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Bangkok Post
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Protest a worrying sign
The protest at Victory Monument on Saturday brought back memories of the last two street demonstrations which rocked the capital in recent years -- the protest organised by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) against then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the rallies held by the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) against his sister, Yingluck. Both protests ultimately failed to remove the leaders from power. However, they paved the way for two military coups to happen -- the first was led by Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, and the latest by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. On Saturday, Thai politics seemed to have come full circle, with old faces from the PDRC and PAD back to protesting on the streets, this time under the banner of the "Ruam Palang Paen Din Pok Pong Athipatai", or the United Power of the Land to Protect Sovereignty, group. Despite the heavy rain over the weekend, at least 10,000 people reportedly showed up to the peaceful rally to back the push to remove yet another prime minister from the Shinawatra family from office -- this time, Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn. The embattled PM is at the centre of the political crisis, which stemmed from the leaked recording of her conversation with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, in which she could be heard promising to do what he wanted to de-escalate the situation along the border. If history is any indication, then this protest movement is destined to fail. Indeed, all street protests over the past two decades -- including those staged by the red shirts and the Democracy Restoration Group (DRG) -- failed to achieve their goal of booting the prime minister from office. However, the latest protest is a cause for concern. During the demonstration, veteran protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul told the crowds which gathered on Saturday that he wouldn't object "if the military does something". Equally worrying is the ultranationalist rhetoric which accompanied his coup-friendly attitude. At the protest, he encouraged the government to reclaim areas along the border which now belong to Cambodia. Such hardline rhetoric truly has no place in today's society. His comments faced a backlash from both the ruling coalition and the opposition, forcing the group to issue a statement to reassure the public that the group isn't calling for a military coup. This, however, isn't enough. To ensure peace, a political campaign or protest must be geared towards promoting democracy through inclusive dialogue and educating the public about the need for a democratic solution and just policies. In fact, Mr Sondhi's remarks spoiled the group's political momentum. The Pheu Thai Party and People's Party have officially blasted the group, accusing it of trying to overthrow the government and undermine democracy by calling for a military putsch. The war of words which followed Saturday's protest suggests Thai politics is about to reach a dead end once more. Street protests and political rhetoric will not bring about real change and improvement. The leaders of all protest movements must remember that people -- regardless of their political inclinations -- turn to street protest because they lack trust in their elected lawmakers. To prevent violent street protests or even a military coup, lawmakers and political parties must work to show that they exist to protect public interests, not their own political goals. Without trust, the centre will not hold.
Bangkok Post
30-06-2025
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
New anti-Paetongtarn group draws scrutiny
Political observers are closely watching the trajectory of the "United Front to Defend Thai Sovereignty", a new group that has emerged as a vocal critic of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Its future remains uncertain following a large protest at Bangkok's Victory Monument on Saturday, which exceeded expectations in turnout. The peaceful demonstration demanded Ms Paetongtarn's resignation amid growing dissatisfaction with her leadership, prompting speculation about whether further protests will follow. The rally took place amid rising political tensions, with the ruling coalition facing internal rifts and a decline in public confidence. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political and security analyst, said the protest was notable for uniting figures from former rival groups, including red shirts, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), aka yellow shirts, and the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), as well as academics and some senators. "It was the largest such convergence in years," he said, particularly surprising given the red shirts' traditional alignment with the ruling party. However, Mr Panitan noted the protest's unity was superficial, as only a few prominent figures from each group took part, and ideological divisions remained. He estimated around 10,000 attendees, a significant number given the lack of political party backing. Opposition parties have so far kept their distance. Mr Panitan stressed the importance of monitoring unaffiliated citizens and online platforms, which have played a major role in spreading the protest's message. He also pointed to the potential influence of upcoming judicial rulings on the PM's status, expected after July 1, in shaping public sentiment. The political and security analyst advised Ms Paetongtarn to engage more actively with undecided citizens rather than relying on vague affirmations of protest rights. "Acknowledging the right to protest isn't a strategy. It doesn't address the causes of dissatisfaction," Mr Panitan said. Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, said the rally's scale surprised the government, police, and ruling Pheu Thai Party. Authorities had expected fewer than 3,000 attendees. He attributed the protest's momentum to widespread discontent over the cabinet formation process, legal double standards, especially Thaksin Shinawatra's treatment while detained, and a lack of transparency in public institutions. The audio clip of a conversation between Ms Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, as well as the border dispute and illegal casinos, added to the outrage. Mr Olarn criticised some of the protest's main stands for appearing to seek personal political redemption, mistaking the crowd's presence as support for them. He pointed to PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul's on-stage remarks suggesting a coup as especially damaging. "Such rhetoric risks alienating the crowd and discrediting the protest," he warned, adding that many participants are wary of any move that could justify military intervention. Mr Sondhi's comments, Mr Olarn argued, created a vulnerability the government could exploit. By invoking the possibility of a coup, Mr Sondhi inadvertently positioned Pheu Thai as a defender of constitutional governance. Even groups critical of the government may back it temporarily to prevent another military takeover. "It was a strategic error," Mr Olarn concluded. Another legal scholar, Komsan Pohkong, emphasised that the demonstration reflected informed civic engagement. "This wasn't mob rule. These participants were concerned, largely middle-class citizens expressing political dissatisfaction in an organised way." He warned against dismissing their concerns, particularly around national sovereignty. "People may tolerate poor governance, but not perceived concessions on sovereignty." Mr Komsan said the rally's scale resembles early stages of past movements, like the PDRC and 2010 red-shirt protests, suggesting the potential for further escalation. "If ignored, this could become a much larger movement." He also noted the lingering controversy over the Shinawatra family's influence.
Bangkok Post
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
A 'dangerous' July for the Shinawatras
The Hun Sen effect -- caused by a controversial private telephone call recording between Cambodia's de facto leader and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra -- has thrown Thai politics into disarray. Ms Paetongtarn is in treacherous waters as calls for her resignation grow. Her opponents are to gather today in a bid to throw her out of office. The telephone conversation, believed to have been leaked by the Cambodian former prime minister Hun Sen, cast Ms Paetongtarn in a very bad light. Questions about her leadership, or lack thereof, are getting louder and louder, while public trust in her is rapidly eroding. Due to her limited experience, she was not an ideal leader from the start. Although the 38-year-old prime minister is trying to fight back by switching into tough mode, public confidence in her continues to dip. To flex her political muscles, PM Paetongtarn has instructed authorities to target call centre scams at the border town of Poipet that have for a long time harmed innocent people. The decision reportedly hit Cambodian leaders hard as it's believed that those behind the scam operation are supporters of the Hun family. The fact is, Ms Paetongtarn could have declared a war against scammers along the Thai border long ago, but chose not to. Critics say she let family ties between her family and Hun Sen's affect the decision. With the telephone recording controversy, it's clear that her leadership is in crisis. Pheu Thai's popularity had already nosedived after it dumped the then Move Forward Party (MFP) and chose to instead form a coalition with parties under the ex-junta's control. Suffice it to say, July won't be summer time for Ms Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai, as they will be facing many challenges. There are quite a few scenarios that are likely to cripple Ms Paetongtarn, with slim chances of her continuing as government leader. Among them: lawfare, largely based on the Hun Sen effect, through independent agencies; a no-confidence censure pushed by friend-turned-foe Bhumjaithai, which remains uncertain as it requires consent from other opposition parties; rising calls for her to resign, which she is choosing to ignore, and calls for a house dissolution. A coup has been ruled out, at least for now. Demonstrations against her by groups of opponents, ie, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), and even ex-red shirt leaders, who are united in this cause, may not directly result in her removal from office. But it could be fuel for lawfare against her. Ms Paetongtarn's fate hangs in the balance as petitions against her are filed with the National Anti-Corruption Commission and Constitutional Court. In particular, the Senate petitioned the charter court, as it regarded her call with Hun Sen as disrespectful to the rule of law and a breach of ethics. The charter court is to convene on July 1 to consider the case. There is widespread speculation that the court will accept the petition. Yet, it remains to be seen if it will suspend her from duty at this stage. Most political pundits believe so. Jaran Pakditanakul, a former charter court judge, is confident that Ms Paetongtarn has little chance of surviving politically. The clip saga speaks volumes about the conflicts of interest between the two families, and shows Ms Paetongtarn has no ability to handle national crises. If the court accepts the petition and Ms Paetongtarn is suspended during the probe, it is likely that the government and public administration will be handled by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, according to an analysis by Mr Jaran. Even though the prospective charter court's action, mentioned by Mr Jaran, may be deemed contentious lawfare, it is preferable to a military coup, which would see the country regress politically. The following is a likely scenario if the court accepts the case against Ms Paetongtarn and suspends her from duty. Mr Phumtham would become acting PM. This could happen in around 1-2 months when the court hands down a ruling. If the court does ditch Ms Paetongtarn, the House of Representatives will vote for a new PM and, under the present circumstances, Chaikasem Nitisiri -- Pheu Thai's third prime ministerial candidate -- stands a high chance of replacing her, but only if he is fit enough to take care of the country. Mr Chaikasem, 76, is reported to have health problems. It could be said that lawfare -- considered by many as a kind of coup by independent agencies -- is the favourable option by the old guard to attack their enemies. Look at what happened to the FFP and MFP. Yet, there is a chance Ms Paetongtarn may survive the lawfare. If so, it would mean the Shinawatras have another deal with the old guard, which may be pleased with the "civilian-cum-military government" now that Pheu Thai is allowing the men in green to have a mandate in handling border issues. At the same time, it's understandable that Pheu Thai will never accept a House dissolution as an option, as it is now in a disadvantaged position, with declining popularity as a result of its poor performance in running the country over the past two years. The party is experiencing a big headache in forming a new coalition as prospective partners are optimising their cabinet seat demands, and Pheu Thai has to accommodate them as a paper-thin majority is too risky. All in all, July is set to be a dangerous month for both Ms Paetongtarn and Thaksin. For Thaksin, the court is expected to hand down its ruling on the 14th floor saga -- his extended hospitalisation to avoid imprisonment. Given all the circumstances, this could be a turning point for Thai politics as the Shinawatra family is politically vulnerable.
