Latest news with #PMIs
Fibre2Fashion
a day ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Chinas' manufacturing PMI inches towards recovery in June: NBS
China's manufacturing sector showed continued signs of recovery in June, with the purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising for the second month in a row to 49.7, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This followed readings of 49.5 in May and 49 in April, reflecting gradual improvement across industries. Out of the 21 sectors surveyed, 11 reported expansions in June—an increase from just 7 in the previous month. Notably, equipment, high-tech, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in positive territory for the second consecutive month, with PMIs at 51.4, 50.9, and 50.4, respectively. The non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, a 0.2-point increase from May. The general PMI rose from 50.4 to 50.7. The upward movement across all three key indices points to a steady recovery trend, Chinese media reports said quoting NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe. China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in June, marking a second consecutive monthly increase, signalling gradual recovery, as per NBS. Of 21 sectors, 11 showed growth, with equipment, high-tech, and consumer goods PMIs staying above 50. The non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5, and the general PMI rose to 50.7. The consistent rise across indices reflects a steady improvement in economic activity. A PMI above 50 denotes growth, while a figure below indicates contraction. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
RTÉ News
2 days ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
China's weak factory activity maintains pressure for more stimulus as tariff risks weigh
China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third month in a row in June, though at a slower pace, as increases in new orders, purchasing volumes and supplier delivery times signalled that policy support rolled out since late last year is taking effect. But business sentiment remains subdued, today's survey showed, with employment, factory gate prices and new export orders still languishing, and keeping alive calls for even more stimulus as authorities deal with US President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught and chronic weakness in the property sector. The National Bureau of Statistics purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll but remaining below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. "Two months of successive improvement, that's a decent reading given June was the first full month without Trump's prohibitive 100%-plus tariffs," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "There is still evidence of frontloading in trade, but the tariffs are lower now and manufacturers are preparing to ship holiday season goods," he added. The new export orders sub-index remained in contraction for a 14th month in a row in June, inching up to 47.7 from 47.5 in May, while employment diverged from other indicators by deteriorating further. However, new domestic orders rose to 50.2 from 49.8, and purchasing volumes jumped from 47.6 to 50.2 - offering policymakers some hope that domestic demand may be starting to recover. Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said the PMIs suggested the world's second-largest economy had regained some momentum over the past month, but warned tensions with the West would continue to squeeze its exports and there were still signs of deflationary pressures. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, grew to 50.5 from 50.3. Activity in the food and beverages, travel, hospitality and logistics sectors fell this month, NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement. However, this drag was offset by a pickup in the construction PMI, which rose to a 3-month high of 52.8, Capital Economics' Huang said. "Fiscal support looks to have continued to support infrastructure spending," Huang added, but cautioned that "a fading fiscal tailwind is likely to slow activity in the second half of the year." Uncertainty also lingers among factory owners, as the business outlook index - which normally moves in line with the headline PMI - dropped in June and suggested producers were waiting on a more durable trade deal to a fragile framework agreed between Beijing and Washington earlier this month. That puts pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures, as the government cannot afford for China's vast manufacturing sector to stagnate or shrink, if its ambitious 2025 growth target of "around 5%" is to be met. Profits at China's industrial firms swung sharply back into decline in May, which officials attributed to weak demand and falling industrial product prices. Policymakers are confident they can push ahead with reforms launched late last year to transition China's economy from a manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one, Premier Li Qiang told delegates at World Economic Forum and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank meetings last week. Such a shift in the engines of growth, which economists say is crucial to securing China's future, could be progressed while maintaining strong growth, Li said. But economists say the transition could take years, and that reform typically comes at the cost of a more subdued economy in the short term. "Exports are expected to decelerate in the second half of the year, and domestic deflationary pressures will intensify," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, who expects more stimulus in coming months. "Household consumption cannot be a real short-term driver, but fiscal spending in things like infrastructure can deliver the kind of growth required to hit this year's target," he added.
Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Asia manufacturing slumps anew even as some data show resilience
[JAKARTA] The slowdown in Asia's manufacturing activity deepened further in June, a warning sign for the region's growth prospects as tariffs on shipments to the US are poised to increase next week. Export-reliant economies including Taiwan and Vietnam saw their purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) deteriorate further, with factories reporting a continued decline in new orders, output and staffing as the trade war saps demand. Taiwan's PMI slipped to 47.2 in June from 48.6 in May, according to surveys published on Tuesday (Jul 1) by S&P Global. New business and new export sales declined at sharper rates, 'with companies frequently commenting on reduced customer demand at home and overseas amid tariff concerns and client hesitancy', said S&P Global Market Intelligence's Annabel Fiddes. Even for manufacturing heavyweight South Korea, which saw its PMI reading climb to 48.7 in June from May's 47.7, the gauge was still well below the 50 threshold that separates expansion and contraction. Firms saw 'pockets of improvement' in the domestic market, but international demand remained sluggish, S&P said. Tuesday's PMI figures came as other data sets reflected resilience. In South Korea, for example, June exports rebounded on the back of record sales of semiconductors, while the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed that sentiment among large manufacturers unexpectedly improved a tad. Even in China, a private gauge of manufacturing bounded back, with the PMI at 50.4, as both supply and demand recovered, according to Caixin and S&P. Still, the Korean exports figures were partly helped by front-loading activity before US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs rise, while the Caixin PMI stood in contrast to the official manufacturing PMI released on Monday that came in at 49.7. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Other Asian nations reporting PMIs remaining firmly in contraction territory included Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, which posted the region's worst PMI at 46.9 in June. The latest data cloud the prospects for business activity in Asia, the world's factory floor, as a three-month grace period on Trump reciprocal tariffs is set to end on Jul 9. Washington has pledged to announce more agreements after the Jul 4 holiday that would add to broad frameworks secured with China and the UK. Uncertainty is rife, with Trump targeting Japan in his latest round of brinkmanship on Monday. He threatened to impose fresh tariffs, citing the nation's unwillingness to accept US rice exports. Across-the-board duties on Japan goods imported to the US will rise to 24 per cent on Jul 9, barring a deal. Higher tariffs will cloud the outlook for Japan, which just saw manufacturing activity stabilise in June. Its PMI climbed to 50.1, its highest reading since May 2024 and nudging over to expansion territory as factories aired confidence for the year ahead. While Japan raised staffing and output in June, 'we will need to see a renewed and sustained improvement in customer demand, which remains dampened by ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariffs, in order to see a sustained recovery in production', Fiddes said. BLOOMBERG
Irish Examiner
2 days ago
- Business
- Irish Examiner
David McNamara: Divergence grows between Fed and markets on rate expectation
The recent moves in US rates and the dollar highlight a growing divergence between the Fed and markets, amid signs of division on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). With the Fed's latest 'dot-plot' indicating very little change in the median rate expectations of members compared to the March forecasts, it appeared the Fed was content to sit on the sidelines until the autumn at least. However, comments from prominent Governors (Waller, Bowman) calling for a rate cut as soon as July suggest upcoming FOMC meetings may be more fraught affairs. Added to the uncertainty, media reports suggest US President Donald Trump may select a new Fed chairperson early, in an attempt to undermine the authority of Jay Powell as he winds down his term, which ends in May 2026. The aforementioned Waller is now a warm favourite on betting markets, with his newfound dovishness no doubt a boon to his candidacy with President Trump. Amidst the uncertainty, markets have moved materially ahead of the Fed's current dots, pricing in a Fed funds rate at 3.1% by end-2026, compared to an FOMC median projection of 3.6%, and US Treasury yields are 10-15bps lower on the week. Alongside a general easing in geopolitical risk, this has added further impetus in recent days to the dollar's ongoing depreciation. EUR/USD is now trading towards the midpoint of $1.17-1.18, raising questions of how far the greenback could fall. As we discussed recently, in terms of important levels to watch in the near term for EUR/USD, a sustained break above the recent $1.14-$1.16 range would imply further material downside for the dollar. The $1.20 mark would represent the next significant resistance, as the pair has not traded on a sustained basis above this threshold since 2014. Currency upsides While markets are focused on downside risks for the dollar, it is also worth noting the upsides. First, the Fed still retains a bias towards limited rate cuts, with seven members pricing in no cut at all in 2025 in the June FOMC projections. This cohort remains vigilant of the inflationary risks inherent in the potential US policy shifts on trade and taxation. Indeed, this week's flash US PMIs showed a notable uptick in input and selling prices to a three-year high in June, suggestive of inflationary pressures to come due to tariffs. Therefore, the move in rate futures may be overdone. Second, the dollar still benefits from its reserve status. The Eurozone has seen some inward capital flows in 2025, but the currency will struggle to erode the US dollar's crown as the reserve currency, given the paucity of safe assets beyond the German bund market. This TINA (there is no alternative) problem might yet provide a floor for the US dollar given the lack of safe-haven alternatives beyond US markets, even in the event of a reckless turn in US trade policy. However, attempts from President Trump to interfere more boldly in monetary policy could see markets explore more pressingly for an alternative to the dollar, which would pose significant downside risks for the US unit. David McNamara is Chief Economist with AIB Read More David McNamara: Central banks kick to touch amid uncertainty
Straits Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
China's weak factory activity maintains pressure for more stimulus as tariff risks weigh
Uncertainty lingers among factory owners, as they wait on a more durable trade deal with the US. PHOTO: AFP BEIJING - China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in June, though at a slower pace, as increases in new orders, purchasing volumes and supplier delivery times signalled that policy support rolled out since late 2024 is taking effect. But business sentiment remains subdued, the June 30 survey showed, with employment, factory gate prices and new export orders still languishing, and keeping alive calls for even more stimulus as authorities deal with US President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught and chronic weakness in the property sector. The National Bureau of Statistics purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll but remaining below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. 'Two months of successive improvement, that's a decent reading given June was the first full month without Trump's prohibitive 100 per cent-plus tariffs,' said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. 'There is still evidence of front-loading in trade, but the tariffs are lower now and manufacturers are preparing to ship holiday season goods,' he added. The new export orders sub-index remained in contraction for a 14th straight month in June, inching up to 47.7 from 47.5 in May, while employment diverged from other indicators by deteriorating further. However, new domestic orders rose to 50.2 from 49.8, and purchasing volumes jumped from 47.6 to 50.2 – offering policymakers some hope that domestic demand may be starting to recover. Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics, said the PMIs suggested the world's second-largest economy had regained some momentum over the past month, but warned tensions with the West would continue to squeeze its exports and there were still signs of deflationary pressures. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, grew to 50.5 from 50.3. Activity in the food and beverages, travel, hospitality and logistics sectors fell this month, NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement. However, this drag was offset by a pickup in the construction PMI, which rose to a 3-month high of 52.8, Capital Economics' Mr Huang said. 'Fiscal support looks to have continued to support infrastructure spending,' Mr Huang added, but cautioned that 'a fading fiscal tailwind is likely to slow activity in the second half of the year.' Uncertainty also lingers among factory owners, as the business outlook index - which normally moves in line with the headline PMI - dropped in June and suggested producers were waiting on a more durable trade deal to a fragile framework agreed between Beijing and Washington earlier this month. That puts pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures, as the government cannot afford for China's vast manufacturing sector to stagnate or shrink, if its ambitious 2025 growth target of 'around 5 per cent' is to be met. Policymakers are confident they can push ahead with reforms launched late in 2024 to transition China's economy from a manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one, Premier Li Qiang told delegates at World Economic Forum and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank meetings last week. Such a shift in the engines of growth, which economists say is crucial to securing China's future, could be progressed while maintaining strong growth, Premier Li said. But economists say the transition could take years, and that reform typically comes at the cost of a more subdued economy in the short term. 'Exports are expected to decelerate in the second half of the year, and domestic deflationary pressures will intensify,' said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, who expects more stimulus in coming months. 'Household consumption cannot be a real short-term driver, but fiscal spending in things like infrastructure can deliver the kind of growth required to hit this year's target.' REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
