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Middle East caught in crossfire: Has the Israel-Iran conflict forced allies to secretly choose sides while staying silent?
Middle East caught in crossfire: Has the Israel-Iran conflict forced allies to secretly choose sides while staying silent?

Time of India

time27-06-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

Middle East caught in crossfire: Has the Israel-Iran conflict forced allies to secretly choose sides while staying silent?

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered under US President Donald Trump, appears to be holding, despite minor disruptions. As the immediate threat subsides, Middle Eastern countries are reevaluating their diplomatic strategies and regional alignments in light of the conflict's impact. One theme is consistent across the region: the attempt to maintain a delicate balance in public positions and behind-the-scenes actions, particularly concerning both Israel and Iran. Ambiguous positions from Jordan and Saudi Arabia Several Arab and Muslim-majority countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, condemned Israeli attacks in a joint statement. However, these same countries reportedly took covert actions that benefitted Israel. Jordan's air force blocked Iranian drones and rockets from crossing its airspace, citing civilian protection. Saudi Arabia is believed to have allowed Israeli aircraft through its airspace and possibly even intercepted Iranian missiles directly—though this remains unverified. Both countries have long-standing military ties with the US and receive significant financial or security support. Jordan alone gets $1.45 billion annually in US foreign aid, making it one of the top recipients globally. Despite public criticism of Israel, both Jordan and Saudi Arabia remain cautious not to strain ties with Washington or Tel Aviv. Gulf states, Egypt, and their balancing acts with Iran Regional actors like the Gulf states and Egypt appear to be positioning themselves for long-term stability. Analyst Simon Wolfgang Fuchs suggests that although Iran's regional influence has weakened—especially with the decline of its proxies like Hezbollah and shifts in Syria—Gulf nations still view Iran as a key actor, not one to be further destabilized. Egypt's role has also drawn attention. While backing the ceasefire and calling for diplomacy, Cairo suppressed pro-Palestinian marches, including detaining activists in Ismailia. Egypt, receiving around $1.3 billion in US military aid, remains cautious about endangering its US ties, particularly under the current administration. Uncertainty over Iran's future leadership Some countries in the region may actually prefer the current Iranian regime to remain intact. As Marcus Schneider from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation notes, there is little organized internal opposition to the Iranian government, and exiled groups such as monarchists and the People's Mujahedin lack widespread support. Schneider warns that a weakened Iran is manageable, but a desperate one could behave unpredictably. Fuchs adds that President Trump's unpredictable foreign policy, especially his use of social media, is disrupting traditional alliances and priorities. He believes that US focus may drift away from the Middle East entirely, except in relation to Israel and the guns fall silent, Middle Eastern countries are left navigating a fragile web of diplomacy, security interests, and US influence.

Opposition leaders in Iran call on Khamenei to step down after US strikes
Opposition leaders in Iran call on Khamenei to step down after US strikes

Express Tribune

time22-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Express Tribune

Opposition leaders in Iran call on Khamenei to step down after US strikes

The leaders of two prominent Iranian opposition factions on Sunday urged supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to step down and spare more bloodshed, in the wake of unprecedented American attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the shah ousted by the 1979 Islamic revolution, and Maryam Rajavi, the leader of the People's Mujahedin (MEK), which is outlawed in Iran, said in separate statements that Khamenei must quit after over a week of war between Iran and Israel. The whereabouts of Khamenei, who has led the country since 1989, are unclear after Israel refused to rule out killing him. The strikes on the Islamic Republic's three nuclear sites are the result of the regime's catastrophic pursuit of nuclear weapons at the expense of the Iranian people. Ali Khamenei and his crumbling terrorist regime have failed the nation. As Khamenei considers how to respond… — Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 22, 2025 Opposition groups claim he is deep underground in a bunker and incommunicado except with a group of his closest aides. "Now Khamenei must go," said Rajavi, saying that Khamenei's "unpatriotic project" had now "all gone up in smoke". "No to appeasement, no to war and yes to regime change -- changing the religious dictatorship by the Iranian people and the Iranian resistance," she said. Pahlavi, who is the figurehead for supporters of the ousted Iranian monarchy, said "the only sure way to achieve peace is for this regime to now end". "As Khamenei considers how to respond from his underground bunker, I say to him: For the sake of the Iranian people, respond by stepping down," he said. In another statement, 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, who remains inside Iran on leave from a prison sentence, called Iran's government a "religious, authoritarian, and misogynistic regime". Bur she said she strongly opposed the "devastating and ruthless war" and urged both sides to accept an "immediate ceasefire". "I firmly believe that democracy and peace will not emerge from the dark and terrifying corridors of war and violence," she said. The series of US strikes against Iran "devastated" its nuclear programme, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Sunday, while insisting that Washington was not seeking to oust the clerical leadership.

Two Iranian dissidents at 'imminent risk' of execution: activists
Two Iranian dissidents at 'imminent risk' of execution: activists

Yahoo

time27-01-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Two Iranian dissidents at 'imminent risk' of execution: activists

Two Iranian men convicted of membership of the People's Mujahedin opposition group, outlawed by the Islamic republic, are at imminent risk of execution after being transferred to a different prison, the organisation and activists said on Monday. The men, Behrouz Ehsani, 69, and Mehdi Hassani, 48, a father of three, were moved without prior notice on Sunday from Evin prison in Tehran to Ghezel Hesar prison in Karaj outside the capital, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the political wing of the People's Mujahedin, said in a statement. Inmates have in recent times rarely been executed inside Evin, but Ghezel Hesar has in recent years become notorious as a place of execution. The two men were convicted in September last year, in sentences upheld in January, of the capital crimes of "rebellion" and "corruption on earth" for membership of the People's Mujahedin, collecting classified information and conspiring against national security. Rights groups have also highlighted the case, with Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) saying that after the transfer they were at risk of "imminent" execution and calling for an "urgent response from the international community to save their lives". Amnesty International has said they were subjected to "torture and other ill-treatment" in jail and their trial by a Revolutionary Court in Tehran was "grossly unfair". The hasty prison transfer raised fears "their executions could be implemented at any time," Amnesty said on Monday. Rights groups are alarmed at a spike in executions in Iran they say is aimed at instilling fear throughout society, with the United Nations saying at least 901 people were executed in 2024 and at least 73 people executed so far in 2025, according to the IHR. The People's Mujahedin (PMOI, also known by the Persian acronym MEK), initially supported the 1979 revolution that toppled the shah but rapidly fell out with the new leaders under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Blamed for a string of attacks against officials in the early 1980s, it went underground inside Iran and thousands of its members were executed in 1988 mass hangings of prisoners. The concern over the risk the two men could be executed comes after two senior Iranian judges, Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghisseh, were shot dead on January 18 in Tehran by an assailant who later killed himself, according to the judiciary's Mizan Online website. The NCRI has accused both men of being implicated in the 1988 prison massacres when they were senior prosecutors. But the group has not commented on their killing. Meanwhile, six other men convicted of PMOI membership are also a risk of execution after being sentenced to death in an initial verdict in November, according to the group and Amnesty. sjw/ah/ser

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