Latest news with #PavloGonchar
Forbes
11-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What To Expect From Alcoa's Q2?
Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. Consensus earnings are estimated to be approximately $0.51 per share, while revenues are projected to increase by nearly 2% compared to the same quarter last year. The company's results expectations are influenced by tariff disruptions, mixed performance among business units, and uncertain aluminum demand—slightly offset by sturdy alumina margins and effective internal cost management. The Alumina segment is anticipated to remain robust, benefiting from steady demand and advantageous cost structures. Meanwhile, the Aluminum segment faces pressure from elevated costs and weakness in global pricing, particularly affected by the tariff burden. The company has a current market capitalization of $7.9 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months reached $13 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 billion in operating profits and net income of $860 million. That being said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio provides an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. View earnings reaction history of all stocks Alcoa's Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below. 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky strategy (though not applicable if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a more stable experience than investing in an individual stock like Alcoa, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception. Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios See all Trefis Price Estimates
Forbes
09-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Down 30%, What's Next For BG Stock?
UKRAINE - 2021/05/04: In this Photo illustration a Bunge logo of Bunge Limited food company is seen ... More on a smartphone and a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Bunge Global (NYSE: BG), a major player in agribusiness and food, has experienced a 32% decline in its stock over the last year, while the S&P 500 has increased by 12% during the same timeframe. The main cause: a significant drop in global crop prices. An oversupply of corn, soybeans, and wheat has driven commodity prices down to multi-year lows, squeezing margins throughout Bunge's core processing operations. In Q1 2025, Bunge revealed a 40% year-over-year decrease in adjusted earnings, leading to a downward adjustment in its full-year EPS prediction to $7.75. Even with efforts to diversify and expand through strategic initiatives like the Viterra merger, Bunge continues to be significantly susceptible to cyclical agricultural market fluctuations. Separately, see MSFT Stock to $1000? At the current price of $75, Bunge Global seems attractively priced, trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of merely 0.2 in comparison to 3.1 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 against the broader market's 26.9. Nevertheless, low valuation multiples by themselves do not render a stock appealing. When evaluated across four essential dimensions: Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience, Bunge underperforms, indicating that the discounted valuation highlights deeper operational and structural shortcomings. That said, if you're looking for growth with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns exceeding 91% since its inception. How Have Bunge Global's Revenues Grown Over Recent Years? Bunge Global's Revenues have significantly dropped in recent years. • Bunge Global has experienced its top line decline at an average rate of 5.7% over the past 3 years (compared to an increase of 5.5% for S&P 500) • Its revenues have decreased 10.9% from $58 Bil to $51 Bil in the last 12 months (versus growth of 5.5% for S&P 500) • Additionally, its quarterly revenues reduced by 13.2% to $12 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year prior (as opposed to a 4.8% improvement for S&P 500) How Profitable Is Bunge Global? Bunge Global's profit margins are significantly below most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. • Bunge Global's Operating Income over the last four quarters was $1.4 Bil, representing a very poor Operating Margin of 2.7% • Bunge Global's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) during this time was $621 Mil, indicating a very poor OCF Margin of 1.2% (vs. 14.9% for S&P 500) • For the last four-quarter period, Bunge Global's Net Income was $1.1 Bil – reflecting a poor Net Income Margin of 2.1% (compared to 11.6% for S&P 500) Does Bunge Global Look Financially Stable? Bunge Global's balance sheet appears stable. • Bunge Global's Debt amount was $7.7 Bil at the conclusion of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $10 Bil (as of 7/7/2025). This results in a poor Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 71.2% (versus 19.4% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable] • Cash (including cash equivalents) constitutes $3.9 Bil of the $27 Bil in Total Assets for Bunge Global. This results in a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 14.6% How Resilient Is BG Stock During A Downturn? BG stock has performed significantly worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some recent downturns. Concerned about how a market crash could affect BG stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and after the last six market crashes. • BG stock declined 35.4% from a peak of $126.76 on 18 April 2022 to $81.92 on 26 September 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 • The stock is still yet to regain its pre-Crisis peak • The highest price the stock has achieved since then is 115.98 on 7 August 2023 and it currently trades around $75 • BG stock dropped 47.8% from a peak of $57.94 on 3 January 2020 to $30.25 on 18 March 2020, versus a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500 • The stock fully returned to its pre-Crisis peak by 28 October 2020 • BG stock decreased 77.5% from a high of $133.00 on 14 January 2008 to $29.99 on 28 October 2008, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500 • The stock has yet to recover to its pre-Crisis peak Putting All The Pieces Together Despite a seemingly favorable valuation, BG stock appears fundamentally fragile in areas of growth, profitability, and resilience during downturns. Until there's proof of a shift in commodity prices or consistent improvement in operating performance, the stock remains a high-risk investment. While avoiding BG stock for now is advisable, you might consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to deliver strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offered a flexible way to capitalize on favorable market conditions while minimizing losses in declining markets, as described in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
18-06-2025
- Health
- Forbes
FDA Greenlights HIV Prevention Drug Yeztugo
Yeztugo, a twice-a-year antiviral shot to prevent HIV, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday, marking a major advance in battling AIDS. Yeztugo was approved by the FDA Wednesday. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images The drug (which has the generic name lenacapavir) will become available in the U.S. following the approval, though it's unclear who will initially have access to the drug. This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
Forbes
05-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What's Happening With MDB Stock?
UKRAINE - 2021/04/29: In this photo illustration, a MongoDB logo seen displayed on a smartphone and ... More a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB), a prominent database management firm, recently reported impressive Q1 results that greatly surpassed analyst predictions. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share on revenue of $549 million, easily exceeding consensus forecasts of $0.66 per share and $528 million, respectively. This robust performance resulted in a 15% increase in MDB stock during after-hours trading. Now, investors looking for stable returns may want to consider diversified investment alternatives such as the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has showcased impressive performance, yielding over 91% returns since its inception. Separately, see – RGTI Stock: What's Next After An 1,100% Rally? Given MDB's recent stock increase and inherent volatility, you may be questioning whether it remains a sound investment. Despite trading at elevated valuations, we believe MongoDB still has potential for growth. Currently priced at approximately $230 per share, the stock is trading at 8.8x trailing revenues and 55x trailing adjusted earnings. Although these multiples seem high, they are significantly lower than its three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.2x and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 143x. MongoDB commands these high valuation multiples due to its remarkable financial performance and strong market presence. The company has consistently increased its revenues at an average annual rate exceeding 30% over the past three years. Even though it currently reports GAAP losses, it has a robust adjusted net income margin of 16%. The adjusted net income excludes non-cash items such as stock-based compensation and one-time expenses like acquisition-related costs. Moreover, MongoDB maintains a solid balance sheet, with debt comprising only 0.2% of equity and a high cash-to-total-assets ratio of 68%. MongoDB's Q1 results exhibited solid growth across essential metrics. Overall sales rose by 22% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 26% increase in Atlas revenues, which reached approximately $395 million. The company also experienced significant enhancements in margins, with its reported operating margin improving from -22% in the prior-year quarter to -10% in Q1. Likewise, the adjusted operating margin soared by 900 basis points to 16% over the same period. As a result, MongoDB's net profitability received a significant boost, with adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share, representing a 96% increase from $0.51 in the same quarter of the previous year. Looking forward, MongoDB anticipates Q2 revenue to fall within the range of $548 million to $553 million and adjusted earnings per share between $0.62 and $0.66. These projections are optimistic, surpassing consensus estimates of $549.3 million in revenue and $0.58 in adjusted EPS. MongoDB is strategically situated to take advantage of the artificial intelligence boom through its Atlas Vector Search features. This has established the company as a leading vector database for AI applications. MongoDB has actively broadened its AI Applications Program through new partnerships with prominent AI and technology firms. Additionally, the introduction of cost-reducing vector quantization features, which sustain performance, is anticipated to further propel MongoDB's growth in the dynamic AI landscape. On a separate note, check out – Is CRWD Stock Overvalued At $460? While MDB stock's valuation appears high but defensible, investors should thoroughly evaluate potential risks. MongoDB has historically shown greater vulnerability to economic downturns compared to the broader market. For example, during the 2022 inflation shock, the stock dropped by 76% from its peak, considerably underperforming the S&P 500's 25% decline. Similarly, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic correction, MDB decreased by 45% against a 34% decline for the S&P 500. This trend indicates that MDB stock is more exposed to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. See – Buy or Sell MDB Stock – for more in-depth information. Moreover, there are concerns regarding a potential slowdown in sales growth. Consensus forecasts predict the company's overall sales to increase at a mid-teens average rate over the next few years, a marked deceleration from its impressive 30% average growth rate of the past three years. Consequently, while MongoDB stock may continue to be attractive, investors should carefully evaluate these risks against its strong growth potential and strategic positioning. While you may be inclined to purchase MDB after a strong Q1, investing in a single stock, regardless of its promise, carries risks. If you wish to spread that risk while exposing yourself to substantial upside, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered better returns with less risk compared to the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster experience, as evidenced in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
02-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Fear Martin Marietta At $550?
UKRAINE - 2021/05/24: In this photo illustration, Martin Marietta logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone and pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Martin Marietta Materials Inc (NYSE: MLM) stock fell 27% from its all-time high of approximately $620 in November 2024, decreasing to $453 in April 2025. It then rebounded by about 22% to current levels around $550. Thus, the stock is down roughly 11% since November, despite the company reporting an operating margin exceeding 42% in 2024. In comparison, Meta reported operating margins of 42% in 2024 and has still seen an increase of 9% from early November to now! However, there's an important point to consider: Martin Marietta trades at 32 times earnings. Reversing that gives a meager 3% earnings yield. For reference, Meta—which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Reality Labs—trades at a significantly lower earnings multiple of 23 times and is growing revenue almost twice as quickly. Meta's revenue has grown by 13% over the last three years, while MLM experienced revenue growth of 6.7% during the same period. So yes, Martin Marietta benefits from consistent infrastructure demand which ensures stable cash flows and strong returns. But at $550 per share, this represents a premium valuation pursuing a growth narrative that simply isn't keeping up. And what happens when the growth fails to meet expectations? That's when reality sets in. See Buy or Sell MLM stock? MLM is frequently regarded as a long-term asset that will gain from sustained urbanization, infrastructure enhancements, and population growth, but history paints a different picture. During the 2008 global financial crisis, its shares plummeted nearly 64%. At the beginning of the Covid pandemic in 2020, they dropped by 49%. Moreover, in 2022, amidst rising inflation and consumer pressure, Martin Marietta faced another setback with a 33% decrease. Not exactly resilient—yet currently, the stock trades at a premium valuation. MLM benefits from stable demand propelled by infrastructure expenditures, particularly owing to government initiatives like the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Projects involving highways, bridges, and public works necessitate substantial volumes of aggregates — MLM's core product. Furthermore, MLM stands as one of the largest providers of construction aggregates in the U.S., which affords it pricing power and economies of scale. Its size and vertical integration enhance operational efficiency. MLM consistently showcases strong earnings, significant free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital. Yet the broader context is less exciting. As of the first quarter of 2025, Martin Marietta has encountered a notable rise in its debt levels, mainly due to strategic acquisitions and capital investments aimed at expanding its operations. Debt was reported at $5.41 billion as of March 31, 2025, marking a significant increase from $3.95 billion at the conclusion of 2024. The company disclosed a debt to EBITDA of 4.06 for the quarter ending March 2025, which surpasses the industry median. The company reported solid performance for the first quarter of 2025. Revenues totaled $1.35 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase. In FY26, the company has projected revenues between $6.83 billion and $7.23 billion, indicating a growth of 5 to 10%. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to increase by around 9%. That's hardly significant growth for a company valued like a hyper-growth tech stock. Adding to the difficulties are weather-related risks. Operations can be disrupted by hurricanes, storms, or other extreme weather events, which have historically caused production delays and impacted revenue. Despite valuation pressures and macroeconomic risks, MLM's scale provides it with considerable advantages. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the IIJA, which allocates $1.2 trillion for infrastructure projects over five years. As of early 2025, roughly 66% of highway and bridge funding is yet to be utilized, suggesting a substantial pipeline of projects extending through 2026 and beyond. In Q1 2025, Martin Marietta reported a 6.8% increase in the average selling price of aggregates to $23.77 per ton, driven by organic price/cost improvements and margin-accretive acquisitions. This pricing momentum is likely to persist, bolstering revenue growth. Investing in a single stock carries inherent risks. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has demonstrated a history of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the past 4 years. Why is that? Collectively, HQ Portfolio stocks have yielded better returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index, exhibiting less volatility as illustrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
