Latest news with #PharosEnergy
Zawya
23-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Egypt: Petroelum Ministry completes bid evaluation for 7 oil, gas areas
Arab Finance: The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has completed the evaluation of bids for seven new oil and gas exploration and production areas, offered through the Egypt Upstream Gateway (EUG), as per a statement. The agreements will bring in new investments and include the drilling of at least 17 exploratory wells, as part of the ministry's ongoing strategy to attract investment and boost production. The awarded areas fall under the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC). Cheiron has been awarded the North Sitra and East Sidi Barrani areas, where it plans to drill four exploratory wells. Apache won the West Knais K block in the Western Desert and is expected to drill several wells to support development work aimed at increasing production under an integrated agreement. Pharos Energy secured the South Abu Senan area, and will drill three wells. IPR Energy Group has been granted the South Wadi El Rayan block, with a commitment to drill three wells. Meanwhile, a consortium of NPC and GHP has been awarded the G and HNW blocks in the mature fields operated by the GPC, with plans to drill seven wells in total to enhance output. The ministry also announced that four new offshore blocks in the Mediterranean Sea, offered through a bid by the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS), are expected to be awarded soon, with evaluations currently underway. To continue expanding investment opportunities, the EUG is currently offering several undeveloped offshore fields in the Mediterranean, along with new exploration blocks in the Western Desert and the Gulf of Suez. The bidding round for these blocks will close on July 2nd, 2025, and results will be announced following the evaluation of submitted bids. © 2020-2023 Arab Finance For Information Technology. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Yahoo
27-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysts Just Slashed Their Pharos Energy plc (LON:PHAR) EPS Numbers
Today is shaping up negative for Pharos Energy plc (LON:PHAR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. Following the downgrade, the consensus from four analysts covering Pharos Energy is for revenues of US$115m in 2025, implying a chunky 16% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to crater 68% to US$0.019 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$132m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.057 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well. View our latest analysis for Pharos Energy Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$0.60 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Pharos Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$0.76 and the most bearish at US$0.27 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business. Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 1.2% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 16% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 0.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Pharos Energy to suffer worse than the wider industry. The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Pharos Energy. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Pharos Energy after the downgrade. Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Pharos Energy analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here. Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
28-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Pharos Energy plc (LON:PHAR)
Pharos Energy's estimated fair value is UK£0.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of UK£0.23 suggests Pharos Energy is potentially trading close to its fair value The US$0.47 analyst price target for PHAR is 89% more than our estimate of fair value Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Pharos Energy plc (LON:PHAR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. View our latest analysis for Pharos Energy We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$25.6m US$31.9m US$22.7m US$15.3m US$8.20m US$5.95m US$4.84m US$4.25m US$3.91m US$3.72m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -27.50% Est @ -18.56% Est @ -12.30% Est @ -7.92% Est @ -4.85% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% US$23.7 US$27.4 US$18.0 US$11.2 US$5.6 US$3.8 US$2.8 US$2.3 US$2.0 US$1.7 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$99m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.7m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.9%– 2.3%) = US$68m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$68m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= US$32m The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$130m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 6.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pharos Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.095. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market. Opportunity Expected to breakeven next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Threat Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable. Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years. Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Pharos Energy, we've compiled three additional items you should explore: Risks: Take risks, for example - Pharos Energy has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PHAR's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Pharos Energy (LON:PHAR) investors are sitting on a loss of 29% if they invested five years ago
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Pharos Energy plc (LON:PHAR) share price up 17% in a single quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. After all, the share price is down 36% in that time, significantly under-performing the market. With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies. See our latest analysis for Pharos Energy Given that Pharos Energy didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size. In the last five years Pharos Energy saw its revenue shrink by 0.6% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price decline at a rate of 6% per year is disappointing. But it doesn't surprise given the falling revenue. Without profits, its hard to see how shareholders win if the revenue keeps falling. You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image). Take a more thorough look at Pharos Energy's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet. It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Pharos Energy, it has a TSR of -29% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! We're pleased to report that Pharos Energy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 26% over one year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 5% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Pharos Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Pharos Energy that you should be aware of. If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
