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Express Tribune
2 days ago
- Politics
- Express Tribune
The Iran-Israel War: lessons learnt & unlearnt
Wars are the continuation of policy by other means. This famous dictum by Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz forms the bedrock of post-industrial modern warfare. Every conflict makes military leaders unlearn some older lessons and learn new ones. However, the 'principles of war' distilled over space and centuries in time, remain unchanged. Any violation of these 'imperatives' costs dearly in time, effort and treasury, besides causing loss of life and limb. The recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran – with the US dragged into the fray at the 11th hour – is instructive, as it has profound geostrategic, political and military implications not only for the belligerents, but also for the region and the world, especially for the militaries like Pakistan Armed Forces. The rundown But first a factual recap. Israel started its air offensive against Iran on June 13, 2025, notching up the ongoing shadow war between the two counties into a full-scale shooting war. For 12 days upto June 25, both sides traded missiles, and drones, with Israel using IAF and inserting commando teams in clandestine operations. Both sides targeted military and industrial sites with civilian population targeted in collateral damage. The stated purpose of Israeli offensive was to destroy Iran's nuclear programme and facilitate regime change, as possible. The US, on Israeli PM Netanyahu's desperate urging joined the war on June 21, 2025, bombing the three Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan in a complex attack involving around 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and one submarine. The US used the heaviest conventional munitions like the 30,000 pounds GBU-57 bunker busting MOP (massive ordnance penetrator), and BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Iran after pre-coordination, retaliated the US bombing by attacking the sprawling Al Udaid US base in Qatar, firing 16 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted. On June 24, President Trump announced a complex ceasefire as dramatically as he had entered the war, which after some angry US reactions on violations, still holds. Decoys, covert operations and deception movements were used liberally especially by the US/Israel. Results and implications Iran's Fordow complex, containing around 3,000 sophisticated centrifuges in two enrichment halls, was attacked using the GBU-57s, and is 'severely damaged but not destroyed' as per agreed intelligence assessments, including that of Iran. The IDF-US Combo destroyed the above ground structures, electric supply and underground enrichment centrifuges at Natanz, the largest uranium enrichment facility. The laboratories at Isfahan complex, the storage site for the near bomb-grade nuclear fuel, were also destroyed. Tehran still possesses over 400kg of Uranium, reportedly enriched up to 60 per cent, below the weapons grade enrichment of around 80-90 per cent. This is enough for some nine nuclear bombs. Iran is likely to have stored this enriched Uranium safely elsewhere, and most likely shifted some critical infrastructure to other unknown, undeclared and undetected sites beforehand. So, it is safe to assume that Irani nuclear progamme is mauled, delayed but probably not eliminated. The nuclear programme seems to have survived the strongest possible challenge, and Iran's missiles capability remains intact and able to re-establish deterrence. Geostrategically, Iran's 3H (Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah) proxies are effectively degraded in the IDF and Mossad's joint military and covert operations. Consequently, Irani military and political influence got a big hit in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. The Sunni crescent seems to have come out stronger. Militarily, the IDF has extensively degraded Iran's air defence system, and left over air power through effective SEAD (Suppression of Enemy AD) operations. It targeted missile sites, launchers and manufacturing facilities. Through clandestine teams using agents, moles within the Irani military and government, Tel Aviv has killed the top leadership of Revolutionary Guards (IRGC or Pasadaran) and other branches of Irani military, and upto a dozen top nuclear scientists and clergy. However, despite this attrition, Ayatollahs remain in power with no immediate threat to their rule and authority for now. Irani people were subjected to intense psy-ops, and propaganda involving pro-Shah expat Irani communities, to rise up against the regime and vacate Tehran during hostilities. However, despite deep fissures, unrest and suppression and faltering economy, Iran seemed to hold its ground during this brief but intense combat. The Middle East (ME) balance of power is altered decidedly away from Iran and tilted towards Israel. This will have implications. For now, Israel seems to be the dominant military power in the ME and is on the roll with the US backing. China and Russia provided diplomatic, political and 'some' military support to Tehran. Türkiye, Qatar, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia played helpful role in the ceasefire and containment of hostilities. COAS Field Marshal Asim, during his recent visit to the US, was reportedly able to persuade President Trump not to use excessive force against Iran, during their unprecedented Oval Office meeting. Lessons unlearnt 'The first lesson 'was'…that nuclear sites are not to be attacked'. Israel's no-holds-barred illegality aside, the unprecedented US attack on another country's nuclear sites sets a new normal by the sole superpower. This could and would be emulated in future conflicts with immense consequences. Nuclear facilities are no longer sacrosanct in a military conflict. Modi's India, following Netanyahu's template, can and might replicate this brazenness. 'Second, technological advantage is guarantee for security'. Unlearnt. Israel emerged neither victorious nor unscathed from the relentless and en-masse Irani hypersonic missile response, that during the last days of the war was able to penetrate Israel's multi-layered AD system, comprising Arrow Missiles, David's Sling and the Iron Dome. This costly AD system (costing some 167 million USD per engagement) was swarmed, saturated and exhausted repeatedly by low-cost Irani drone and missile combos, in layers, wearing it down. 'Third, Israel's effective strategy of 'Escalation Dominance', (that is to disproportionately punish any state or non-state actor committing violence against Israel) will ensure peace and security for Israel'. Unlearnt. Irani drone-missile barrages undermined not only Israel's 'Escalation Dominance' but also its strategy under the Dahiya Doctrine, that involves large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure, like in Gaza. Dahiya is also called 'domicide' and is employed to pressure foreign governments. Despite being without effective air cover, Iran was able to absorb IDF attacks and sustain its own drone/missile offensive till the very end. The roughly 11 per cent mostly hypersonic ballistic missiles getting through the Israeli AD and hitting electricity grids, refineries, and in some cases, Israeli settlements on occupied lands, caused mass exodus of Jewish settlers. The bunker psychosis, and vanishing sense of security forced many Israelis to flee to other countries, to a not very warm welcome. 'The fourth lesson to be unlearnt is that antisemitism is dead for good'. Conversely, antisemitism spiked to an all-time high and remains so for the 'child killers of Gaza' as IDF and Israeli Government are referred to. The over 600-day wars in Gaza and Iran has left deep scars on the already stressed Israeli state, society, psyche and armed forces. This exhaustion will have socio-psychological implications. 'Fifth, the rule-based international order has no scope for 'rogue' behaviour'. Unlearnt. This conflict validates the age-old dictum of 'might is right', demonstrating that rules, regulations and statutes are only for the weak and voiceless. The strong can trample them with impunity. International organisations like the UN, established for the very purpose of ensuring global peace and security, remain hostage to the powerful. The US vetoes in the UNSC in favour of a genocidal Israel are cases in point. Geostrategic realignment The global chessboard is re-aligned like never before. Israel although bruised and battered by the Iranian onslaught, remains a dominant military power in the ME, for now. Iran will recuperate from its moment of peril and weakness overtime. Iran has undergone a reality check and would be a nuclear power sooner than later. Rationally speaking, it would mend its fractured ties with the Sunni world and avoid nurturing destabilising proxies. It has realised the value of its relationship with Pakistan, and seen the Indian duplicity, given New Delhi's friendship with and support to Israel. Jewish and Zionist causes took a great hit and sympathy towards Jewish people among gentiles is at an all-time low. Israel under BB has greatly damaged the Jewish cause by bringing to limelight the Jewish stranglehold on the US power levers. This is not to the liking of majority of non-Jewish Americans, most of whom comprise Trump's power base. The US attacks on Iran remained conspicuously unpopular within the US, and exacerbated divisions among Americans and among the Europeans, stemming from Israeli conduct and cruelty in Gaza over the last some two years. Russia is likely to be an assertive player with or without China and may push for ingress into Syria, its erstwhile ally. Its tacit support will continue for Tehran. Middle East per se is likely to go towards multipolarity with the US, China and Russian fiefs, especially after America's direct involvement in the war. Political lessons Politically, the war will reverberate into the domestic politics of belligerents. Bibi Netanyahu, for now idolised as 'Mr. Security' by a paranoid Israel, will ultimately have to deal with the more complex question of 'what now' in Gaza and the West Bank in dealing with the hereafter of his genocidal destruction. He or the future Israeli leadership will have to calibrate relations with an Iran that will ultimately be a nuclear power. Iran will have to decide if its proxy power is to stay or otherwise, as it is to the great chagrin of most stake holders in the greater Middle East. Lebanon wants to re-assert its control that was ceded to Hezbollah; Yemen would like to restrain in the Houthis; and Hamas may not die its death but would look for alternative patrons, after the Syrian route for their logistic replenishment is gone. The Sunni crescent would like to see Iran defanged from its interventionist politics and brinkmanship. Military lessons Militarily this war will, heretofore, intensify the race to acquire nuclear weapons globally, hitting at the very basis of non-proliferation. Iran may be restrained for some time, but a nuclear Iran in the mid to long-term is a reality, that Israel will have to live with, with or without the Ayatollahs in power. Physical infrastructure of a nuclear progamme can be destroyed but not the knowledge base. In this case, even the physical infrastructure was not completely taken out, given its impossibility. Destroying Iran's knowledge base by assassinating its scientists is just an act of desperate jitteriness by Israel. Knowledge is non-perishable. Nuclear sites are no more kosher in a shooting war, especially since the sole superpower has set a new normal by participating in attacks on Irani nuclear facilities. This will have lasting implications for America and other nuclear powers especially China and Russia. Pakistan will also need to consider this once unthought scenario in dealing with Modi's India. Asset hardening like in Fordow is the way to go. Small powers like Pakistan, facing larger enemies will have to seriously invest in hardening their aerial, missile and nuclear assets. For nuclear powers, announcement of a clear nuclear policy is a compulsion now to remove any misunderstanding and/or breakdown of conventional deterrence during escalation. Iran will have to come clear on the issue of nuclearisation, civil or military; scale down its revolutionary rhetoric; and deal with its post-nuclear policy. Pakistan must announce its nuclear policy to debunk the strategic thinking among some Indian decision-makers, civil and military, that there is space for a limited punitive conventional conflict with Pakistan, under the nuclear overhang. Escalation control was demonstrated by both Iran and Israel, through limiting their attacks largely to the military targets, agreeing to a ceasefire and re-establish deterrence once military options were not making headway. Iran re-established conventional deterrence through its relentless missile barrages, especially immediately after the US attack, when its longest attack lasted a good 40 minutes. The conflict validated the use of drone and missile technologies by the weaker states, and their socio-psychological impact on the population. Warfare, given the intense involvement of media especially the amok social media, is now a whole-of-the nation affair, not restricted to the military alone. Likewise, as experienced in this conflict, AD with continuous upgradation, acquisition of cutting-edge aircraft, investment in the drone and missile technologies, and strengthening air force are critical, especially for Pakistan now, like never before. Contact ground battle is taking a back seat, especially when belligerents are distant and do not share any land border like Iran and Israel. This may in such cases, gradually diminish the role and importance of services like the Army, and particularly the infantry. This validates greater significance of air force, drones, missiles, electronic warfare, space and cyber capabilities. Pakistani military should need to keep a watchful eye on these domains. For us, following a 'Continental Strategy' would remain vogue, as ground war with India is a lurking possibility. Pakistan would need the dual investment in conventional force structure, as well as niche capabilities, as cited. Our own short skirmish with India in May this year has validated these lessons. Israel's bold and successful manipulation of Irani assets to their great advantage, substantiates the importance of counterintelligence. Insertion of commando teams inside Iran, establishing bases, recruiting agents and moles, assassinations, pager explosions, and induction of cyber tools are some areas where IDF worked very closely with Mossad. Pakistan will have to ensure counterintelligence vis-à-vis India, and strengthen its own intelligence collection and counterintelligence capabilities, using paramilitary, espionage and other assets. One of the glaring weaknesses was Israel's ability to sustain regular AD at home, and aerial onslaught over Iran, due to the dual challenges of geography and logistics. The over 3,000 kms roundtrip to attack Iran needed multiple midair refueling by IAF fighter jets. IAF's limited KC-707 air refuellers fleet curtailed the size of IAF flotilla, making its offensive punch lighter over targets, needing multiple revisits. Non- availability of bunker busting munitions and long-range bombers to carry these over to targets in Iran also limited Israeli options, enhancing its dependence on the US. Over employment of the AD system created munition shortfalls even within the US, allowing more Irani missiles to penetrate through, particularly during the last days of war. Finally, the resolve of leadership, civil and military, is very important. Iran's refusal to surrender; and Netanyahu who mostly followed his gut rather than the advice of World Jewry; remained decisive during various stages of the war. Iran's will to fight, its ingenious employment of drones, and Tehran enhancing the tyranny of its geography for Israel, remained decisive factors. Every major conflict changes the nature of warfare, without affecting the rules and principles of warfare. In geostrategy, Israel was a victim of over-stretch, trying to overcome its demographic and geographic vulnerabilities; just like Iran was a victim of its own over-stretch by raising, mentoring and financing proxies and muddying its ties with stake holders in the region. One hopes, this war leads to some sort of wise accommodation on the core issues like the Palestinian problem, Iran's nuclear programme, and Israel's heartless application of force and America's blind support. Inam ul Haque is a retired Pakistan Army major general who writes on defence, global affairs and political sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@ and his Twitter handle @20_Inam All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the author
Arab News
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Pakistan says armed forces ‘fully alert' amid Israel's ongoing conflict with Iran
ISLAMABAD: Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said on Monday that Pakistan's armed forces were 'fully alert' amid Israel's ongoing military conflict with Iran, vowing to safeguard the country's nuclear assets. Dar's statement came as the military conflict between Iran and Israel entered its fourth day on Monday, with no signs of the two sides letting up. The worst fighting between the regional foes began late Friday when Israel carried out strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and military leadership. So far, Iran says 224 people have been killed due to Israeli strikes while Tel Aviv has said at least 18 people have been killed by Iran. During a senate session, opposition lawmaker Shibli Faraz questioned whether Pakistan's nuclear facilities were safe in light of Israel's recent strikes against Iran, urging the government not to be complacent in safeguarding them. 'Israel dare not look to Pakistan,' Dar said in response. 'By the grace of god, Pakistan has the strength to respond to a brick with a stone, to any mala fide [intentions]. 'I assure my brother the armed forces of Pakistan are fully alert. As they were alert during the India-Pakistan conflict,' he added. The deputy prime minister was referring to India and Pakistan's military conflict last month. The two countries pounded each other with missiles, drone strikes, fighter jets and artillery fire in a military conflict that lasted for four days before Washington brokered a ceasefire on May 10. Dar said the Pakistani nation had developed its nuclear and missile defense system at a great cost and would protect them. 'These are the nation's assets, these are the nation's trust. This is the trust for the coming generation,' he said. 'It is our responsibility to safeguard it unitedly, which we will do, are doing and will do it together.' Israel sees Iran's nuclear program as a threat to its existence. It said its strikes on Friday were designed to avert the last steps to the production of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Tehran insists its nuclear program is entirely civilian and it does not seek an atomic bomb. The UN nuclear watchdog, however, reported Iran last week as violating obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty. Pakistan has criticized Israel in strong words and repeatedly said Iran has the right to retaliate under the UN Charter. Islamabad has also vowed to offer diplomatic support to Iran at international forums.
Khaleej Times
07-06-2025
- Politics
- Khaleej Times
Pakistan PM Sharif pays tribute to 'brave soldiers' on Eid Al Adha
As Pakistan celebrated Eid Al Adha on Saturday, June 7, its Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took the opportunity to honour the sacrifices of the "brave soldiers of our Armed Forces." "As we offer the symbolic sacrifice today, let us also honour the sacrifices of our valiant sons of the soil, especially the brave soldiers of our Armed Forces, who have once again proven their unmatched courage, professionalism, and resolve in the successful conduct of Operation Bunyan Um Marsoos," the Pakistan premier said in a post on X. After tensions escalated between nuclear-armed neighbours Pakistan and India following the Pahalgam attack in Kashmir in April, India launched its military campaign 'Operation Sindoor.' Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan Um Marsoos. After four days of conflict, US President Donald Trump brokered a "full and immediate ceasefire". "Their steadfast defence of our sovereignty and territorial integrity during the recent military aggression by India has written a new and glorious chapter in our nation's history. The entire country salutes their selfless service as well as the sacrifice of our innocent civilians," he further said. The 73-year-old also took the moment to reflect on the suffering of Palestinian "brothers and sisters." "This Eid also reinforces the values of empathy and compassion. We must remember and reach out to those in need, particularly our Palestinian brothers and sisters who continue to suffer from inhumane atrocities and hunger under a ruthless blockade," Sharif said. "Let us also draw inspiration from this Eid day to promote peace, justice, and compassion in our society and beyond," he added. Eid greetings to world leaders Sharif also had telephonic conversations with several leaders from around the world and wished them on the blessed occasion of Eid Al Adha. Sharif wished Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on the occasion and expressed his gratitude for Cairo's constructive role during the recent Pakistan-India crisis. Sharif also spoke to Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani as well as Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al Hamad Al Mubarak Al Sabah, the Crown Prince of Kuwait.
Business Recorder
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
There exists no need to launch large-scale operation in province: Bugti
ISLAMABAD: Chief Minister of Balochistan Sarfraz Bugti has ruled out the need for a large-scale military operation in the province, stating that Pakistan will thwart every attack orchestrated by the so-called 'Fitna-e-Hindustan.' Addressing at a press conference in Islamabad, Bugti accused India of resorting to proxy warfare following its military failures. 'After suffering defeat, India is now relying on proxies. The enemy is waging a proxy war against us and dreams of destabilising Pakistan's rising economy,' he said. Bugti said India's 'evil designs' have been exposed, and the state holds 'solid evidence' against Fitna-e-Hindustan. He claimed the recent attack in Khuzdar, in which children were martyred, was carried out through these proxies and backed by the Indian intelligence agency RAW. 'RAW is fully supporting Fitna-e-Hindustan and is providing intelligence to their handlers. These terrorists should not be associated with the Baloch people,' he emphasised. The chief minister reiterated that all acts of terrorism in Balochistan have been RAW-funded since day one. 'There is no need for any large military operation in Balochistan. We will successfully foil every attack launched by Fitna-e-Hindustan,' Bugti asserted. He also criticised Indian media for spreading false reports, including a fabricated story about the destruction of Karachi Port. 'Fitna-e-Hindustan is part of a conspiracy to put Pakistan's peace at risk,' he added. 'India was defeated on the battlefield, and the Pakistan Armed Forces gave a befitting response to Indian aggression,' Bugti said. Commenting on internal matters, he said that political dialogue is always possible with political parties, but issues such as missing persons are often used as propaganda against the state. 'In today's polarised environment, it is nearly impossible for political parties to agree on any issue,' he concluded. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Express Tribune
05-06-2025
- Sport
- Express Tribune
Mohammad Shehzad, 64-year old Pakistani, wins Gold at Asian Indoor Rowing Championship
Mohammad Shehzad, a 64-year-old rower from Pakistan, delivered an outstanding performance at the Asian Indoor Rowing Championship in Thailand, clinching the gold medal in the 60+ singles category. Shehzad, facing a younger Indian opponent, James Joseph, secured first place, making history with his victory and setting an Asian record of 1:32.30. His daughter Mahoor Shahzad, an Olympian who represented Pakistan in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, celebrated her father's achievement on X (formerly Twitter). Alhamdulillah! My father, Muhammad Shahzad, won a gold medal at the 2025 Asian Indoor Rowing Championship, defeating his Indian rival — at the age of 64! Watching him achieve this has completely transformed the way I view determination, discipline, and strength. — Mahoor Shahzad (@OfficialMahoor) June 5, 2025 Shehzad's victory added to Pakistan's impressive overall performance at the championship, where the nation secured 14 medals, including 10 gold, 3 silver, and 1 bronze. The championship, held from May 26 to 31 in Pattaya, Thailand, saw athletes competing on indoor rowing machines, such as the Concept2 ergometer, simulating the rowing experience in a controlled environment. This remarkable achievement capped off a series of successes by Pakistani rowers, with Abdul Jabbar and Tayyab Iftikhar also contributing to the medal tally. Shehzad's win, however, stood out as a personal triumph, and he dedicated the victory to the Pakistan Armed Forces and the nation's martyrs, further adding emotional depth to his achievement.
