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Montreal Gazette
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Montreal Gazette
Opinion: Legault should consider stepping down for the CAQ's own good
'It makes me want to fight.' That's how Premier François Legault reacted to last week's Pallas Data poll, which showed his party trailing both the Parti Québécois and the Liberals following Pablo Rodriguez's election as leader of the Quebec Liberal Party. The Coalition Avenir Québec is now polling at just 15 per cent provincewide. The situation is so disastrous that Legault's party is now virtually tied with Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec, which stands at 14 per cent. And the downward trend has persisted for over a year now; if an election were held today, the CAQ could be completely wiped out, with some projections suggesting it might not be able to win even a single seat. That puts all 86 of the party's MNAs — including Legault himself — at serious risk of losing their jobs by the fall of 2026. Turning this around would require a drastic shift. Yet so far, Legault insists he has no intention of changing his strategy. With the next general election scheduled for a year and a half from now — unless Legault surprises everyone by calling an early vote — some battles may still be winnable, but others might simply not be worth fighting. This isn't just about Legault's future as premier. It's also a matter of survival for the party he founded 14 years ago. Either the CAQ goes down with him, or Legault finds the wisdom and selflessness to step aside and give someone else a chance to turn things around. After five decades of alternating Liberal and PQ governments, Legault achieved what many thought impossible in Quebec politics: proving that a viable 'third way' can exist. That could be his lasting legacy — unless he lets it sink with him in the next election. As he takes time to rest this summer, Legault should reflect on how he wants his political journey to end. After seven years in power, it's only natural for any politician to feel fatigue — and equally normal for voters to seek change. The premier acknowledged it himself last week: Quebecers are deeply disappointed — with the economy, the management of public finances, and the lack of improvement in public services despite major reforms, among other issues. Legault now finds himself in a situation not unlike Justin Trudeau's about a year ago: a leader trying to cling to his sinking ship, with a caucus that may be starting to worry internally over the prospect of a historic defeat. In Trudeau's case, his inner circle ultimately panicked a few months later and forced him out, replacing him with Mark Carney. The rest is history. A similar fate may await Legault if poll numbers don't improve by the end of this fall. And the clock is ticking — it's nearly midnight already. If close allies start publicly calling for his resignation, Legault could face the humiliation of being pushed aside by the very party he built and led to power. That would be a sad ending. In politics, knowing when to leave is an art. Legault should avoid the trap that has claimed so many leaders before him who tried to remain in power past their expiry date, damaging their reputation and legacy in the process. In 2019, Legault promised to serve only two terms. Maybe it's time to consider honouring that commitment. As a devoted hockey fan, the premier should know that too often, great players stay in the game far too long. Take Chris Chelios, for example, who was still in the NHL at age 48. Despite an incredible career, he was rarely used in his final seasons and became more of a liability than an asset for his team. If I were one of Legault's top advisers today, I'd tell him: Don't make a Chris Chelios of yourself, Mr. Legault.
Telegraph
18-02-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Canada's Conservatives are the latest losers from the return of Donald Trump
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have trailed Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in the polls for over two years. When Poilievre was elected Conservative leader on Sept 10 2022, he immediately took the lead and moved ahead by double digits later that month. The gap continued to widen to 20 points or more. Until now. According to EKOS, the Conservative lead was down to just three points (35.7-32.7 per cent) on Jan 29, rising to five points on Feb 15. Pallas Data had them leading by only 37 to 31 on Feb 6. Nanos suggested that the gap was 38 to 30 per cent on Feb 7. To be fair, the polls are all over the place. Innovative Research pointed to a 13-point Conservative lead (40-27 per cent) on Feb 7, while Abacus Data put them ahead by 19 points (46-27 per cent) on Feb 13. But something has clearly shifted. Canadians could be reconsidering their options with a new election looming. Trudeau will soon be political history, and voters may be taking another look at the Liberals as they choose a new leader. But the biggest factor is surely Donald Trump. Canadians are furious about the president's threat of imposing 25 per cent tariffs on their products. Although he granted a 30-day reprieve on Feb 3, the people of Canada have vented their frustrations ever since. Trudeau's retaliatory plan of a tariff-for-tariff approach with the US is supported by most of the provincial premiers. Canadians have threatened to stop travelling to the US, have said they will remove the likes of Amazon and Netflix from their lives, and have jeered the US national anthem at sports matches. This terse political environment has given Liberal MPs an opportunity: they are outrageously suggesting that Trump and Poilievre are two sides of the same political coin. It's not a new strategy. Poilievre was accused of using 'Trump-type tactics' by Liberal MP Jennifer O'Connell in 2023. Trudeau, when asked by reporters that same year about Poilievre's accusations of Canada being broken under his leadership, responded, 'They tried that down in the United States. Someone who said he was going to fix everything and fed into anger and disconnect, frustration by so many people in the United States. It didn't leave them any better off.' But this comparison is as ridiculous now as it was then. Poilievre and Trump may both use populist language and creative messaging techniques, but they have vastly different political ideologies, personalities and policies. The former is very much a mainstream conservative, advocating small government, low taxes, private enterprise and free markets. Trump may share those stances, but he is also an economic nationalist who has embraced tariffs as a tool of geopolitical and trade policy, while seeking to rip up old certainties as part of his plan to disrupt the US establishment. There was never any question that the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was going to narrow when Trudeau announced his resignation. I and others have long suggested that the polls were going to get closer when the Liberals finally removed their political albatross. But Poilievre is now the unwitting victim of a smear campaign by a rudderless Liberal party, which is selling an imaginary connection between their main political rival and an unconventional US president. Voters are likely to be disappointed, however, if they end up deciding that their best choice for handling Trump is not a principled conservative like Poilievre, but the likes of Mark Carney. They can't say they weren't warned.
