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Water, not warheads, could spark the next South Asia crisis
Water, not warheads, could spark the next South Asia crisis

Russia Today

time2 hours ago

  • Business
  • Russia Today

Water, not warheads, could spark the next South Asia crisis

Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced last week the launch of a monumental dam project on the Tibetan Plateau that is set to become the largest hydroelectric facility in the world, according to Chinese media. Situated on the lower stretches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, the project has sparked concerns about potential downstream effects on water availability and environmental sustainability in India and Bangladesh. On July 19, Li, while justifying the launch of the construction of a dam over the Brahmaputra River in the ecologically fragile and sensitive Tibet region, allayed apprehensions over its possible bearing in the midstream and lower riparian countries such as India and Bangladesh. China says the dam project, costing an estimated $167 billion, will ensure ecological protection and enhance local prosperity. Earlier this month, the chief minister of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, Pema Khandu, described the Chinese dam project on the river, which in India is largely referred to as the Brahmaputra, as a 'ticking water bomb' and a matter of grave concern. Over 3,000km from Arunachal Pradesh, in the hushed conversations of the Kashmir Valley, people are quietly speculating that the next war between India and Pakistan may be fought over Kashmir's waters. After the April 22 terrorist attack in the picturesque Baisaran valley in Pahalgam, Kashmir, New Delhi put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in abeyance. In a tit-for-tat response, Islamabad suspended the Simla Agreement of 1972 and described India's action as an 'act of war.' The IWT, brokered by the World Bank, was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960. It is a water-distribution agreement between India and Pakistan that had survived for the last 65 years but has been suspended for the first time by India. According to the IWT, both countries can use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. Pakistan is granted rights to the Indus Basin's western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – for irrigation, drinking, and non-consumptive uses (hydropower). India has control over the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – for unrestricted use. As per the treaty, India is allowed to use the western rivers for limited purposes (power generation and irrigation), without storing or diverting large volumes. New Delhi is now reportedly working on a mega inter-basin water transfer plan to possibly divert surplus flows from Jammu and Kashmir waters to the northern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, and even to Rajasthan. Media reports indicate that New Delhi aims to maximize the benefits of the Indus River waters. A feasibility study is being conducted to explore the possibility of constructing a 113-km-long canal that would redirect surplus flows from Kashmir to other states. Predictably, this proposal has not gone down well with either Islamabad or Kashmir-based political groups. Besides triggering a war of words between the major Unionist political formations of Kashmir and Punjab, this project is likely to instigate new interstate water disputes. It also has geopolitical ramifications. Pravin Sawhney, a former India Army officer, prominent strategic and defense expert and author, told RT that any violation of the IWT would be an act of war from Pakistan's perspective. 'Stopping water flow to Pakistan or diverting Kashmir waters to other states in violation of the IWT will be considered an Act of War. A war that India cannot win because of China and Pakistan being iron-clad friends,' Sawhney said. However, after the Pahalgam incident, New Delhi hardened its position vis-à-vis Islamabad. On a visit to the state of Madhya Pradesh last month, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah said, 'Indus waters will be taken to Rajasthan's Sri Ganganagar through canals within three years.' He also claimed that Pakistan will be left 'craving for every drop of water.' Similar statements have been made by other Indian politicians. How does Islamabad perceive this threat? In a recent interview with The Wire, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari spoke in favor of a comprehensive dialogue between the two countries on all outstanding issues, including the Kashmir dispute and 'water terrorism.' 'India is threatening to cut off the water supply to 240 million people of Pakistan to starve the Indus Valley civilization, a shared culture, history and heritage. This goes against everything that used to be Indian. It goes against the philosophy of (Mohandas Karamchand) Gandhi. It goes against all that we have been taught about India as a secular country.' In earlier interviews, Bhutto warned of serious ramifications if the water flow was stopped to Pakistan, a low riparian state. During the National Assembly's budget session in Pakistan last month, he accused the current Indian government of violating international law by unilaterally suspending the IWT. The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration recently ruled that New Delhi's decision to suspend the IWT did not deprive the court of its competence to deliver judgment on Pakistan's complaints against India. New Delhi has opposed the proceedings of the Court of Arbitration ever since its creation by the World Bank in October 2022. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs, in a statement on June 27, called the move the 'latest charade at Pakistan's behest.' New Delhi's plan to reroute Kashmir's waters potentially complicates geopolitical tensions between the two rivals, whose 78-year-old history has witnessed major wars, intense and prolonged periods of escalation during the 1999 Kargil conflict, and more recently, the standoff in May 2025. Rao Farman Ali, the author of 'Water, Polity and Kashmir', argues that the international community will not allow another war between Pakistan and India given that both are nuclear powers. "Rhetoric on either side won't help. There is a need to handle sensitive issues such as the Indus Waters Treaty with caution and foresight, and the key lies in resolution of the Kashmir dispute,' Ali told RT. He added that the IWT's potential as a sustainable peace-building structure remains unexploited. Meanwhile, he favors a win-win situation for China, Pakistan, and India as a result of a potential agreement between all stakeholders. 'A trilateral 1.2.3 Agreement between China, India and Pakistan, focusing on the immediate demilitarization of the Siachen Glacier – the vital 'blue crystal feeding the Indus (Neelam-Kishanganga) – is an urgent imperative,' he said, adding that suspending the IWT would trigger another conflict and that perpetual Pakistan-India acrimony is unaffordable and unreasonable. Chinese experts meanwhile have warned New Delhi against any potential plans to divert waters. Victor Gao, chair professor at Soochow University and expert on international relations, said in an interview with India Today that Beijing will have to step in if New Delhi and Islamabad are not able to "come up with an equitable way of allocating the water." 'We really do not want to see the way the Indian government is diverting water from the Indus river, depriving the Pakistani people in the downstream of the benefit of water. We do not like it at all. And we warned the Indian government not to do that because there will be consequences if the Indian government continues to deny water to the people in Pakistan on the downstream," he asserted, arguing the India is a midstream country and that China is 'the real upper stream country.' Gao, who is known to be close to the Chinese establishment, said that denial or diversion of water to mid-stream or low riparian states will have consequences. 'Don't do unto others what you do not want others to do unto you. India is not really in the upper stream. India is a midstream country. So, be peaceful with your neighbor rather than engaging in a political spectacle,' he warned in a 25-minute-long interview. China controls the Brahmaputra River and wields influence to disrupt the flow of the waters. The proposed dam project by China also risks renewed confrontation between Beijing and New Delhi. Unlike Pakistan and India, China is not a signatory to any international water treaties.

Khandu unveils transformative initiatives to mark Arunachal's 50 years of statehood
Khandu unveils transformative initiatives to mark Arunachal's 50 years of statehood

The Print

time11 hours ago

  • Politics
  • The Print

Khandu unveils transformative initiatives to mark Arunachal's 50 years of statehood

The initiatives, which form part of the state's Golden Jubilee vision, are designed to leave a lasting impact on the lives of citizens across all sections of society. In a message shared on social media, Khandu highlighted a series of landmark projects and schemes that reflect the state government's focus on education, healthcare, women's empowerment, rural electrification, and youth development. Itanagar, Jul 28 (PTI) Chief Minister Pema Khandu on Monday unveiled a comprehensive set of development initiatives to commemorate 50 years of Arunachal Pradesh's statehood, describing the occasion as 'not just a celebration, but commitment in action'. Among the major announcements is the establishment of 50 Golden Jubilee Model Schools with a total investment of Rs 500 crore, aimed at transforming education at the grassroots. Alongside infrastructure development, the government has also introduced the Golden Jubilee Merit Award, which will provide financial assistance of Rs 2 lakh to students securing admission into top-tier institutions such as IITs, IIMs, AIIMS, and national law universities (NLUs). Further promoting inclusive development, Khandu announced the launch of the Golden Jubilee Daughters scheme, under which every girl child born in the state and fully immunised will receive Rs 50,000. 'It's a step towards dignity, health and empowerment,' Khandu said in a post on X, emphasising the importance of supporting girls from birth through proactive state intervention. Rural and border area development also featured prominently in the Golden Jubilee roadmap, with Khandu announcing that 50 micro-hydel projects will be set up under the Golden Jubilee Border Village Illumination initiative. These projects are expected to bring sustainable electricity to remote border villages, thereby improving the quality of life and boosting local livelihoods. 'We are lighting up lives and livelihoods,' Khandu said. To strengthen healthcare infrastructure, the chief minister also revealed that 60 Primary and Community Health Centres (PHCs and CHCs) across the state will be upgraded under the Golden Jubilee Health Mission, enhancing medical access in far-flung and underserved areas. 'As we mark 50 glorious years of Arunachal's statehood, we're not just celebrating a milestone, we are building the future,' Khandu said, adding that these initiatives reflect our commitment to creating a more inclusive, empowered, and self-reliant Arunachal. The initiatives underscore the state government's long-term vision of development and inclusivity, ensuring that the celebrations go beyond ceremonial events and translate into tangible progress on the ground. PTI UPL UPL RG This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.

Masterstroke by Modi government, launches double strike on China, hampers Xi Jinping's plan of building world's largest dam by... India plans to...
Masterstroke by Modi government, launches double strike on China, hampers Xi Jinping's plan of building world's largest dam by... India plans to...

India.com

time17 hours ago

  • Politics
  • India.com

Masterstroke by Modi government, launches double strike on China, hampers Xi Jinping's plan of building world's largest dam by... India plans to...

Siang Dam: A tractor slowly climbed a muddy hill in Beging village of Siang district in Arunachal Pradesh on May 21. According to the reports, the vehicle was carrying a drilling machine and other equipment meant for a special study. This study was being conducted to explore the possibility of constructing a large dam on the Siang River. The Siang River is known as the Brahmaputra in Assam and the Yarlung Tsangpo in China. The local Adi community there is against the dam and has been protesting. Authorities, meanwhile, tried to carry out the work discreetly. They planned to begin operations in Beging village first and then transport the equipment across the river. Locals are protesting against the dam: According to an ET report, protestors marched to Beging, cut off its only link to the outside world — a hanging bridge — and damaged the drilling machines, halting the survey work. Law enforcement agencies, despite the growing protests, remained restrained and avoided confrontation in the sensitive border region. Fearing a worsening of the situation, authorities temporarily suspended the operations. Here are some of the key details: The NHPC engineers stationed at the current drilling site moved to Pasighat, the main town located on the banks of the Siang River This has brought a temporary calm to the disputed riverfront. The government remains committed to constructing the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), which is estimated to cost ₹1.5 lakh crore. The project includes a 267-meter-high dam with a storage capacity of 9.2 billion cubic meters (BCM), designed as a strategic reservoir to counter potential upstream water diversion by China. Dam Vs Dam: It is important to note that this 1,000-megawatt project offers Arunachal Pradesh 12 percent free electricity and revenue sharing. The timing coincides with Beijing laying the foundation of the world's largest dam on the Brahmaputra River. The building of the dam marks the beginning of strategic water management in the Eastern Himalayas. This raises a critical question: Will India's defensive dam strategy provide effective deterrence in this sensitive region, or will it further exacerbate environmental vulnerabilities? Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu said on July 9, 'This (Chinese dam) poses an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihood. It is quite serious because China could even use it as a kind of 'water bomb'.' He made this statement just a few days before Beijing officially announced the commencement of the construction work.

Khandu takes pride as PM hails Roing's citizen-led drive
Khandu takes pride as PM hails Roing's citizen-led drive

Time of India

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • Time of India

Khandu takes pride as PM hails Roing's citizen-led drive

Itanagar: Arunachal Pradesh CM Pema Khandu on Sunday expressed pride after PM Narendra Modi lauded the citizen-led 'Green Roing' initiative in Lower Dibang Valley district during his ' Mann Ki Baat ' programme, reports Joken Ete. Khandu called it a moment of national recognition for a grassroots movement. "It's always heartening when quiet, local efforts catch the attention of the nation. Green Roing isn't just a campaign. It's a movement," the CM said in a post on X. Khandu said the recognition reinforces how real change begins at the grassroots level. "Appreciate every citizen who made this possible. You've set an example for the rest of us," he said. In his radio address, the PM highlighted Roing as an inspiring example of how small towns are finding innovative solutions to cleanliness and and environmental challenges. PTI

Dam gamble on Siang: China moves ahead with its mega project - Will India's response face local resistance?
Dam gamble on Siang: China moves ahead with its mega project - Will India's response face local resistance?

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Time of India

Dam gamble on Siang: China moves ahead with its mega project - Will India's response face local resistance?

Tractors slowly climbed a muddy hillside in Begging village of Arunachal Pradesh's Siang district, carrying drilling rigs and equipment for a sensitive pre-feasibility study on May 21. The goal was to assess the possibility of building a massive dam across the Siang River, called the Brahmaputra in Assam and Yarlung Zangbo in China. But on the opposite bank, in Parong, anger was already building. The local Adi community, opposed to the dam, had been staging protests. Authorities tried to keep operations quiet, planning to start work in Begging and later ferry equipment across the river. However, within a week, resistance intensified. Protesters marched to Begging, cut off its only link to the outside world, a hanging bridge — and damaged the drilling machines, bringing the survey to a halt, ET reported. Despite growing unrest, law enforcement remained restrained, avoiding confrontation in the sensitive border area. The authorities, cautious of escalation, suspended operations temporarily. NHPC engineers stationed at the proposed drilling location withdrew to Pasighat, the primary town along the Siang, leaving the contested riverbank quiet. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Remember Him? Take A Deep Breath Before You See Him Now The Noodle Box Undo This tranquility is temporary. The government remains committed to constructing the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), a Rs 1,50,000 crore initiative. The project features a 267-m-tall dam with 9.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) storage capacity, designed as a strategic reserve against potential upstream water releases by China. The 11,000 MW project offers Arunachal Pradesh 12% free electricity and revenue participation. The timing aligns with Beijing's recent groundbreaking of the world's largest dam upstream on the Brahmaputra, initiating strategic water management in the Eastern Himalayas. A critical question emerges: will India's defensive dam strategy provide effective deterrence or exacerbate environmental vulnerabilities in this sensitive region. The timing is telling. Just days ago, China began work on what is expected to be the world's largest dam on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River. India's own plans for a massive dam on the Siang — the river's name in Arunachal Pradesh, appear to be a strategic response. But the move raises a critical question. Can India's proposed dam act as a credible counter to China's project, or will it deepen environmental and social challenges in the fragile Eastern Himalayan region? "It (the Chinese dam) is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of 'water bomb'," Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu told PTI on July 9, just days before Beijing formally announced the commencement of construction. China's first move China was the first to disturb the fragile peace along the McMahon Line. In 2020, amid rising military tensions with India in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, Beijing unveiled plans for a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo. It was folded into China's 14th Five-Year Plan, signaling how seriously the country views its strategic importance. That dam, now under construction in Nyingchi near the Great Bend of the river, is expected to outsize even China's famous Three Gorges Dam. It will feature five cascading power stations, generate 300 million megawatthours (MWh) annually, and cost roughly $168 billion. Premier Li Qiang formally launched the project on July 19, calling it the 'project of the century.' China has also created a state-owned firm, China Yajiang Group — to manage construction. China's capital markets have reacted with enthusiasm. Stocks of key engineering firms surged after the announcement, and the CSI Construction & Engineering Index jumped 4% to hit a 7-month high. India's strategic response India's proposed SUMP project is seen as a direct counter to China's dam. The aim: to establish a strategic foothold on the Siang river before it becomes heavily regulated upstream. However, while China's project is already underway, India's remains stuck at the pre-feasibility stage. The project has run into stiff resistance from local communities in Arunachal Pradesh. On May 21, when two rigs were quietly moved into the village of Begging to start pre-feasibility drilling, protests broke out on the opposite bank in Parong. Within a week, angry villagers destroyed the rigs and cut off access by damaging a fragile hanging bridge — the only connection to the outside world. Ecological and cultural fears Many are also worried about the environmental impact of two mega dams facing off across the McMahon Line. The Eastern Himalayas are a seismically active and ecologically fragile zone. Experts warn that the scale of these projects could disrupt the delicate balance of the region's rivers and biodiversity. A bigger concern is the potential for water diversion. According to internal government documents, 84% of the Siang's winter flow in Arunachal Pradesh originates in China. If Beijing decides to divert or block this flow, the Brahmaputra could shrink drastically in the dry season, especially in Upper Assam, before tributaries replenish it downstream, ET reported. Assam's position Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has tried to downplay the risks, arguing that 70% of the Brahmaputra's flow comes from Indian territory and Bhutan, not China. However, experts argue that this may be true on an annual average — but not during the critical winter months, when Chinese-origin water dominates the flow. Could the Brahmaputra shrink? Though the Brahmaputra is often seen as a mighty and resilient river, the data reveals a more complex picture, especially during the dry winter months. As per internal documents related to India's proposed Siang Upper Middle Stage Project (SUMP), 84% of the Brahmaputra's water in Arunachal Pradesh between November and April originates in China. This raises serious concerns. If China diverts or controls the flow upstream through its new mega dam project on the Yarlung Zangbo, the river's volume downstream, especially in Upper Assam—could drop dramatically. In its early stretches, before tributaries join in, the Brahmaputra may shrink to a trickle, threatening the region's ecological balance and biodiversity. The looming presence of two massive dams—one on each side of the McMahon Line—adds urgency to the issue. Experts and locals alike are asking: What will happen to the river and the people who depend on it if both projects go ahead? Voices from the ground: Protests and fears In January, during a visit to the proposed dam sites in Arunachal Pradesh—Parong, Dite Dime, and Ugeng—a sense of fear and resistance was clearly visible. Villagers in Parong, which has around 125 families, voiced strong opposition. 'We are not just opposing the dam, we are against any feasibility studies being conducted here,' Tato Pabin, a local resident of Parong told ET. 'Our orange farms, which thrive in the low-lying areas along the river, will be completely wiped out," he added. Parong has emerged as the frontrunner site for the dam. The other two locations, Dite Dime and Ugeng, appear to have been dropped from active consideration, according to an official familiar with the project. Widespread impact on villages While a full assessment is still pending, initial estimates suggest that nearly 59 villages could be affected by the dam. Of these, at least 15 villages may require complete relocation. So far, only three villages—Pangkang, Riga, and Riew—have given their approval for the project. The rest remain either opposed or undecided, reflecting widespread apprehension in the region. Beyond the human and environmental cost, the proposed dam poses risks to vital infrastructure. A key stretch of road leading to the Tuting Advanced Landing Ground, a strategically important military airstrip near the China border, could be submerged if the project proceeds. This would force authorities to construct an alternative route at a higher elevation—a major logistical and financial undertaking—to maintain military and civilian access in this sensitive frontier zone. As both countries push forward with dam projects, the geopolitical and ecological stakes are higher than ever. Whether India's dam becomes a deterrent or a new source of conflict — or environmental damage — remains to be seen. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now

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