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Nahar Net
6 days ago
- Politics
- Nahar Net
Can Lebanon chart path away from region conflicts after Hezbollah weakening?
Mireille Rebeiz, Dickinson College After a 12-day war launched by Israel and joined briefly by the United States, Iran has emerged weakened and vulnerable. And that has massive implications for another country in the region: Lebanon. Hezbollah, Tehran's main ally in Lebanon, had already lost a lot of its fighters, arsenal and popular support during its own war with Israel in October 2024. Now, Iran's government has little capacity to continue to finance, support and direct Hezbollah in Lebanon like it has done in the past. Compounding this shift away from Hezbollah's influence, the U.S. recently laid down terms for a deal that would see the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon in return for the total disarmament of the paramilitary group – a proposal seemingly backed by the Lebanese government. As an expert on Lebanese history and culture, I believe that these changing regional dynamics give the Lebanese state an opening to chart a more neutral orientation and extricate itself from neighboring conflicts that have long exacerbated the divided and fragile country's chronic problems. The shaping of modern Lebanon Ideologically, developments in Iran played a major role in shaping the circumstances in which Hezbollah, the Shiite Islamist political party and paramilitary group, was born. The Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 toppled the widely reviled and corrupt Western-backed monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza and led to the establishment of an Islamic republic. That revolution resonated among the young Shiite population in Lebanon, where a politically sectarian system that was intended to reflect a balanced representation of Muslims and Christians in the country had led to de facto discrimination against underrepresented groups. Since Lebanon's independence from France in 1943, most of the power has been concentrated in the hands of the Maronite Christians and Sunnis, leaving Shiite regions in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley lacking in development projects, social services and infrastructure. At the same time, Lebanon for decades had been irreparably changed by the politics of its powerful neighbor in Israel. In the course of founding its state in 1948, Israel forcibly removed over 750,000 Palestinians from their homeland – what Palestinians refer to as the Nakba, or "catastophe." Many fled to Lebanon, largely in the country's impoverished south and Bekaa Valley, which became a center of Palestinian resistance to Israel. In 1978, Israel invaded Lebanon to push Palestinian fighters away from its northern borders and put an end to rockets launched from south Lebanon. This fighting included the massacre of many civilians and the displacement of many Lebanese and Palestinians farther north. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon again with the stated purpose of eliminating the Palestinian Liberation Organization that had moved its headquarters to the country's south. An estimated 17,000 to 19,000 Lebanese and Palestinian civilians and armed personnel were killed during the conflict and the accompanying siege of Beirut. It was in this cauldron of regional and domestic sectarianism and state abandonment that Hezbollah formed as a paramilitary group in 1985, buoyed by Shiite mobilization following the Iranian revolution and Israel's invasion and occupation. Hezbollah's domestic spoiler status Over time and with the continuous support of Iran, Hezbollah become an important player in the Middle East, intervening in the Syrian civil war to support the Assad regime and supporting the Kata'ib Hezbollah, a dominant Iraqi pro-Iranian militia. In 2016, Secretary General of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah officially recognized Iran's role in funding their activities. With Tehran's support, Hezbollah was effectively able to operate as a state within a state while using its political clout to veto the vast majority of Lebanese parliamentary decisions it opposed. Amid that backdrop, Lebanon endured three long presidential vacuums: from November 2007 to May 2008; from May 2014 to October 2016; and finally from October 2022 to January 2024. Lebanon also witnessed a series of political assassinations from 2005 to 2021 that targeted politicians, academics, journalists and other figures who criticized Hezbollah. How the equation has changed It would be an understatement, then, to say that Hezbollah's and Iran's weakened positions as a result of their respective conflicts with Israel since late 2023 create major political ramifications for Lebanon. The most recent vacuum at the presidential level ended amid Hezbollah's military losses against Israel, with Lebanon electing the former army commander Joseph Aoun as president. Meanwhile, despite the threat of violence, the Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah, which consists of members of parliament and public figures, has increased its criticism of Hezbollah, openly denouncing its leadership and calling for Lebanon's political neutrality. These dissenting voices emerged cautiously during the Syrian civil war in 2011 and have grown after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the subsequent war on Gaza. During the latest Israel-Iran war, the Lebanese opposition felt emboldened to reiterate its call for neutrality. Enabled by the U.S's growing tutelage over Lebanon, some opposition figures have even called to normalize relations with Israel. These efforts to keep Lebanon out of the circle of violence are not negligible. In the past, they would have been attacked by Hezbollah and its supporters for what they would have considered high treason. Today, they represent new movement for how leaders are conceiving of politics domestically and diplomacy across the region. The critical regional context going forward As the political system cautiously changes, Hezbollah is facing unprecedented financial challenges and is unable to meet its fighters' needs and the promise to rebuild war-destroyed homes. And with its own serious internal challenges, Iran now has much less ability to meaningfully support Hezbollah from abroad. But none of that means that Hezbollah is defeated as a political and military force, particularly as ongoing skirmishes with Israel give the group an external pretext. The Hezbollah-Israel war ended with a ceasefire brokered by the United States and France on Nov. 27, 2024. However, Israel has been attacking south Lebanon on an almost daily basis, including three incidents over the course of 10 days from late June to early July that have left several people dead and more than a dozen wounded. Amid these violations, Hezbollah continues to refuse to disarm and still casts itself as the only defender of Lebanon's territorial integrity, again undermining the power of the Lebanese army and state. Lebanon's other neighbor, Syria, will also be critical. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 diminished Hezbollah's powers in the region and land access to Iraq and Iran. And the new Syrian leadership is not interested in supporting the Iranian Shiite ideology in the region but rather in empowering the Sunni community, one that was oppressed under the Assad dictatorship. While it's too early to say, border tensions might translate into sectarian violence in Lebanon or even potential land loss. Yet the new Syrian government also has a different approach toward its neighbors than its predecessor. After decades of hostility, Syria seems to be opting for diplomacy with Israel rather than war. It is unclear what these negotiations will entail and how they will impact Lebanon and Hezbollah. However, there are real concerns about new borders in the region. The U.S. as ever will play a major role in next steps in Lebanon and the region. The U.S. has been pressing Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, and the U.S Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack said he was "unbelievably satisfied" by Lebanon's response thus far. But so far, there has been no fundamental shift on that front. Meanwhile, despite the calls for neutrality and the U.S. pressure on Lebanon, it is hard to envision a new and neutral Lebanon without some serious changes in the region. Any future course for Lebanon will still first require progress toward peace in Gaza and ensuring Iran commits not to use Hezbollah as a proxy in the future. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here:
Arab Times
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab Times
Palestinian people's blood ... between Netanyahu and Hamas
A NEW holocaust, by all standards, is unfolding today in the Gaza Strip, but this time, the perpetrator is different. While the world was horrified by Hitler's attempted genocide during World War II, what Netanyahu and his extremist government are doing is even more horrific than what has been reported about the Nazis. Back then, the world, especially the victorious European powers, sought to atone for their guilt by accelerating the establishment of the Jewish state. This cause gained traction at a time when the Arabs lacked the power to defend their rights, as they were still reeling from the shock of Sykes-Picot and the calamities it had brought upon them. Conversely, the Arabs failed to capitalize on UN Resolution No. 181, which called for the partition of Palestine, marking the first stage of the conflict, at a time when the Zionist propaganda was still relatively weak. This situation remained unchanged during the subsequent wars Israel waged to expand its territory, culminating in the complete occupation of all Palestinian lands in June 1967. As usual, the Arabs exchanged accusations and failed to formulate a unified strategy for confrontation. They rejected all initiatives, starting with that of the late Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba, who advocated for the principle of 'take and demand.' Bourguiba was accused of treason and ostracized. The same fate befell the Rogers Initiative in 1970, also known as the Second Rogers Plan, which was approved by the then-Egyptian President Jamal Abdel Nasser but rejected by the leaders of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). On the other hand, Tel Aviv seized upon these events to its advantage, spreading the narrative that the Arabs do not seek peace. When King Fahd's initiative was approved at the Fez Summit, Israel immediately rejected it, just as it did with King Abdullah's initiative. Israel has never accepted, nor will it ever accept, the establishment of a self-governing Palestinian state as stipulated in the Camp David Accords. Today, 147 countries around the world have recognized the Palestinian state, with four others declaring their intention to do so. Yet, none of these countries offered anything substantial to remove the Israeli 'knife' from the Palestinians' throats. What they have provided are nothing more than political statements that can be retracted at any time. We must acknowledge that the Palestinian division has played a significant role in prolonging the conflict and complicating the path to a resolution. Each Palestinian faction sought to fulfill the interests of its external supporters, which is why many of these groups emerged in the 1970s and 1980s as terrorist organizations and hijacked civilian planes, incited violent events such as Black September, and positioned themselves as a de facto authority during the Lebanese Civil War. This history is well-known across the world. Therefore, when Sinwar and Hamas orchestrated the events of October 7, 2023, we saw Western leaders, led by former US President Joe Biden, flock to Netanyahu's residence. Today, the Israeli government in Tel Aviv resembles a 'vampire regime' that is clinging to unattainable utopian dreams. The establishment of a Palestinian state, with approximately 13 million Palestinians, while the Jewish population is only around 5.5 million, poses an existential threat to Israel. As a result, Israel has pursued policies aimed at either exterminating the population of the Gaza Strip or transferring them to another state, along with displacing the residents of the West Bank to Jordan. Through this, Israel aims to establish the Jewish state, as enshrined in the 2018 Knesset law, by exploiting the fragmentation and weakness of the Arabs, and benefiting from Western support. Israel continues to advance its goals, while the Arabs remain divided, with their Arab League reduced to issuing mere statements of concern and condemnation. Based on the above, the proposed solutions for resolving the Palestinian issue seem like acts of surrender, as there is no unified vision that can convince the world that we, the Arabs, genuinely seek peace. Moreover, there is a lack of will to form a cohesive Arab pressure group. This cycle will continue. Netanyahu will leave, but another like him will take his place to carry on the violence. A new Yahya Sinwar will rise, and Hamas will continue to exploit the Palestinian cause, while innocent Palestinian civilians will continue to be slaughtered daily.
New York Post
06-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
Senate Republicans push to defund entities that grant Palestinian Liberation Organization special privileges
WASHINGTON — A new bill by Senate Republicans would cut funding to the United Nations — and other international organizations — that offer the Palestinian Liberation Organization special privileges, according to text of the bill exclusively shared with The Post. The No Official Palestine Entry Act of 2025 would tighten a US law that bars subsidizing organizations that grant the representative body of Palestinian people the same standing as member UN states. It would extend it to any international organization that gives the PLO 'any status, rights or privileges beyond observer status.' Advertisement The Post has exclusively learned that a new bill proposed by Senate Republicans would cut funding to the United Nations. PPO/AFP via Getty Images 'Once created to be a bastion of peace and security in the world, the United Nations is now a seat of antisemitism and in desperate need of reform,' Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch (R-Idaho) said. 'Israel is one of America's greatest allies and we cannot tolerate or fund any anti-Israel bias or favoritism for the Palestinian Liberation Organization at the UN,' he added. Advertisement The bill, introduced Tuesday morning by the SFRC, comes a week after Risch introduced the Stand With Israel Act, which would slash funding to UN agencies that downgrade or restrict the participation of the Jewish State. 'These bills will ensure that America has Israel's back when it matters most,' Risch said. Other international organizations will also lose funding, including the Palestinian Liberation Organization. AFP via Getty Images It also comes a day after Israel announced it would dramatically ramp up its military offensive against Hamas by seizing the whole of Gaza, which the terrorist group governed. Advertisement The bill is sponsored by Risch, Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Lindsey Graham and and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Ted Cruz and John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Pete Ricketts and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) It also has support in the House, with Reps. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), Michael McCaul and Randy Weber (R-Texas), Claudia Tenney and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Maria Salazar (R-Fla), Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Rudy Yakym and Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) co-sponsoring. The bill specifically notes that the principal of blocking the PA's recognition beyond an observer status 'shall not be construed to apply to Taiwan,' which has a similar experience of being in recognition limbo in international organizations.
Al Jazeera
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Why the Palestinian Authority's Abbas is under pressure to pick a successor
The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), under pressure to appoint a second-in-command to its ageing leader, Mahmoud Abbas, created a vice president position after meeting with senior officials on April 24. Abbas, who is also president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), promised during an emergency Arab summit in early March that the position would be created. Yet it remains unclear who will eventually fill the post. The aim is to prevent a power struggle after Abbas vacates his post – a scenario that Israel could exploit to cause the collapse of the PA, fully annexe the occupied West Bank and ethnically cleanse Gaza, experts told Al Jazeera. Yet Dianna Buttu, a former legal adviser to the PLO, believes creating a vice president post in the PA will not avert a power struggle once Abbas is gone – rather, it could exacerbate conflict. 'The more fragmented the PA becomes, the more it will create a power vacuum … and that vacuum will be filled by external actors and mainly by the Americans and Israelis,' she warned. Abbas, 89, assumed control of the PLO and PA after Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died in November 2004 and has ruled without a popular mandate since dissolving parliament in 2007. His Fatah party dominates the PA and PLO. The long-defunct parliament has faded away, and critics have slammed Abbas for seeming to undermine attempts to hold elections that could revive it. In the absence of parliament, the PLO controls the succession, a task Abbas has postponed, including by decreeing last year that Rawhi Fattouh, head of the Palestinian National Council, would become interim president if the position became vacant suddenly until elections are held. 'Abbas has put this off out of fear that if he brought anyone forward, then they would be a rival,' said Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. The PA was created by the Oslo Peace Accords, signed by Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1993 and 1995. Tasked with governing the West Bank and Gaza until a Palestinian state was created alongside Israel, the PA lost credibility among Palestinians as Israel's occupation became more violent and oppressive, and land grabs for Israeli settlements continued. Since Oslo, the population of settlements, illegal under international law, built on Palestinian land has risen from about 200,000 to more than 750,000. In 2007, a violent split with Hamas in Gaza constrained the PA's authority to the parts of the occupied West Bank that it had some limited control over. The PA did manage to become the de facto Palestinian representative on the international stage, replacing the PLO. But at home, Abbas's popularity slipped as people's suffering increased and the PA continued its security coordination with Israel, which was outlined in the Oslo Accords. The PA is also seen to have failed to protect Palestinians from Israeli troops and settlers while using its authority to crack down on civil activists and opponents. This has resulted in a situation in which whoever he appoints, 'Abbas's handpicked successor probably won't win people over', Elgindy told Al Jazeera. The name suggested most often is Abbas's close confidant and secretary-general of the PLO Executive Committee, Hussein al-Sheikh. Al-Sheikh also heads the PA's General Authority for Civil Affairs, which issues the Israeli-approved permits that enable a few Palestinians to navigate the movement restrictions Israel has implemented in the occupied West Bank. Human rights groups and the International Court of Justice – the highest legal body in the world – see Israel's movement restrictions against Palestinians as apartheid. Sheikh's long-standing relationship with the Israeli authorities has led critics to accuse him of acting as a liaison for the occupation. 'Nobody likes him [among Palestinians],' said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs. '[Al-Sheikh] is tainted by his relationship to Israel and perceptions [that he is embroiled in] massive corruption.' The pressure on Abbas regarding succession has ebbed and flowed over the years, intensifying over recent months as Arab states push him to appoint a successor to prevent the PA from dissolving into chaos, analysts told Al Jazeera. Egypt is particularly eager to ensure succession, according to Rahman. In March, Egypt called and hosted an Arab League summit, during which it unveiled its reconstruction plan for Gaza to counter United States President Donald Trump's proposal to ethnically cleanse Gaza and turn it into a 'Middle East Riviera'. Egypt was mentioned as one of the countries where Palestinians could be 'moved to', an idea it firmly rejected and countered with its reconstruction plan. The proposal included creating a Palestinian technocratic administration, supervised by the PA, to oversee the reconstruction of the devastated enclave without displacing anyone. The path to PA administration of Gaza is not at all clear, however, as both Hamas and Israel object to it – Hamas because it administers Gaza currently, while Israel has panned the PA as ineffective. Abbas appears to have gone on the offensive, delivering angry broadsides against Hamas during the meetings and blaming the group for allowing the continuation of Israel's genocide in Gaza by not handing over captives and disarming. However, many Arab states blame Abbas for failing to reconcile his Fatah faction with Hamas, making them eager to see a change of guard in the PA, according to Tahani Mustafa, an expert on Palestinian internal politics with the International Crisis Group Since 2007, Fatah and Hamas have signed several agreements to heal their divisions after the fighting that split the Palestinian national movement. 'I think there has been a lot of frustration [among Arab states] that [Abbas] has been more of a spoiler and obstacle to trying to get a united Palestinian front, which has given Israel a pretext to continue doing what it has been doing in Gaza,' Mustafa told Al Jazeera. Instead of creating a new political post, Buttu believes Abbas should hold elections for Fatah, the PLO and the PA. The last time voting was held was just before the conflict between Hamas and Fatah in 2006. Hamas won a huge majority in those legislative elections. The choice to create a new vice president post, she fears, won't solve the legitimacy crisis or power vacuum once Abbas is gone, given what she described as Abbas's lack of political will to revive Palestinian institutions. 'In typical fashion, Abbas is doing the bare minimum to get [Arab states] off his back,' she told Al Jazeera. Elections, she acknowledged, could prove technically difficult due to Israel's devastating war and genocide in Gaza as well as its violence and movement restrictions in the West Bank. However, she said Palestinians could still find ways to vote, perhaps through an online portal or process. 'Inside Fatah itself, there is a lot of pushback on this appointment of a vice president. They are all saying there should be elections instead,' Buttu told Al Jazeera. '[Abbas] is putting a Band-Aid on a wound so open that it requires surgery,' she said.
Asharq Al-Awsat
14-04-2025
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
50 Years after Lebanon's Civil War Began, a Bullet-riddled Bus Stands as a Reminder
It was an ordinary day in Beirut. In one part of Lebanon's capital, a church was inaugurated, with the leader of the Christian Kataeb party there. In another, Palestinian factions held a military parade. Kataeb and Palestinians had clashed, again, that morning. What happened next on April 13, 1975, would change the course of Lebanon, plunging it into 15 years of civil war that would kill about 150,000 people, leave 17,000 missing and lead to foreign intervention. Beirut became synonymous with snipers, kidnappings and car bombs. Lebanon has never fully grappled with the war's legacy, and in many ways it has never fully recovered, 50 years later. The government on Sunday marked the anniversary with a small ceremony and minute of silence, a rare official acknowledgement of the legacy of the conflict. The massacre Unrest had been brewing. Palestinian militants had begun launching attacks against Israel from Lebanese territory. Leftist groups and many Muslims in Lebanon sympathized with the Palestinian cause. Christians and some other groups saw the Palestinian militants as a threat. At the time, Mohammad Othman was 16, a Palestinian refugee in the Tel al-Zaatar camp east of Beirut. Three buses had left camp that morning, carrying students like him as well as militants from a coalition of hardline factions that had broken away from the Palestinian Liberation Organization. They passed through the Ein Rummaneh neighborhood without incident and joined the military parade. The buses were supposed to return together, but some participants were tired after marching and wanted to go back early. They hired a small bus from the street, Othman said. Thirty-three people packed in. They were unaware that earlier that day, small clashes had broken out between Palestinians and Kataeb Party members guarding the church in Ein Rummaneh. A bodyguard for party leader Pierre Gemayel had been killed. Suddenly the road was blocked, and gunmen began shooting at the bus 'from all sides,' Othman recalled. Some passengers had guns they had carried in the parade, Othman said, but they were unable to draw them quickly in the crowded bus. A camp neighbor fell dead on top of him. The man's 9-year-old son was also killed. Othman was shot in the shoulder. 'The shooting didn't stop for about 45 minutes until they thought everyone was dead,' he said. Othman said paramedics who eventually arrived had a confrontation with armed men who tried to stop them from evacuating him, The Associated Press said. Twenty-two people were killed. Conflicting narratives Some Lebanese say the men who attacked the bus were responding to an assassination attempt against Gemayel by Palestinian militants. Others say the Kataeb had set up an ambush intended to spark a wider conflict. Marwan Chahine, a Lebanese-French journalist who wrote a book about the events of April 13, 1975, said he believes both narratives are wrong. Chahine said he found no evidence of an attempt to kill Gemayel, who had left the church by the time his bodyguard was shot. And he said the attack on the bus appeared to be more a matter of trigger-happy young men at a checkpoint than a 'planned operation.' There had been past confrontations, "but I think this one took this proportion because it arrived after many others and at a point when the authority of the state was very weak,' Chahine said. The Lebanese army had largely ceded control to militias, and it did not respond to the events in Ein Rummaneh that day. The armed Palestinian factions had been increasingly prominent in Lebanon after the PLO was driven out of Jordan in 1970, and Lebanese Christians had also increasingly armed themselves. 'The Kataeb would say that the Palestinians were a state within a state,' Chahine said. 'But the reality was, you had two states in a state. Nobody was following any rules." Selim Sayegh, a member of parliament with the Kataeb Party who was 14 and living in Ein Rummaneh when the fighting started, said he believes war had been inevitable since the Lebanese army backed down from an attempt to take control of Palestinian camps two years earlier. Sayegh said men at the checkpoint that day saw a bus full of Palestinians with 'weapons apparent' and "thought that is the second wave of the operation' that started with the killing of Gemayel's bodyguard. The war unfolded quickly from there. Alliances shifted. New factions formed. Israel and Syria occupied parts of the country. The United States intervened, and the US embassy and Marine barracks were targeted by bombings. Beirut was divided between Christian and Muslim sectors. In response to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, a Shiite militant group was formed in the early 1980s with Iranian backing: Hezbollah. It would grow to be arguably the most powerful armed non-state group in the region. Hezbollah was the only militant group allowed to keep its weapons after Lebanon's civil war, given special status as a 'resistance force' because Israel was still in southern Lebanon. After the group was badly weakened last year in a war with Israel that ended with a ceasefire, there has been increasing pressure for it to disarm. The survivors Othman said he became a fighter after the war started because 'there were no longer schools or anything else to do.' Later he would disarm and became a pharmacist. He remembers being bewildered when a peace accord in 1989 ushered in the end of civil war: 'All this war and bombing, and in the end they make some deals and it's all over.' Of the 10 others who survived the bus attack, he said, three were killed a year later when Christian militias attacked the Tel al-Zaatar camp. Another was killed in a 1981 bombing at the Iraqi embassy. A couple died of natural causes, one lives in Germany, and he has lost track of the others. The bus has also survived, as a reminder. Ahead of the 50th anniversary of the attack, it was towed from storage on a farm to the private Nabu Museum in Heri, north of Beirut. Visitors took photos with it and peered into bullet holes in its rusted sides. Ghida Margie Fakih, a museum spokesperson, said the bus will remain on display indefinitely as a 'wake-up call' to remind Lebanese not to go down the path of conflict again. The bus 'changed the whole history in Lebanon and took us somewhere that nobody wanted to go,' she said.
