30-06-2025
New anti-Paetongtarn group draws scrutiny
Political observers are closely watching the trajectory of the "United Front to Defend Thai Sovereignty", a new group that has emerged as a vocal critic of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Its future remains uncertain following a large protest at Bangkok's Victory Monument on Saturday, which exceeded expectations in turnout.
The peaceful demonstration demanded Ms Paetongtarn's resignation amid growing dissatisfaction with her leadership, prompting speculation about whether further protests will follow.
The rally took place amid rising political tensions, with the ruling coalition facing internal rifts and a decline in public confidence.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political and security analyst, said the protest was notable for uniting figures from former rival groups, including red shirts, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), aka yellow shirts, and the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), as well as academics and some senators.
"It was the largest such convergence in years," he said, particularly surprising given the red shirts' traditional alignment with the ruling party.
However, Mr Panitan noted the protest's unity was superficial, as only a few prominent figures from each group took part, and ideological divisions remained.
He estimated around 10,000 attendees, a significant number given the lack of political party backing. Opposition parties have so far kept their distance.
Mr Panitan stressed the importance of monitoring unaffiliated citizens and online platforms, which have played a major role in spreading the protest's message. He also pointed to the potential influence of upcoming judicial rulings on the PM's status, expected after July 1, in shaping public sentiment.
The political and security analyst advised Ms Paetongtarn to engage more actively with undecided citizens rather than relying on vague affirmations of protest rights.
"Acknowledging the right to protest isn't a strategy. It doesn't address the causes of dissatisfaction," Mr Panitan said.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, said the rally's scale surprised the government, police, and ruling Pheu Thai Party. Authorities had expected fewer than 3,000 attendees.
He attributed the protest's momentum to widespread discontent over the cabinet formation process, legal double standards, especially Thaksin Shinawatra's treatment while detained, and a lack of transparency in public institutions. The audio clip of a conversation between Ms Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, as well as the border dispute and illegal casinos, added to the outrage.
Mr Olarn criticised some of the protest's main stands for appearing to seek personal political redemption, mistaking the crowd's presence as support for them.
He pointed to PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul's on-stage remarks suggesting a coup as especially damaging.
"Such rhetoric risks alienating the crowd and discrediting the protest," he warned, adding that many participants are wary of any move that could justify military intervention.
Mr Sondhi's comments, Mr Olarn argued, created a vulnerability the government could exploit.
By invoking the possibility of a coup, Mr Sondhi inadvertently positioned Pheu Thai as a defender of constitutional governance. Even groups critical of the government may back it temporarily to prevent another military takeover.
"It was a strategic error," Mr Olarn concluded.
Another legal scholar, Komsan Pohkong, emphasised that the demonstration reflected informed civic engagement.
"This wasn't mob rule. These participants were concerned, largely middle-class citizens expressing political dissatisfaction in an organised way."
He warned against dismissing their concerns, particularly around national sovereignty.
"People may tolerate poor governance, but not perceived concessions on sovereignty."
Mr Komsan said the rally's scale resembles early stages of past movements, like the PDRC and 2010 red-shirt protests, suggesting the potential for further escalation.
"If ignored, this could become a much larger movement."
He also noted the lingering controversy over the Shinawatra family's influence.
