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CNN
13-07-2025
- Climate
- CNN
Texas NWS office had no warning coordination meteorologist during the flood. Did it make a difference?
On the night the deadly floodwaters raged down the Guadalupe River in Texas, the National Weather Service forecast office in Austin/San Antonio was missing a key leader of its team: the warning coordination meteorologist, who had retired just a few months prior. Along with about 400 other experts at the NWS, the WCM at that office, Paul Yura, took an early retirement offer in April, according to an official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the agency. Yura could not be reached for comment. That early retirement option, also given to employees at other parts of NOAA and across the government, was part of the Department of Government Efficiency-related budget cuts designed to shrink the size of the federal government. The missing WCM is coming under scrutiny in the wake of the tragedy that has killed more than 120 people because they are the meteorologist responsible for interacting with emergency managers and public officials to ensure they know how to handle a severe weather event, should one occur. Much of their work takes place before extreme weather hits, with tabletop simulations, relationship building exercises and other activities designed to foster close working relationships between weather forecasters, emergency managers and local leaders. It is 'hard to tell how much of an impact' the WCM's absence had that night, since the office had five staff members on duty, compared to the typical staffing level of two at that time of night, and they were communicating with emergency managers as the flood threat ramped up, the NOAA official told CNN. The official, along with other experts who spoke to CNN, said they did not think the vacancy affected the forecast. They noted the approximately three hours of warning lead time provided to many communities along the Guadalupe River, starting when the first flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. CT on July 4. 'You can do a lot in three hours,' the official said, referring to taking flood safety measures. The Trump administration has targeted the NWS, along with NOAA overall, for steep staff reductions since the start of the president's second term. The NWS had about 4,400 staff members in January and this has fallen to about 3,700 as of this past week, according to the NOAA official. Some NWS offices are now so poorly staffed, they are no longer operating 24/7 and are not launching weather balloons — a vital source of weather data — at their typical cadence of twice a day. The NWS did recently receive an exemption to the federal hiring freeze to bring on about 125 meteorologists, but it won't make up for all the employees lost through early retirements, firings and other DOGE-related cuts. While it appears these cuts did not degrade the Weather Service's response in Texas, experts are still concerned as the peak of hurricane season is looming. The agency has not yet begun to hire those 125 roles and this season is expected to be another above-average one. Brian LaMarre, a former meteorologist-in-charge at the NWS' Tampa office, who also served as a WCM in Lubbock, Texas, earlier in his career, told CNN any mistakes that led to so many lost lives in this disaster were made once the warnings left the NWS forecast office in New Braunfels, Texas. In his view, they were not a result of the missing WCM position. 'The break was outside of the weather service, and that's always been the biggest nightmare,' he said. 'Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires, whatever it is when we issue a warning, we could get several hours (of lead time), just like San Antonio did. It was a three-hour lead time… and no one was acting,' he said. 'It became a dissemination challenge for people that didn't have a phone in their hand, or weren't woken up by a siren, which they don't have on the river,' LaMarre added. Much of the WCM's role is to work with the emergency management community and public officials well in advance of any severe weather, to conduct exercises and establish communications channels, for example. It's unclear if those activities stopped once Yura left in April. Even if they did, there was only a gap of a few months before the flooding hit. That is not enough time for local emergency managers to forget all of their extreme weather knowledge or miss many vital trainings, LaMarre stated. Plus, he said, others in the forecast office who aspired to serve as WCM would likely have taken over some of Yura's responsibilities. And notably, the meteorologist-in-charge of the Austin/San Antonio office is a former WCM as well, according to Erica Grow Cei, a spokesperson for the NWS. LaMarre said the focus of the investigation into what went so horribly wrong should largely be on the so-called 'last mile' problem of weather forecasting: communicating warnings to the people who need to receive them and making sure they act on them. That is well within the purview of the WCM, but other meteorologists share these responsibilities, along with local officials. For its part, NOAA touted the accuracy of its forecasts and noted its flash flood warnings were sent via tone alerts to cell phones in the areas affected, as well as to NOAA weather radios. 'The National Weather Service's Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, TX had additional staff on duty during the catastrophic flooding event in Texas's Hill Country during the July 4 holiday weekend,' Cei said in a statement. 'Both offices, in addition to the West Gulf River Forecast Center, had extra personnel on the night of Thursday, July 3 into the day on Friday, July 4. All forecasts and warnings were issued in a timely manner.' 'Additionally, these offices were able to provide decision support services to local partners, including those in the emergency management community,' she said. 'The NWS remains dedicated to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.'
New York Times
09-07-2025
- Climate
- New York Times
A Fact About the Floods the Government Doesn't Seem Eager to Discuss
When a reporter demanded to know why the summer camps along the Guadalupe River weren't evacuated before its waters reached their deadly peak on July 4, Rob Kelly, the highest-ranking local official, had a simple answer: 'No one knew this kind of flood was coming.' Why not? Kerr County, Texas, had lots of history to go on — as Judge Kelly went on to explain: 'We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States.' The National Weather Service had even brought in extra staff that night. Most important, the service had issued three increasingly dire warnings early that morning — at 1:14 a.m., 4:03 a.m. and 6:06 a.m. What Kelly didn't mention, but which has since become well known, is that the Weather Service employee whose job it was to make sure those warnings got traction — Paul Yura, the long-serving meteorologist in charge of 'warning coordination' — had recently taken an unplanned early retirement amid cuts pushed by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. He was not replaced. To a Washington bean counter, his loss might have looked like one tiny but welcome subtraction in a giant spreadsheet, but not in a region so prone to these perilous events that it's known as Flash Flood Alley. Hundreds of kids at summer camps slept in cabins along the river. The plan was for folks at the upstream summer camps to send word to the downstream camps if floodwaters got scary. But if even the highest official in the county wasn't on high alert, how were the camp counselors supposed to understand the danger — or, in an area without reliable cellphone coverage, to act on it? Few would dispute that the federal bureaucracy was, and still is, in need of reform. But instead of a targeted, smart and strategic intervention, DOGE brought a chain saw to vital government services, pushing large, indiscriminate cuts with little consideration for the expertise that longtime employees offered or the importance of the functions they performed. It's not hard to understand why many experienced civil servants like Yura, especially those with private sector options, would leave under these conditions. In fact it's remarkable any of them stayed. And of course what happened at the National Weather Service happened across a wide array of federal agencies. Not all of the damage will be this obvious, at least not at first. Much of it will be a matter of death by a thousand cuts — systems and structures that weaken and are not repaired, important but less visible jobs going undone, services that we all took for granted slowing down and even sputtering to a halt. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Reuters
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Reuters
Schumer wants probe of National Weather Service response in Texas
WASHINGTON, July 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate's top Democrat on Monday asked a government watchdog to investigate whether cuts at the National Weather Service affected the forecasting agency's response to catastrophic and deadly flooding in Central Texas. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer asked the Department of Commerce's acting inspector general Monday to probe whether staffing vacancies at the NWS's San Antonio office contributed to "delays, gaps, or diminished accuracy" in forecasting the flooding. He asked the watchdog to scrutinize the office's communications with Kerr County officials. The NWS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Schumer's letter. It defended its forecasting and emergency management in a statement Monday, adding that it assigned extra forecasters to the San Antonio and San Angelo offices over the holiday weekend. A top three leadership role at the NWS's San Antonio office has been vacant since earlier this year after Paul Yura, the U.S. forecasting agency's warning coordination meteorologist, opens new tab for San Antonio, accepted an offer from the Trump administration to retire. Yura's role was to form relationships with local emergency managers and officials, with the goal of building trust in the community before disaster strikes. DOGE, the Trump administration's cost-cutting effort, has been pushing the NWS to cut jobs. It gave hundreds of employees the option, opens new tab to retire early, rather than face potential dismissal. The NWS's San Antonio office is responsible for forecasting the area's weather, collecting climate data and warning the public about dangerous conditions. Texas officials criticized the NWS over the weekend, arguing it failed to warn the public about impending danger. The office sent a stream of flash flood warnings on Thursday and Friday across the digital and radio services it uses to communicate with public safety professionals, according to alert records. The messages grew increasingly urgent in the early morning hours on Friday. The team sent an emergency text message to area cell phones at about 1:14 a.m., calling it a "dangerous and life-threatening situation." Phones must have reception or be near a cell tower to receive that message, said Antwane Johnson, former director of FEMA's public alert team. Mobile coverage is spotty in areas around the Guadalupe River, according to Federal Communications Commission records last updated in December. "Even though those messages were issued, it does not mean it got to the people who needed them," said Erik Nielsen, who studies extreme rain at Texas A&M University. The death toll from the catastrophic floods reached at least 78 on Sunday, including at least 28 children. It is not clear whether the opening for a warning coordination meteorologist contributed to NWS's forecasting and alerts. Jon Zeitler, the office's science and operations officer, also left NWS's San Antonio office around the same time in April, according to his LinkedIn profile. Zeitler was responsible for training new hires. Reuters could not confirm why he exited. The office's other management roles are filled, according to its website, opens new tab. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday was asked by reporters about whether federal government cuts hobbled the disaster response or left key job vacancies at the NWS under Trump's oversight. "They didn't," Trump told reporters prior to boarding Air Force One in Morristown, New Jersey.
Yahoo
21-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Head of local weather warnings takes early retirement as NOAA cuts continue
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Paul Yura, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office, has announced he has taken the early retirement offer as part of NOAA's recent cuts to personnel and budget. Yura has over 32 years experience, spending more than half of his career at the NWS Austin/San Antonio office. In the process, he gained tremendous experience understanding local weather patterns while ensuring timely warnings get disseminated to the public in a multitude of ways. The warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) is a senior role at a local NWS office. According to NOAA, 'The WCM coordinates the warning function of the office with the outside world. This would include heading the Skywarn Program, conducting spotter training and being a voice to the local media for the office.' Only the 'meteorologist in charge' (MIC) has a higher position within a local office. Yura's retirement is part of an early retirement package offered to National Weather Service employees as the Trump Administration works to slash the budget at NWS and the larger NOAA organization. In an e-mailed message to media partners, Yura said, 'I cannot have asked for a more rewarding career that has spanned over 32 years, with over half of that career right here in South Central Texas as the WCM for the NWS Austin-San Antonio office. And while I am sad that it is ending a few years earlier than I had planned, the friendships and relationships that I have made while being your WCM cannot be replaced.' As for a replacement to the WCM, the current hiring freeze, as mentioned by Yura in his message, may make filling that role more challenging. This comes less than a week after several Regional Climate Center's across the county had their funding 'lapse' with no certainty of it returning. Funding 'lapse' cuts Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M The importance of experience in the WCM role cannot be understated. Ensuring ample and timely warning to the Central Texas counties covered by NWS Austin/San Antonio is among the chief responsibilities. Yura's final date of employment, April 30, comes just before severe weather season in Central Texas typically peaks in the month of May. According to the NWS Austin/San Antonio website, the office is already short two meteorologist positions currently listed as vacant. The positions of 'lead meteorologist' and 'meteorologist' remain open. Separately, NWS Austin/San Antonio have a vacant 'electronics technician' position. In addition to Yura, Science Operations Officer Jon Zeitler is also retiring on April 30, but it is not an early retirement as part of NOAA personnel cuts. Zeitler has worked at NWS Austin/San Antonio for the past two decades and across all types of impactful severe weather and winter weather events in this area. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
