Latest news with #PhilipLane
Zawya
11-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
ECB's Schnabel sets bar 'very high' for rate cut as economy holds up
FRANKFURT - The hurdle for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank is "very high" as the euro zone economy is holding up better than expected despite uncertainty over trade, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Friday. Having halved its policy rate in just a year, the ECB has signalled it will now stay put and see how the economy copes with a simmering global trade war stoked by U.S. President Donald Trump. Schnabel expressed a clear preference for keeping rates steady as inflation was moored at ECB's 2% target, the euro zone economy was proving resilient and more government spending in Germany was brightening the outlook. "Inflation is projected to be at 2% and inflation expectations are well anchored," Schnabel told financial newswire Econostream. "In view of this, our interest rates are also in a good place, and the bar for another rate cut is very high." The ECB cut its policy rate to 2% last month - a level that Schnabel said was "becoming accommodative". The ECB's official range for the neutral rate, which is neither accommodative nor restrictive, is 1.75% to 2.25%. She said she would only back a cut if she saw "signs of a material deviation of inflation" from 2% and spoke against "fine-tuning" the rate in response to data such as swings in oil prices. The ECB's chief economist Philip Lane also said recently that the central bank would react to "material" changes in the euro zone's inflation outlook and ignore "tiny" ones. Striking a different tone to some of her colleagues, Schnabel played down recent strength in the euro's exchange rate, saying its "pass-through" to inflation would be limited and it reflected an improved economic outlook. "It seems that the uncertainty is weighing less on economic activity than we thought, and on top of that, we're expecting a large fiscal impulse that will further support the economy," she said. "So overall, the risks to the growth outlook in the euro area are now more balanced." She argued tariffs would prove inflationary over the medium term because of higher costs and less efficient supply chains, "which are not included in our standard projection models". (Reporting by Francesco Canepa. Editing by Alison Williams and Mark Potter)
Reuters
09-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
ECB warns of risks beyond tariffs: from security to capital flows
BRUSSELS, July 9 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will consider risks beyond trade tariffs, from security concerns to potential penalties on foreign investors, when it assesses the global landscape, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday. "This uncertainty extends beyond the calibration of new tariff regimes and includes the possibility of a broader set of non-tariff barriers, a deeper intertwining of economic policies and security policies and possible revisions to the treatment of foreign portfolio investors and foreign direct investors," Lane told an event in Brussels.
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ECB warns of risks beyond tariffs: from security to capital flows
BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will consider risks beyond trade tariffs, from security concerns to potential penalties on foreign investors, when it assesses the global landscape, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday. "This uncertainty extends beyond the calibration of new tariff regimes and includes the possibility of a broader set of non-tariff barriers, a deeper intertwining of economic policies and security policies and possible revisions to the treatment of foreign portfolio investors and foreign direct investors," Lane told an event in Brussels.
CNBC
01-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Euro zone inflation edges higher, hitting ECB's 2% target in June
Euro zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat, meaning consumer prices in the single currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to come in at 2% in the twelve months to June. Euro zone inflation had fallen by more than expected to 1.9% in May. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, was unchanged at 2.3% in June. The closely watched services inflation print picked up to 3.3% in June, after cooling significantly in May to 3.2%, down from a 4% reading in April. Individual inflation prints released in the last week by major euro zone economies showed an easing in the harmonized inflation rate in Germany, a small rise in France and Spain, but no change in Italy in June — indicating that the wider euro area reading would have likely edged toward the 2% level targeted by the ECB. That has further stoked expectations that the central bank will opt to cut interest rates in the third quarter. The ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane told CNBC on Tuesday that he believed the latest period of monetary policy interventions to bring inflation in check is "done." "We do think the last cycle is done, bringing inflation down from the peak of 10[%], back to 2%, that element is over, but on a forward-looking basis we do need to stand ready to make sure that any deviation we see does not become embedded, does not change the medium-term picture," Lane said in an interview with CNBC's Annette Weisbach at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. The ECB needs to remain data-dependent but will not respond to any isolated "blip" in inflation going forward, Lane said. Analysts have warned that external factors could still upset the disinflation trajectory, however, with persistently high services inflation, recent volatility in oil prices on the back of conflict in the Middle East and potential U.S. trade tariffs all cited as concerns. If economic shocks fail to materialize in the next few months and the disinflationary trend continues, however, economists believe the central bank is on course to hold rates steady at its next meeting in July, but could opt for a rate cut in September.
Irish Independent
30-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Inflation ticks back up as food prices hit home
That means price rises have accelerated from the rate of 1.4pc in Ireland in the 12 months to June. Prices increased by 0.5pc between May and June. Energy prices are estimated to have fallen by 0.2pc in the month and to be down 1.8pc over the 12 months to June 2025. Food prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3pc in the last month and by 4.3pc in the last 12 months. The HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food is estimated to have gone up by 1.9pc since June 2024. Inflation remains dramatically below the double digit levels seen in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine that triggered a wave of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes. The ECB has indicated that it sees inflation as effectively contained but higher food prices are impacting consumer sentiment in Ireland, recent surveys show. However. data due on Tuesday is now expected to show euro-area inflation accelerated for the first time since the start of the year over the past month. A Bloomberg survey fond economists expect annualised inflation in the euro area to come in at 2pc when it is announced on Tuesday, up from last month's 1.9pc rate. An underlying measure that strips out volatile elements like energy is tipped to remain at 2.3pc when Eurostat publishes data on Tuesday. ECB chief economist Philip Lane said last week that the process of bringing inflation back to target is "largely completed." ECB staff see inflation settling at 2pc in the medium term, following a dip below that level in 2026. Data on Friday showed inflation inched up in France and Spain in the last month. Meanwhile, separate CSO data on Monday shows the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.6pc in May and increased by 1.6pc in the last 12 months . Excluding motor trades, the monthly volume of retail sales was up by 0.5pc in May.
