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Express Tribune
2 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Poultry, diesel push SPI up by 0.38%
Listen to article The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended July 17, 2025 recorded an increase of 0.38%, driven by notable hikes in prices of essential food and fuel items. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), chicken prices surged by 8.31%, eggs by 5.87% and diesel by 4.15%, while petrol and staples like onions, garlic and potatoes also saw upward trends. Conversely, prices of tomatoes dropped sharply by 9.34%, bananas by 1.57% and LPG by 0.95%, providing some relief to consumers. Additionally, 20 items, including beef, vegetable ghee and electricity charges, remained stable, which indicated a mixed inflationary landscape. Year-on-year (YoY) data showed an overall decline of 1.61% in the SPI, driven by substantial drops in prices of onions (-48.65%), tomatoes (-48.44%) and electricity charges for the lowest income group (-37.62%). However, several items recorded significant annual increases, including ladies' sandals (55.62%), sugar (27.76%) and pulses such as moong (17.91%). The SPI's impact varied across income groups, with the lowest quintile (Q1) experiencing a modest 0.13% weekly increase, while the highest quintile (Q5) saw a 0.46% rise. Annually, Q1 recorded a 2.17% decline, whereas Q5 faced a milder drop of 0.45%, indicating that lower-income households benefited more from the reduction in prices of certain staples. Despite this, the rising costs of non-food items like footwear and textiles continue to strain household budgets, particularly for middle and upper-income groups. Economists attribute the weekly price hikes to supply chain disruptions, seasonal factors and global fuel price fluctuations, particularly affecting perishable goods like chicken and eggs. The annual decline in some categories reflects improved agricultural output and stabilisation in key sectors. However, the persistent rise in sugar, pulses and clothing underscores structural challenges in production and distribution. Policymakers are urged by the public to address supply-side constraints, enhance market monitoring and implement targeted subsidies to stabilise prices for low-income families. The PBS report underscores the need for balanced economic policies to manage inflation, particularly for essential commodities. While recent trends show some relief in food prices, the volatility in non-food items remains a concern. The government's focus on improving supply chains and controlling speculative pricing will be crucial in ensuring stable inflation in the coming months.
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
SPI-based inflation slows down
ISLAMABAD: The Sensitive Price Index (SPI)-based inflation upward trend slowed down as it increased by 0.38percent for the current week ended on July 17, 2025 compared to 0.95percent in the previous week. The statistics issued by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) show a major increase in the prices of chicken 8.31percent, eggs 5.87percent, diesel 4.15percent, petrol two percent, onions 1.76percent, garlic 1.70percent, potatoes 1.46percent, firewood 0.49percent, cooked daal 0.35percent, mutton and powdered milk 0.31percent each and cigarettes 0.25percent. On the other hand, a decrease is observed in the prices of tomatoes 9.34percent, bananas 1.57percent, LPG 0.95percent, pulse gram 0.31percent, moong 0.30percent, wheat flour 0.25percent, cooking oil 5-litre and sugar 0.21percent each and IRRI-6/9 0.05percent. SPI-based inflation rises During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 22 items (43.14percent) increased, nine items (17.65percent) decreased and 20 items (39.22percent) remained stable. The Year-on-Year trend depicts a decrease of 1.61percent. Major decrease is observed in the prices of onions 48.65percent, tomatoes 48.44percent, electricity charges for Q1 37.62percent, garlic 23.17percent, wheat flour 22.56percent, maash 20.67percent, tea Lipton 17.93percent, potatoes 13.69percent, masoor 9.02percent and petrol 1.24percent. While major increase is observed in the prices of ladies sandal 55.62percent, sugar 27.76percent, moong 17.91percent, beef 14.62percent, gur 12.50percent, vegetable ghee 2.5kg 12.46percent, vegetable ghee 1kg 12.32percent, chicken 11.77percent, firewood 10.77percent, bananas 9.67percent, lawn printed 7.32percent and georgette 7.20percent. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
PPI framework to be developed by end-June 2026: PBS
ISLAMABAD: The Producer Price index (PPI) framework will be developed by end of the current fiscal year (end-June 2026) and in-house work with the collaboration of the provinces has been initiated. This was revealed by sources in the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) to Business Recorder. The IMF in its 11th September 2024 document titled Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation and request for an Extended Arrangement noted that it would provide a technical assistance to PBS given that 'important shortcomings remain in the source data available for sectors accounting for around a third of GDP, while there are issues with the granularity and reliability of the Government Finance Statistics. Q3FY25: Pakistan economy posts 2.4% growth The authorities are prioritizing addressing these weaknesses, supported by Fund TA on the GFS and a new PPI index and the PBS will soon begin fieldwork for four major surveys ahead of the upcoming NA rebasing to FY26.' According to a source in PBS, through PPI the entire price chain starting from farm gate/factory gate to retail outlets will become part of the country's statistical system. PPI will determine the cost of production at the factory gate/farm gate and the price paid by the end consumer. At present PBS monitors wholesale and retail price of products but through this index actual production cost at factory gate/farm gate will be noted. 'Through this index the production price received by farmers, prices at factory gate of locally produced goods and cost of imported goods at the port will be monitored,' the source said adding that through this Index it would be easy for the government to identify the role of middlemen and hoarders the source further stated adding that 'if there are discrepancies or unusual increase or decrease in the cost of production and the end consumer price the Government can easily detect the role of middleman by monitoring the trade and transport margin.' The PBS has already started work on change of base year of National Accounts from 2015-16 to 2025-26 – the selection of the base year made by the governing council of PBS that the national accounts be rebased after every 10 years. The PBS source further noted that the new base will be implemented by 2027-28. Theoretically a base year should be relatively calm and stable year. The PBS is the National Statistical Organization (NSO) and follows 2008 System of compiling National Accounts which are well documented and vetted by the World Bank, the source added. The PBS intends to will launch fieldwork for four major surveys (including the integrated agricultural census, labor force survey, and household integrated economic survey) in July 2024, from which preliminary results are expected to become available during FY25. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Cement's concrete plans
At record low capacity utilization, trailing somewhere below 53 percent, the cement industry is set to grow profits in double-digits during FY25. In 9MFY25, profitability was up 57 percent cumulatively for listed cement companies and in the fourth quarter, market expectations are that the industry will experience earnings expansionbetween 14 and 30 percent. This is despite a nominal growth in total offtake of 2 percent; bolstered by a 30 percent growth in cement exports and a 3 percent decline in domestic sales of cement in the full year. The profitability is enabled not only by robust exports but domestic pricing power and a cost discipline that is unparalleled. This can be corroborated by industry's financial performance in 9M where revenue per units sold grew 6 percent year on year, while costs only rose 1 percent. This similarly coincides with average pricing data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) that shows in FY25, average cement prices in the north portions of the country rose 6 percent, while they were up 21 percent in the southern locations. Domestic producers enjoy a persistent pricing power in the domestic markets with close association and tacit agreement on price directions that gives the industry a significant advantage over market dynamics. It is for this reason that even at such low levels of utilization, companies have not entered into price wars to sell off excess cement which is the typical modus operandi in a competitive market. Instead, when domestic demand becomes saturated, the new strategy is to cast their net wider into exporting markets where Pakistani cement can gain acess—though at much more competitive prices than cement makers are used to at home. It is no surprise then that exports contributed to 20 percent of the sales mix in FY25, which was 16 percent and 10 percent in the years prior. Even at these levels of exports contribution though, the capacity utilization of less than 60 percent is concerning for demand. One that has been marred by continued macroeconomic challenges and cuts in development spending. That cement manufacturers are still turning profits is a testament to not only strong retention pricing (prices have risen 2.2x since FY21) but a control over their energy costs that have been curtailed through investments in effeciency enhancing energy projects. At the same time, controls over overheads, and financial costs being covered by other income and investments also buttresses post-tax income. In FY26, while price trajectories are expected to remain the same (upward looking), recent government policies to boost real estate and construction activity through tax measures and housing subsidies will revive demand in the short-run. This will allow cement manufacturers to keep their utilization at reasonable levels and cover their fixed costs. With no new major expansions on the horizon, FY26 may be the time for investors to enjoy the spoils of their labor past.
Business Recorder
7 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Ministry releases NFE Statistical Report 2023-24
ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training has released an Annual Statistical Report 2023-24 regarding Non Formal Education (NFE) in Pakistan, with a notable 20% increase in enrollment compared to the previous year. The report showed an estimated enrolment of 35,427 with NFE centers serve 1,290,009 learners. As far as gender parity is concerned, over 57% of learners are girls, with significant regional variations. Report mentioned that 82% of teachers are female, with significant regional variations whereas 3,382 adult literacy centers serve 80,093 learners, demonstrating a significant increase in focus on adult literacy. In addition, around 10,181 refugee children, primarily from Afghanistan, are enrolled in NFE programmes. While the public sector plays a dominant role, the contribution of private and development sector organizations is crucial. Pakistan faces a significant education crisis, with an estimated 25.37 million out-of-school children (OOSC) aged 5-16, according to the 7th Population and Housing Census Report 2023 by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. This number has risen alarmingly, influenced by the impacts of COVID-19 and recent floods. Non-Formal Education (NFE) serves as a vital alternative, providing flexible and accessible learning opportunities for these children. Recent years have witnessed significant developments in the NFE sector, including the formulation of a comprehensive NFE policy, strengthened institutional frameworks, and the scaling up of Accelerated Learning Programs (ALPs), including innovative models like ALP (Middle-Tech). The 'Zero OOSC Campaign' in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) a successful collaboration between government agencies, NGOs, and the community, demonstrates the effectiveness of a coordinated approach in identifying and enrolling OOSC. The 2023-24 NFE Statistical Report provides valuable insights into the current state of NFE in Pakistan. Annual Report recommended to expand Adult Learning Programme (ALP) Programmes, prioritise the expansion of ALP (Middle-Tech) programs due to their high retention rates (70%) and their ability to provide both academic and vocational skills. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
