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The Print
28-06-2025
- Politics
- The Print
Nilambur isn't Kerala. UDF must look beyond Muslim votes to win 2026 polls
It was PV Anvar's resignation that facilitated the by-election in the first place, even if he sought to extract his pound of flesh for extending his support to the UDF. Leaders within the Congress – such as Ramesh Chennithala and ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) – advocated Anvar's accommodation, with the by-poll becoming a bellwether ahead of the 2026 assembly election. On 23 June, the day of the Nilambur bypoll verdict, Satheesan watched the proceedings from the District Congress Committee (DCC) office in Ernakulam. As soon as the UDF ensured its victory, Congress leaders vied among themselves to shower praises on the LoP, led by MP Hibi Eden . It was a mark of appreciation for Satheesan, who didn't bow down to former Nilambur MLA PV Anvar's diktats and ensured a win despite the latter re-entering the fray. There is a new 'captain' in Kerala. After the Congress-led United Democratic Front wrested the Nilambur seat from the Left Democratic Front, the state media lavished praise on Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan for helming a crucial electoral win. Nevertheless, Satheesan stood his ground and took ownership of the decision to keep Anvar out. It was a marked departure from the consensual ways that have defined the Congress in recent times. The consensual approach was necessitated on account of the party's weakening organisational apparatus, leaving it at the mercy of various stakeholders and its supporters frustrated. The UDF's morale-boosting win and the credit to Satheesan prompted former LoP Ramesh Chennithala to come out publicly, stating how nobody hailed him as 'captain' when he led the UDF to bypoll victories in the past. Power struggles in the Congress aside, the UDF seems to be taking the wrong lessons from the bypoll by extrapolating it to 2026. On the contrary, the ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is leveraging even the loss to build its narrative for the upcoming assembly election. Left gambit for 2026 The Left's route to a solitary seat in successive Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2024 was marked by a shift in its Hindu vote base to the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The Left has traditionally been the 'Hindu party' in Kerala, whereas the UDF has been anchored by minority communities. Unlike the 2019 elections—held in the wake of the BJP-fuelled Sabarimala agitation—the 2024 loss made the switching of Hindu voters a perpetual phenomenon. If the CPI-M initially concentrated on carving out sections of UDF's minority votes to counter the loss of its Hindu base, the 2024 loss demonstrated the urgency to hold on to its Ezhava vote bank. This prompted the Left to double down on its strategy of portraying the UDF as a front backed by communal elements such as Jamaat-e-Islami. CPI-M deployed the same tactic in last year's Palakkad and Wayanad bypolls—alleging that the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and Jamaat were responsible for UDF's victory. After the setback in Nilambur, CPI-M state secretary MV Govindan resorted to the same game plan, almost like a reflex action. The potency of this strategy has swelled on account of the polarisation between the Muslim and Christian communities in Kerala lately. The CPI-M, perhaps, believes that it can attract additional Christian votes in the bargain, along with achieving its primary goal of preventing the further erosion of its Hindu vote base. Also read: Kerala Congress is now left of Left. And confused UDF's Muslim consolidation After the Nilambur bypoll, a chuffed UDF is counting on Muslim consolidation to ensure its win in 2026. Brushing aside criticism on courting the Jamaat-e-Islami, the Congress is unwittingly aiding the Left propaganda to paint the UDF as a formation backed by an Islamist fringe. Such a portrayal can only negatively affect the prospects of the UDF in central and south Kerala—leading to massive counter-polarisation. In any case, unlike in Lok Sabha polls, Kerala Muslims do not vote en bloc for any coalition in an assembly election. The BJP has also become stronger today, leading to a split in anti-incumbency votes. What the UDF needs to do is to find the communal balance it was known to uphold historically, rather than putting all its eggs in one basket. The Congress should also figure out why the 'Muslim front' label continues to stick to the UDF—allowing the Left and the BJP to harness it successfully. Even in 2021, the LDF had floated the narrative of the tail wagging the dog; of the IUML driving the UDF's agenda. This was after IUML's PK Kunhalikutty chose to contest the assembly poll despite being a sitting Lok Sabha MP, eyeing the post of deputy chief minister. This narrative affected the UDF's prospects badly, with the Church-backed Kerala Congress (Mani) switching to the Left on the eve of that election and upsetting a delicate communal balance. Also read: How VD Satheesan's leadership won Congress Nilambur, and silenced his detractors Ebrahim Kunju's speech On closer analysis, it can be evaluated that the communal balance that anchored the UDF was lost further back; to be precise, in 2012. It started with the IUML's ill-thought-out strategy to leverage its numbers and the UDF's wafer-thin majority in order to demand a fifth Cabinet berth after the 2011 assembly election. Aryadan Muhammed, then a minister in Oommen Chandy's council of ministers, had publicly forewarned the Congress of the ramifications of being browbeaten into it. Chandy ill-advisedly acceded to IUML's demand to keep it in good humour. The move created a furore within the Congress. And it got worse when a sound bite of IUML minister VK Ebrahim Kunju played on TV news bulletins six months later. On 6 October 2012, at a party convention in Palakkad, Ebrahim Kunju had stated: 'There is a narrative that the IUML is ruling Kerala, that the party is controlling the UDF, and that is a fact'. And that opened a Pandora's box. Vellappally Natesan and Sukumaran Nair—general secretaries of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam and Nair Service Society (NSS), respectively—came out publicly against it, calling for Hindu unity and accusing the Chandy government of being a pro-minority dispensation. Nair also contributed to the famous 'Ku-Ku-Ku' analogy of the state being ruled by three Ks: Kunjoonju (Chandy), Kunjumani (KM Mani), and Kunhalikkutty. This was chorused by Natesan and later invoked by the Left ahead of the election to portray the UDF as a 'minority front'. Also read: Where does Shashi Tharoor fit in Kerala Congress? His timing is always off Jamaat dalliance will backfire With the deaths of Oommen Chandy and KM Mani, and the latter's party joining the LDF subsequently, the 'minority front' label in 2016 came to be replaced with 'Muslim front' in 2021. Congress has been undertaking efforts to rid the UDF of this charge, recently appointing Sunny Joseph as the party's state chief, and foregrounding Nair faces as chief ministerial candidates. However, by taking Jamaat-e-Islami's support in Nilambur, the UDF has set itself back in this endeavour irredeemably. The UDF may have managed to override the charge of Jamaat dalliance in Nilambur—by invoking the Abdul Nasar Madany-led People Democratic Party (PDP)'s support to the CPI-M, and the Jamaat's history of backing the Left for three decades. However, this strategy cannot be replicated in the forthcoming local body polls or the assembly election for several reasons. First, the Left will keep chipping away at the Congress for being soft on the Islamist fringe, deploying the likes of Vellappally Natesan and Kanthapuram AP Aboobacker Musliyar to attack the UDF from both flanks. The CPI-M's brilliance at setting narratives and getting the party machinery and the Left ecosystem to relay it to the grassroots cannot be matched by the Congress. Second, unlike the AP Sunnis led by Musliyar, who back the Left for organisational growth and material benefits, the Jamaat-e-Islami's support for the UDF is solely to further its nefarious agendas. Third, regardless of the Jamaat's history of backing the Left, Malayalis today judge it through the prism of MediaOne—the news channel promoted by Jamaat—and Out of Focus, its editorial show with a phenomenal reach. Also read: Pinarayi Vijayan's double-speak on women's security needs to be called out Jamaat's nefarious agendas Out of Focus doesn't just engage in propaganda for Islamist insurgency movements across the world; the show even takes up cudgels on behalf of SDPI or cleric-politician Abdul Nasar Ma'dani in Kerala. A Jamaat member told me on condition of anonymity that 'This isn't surprising. It is a Maududian (referring to Jamaat-e-Islami founder Syed Abul A'la Maududi) concept.' Essentially, what Out of Focus has set out to accomplish is to make liberal Kerala Muslims militant in character, in line with the Jamaat's core principles. The show has the potential to drive a wedge among Kerala's different communities. And there is every chance that a moderate Muslim watching it regularly would end up becoming a hardliner without even registering it. Ironically, the Jamaat seems to be using the IUML—which it has routinely targeted for its moderate positions—as a vehicle to drive its hardline agendas. While the IUML is desperate to return to power, Congress will be left to answer for the pronouncements of the three wise men on Out of Focus. This is something that Congress hasn't accounted for yet. Regardless of VD Satheesan's courage to not give in to PV Anvar's shenanigans, his decision to take Jamaat-e-Islami's support will define UDF's prospects in 2026. Anand Kochukudy is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal. (Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
Time of India
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Govindan denies criticism over Emergency comment
T'puram: The nearly 20,000 votes secured by PV Anvar in Nilambur byelection reflected LDF govt's development work in the constituency, said CPM state secretary MV Govindan on Friday. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now He said voters were influenced by Anvar's claims that he was the one responsible for those projects. Govindan dismissed media reports that he faced criticism at CPM state committee and state secretariat meetings for admitting the party's cooperation with RSS during the Emergency. He said some media outlets falsely claimed that chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, industries minister P Rajeeve and CITU leader Elamaram Kareem had rebuked him. "There was no such criticism at any party forum. CPM will take legal action against those spreading fake news to tarnish the party's image," he said. Govindan accused UDF of winning Nilambur with the backing of communal forces. He said the CPM state committee believed the result was not due to anti-incumbency and that both UDF and BJP had lost vote share while LDF had expanded its support. He warned that UDF's cooperation with Jamaat-e-Islami would have serious long-term consequences. Commenting on the row over Zumba sessions in schools, Govindan said the directive had come from the general education department as part of efforts to reduce student stress. He clarified that Zumba was intended only as a warm-up exercise and was not mandatory. He added that the govt would take all communities into confidence before introducing such programmes.
Time of India
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
CPI to examine LDF setback in Nilambur
T'puram: CPI state executive asked the party's Malappuram district committee to closely examine LDF's setback in Nilambur byelection. While some CPI leaders saw this instruction to the district committee as a routine step after any election loss, there are also rumours that the party wants to check if the bypoll result signals anti-incumbency. CPI state executive believes that if anti-incumbency was strong, UDF would have gained more votes in the constituency. Since that did not happen, the party doubts the anti-incumbency theory. The district leadership will also ascertain whether the votes polled by former Left-backed independent MLA PV Anvar reflected any anti-incumbency mood. TNN
New Indian Express
24-06-2025
- Politics
- New Indian Express
How Satheesan and Team UDF scripted stunning Nilambur bypoll victory in Kerala
The mood in the state Congress and UDF has been celebratory ever since the comfortable victory in the LDF-held seat of Nilambur. Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan, termed Captain by his followers following the stunning victory of the party in the Thrikkakara, Puthupally and Palakkad byelections earlier, is no longer the sole focal point within the alliance, which he himself has realised. Following the UDF's victory in the three seats in 2022, the credit went to Satheesan, as he often called the shots unilaterally. In Puthupally, the open tussle between Satheesan and the then KPCC president K Sudhakaran at a press conference over who would talk first had destroyed the glow of the victory. Organisationally, too, Satheesan was accused of being arrogant to leaders. However, Nilambur has shown that a collective effort was behind the UDF's victory this time round. It was evident in the way Satheesan himself gave credit to 'Team UDF' in his press conference and corrected the media for giving him sole credit. No 'Satheesanism' in Congress What led to the scenario was the strong undercurrents in the Congress and UDF during the campaign, culminating in statements by senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala, KPCC president Sunny Joseph and Muslim League supremo Panakkad Sadique Ali Thangal, all of whom cleared the air of confusion, saying that PV Anvar is not a closed chapter. Going one step further, Ramesh declared that there is no 'Satheesanism' in Congress, a term now largely used to denote the opposition leader's unilateral style of functioning. This has come at a crucial time, as the Congress and UDF are gearing up for the 2026 assembly election with many contenders in line for the CM post. "There was criticism among UDF leaders and in the Congress against Satheesan calling the shots unilaterally for some time," a senior Congress leader told The New Indian Express. "Before the poll date, leaders from both the Congress and UDF conveyed to Satheesan that he should be careful while making statements and taking decisions. Satheesan's declaration that Anvar is a closed chapter for the UDF without considering the opinion of senior leaders has not gone well within the UDF. "We were anguished that his controversial response when asked about whether the failure of Aryadan Shoukath to visit former Congress candidate VV Prakash's house would cause a setback. And many youth leaders across group politics also came out against certain MLAs who are part of the opposition leader's inner ring for making reels. The loose talk of Youth Congress president Rahul Mamkootathil, who is close to Satheeshan, and the way in which he intervened in many issues was the last nail in the patience of leaders," he said. The League was upset with Satheesan after he allegedly derailed IUML general secretary PK Kunhalikutty's attempts to reach a settlement with PV Anvar. "When Kunhalikutty was minister, Satheesan was nowhere in the political landscape of Kerala," a senior League leader told The New Indian Express on condition of anonymity. 'Though we are of the opinion that the candidate of a political party should not be determined by people from outside, on a larger political sphere, there were numerous ways to tackle the issue and neutralise the threat. On many occasions, the League and Kunhalikutty have carried out this task for the Congress and UDF," he added. The Priyanka Gandhi factor Aryadan Shoukath's victory against all odds has proved that in Nilambur, the League comes first with Congress in second place. Unlike the last three byelections, in Nilambur several leaders pitched in during various stages of the campaign -- selecting the candidate, keeping it secret till the last moment, setting the campaign agenda and social engineering. It was KPCC working president AP Anil Kumar, who was also in charge of the bypoll, who successfully resolved the candidate issue by taking along DCC president VS Joy and kept the candidate's name a secret till the day Congress announced it. Anil also undertook many tasks, including registering 8,000 new voters and holding around 400 house meetings. He was the brain behind implementing public meetings at each Congress's mandalam committee. However, the election agenda for the byelection was set by AICC organisational general secretary KC Venugopal, who attacked Pinarayi Vijayan, alleging that the CM had defamed Malappuram in an earlier interview. Incidentally, the AICC also wanted a comfortable victory margin as Nilambur falls in Priyanka Gandhi's Wayanad parliament constituency. Venugopal's statement that Anvar's issues would be addressed was made taking into account AICC's decisions. However, the unexpected objection raised by Satheesan came as a surprise to the high command. AICC has taken a decision not to intervene in the state leadership's decisions to avoid a controversy. KC Venugopal's decision not to meet PV Anvar though the latter had requested to meet him in Kozhikode was in sync with this position. UDF's social engineering The Muslim League, which faced criticism at first after family members from the Panakkad family were missing from the UDF convention, went on a firefighting mode with its rank and file taking part in campaigning and door-to-door visits. League president Panakkad Sadique Ali Thangal participated in house meetings at Pothukal panchayat, the native place of CPM candidate. The League ensured that not a single vote would go to the rival side. It was PK Kunhalikutty who intervened whenever the ego clash between Satheesan and Anvar intensified. League leaders PK Basheer, PMA Salam coordinated all the campaign work. It was Basheer who had taken steps to resolve the existing issues with the candidate and League workers. The Nilambur election also witnessed the complete dominance of the UDF in social engineering by taking all community groups with them, a strategy the CPM had previously implemented successfully. When Shoukath's candidature was decided, he was quite unpopular in the constituency. It was Satheesan and KPCC secretary KP Noushad Ali who sorted out these issues by holding marathon meetings with different community groups and organisations. There are three Mujahideen sections in Nilambur. Anvar, being a Mujahideen, has a strong influence in the community. Hence, Satheesan held discussions with Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen, Wisdom and Markus Dava leadership separately. The two leaders also met the new group that emerged from the EK Sunni section, as they have an affiliation with the CPM. The leaders were also successful in taking AP Sunni sections – which are traditionally close to CPM - into confidence. To resolve the issues the merchants in Nilambur had with Shoukath, the opposition leader held discussions with the state general secretary of the powerful Vyapari Vyavasay Ekopana Samithi at its office at Nilambur for almost two hours. Anvar left with less bargaining power Meanwhile, since the BDJS, as part of the NDA, decided not to contest the election, it was UDF convener Adoor Prakash who canvassed for votes from the community in favour of the UDF. KPCC president Sunny Joseph and Roji M John made sure that the Christian community's votes remained intact. Besides youth leaders Chandy Oommen, who had covered 3,000 houses, CR Mahesh, M Liju and Mathew Kuzhlnadan, who were in charge of panchayats, worked hard to coordinate the campaigns. "The outcome of the Nilambur byelection will have an impact on the state Congress in the coming days," said a KPCC leader. Though Satheesan has objected to an association with Anvar, the 19,690 votes he garnered are enough for the UDF to reconsider their earlier stand. However, Anvar himself now knows that he has less bargaining power. He has already declared that he will be contesting the 2026 assembly election from Beypore in Kozhikode against PA Mohammad Riyaz, son-in-law of CM Pinarayi. However, the Congress will have to consider many factors, and hence accommodating him will be a matter of discussion within the Congress and the UDF in the coming days. Interesting times lie ahead.
United News of India
23-06-2025
- Politics
- United News of India
Kerala: UDF wrests Nilambur Assembly seat from ruling LDF
Malappuram, June 23 (UNI) Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate Aryadan Shoukath wrested the Nilambur Assembly constituency from the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) by a margin of 11,432 votes in the by-election on Monday. UDF's Shoukath secured 76,493 votes, LDF's M Swaraj 65,061 , Independent and former Nilambur MLA PV Anvar 19,946 and BJP-led NDA candidate Mohan George 8,706 votes. Ten contenders were in the fray in the constituency with a total of 2,32,057 voters. The turnout of 75.27 per cent was recorded on June 19 with 1,74,667 electors reaching the polling booth and exercising their right to vote. Out of 1,13,299 male voters, 81,007, out of 1,18,750 female voters, 93,658 and two out of eight transgenders exercised their right to vote. The Nilambur by-election was necessitated following the resignation of LDF- backed Independent MLA PV Anvar in January 2024. He defected from LDF and joined All India Trinamool Congress and became the state convenor of AITC. LDF backed Independent MLA Mr Anvar has been representing Nilambur assembly constituency for the last 8.5 years (2016- 2024) . In the 2016 elections, LDF-backed independent PV Anvar defeated Congress' Aryadan Shoukath by a margin of 11,504 votes from the constituency on Shoukath's maiden electoral battle, after his father Aryadan Muhammed won from Nilambur constituency six times consecutively from 1987 to 2011. In the 2021 assembly elections, LDF-backed Independent PV Anvar defeated Congress' VV Prakash by a margin of 2,700-odd votes. UNI AK PRS
