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Newsweek
08-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Nobel Peace Prize: Odds
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, and Newsweek has broken down his odds of winning. The Context Trump has long called himself a master peacemaker and made clear his desire for the Nobel Peace Prize. On Monday, Netanyahu announced the nomination as he and Trump, joined by their senior aides, held a dinner in the White House Blue Room to discuss Iran and the advancement of a proposed 60-day ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu said: "He's forging peace as we speak in one country, in one region after the other. So I want to present to you the letter I sent to the Nobel Prize Committee. It's nominating you for the Nobel Peace Prize. It's well deserved, and you should get it." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, handing U.S. President Donald Trump a folder during a meeting in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 7. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, handing U.S. President Donald Trump a folder during a meeting in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 7. AP What To Know Trump's current odds for winning the Nobel Peace Prize range between 17/2 (10.5 percent) and 6/1 (14.3 percent) across several major sportsbooks, according to the betting website Oddschecker, placing him as the second favorite for bookmakers. Russian political figure Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny—who died in prison last year—is the top contender. Ladbrokes and Coral offer 6/1 odds on Trump, while William Hill lists 11/2 (15.4 percent). Sky Bet and Paddy Power offer 17/2. These midrange odds generally represent a candidate with high visibility and political influence, but whose candidacy may be polarizing or subject to broader international scrutiny. Other public figures listed on Oddschecker for the Nobel Peace Prize include Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres and Philippe Lazzarini, the commissioner-general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign committee, previously nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. However, Merezhko later withdrew the nomination, telling Newsweek last month that he had "lost any sort of faith and belief" in the U.S. president and his ability to secure a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv. Trump, who repeatedly said during his 2024 presidential campaign that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the White House, said in June that ending the conflict was "more difficult than people would have any idea." What People Are Saying Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israel affairs at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, told the Associated Press on Monday: "Trump thinks that Netanyahu owes him. And if Trump thinks that he needs to end the war in Gaza, then that is what he will need to do." U.S. President Donald Trump told the Israeli prime minister about the nomination: "Coming from you in particular, this is very meaningful." What Happens Next The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement is due to take place on October 10 at the Norwegian Nobel Institute.


Times of Oman
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Times of Oman
UNRWA warns of severe financial crisis threatening continuity of its services
New York: The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has warned that it is facing a severe financial crisis that threatens its ability to continue operating until the end of the current year. UNRWA's media advisor, Adnan Abu Hasna, said in a press release that the financial shortfall is not confined to the Gaza Strip or the West Bank but extends across all UNRWA areas of operation, including Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and East Jerusalem. He revealed that the agency is currently grappling with a deficit of approximately $200 million. Abu Hasna urged the international community to act swiftly to support the agency, emphasising that this responsibility does not rest solely on UNRWA's shoulders, but is a collective obligation of all United Nations General Assembly member states. He had previously raised the alarm by announcing that UNRWA's available funds would only cover operations until the end of June, calling for immediate financial assistance to sustain the agency's vital work. UNRWA relies almost entirely on voluntary contributions from UN member states to fund its operations. The agency plays a critical role in providing essential services to millions of Palestinian refugees, including education, healthcare, relief assistance, infrastructure development, camp improvements, community support programmes, microfinance services, and emergency humanitarian aid, particularly during times of conflict.

Sydney Morning Herald
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Package teal: The independent movement, three years on
Elsewhere in Sydney, the teal line held firm. Sophie Scamps retained Mackellar with a swing, Zali Steggall held Warringah, and Allegra Spender stayed on in Wentworth. The only departing teal was Kylea Tink, whose North Sydney seat was abolished. Victoria: Teal cracks show The sole teal upset came in Victoria, with Zoe Daniel all but assumed to have lost Goldstein to former Liberal MP Tim Wilson in a dramatic rematch (although a recount is still on the cards). Daniel beat Wilson in 2022, but this time Wilson pulled ahead on postal votes after Daniel prematurely claimed victory on election night. The margin in the see-sawing count narrowed again in recent days, but most observers predict Wilson will win – just. His triumph was historic: the first Liberal to reclaim a seat from an independent, and the first to defeat a teal incumbent. He dubbed himself a 'teal slayer' and borrowed from their campaign playbook – early corflutes, branded T-shirts, and 'coffee swarms'. While Daniel focused on national issues like climate policy and tax reform, Wilson zeroed in on hyper-local concerns around crime and planning, despite them being state matters. He also targeted Goldstein's 10 per cent Jewish community, calling himself a Zionist and criticising Daniel's support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. Wilson's win came despite being outspent by Daniel, who raised more than $1.8 million – including $570,000 from Climate 200 – and, like other incumbents, had the advantage of publicly funded office resources running into the hundreds of thousands. Wilson said his $1 million campaign was partly self-funded, but he disclosed no donations pre-election, in line with the minimum requirements under federal rules. Third-party groups – Australians for Prosperity, Better Australia, and Repeal the Teal – ran aggressive attack ads against Daniel. Two of these had direct Liberal links. 'The teals are not an unstoppable force,' Wilson said. 'No matter how large their chequebook, it can be beaten by a strong Liberal heart and a courageous Liberal heart.' Loading Monique Ryan survived a tough battle in Kooyong after a redistribution added Liberal-leaning areas such as Toorak and Malvern from the abolished neighbouring electorate of Higgins. Her six-point 2022 victory over Josh Frydenberg was reduced to a slim margin – 50.6 per cent after preferences, or just 1400 votes as of Saturday – following a strong challenge from Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer. Anticipating a tight race, Ryan's team knocked on 55,000 doors and raised $1.1 million from 2683 donors (including $47,000 from Climate 200) since the start of the year. Hamer's campaign cost around $1.5 million, according to a Liberal party spokesman. Kenny noted that the Melbourne teals had a rougher ride than their Sydney counterparts due to a number of small but compounding factors: the unpopularity of the Allan Labor state government, local law and order issues in affluent suburbs, and less favourable boundary changes. 'So a lot of small things adding up to pretty difficult circumstances,' he said. Added to this was the sizeable Jewish population in both electorates – larger in Goldstein. 'There's obviously quite a strong pro-Israel vote in Goldstein … so I think that's probably not helped [Daniel], either. And given that we're talking about such fine margins, you don't need big shifts in any of these things for it to matter.' Kenny and other analysts said while then-opposition leader Peter Dutton was not popular, the vitriol felt for him was not comparable to Scott Morrison in 2022 – most notably because Dutton was not prime minister. Still, Dutton mostly stayed clear of teal seats, where he was seen as a liability. 'That anti-Dutton message doesn't work quite as well … particularly as we got later in the campaign, and it became clear that he wasn't going to win,' analyst Ben Raue, of The Tally Room blog and podcast, said. 'Dutton stayed away from these seats, he was no help there. If Tim Wilson gets re-elected [in Goldstein], it's not thanks to him.' Unlike Bradfield in NSW, the Liberal candidates in Goldstein and Kooyong also had long lead-in times – Wilson began campaigning almost as soon as he lost in 2022, while Hamer was preselected for Kooyong more than a year out from the election. Both candidates mounted strong ground games. Beyond the city: High hopes, hard limits Regional Victoria was also disappointing terrain for independent candidates hoping to make fresh inroads. Helen Haines comfortably retained Indi with 58.5 per cent of the vote after a minuscule swing against her (-0.41 per cent), but no new Climate 200 candidates broke through. Wannon, held by Liberal MPs (including former prime Minister Malcolm Fraser) since 1955, proved resilient to the teal pitch for a third time. Dan Tehan's campaign, assisted by right-wing lobby Advance, framed Alex Dyson – a comedian and podcaster – as a 'Green in disguise' and even a 'clown'. The result was a modest swing to Tehan, now a rising power in the diminished Coalition. Touted contests in peri-urban Flinders, on the Mornington Peninsula, and regional Monash, covering parts of Gippsland, failed to fire, despite independent candidates snatching double-figure primary votes. No inroads were made elsewhere in NSW: Berowra (won by Liberal Julian Leeser), Gilmore (Labor's Fiona Phillips), Cowper (Nationals' Pat Conaghan), Calare (National-turned-independent Andrew Gee), Lyne (Nationals' Alison Penfold), Farrer (now Liberal leader Sussan Ley), or Riverina (Nationals' Michael McCormack). Kenny said regional seats were less susceptible to independent challengers unless they were former Nationals – like Andrew Gee or Bob Katter. 'The Nats have done quite well, and the reasons for that is that these country electorates, or regional electorates, tend to be very stable, population-wise,' he said. 'They tend to still reflect the somewhat older model of people being loyal to a particular party consistently and perhaps even intergenerationally.' Climate 200-backed independents failed to take any of the six Queensland seats they contested – although Holmes à Court has said Ellie Smith, who ran in Dutton's seat of Dickson, holds some responsibility for unseating the opposition leader by sending preferences to Labor's Ali France. Do the teals still matter? And to whom? Holmes à Court said the election result was 'a strong endorsement' for community independents and noted that independents had finished in the top two candidates in 22 electorates. He noted that 1 million Australians voted for an independent and that independents enjoyed the strongest swing, marginally ahead of Labor. 'But politics is brutal, right? There's, there's no silver medal,' he admitted. Psephologist Kevin Bonham was more blunt. He said the teals were 'a side show'. 'The whole election was very heavily about what people thought of the Coalition and the influence of Trump making people wary of change,' he said. 'The sort of the issues that the teals campaign on were big things in 2022, and they're just not the same deal any more to a lot of voters.' Labor's massive majority means it doesn't need support from the independents to pass legislation and has a reliable Greens bloc in the Senate. Kenny says the teals could still be influential in the political discussion. 'They're articulate. They're professional. It's what differentiates them from a lot of the hacks that the major parties [field],' he said. 'Zali Steggall made this point very well. She's not had the balance of power in either of the two last parliaments, but still been able to get quite a lot done in terms of legislation that she's either sponsored or championed in one way or another, or made amendments to through negotiations.' Perhaps where the teals remain most significant is in what their presence means for the Liberal Party. Of the 35 candidates backed by Climate 200, only five targeted Labor-held seats – in Bean, Fremantle, Franklin, Gilmore and Solomon – and all were unsuccessful. The movement's greatest impact continues to be as a thorn in the side of the conservative party. However, Ghazarian noted that the mixed results for the teals signal volatility among voters. 'This result suggests that it's still not conclusive about the longevity of the teals and that voters are still willing to go back or to support the Liberal Party if the candidate and the local campaign resonates with their preferences and with their aspirations,' he said. Despite likely regaining Goldstein, the Liberal Party will remain in the political wilderness if it cannot win back the inner-city metropolitan seats it has lost to the teals, according to Kenny. '[Liberal leader] Sussan Ley seems to be saying the right things now about steering the Liberal Party back to where the Australian people are – in other words, back to the mainstream centre,' he said. 'I think that represents some sort of recognition of what they've lost to the teals and to mainstream Australia, and therefore, by definition, you have to say it at least potentially presents a threat to the teals as well. Because the teals – that's the ground they're looking to occupy. But it's also the ground, broadly speaking, that Albanese is looking to occupy as well. 'It's pretty crowded territory, that middle ground – so if the Libs want back in there, they're going to have to do so with more than rhetoric.' Holmes à Court agreed. Even if the Liberals managed to put forward candidates that teal voters might, in theory, support, he argued the power of the movement now came from the social energy and sense of purpose surrounding it. 'One phrase I've heard many times over the last year is 'active hope',' he said. 'The first time I heard the phrase from a Sophie Scamps volunteer. The vollie explained, 'I could stay home and throw the remote every time Dutton comes on the telly or yell at my husband how Murdoch is destroying democracy, but volunteering gives me hope and the satisfaction that I did something meaningful when it mattered'.' 'The Liberal Party would have to change quite dramatically to inspire Australians to join – let alone volunteer.'


The National
21-04-2025
- Entertainment
- The National
Sout El Balad: A university student's documentary chronicles the rise of Jordan's hip-hop scene
It was supposed to be a routine university assignment. But when Jordanian film student Mohamed Al Takriti took his camera to a hip-hop event in Amman last summer, he stumbled upon an emerging scene. Rappers from various suburbs, regions and age groups gathered in ciphers, dropping rhymes that spoke to youth and community concerns. 'I remember there was this real energy and community feeling because there were people from all over the country – from nearly every province – just to spend some time together showing their skills and listening to each other,' he tells The National. 'Sometimes people say there is no hip-hop community in Jordan, but I saw it there that day and I realised that this was something that I had to document somehow.' The aspiring filmmaker, 23, from the American University of Madaba, directed and edited Sout El Balad – a self-released, 30-minute documentary exploring Jordan's nascent hip-hop community, now available on YouTube. With Al Takriti as a silent observer, the film weaves together energetic rap battles, intimate gigs and candid interviews with both emerging artists and seasoned voices – offering a glimpse into a subculture finding its voice. Al Takriti recalls that pre-production for Sout El Balad took three months, followed by a week of shooting and another month of editing. 'What really struck me was how diverse the scene was, and how clearly defined the generational lines were,' he says. 'You had teenagers creating amazing work and escapist lyrics, and then you had older artists – by that I mean those in their thirties and forties – who spoke more about their personal lives and broader social issues affecting youth in Jordan.' Both aspects are shown in interviews with Yousef, an emerging 17-year-old artist, and veteran performer Dodix. 'What people generally know about rap is that it is the voice of the streets, and some people take the wrong view of that and think the rapper is someone who causes trouble,' Yousef remarks at the onset of Sout El Balad. 'Amman is my biggest inspiration. I live here and rap about what happens here … but at the same time, I do it through a kind of persona that's not really me in real life.' As for Dodix, a more experienced performer, he notes how he uses his alter ego as a comfort blanket to dig deep into his emotions. "I'm the kind of person who talks about things I've been through, things I feel, and sometimes I drift into my imagination. I build a story in my head and talk about it, even if it never actually happened," he says. "Everyone in this world has a good side and a bad side. In a track, I can talk about my bad side – the part of me I don't want anyone to know." The documentary also highlights efforts to legitimise the scene, such as a hip-hop workshop held in Zarqa – Jordan's second most populous city after Amman – organised in collaboration with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, as well as freestyle events hosted by the artist collective Bellagons across the city 'These events provide some of the key themes for the documentary in that the music gives them a sense of hope and new ways to dream,' Al Takriti says. 'These freestyle sessions were amazing to see, especially the emotions behind them. People from older generations might be used to different kinds of music. They might not accept hip-hop. They don't understand it yet. But younger people are growing up with it – they've been listening to it since they were kids. So they're more open to it. It's growing.' That said, Jordanian hip-hop's growth into a genre to be reckoned with will take some time. Sout El Balad highlights how – due to a lack of industry support – the genre lacks the infrastructure to resonate more widely. 'There are not many opportunities for live shows at a high-profile level and the recording equipment is basic. There aren't a lot of recording studios available, and that will hopefully change as Jordan is such a culturally rich country,' Al Takriti says. 'They do deserve more support and maybe that will come at a later stage. These artists have the talent, but sometimes, when no one really believes in you, you need to believe in yourself first and prove yourself – because every artist faces difficulties.' Al Takriti hopes to continue exploring the genre beyond his degree, which he completes next year. He views Sout El Balad as a first draft, with future projects aiming to offer a deeper look into Jordan's hip-hop community – including a focus on female participation. He acknowledges that the documentary's main flaw is the lack of female representation, attributing it to their discomfort to appear on screen at this time. He's confident that will change as more independent Jordanian musicians and genres gain recognition – both at home and abroad. 'I want to continue documenting music in Jordan – not just rap, but the broader music culture,' he says. 'We need more music documentaries in the Arab world, because there are so many great stories out there to tell.' Sout El Balad is available for streaming on YouTube


Arab News
12-04-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Saudi Arabia, France chair UN briefing on Palestinian cause
RIYADH: The permanent representatives of Saudi Arabia and France to the UN, Abdulaziz Al-Wasel and Jerome Bonnafont, co-chaired a briefing for UN member and observer states at the UN headquarters in New York, the Saudi Press Agency reported on Saturday. The session 'discussed preparations for the upcoming high-level international conference on the peaceful resolution of the Palestinian cause and the implementation of the two-state solution, which is scheduled to be held in June under the joint chairmanship of Saudi Arabia and France,' the SPA stated. In his remarks, Al-Wasel stressed that the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is the 'cornerstone for achieving security and stability in the region,' adding that the Kingdom's support for the two-state solution is a 'longstanding and unwavering position.' Al-Wasel also announced the formation of several working groups to address key issues related to the peaceful settlement of the conflict. He called on member states to contribute their visions and proposals to support preparations for June's conference. Al-Wasel noted that the conference represents 'a formal and comprehensive track to enhance international efforts aimed at reaching a just and lasting resolution.' Most UN member states and observer delegations from regional blocs expressed full support for the efforts led by Saudi Arabia and France to organize the conference and reaffirmed their commitment to the two-state solution as the only internationally agreed-upon formula to resolve the conflict, stressing the need for tangible outcomes, including the recognition of a Palestinian state. They also voiced their rejection of land annexation and the forced displacement of Palestinians and underscored the importance of supporting the Palestinian government and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. 'Participating countries praised the Kingdom's leading role in supporting the Palestinian cause, its co-chairmanship of the conference, and its efforts to promote collective action and maintain the political and diplomatic momentum necessary for the conference's success,' the SPA reported.