment targets for the coming years. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors In a new report released Thursday, the Parliamentary Budget Office said the infrastructure bank is on track to disburse $14.9 billion by 2027-28 — well below its $35-billion goal. That sum is also $1 billion lower than earlier PBO projections from 2021. The bank was launched in 2017 and invests alongside private and public sector partners to help get green energy and other infrastructure projects off the ground in Canada. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again The infrastructure bank also has sector-specific investment goals for five priority areas — broadband, public transit, clean power, green infrastructure, and trade and transportation — ranging between $3 billion and $10 billion each. But the PBO said the Crown corporation is not on track to meet any of those targets either. Expanding the funding horizon out to 2029-30, the PBO's projections see only the public transit sector meeting its $5-billion investment goal. The report said the infrastructure bank already has hit its goal of investing $1 billion in Indigenous-led projects. In a media statement Thursday, the Conservative party said the CIB has been a 'failure.' The party pointed to the PBO's conclusion that, since its inception, two-thirds of the CIB's co-investments have come from public sector partners, rather than private industry. The PBO noted that, since 2022-23, that ratio has grown closer to an even split between public and private funding sources. The Conservatives said the Liberals need to 'get the government out of the way so builders can build again' and promised that a Conservative government would encourage investment by cutting taxes and red tape. The Canadian Press reached out to Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson's office for comment but has not received a response. In the Canada Infrastructure Bank's market update for the first quarter of this fiscal year, it said its investments to date are already worth $16.8 billion. Katarina Michalyshyn, the author of the PBO report, said in an email Thursday that CIB investment estimate tracks financial closes — the point at which deals are struck but the money has yet to flow.
National Post
11-07-2025
- Business
- National Post
Canada Infrastructure Bank on track to be $20 billion short of 2028 investment target: PBO
Article content The PBO expects disbursements by 2027-28 to come in two per cent lower — or $350 million less — than the CIB's most recent projections. Article content Based on the pace of investments to date, the fiscal watchdog sees the infrastructure bank hitting its disbursement goal of $35 billion by 2034-35 — seven years after its deadline. Article content The PBO says that, if it were using financial closes as the benchmark, it would predict the bank will hit that goal by 2029-30. Article content A spokesperson for the CIB said in a media statement that the infrastructure bank has 'a lot to be proud of' so far. The CIB has now invested in 100 projects over its eight years in operation, with seven completed. Article content The spokesperson noted that projects typically take three to five years of funding before completion, which is why the CIB's financial close figures will lag behind disbursements. Article content Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada said in an emailed statement that the bank 'received statutory funding of $35 billion to increase investment in infrastructure in Canada, with no set timeline to commit these funds.' Article content It said the bank 'issues capital to project owners progressively, according to project milestones determined in its contracts with recipients, and as such does not have set disbursement timelines.' Article content The government's long-term infrastructure plan states the bank is 'responsible for delivering $35 billion on a cash basis over 11 years.'
Vancouver Sun
11-07-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Canada Infrastructure Bank on track to be $20 billion short of 2028 investment target: PBO
OTTAWA — Parliament's fiscal watchdog is projecting that the Canada Infrastructure Bank will fall more than $20 billion short of its investment targets for the coming years. In a new report released Thursday, the Parliamentary Budget Office said the infrastructure bank is on track to disburse $14.9 billion by 2027-28 — well below its $35-billion goal. That sum is also $1 billion lower than earlier PBO projections from 2021. The bank was launched in 2017 and invests alongside private and public sector partners to help get green energy and other infrastructure projects off the ground in Canada. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The infrastructure bank also has sector-specific investment goals for five priority areas — broadband, public transit, clean power, green infrastructure, and trade and transportation — ranging between $3 billion and $10 billion each. But the PBO said the Crown corporation is not on track to meet any of those targets either. Expanding the funding horizon out to 2029-30, the PBO's projections see only the public transit sector meeting its $5-billion investment goal. The report said the infrastructure bank already has hit its goal of investing $1 billion in Indigenous-led projects. In a media statement Thursday, the Conservative party said the CIB has been a 'failure.' The party pointed to the PBO's conclusion that, since its inception, two-thirds of the CIB's co-investments have come from public sector partners, rather than private industry. The PBO noted that, since 2022-23, that ratio has grown closer to an even split between public and private funding sources. The Conservatives said the Liberals need to 'get the government out of the way so builders can build again' and promised that a Conservative government would encourage investment by cutting taxes and red tape. The Canadian Press reached out to Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson's office for comment but has not received a response. In the Canada Infrastructure Bank's market update for the first quarter of this fiscal year, it said its investments to date are already worth $16.8 billion. Katarina Michalyshyn, the author of the PBO report, said in an email Thursday that CIB investment estimate tracks financial closes — the point at which deals are struck but the money has yet to flow. The PBO's report, on the other hand, focuses more on disbursements, or the point when funding has actually been transferred for the project. The PBO expects disbursements by 2027-28 to come in two per cent lower — or $350 million less — than the CIB's most recent projections. Based on the pace of investments to date, the fiscal watchdog sees the infrastructure bank hitting its disbursement goal of $35 billion by 2034-35 — seven years after its deadline. The PBO says that, if it were using financial closes as the benchmark, it would predict the bank will hit that goal by 2029-30. A spokesperson for the CIB said in a media statement that the infrastructure bank has 'a lot to be proud of' so far. The CIB has now invested in 100 projects over its eight years in operation, with seven completed. The spokesperson noted that projects typically take three to five years of funding before completion, which is why the CIB's financial close figures will lag behind disbursements. Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada said in an emailed statement that the bank 'received statutory funding of $35 billion to increase investment in infrastructure in Canada, with no set timeline to commit these funds.' It said the bank 'issues capital to project owners progressively, according to project milestones determined in its contracts with recipients, and as such does not have set disbursement timelines.' The government's long-term infrastructure plan states the bank is 'responsible for delivering $35 billion on a cash basis over 11 years.' Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
