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Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?
Following a recent visit to the Federal Reserve to inspect a renovation project, the tension between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was apparent. The future of Powell's position remains uncertain, as both appeared tense during their media presentation. When questioned about the Federal Reserve's renovation exceeding its budget, Trump remarked he would dismiss an employee over it but saw no need to fire the Fed Chairman. Despite a friction between them, the US dollar strengthened, buoyed by the market's confidence following Trump's assurance that Powell would not be let go. Meanwhile, June's durable goods data was disappointing due to weak orders for transportation equipment; it still exceeded expectations, contributing to Dollar's recovery. This weakness primarily stems from tariff pressures rather than other factors. Last week, both existing and new home sales figures fell short of market predictions, placing builders, buyers, and sellers under pressure in a housing market that plays a crucial role in the US economic cycle. Additionally, flash manufacturing PMI readings were weaker than anticipated. The Beige Book indicated that most Federal Reserve districts are experiencing modest growth in lending. Although there were some slight downward revisions, the overall situation remains tense due to persistent inflationary pressures and tariffs. The Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to maintain its current policy stance. It appears that the Fed may be gradually moving toward a rate-cutting cycle. Importantly, the looming August 1 deadline cannot be overlooked. Many of the analysts are predicting that the passing of tariff costs will soon impact consumers due to lag effects, potentially also affecting the labour market. However, there is a possibility for compromise between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. As the tariff situation stabilizes, Powell might hint at a data-driven rate cut in September as a conciliatory measure. As expected last week, the European Central Bank decided to keep its interest rate steady at 2%. With the pause in rate adjustments continuing, the ECB reiterated that its decisions will remain data-driven, making it clear that any future changes in interest rate policy will only be determined during meetings, without early commitments to a particular direction. This week is filled with significant economic reports from around the globe. Key US indicators to monitor include the 2nd quarter GDP, Personal Income and Spending (PCE), Non-Farm Payroll, and Consumer Confidence. In the meantime, the market is gearing up for a crucial week as six Central Banks prepare to announce their interest rate decisions. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will share its policy rate on Wednesday. Except for the SBP, all the other banks are expected to keep their rates unchanged. GOLD @ $ 3337.50— This week, market is expected to see volatility. To move higher, gold must surpass $ 3360 to reach $ 3388 or potentially more. However, if it falls below $ 3302, it could decline to $ 3258 or even $ 3226. EURO @ 1.1742— Euro has strong support at 1.1610 and is expected to remain above this level. If it breaks through 1.1820, it may make a move toward 1.1895. Or else 1.1550. GBP @ 1.3439— Pound Sterling will continue to face pressure unless it surpasses 1.3570 to reach 1.3620. The risk of decline will rise if it breaks below 1.3280. JPY @ 147.67— There may still be some losses, but the USD needs to hold 146.20 to make some recovery. If it can break above 148.90, it will pave the way for testing the 150 levels. If not, watch for a drop to 145.40. SBP meeting today Last week, there was a notable change in the Pakistani foreign exchange market, a rarity in recent times, as the Rupee strengthened against the US Dollar. On Monday, it was around 285 to 1 USD, but by Friday, the SBP closed at 283.4539. It is said that administrative measures helped PKR to gain some strength. The future trend continues to be uncertain. Analyzing the data, it appears that Pakistan's economy is on an upswing. This can be supported by various metrics, for instance, the country's debt and deficit ratios indicate a stronger economic position compared to some emerging and advanced economies. The region's challenges, however, play a significant role. For comparative purposes, consider certain European nations that may hold their credit ratings despite underlying risks. Pakistan's geographical context and lack of diversity similar to weaker European economies further differentiate its situation. Additionally, geopolitical conditions have shifted considerably. After three years of struggles, Pakistan's overall foreign exchange reserves are nearing $ 20 billion, with SBP's FX Reserves at $ 14.46 billion. The current account balance and the payments position are consistently positive, with remittances steadily increasing. The International Reserve and Foreign Currency position (Derivatives) stands at $ 2.6 billion, while the CDS has sharply fallen by over 1200 basis points. Pakistan's international Euro and Dollar bonds are recovering from previous lows, and last week's credit rating improvement by S & P to B- reaffirms the progress in the economy. Nevertheless, the primary challenge lies in sustaining and enhancing these economic gains. This can be achieved by energizing economic activity and boosting liquidity via the banking sector, significantly increasing credit availability to the private sector. However, this alone may not be enough unless the tax-to-GDP ratio needs to be raised significantly. Despite these encouraging signs and with oil prices around $ 70 per barrel, the Pakistani Rupee should not have depreciated and should have remained stable. A stable PKR will assist the administration and monetary authorities in keeping inflation low, enabling the monetary policy committee to potentially lower the policy rate in alignment with inflation trends. Given these considerations, policymakers on Monday July 28, might think about reducing the interest rates by nearly 100 basis points. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The Citizen
30-06-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Sars makes changes to eFiling for easy use
The Express functionality will enable taxpayers to easily view, update, and manage their tax affairs. The South African Revenue Services (Sars) has added an option on the eFiling platform ahead of the 2025 tax season to make it easier for taxpayers to process their auto assessments. Tax season 2025 is set to run from 7 July to 20 October. The new option, 'Express Functionality', will be available to taxpayers who are auto-assessed by the taxman. The Express functionality will enable taxpayers to easily view, update, and manage their tax affairs. How new option work on eFiling 'The most frequently used functions for Personal Income Tax are now more directly accessible on the eFiling landing page,' says the taxman Taxpayers will notice the 'Express' tabs at the top left of the eFiling profile home page. These tabs are expected to offer taxpayers the functions that will enable them to submit previous years' returns, view or edit tax returns, and update personal or banking details. The Citizen attempted to run a trial run of the new function, but it appears it has not been included in the user's profile. The reason could be that the user is not auto-assessed, or the taxman will add it on the platform closer to the beginning of the tax season. ALSO READ: Sars records increase in taxpayers who filed returns Auto assessment The system selects taxpayers that it will auto-assess based on the information received from third parties. These include employers, medical schemes, banks, and retirement funds. 'We then use such data to populate your income tax return and calculate your income tax assessment. If we are satisfied that the data and tax calculation are correct, we issue the assessment to you through eFiling or the SARS MobiApp. 'At the same time, we also send you a message to your preferred channel of communication (such as SMS or email) to let you know that your assessment on eFiling or the SARS MobiApp is ready for you to review,' said Sars. Refunds The taxman said refunds of R100 or more will be paid automatically within 72 hours. Refunds of less than R100 will be added to your account and paid out when your account balance exceeds R100. You can check your refund status on WhatsApp (0800 11 7277), Sars MobiApp, or by dialling *134*7277#. 'Debt of R100 or more must be paid by the due date. If the Debt is less than R100 you can choose whether to pay it now or let it be carried over to the next tax year. Remember, interest is payable on any debt, whether less than R100, or R100 or more.' Those who are auto-assessed by the taxman will receive a notification from Sars between 7 and 20 July. Taxpayers who did not receive a notification during that period are encouraged to submit their tax returns with accurate information from 21 July till 20 October. NOW READ: Two-pot retirement system: Almost 4 million withdrawals close to R57 billion
IOL News
31-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Point of view: understanding the impact of eFiling fraud on South African taxpayers
Discover the troubling findings of the Tax Ombud's eFiling Profile Hijacking survey, revealing the extent of fraud affecting South African taxpayers and the urgent need for improved security measures. Image: Ziphozonke Lushaba / Independent Newspapers The latest findings from the Tax Ombud's eFiling Profile Hijacking survey paint a stark picture of the vulnerabilities within South Africa's tax system. The Tax Ombud, Yanga Mputa, presented these findings this week. The numbers alone tell a worrying story: nearly half of the respondents were registered tax practitioners, while a significant portion, 32.7%, were individual taxpayers. The hijacking of tax profiles is not a minor inconvenience; it is a direct assault on the integrity of Sars, the security of taxpayers, and the trust that businesses and individuals place in the tax system. Alarmingly, a significant portion of those surveyed had firsthand experience with eFiling hijacking, with 41% reporting that they encountered this form of fraud. Meanwhile, 38% of tax practitioners had clients who fell victim to it, and 21% had witnessed it happening to someone else. These figures highlight that this is not a niche issue affecting a handful of unlucky taxpayers—it is widespread and systemic. The types of tax affected provide further insight into the nature of these attacks. Personal Income Tax was the primary target, making up 65% of reported cases, followed by VAT at 20% and Company Income Tax at 15%. This underscores the fact that individuals, rather than corporations, bear the brunt of eFiling fraud. The financial implications are severe: fraud amounts ranged from sums below R10 000 to staggering figures exceeding R1 million. For many victims, this is not just a bureaucratic headache, it is financial devastation. What is even more concerning is the response-or lack thereof—from authorities. More than half (52%) of the respondents did not report the matter to the police, and an additional 23% did not even know if they should. This raises critical questions about law enforcement's ability to assist victims and deter perpetrators. Even among those who did report their cases, the question remains: What action, if any, was taken? The survey further reveals the enabling factors behind these fraudulent activities: internal fraud and insider involvement, a lack of cybersecurity safeguards, system vulnerabilities, and ineffective response mechanisms from Sars itself. The fraudulent modification of banking details adds another layer to the crisis, demonstrating how easily financial data can be exploited. There is an urgent need for improved security measures and greater education and awareness of the risks. Sars, the institution tasked with protecting taxpayers, does not emerge unscathed from this report. While 71% of respondents attempted to report their cases to Sars, only 11% found the response to be effective. A staggering 89% of those affected indicated that Sars' intervention did little to resolve the issue. The failures range from a lack of communication and responsiveness to inefficiency and delays. Improved security measures, more thorough investigations, and a strengthened customer support framework should be the starting point. The most damning statistic of all is the assessment of Sars' communication and interaction following the discovery of fraud: 82% of respondents found it inadequate and ineffective. The victims of eFiling hijacking deserve better, swift action, transparency, and assurance that their financial records are secure. The findings of the survey make it clear: eFiling hijacking is a pressing issue that demands immediate attention. Addressing this challenge effectively is crucial to maintaining confidence in the tax system and ensuring taxpayers feel secure. Sars has an opportunity to strengthen its processes, enhance its responsiveness, and implement robust measures that protect individuals and businesses alike. By taking decisive action, it can reaffirm public trust and demonstrate its commitment to safeguarding taxpayer information. A proactive and transparent approach will go a long way in preventing further exploitation and ensuring the integrity of the system. * Maleke is the editor of Personal Finance PERSONAL FINANCE
