Latest news with #PhillyFed
Business Standard
23-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Markets Eye Modest Gains Amid Mideast Tensions, Mixed Global Data
U.S. futures point higher as traders watch Israel-Iran conflict; Philly Fed signals weak growth, gold dips sharply and Asia-Europe markets diverge. The Nasdaq inched up 25.18 points (0.1%) to 19,546.27, the S&P 500 edged down 1.85 points or less than a tenth of a perecnt to 5,980.87 and the Dow slipped 44.14 points (0.1%) to 42,171.66. The major index futures are currently pointing to a modestly higher open for the markets, with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.2%. Stocks may open higher as traders closely monitor the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. The White House is expected to decide within two weeks whether to support Israeli military actions. As the conflict enters its eighth day, both nations continue to exchange missile and drone attacks. The Philly Fed reported its diffusion index for current general activity remained unchanged in June at -4.0, signaling continued contraction. Economists had expected a slight improvement to -1.0. Looking ahead, future indicators show weaker growth expectations, with the future activity index plunging to 18.3 from 47.2 in May. The Conference Board will release its report on leading economic indicators in the month of May. The leading economic index is expected to edge down by 0.1% in May after slumping by 1% in April. Asia-Pacific stocks turned in a mixed performance. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index dipped by 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped by 1.3% South Korea's Kospi surged by 1.5%. The major European markets have all moved to the upside on the day while the German DAX Index is up by 1.6%, the French CAC 40 Index is up by 1.0% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index is up by 0.5%. In commodities trading, crude oil futures are edging up $0.16 to $75.30 a barrel after rising $0.30 to $75.14 a barrel on Wednesday. Meanwhile, after inching up $1.20 to $3,408.10 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are tumbling $44.50 to $3,363.60 an ounce. On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 145.47 yen versus the 145.45 yen it fetched on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1524 compared to yesterday's $1.1495.
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Pre-Markets Climb on Rate Cut Visibility
Friday, June 20, 2025We finish off the trading week after a nice edge-of-summer break for Juneteenth yesterday. Pre-market indexes are climbing a quarter-point to a third of a point higher at this hour, with the small-cap Russell 2000 already up more than +1%. Only the Russell is up over the past five trading days, but the other indexes are Dow is up +114 points right now, with the S&P 500 +14. The Nasdaq is +62 points at this hour, with the Russell +25 points. Currently, only the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up (marginally) year to date. Bond yields are remaining in place, more or less: +4.44% on the 10-year, +3.95% on the 2-year and +4.94% on the 30-year. Headline Philly Fed manufacturing came in at -4.0 for June, equalling the prior month's level and notching the third-straight month lower. Business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders and prices paid were all lower last month. And the Employment Index sank lower than expected, to -9.8. This could be seen as a further indication of a softening labor market in the traders are not missing this opportunity: a sinking Employment Index, while a relatively minor part of the Philly Fed Index (which focuses on the region around Philadelphia and the goods-producing sector there), do point to an opening for the Fed to lower interest rates at some point in the future. But the Fed would have to see demonstrably worse employment numbers first. We will most certainly track this new infusion of positivity into the stock market; it may even bring us a positive trading week over all, depending on the size of gains. We also have to keep our eyes and ears open about potential trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline, as well as any new developments in the Middle East, on which President Trump has cooled his rhetoric (with yet another self-imposed deadline of two weeks before making a decision on whether to make a move on Iran).After today's open, the latest U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report will come out for the month of May. Expectations are for a headline to drift marginally negative: -0.1%, from a deeper -1.0% for April and -0.8% for March. We are now scraping 9-year lows on LEI — well off the late 2021/early 2022 April, all components were lower except Lending Credit and Manufacturing New Orders, both of which were up marginally. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has fully recovered from Covid-era lows to keep its upward trajectory. While the LEI is a leading indicator for growth, the CEI reflects current economic conditions. It's a big data week starting on Monday. Various prints on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — a week from today — will all be hitting the tape. PCE levels in particular are important, as they tend to have a pronounced effect on future Fed monetary policy or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Philly Fed Ticks in Lower Than Expected
We finish off the trading week after a nice edge-of-summer break for Juneteenth yesterday. Pre-market indexes are climbing a quarter-point to a third of a point higher at this hour, with the small-cap Russell 2000 already up more than +1%. Only the Russell is up over the past five trading days, but the other indexes are approaching. The Dow is up +114 points right now, with the S&P 500 +14. The Nasdaq is +62 points at this hour, with the Russell +25 points. Currently, only the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up (marginally) year to date. Bond yields are remaining in place, more or less: +4.44% on the 10-year, +3.95% on the 2-year and +4.94% on the 30-year. Headline Philly Fed manufacturing came in at -4.0 for June, equalling the prior month's level and notching the third-straight month lower. Business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders and prices paid were all lower last month. And the Employment Index sank lower than expected, to -9.8. This could be seen as a further indication of a softening labor market in the U.S. Pre-market traders are not missing this opportunity: a sinking Employment Index, while a relatively minor part of the Philly Fed Index (which focuses on the region around Philadelphia and the goods-producing sector there), do point to an opening for the Fed to lower interest rates at some point in the future. But the Fed would have to see demonstrably worse employment numbers first. We will most certainly track this new infusion of positivity into the stock market; it may even bring us a positive trading week over all, depending on the size of gains. We also have to keep our eyes and ears open about potential trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline, as well as any new developments in the Middle East, on which President Trump has cooled his rhetoric (with yet another self-imposed deadline of two weeks before making a decision on whether to make a move on Iran). After today's open, the latest U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report will come out for the month of May. Expectations are for a headline to drift marginally negative: -0.1%, from a deeper -1.0% for April and -0.8% for March. We are now scraping 9-year lows on LEI — well off the late 2021/early 2022 highs. For April, all components were lower except Lending Credit and Manufacturing New Orders, both of which were up marginally. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has fully recovered from Covid-era lows to keep its upward trajectory. While the LEI is a leading indicator for growth, the CEI reflects current economic conditions. It's a big data week starting on Monday. Various prints on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — a week from today — will all be hitting the tape. PCE levels in particular are important, as they tend to have a pronounced effect on future Fed monetary policy decisions. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Business Mayor
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Crypto Bulls Just Got Their Macro Wake-Up Call: Here's Why
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. An unprecedented surge in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has jolted global risk markets and given crypto asset traders their clearest macro catalyst of the year. The Future New Orders diffusion index leapt by forty-plus points, a move that Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), called 'literally' historic. Crypto Bulls Can Rejoice Bittel's commentary on X framed the print with statistical precision: 'Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday – and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally. … Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded – going all the way back to the index's inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move. He underlined the shock with a comparison few macro watchers will forget: For perspective: that's an even bigger move up than the downside collapse during the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-4.1σ). Let that sink in…' Philly Fed Future New Orders | Source: X @BittelJulien Bittel then set the surge in a broader narrative that has animated his research since late last year. 'Q1 growth was weak. The reason is straightforward – financial conditions tightened sharply in Q4. The dollar ripped, bond yields surged… a classic tightening phase,' he wrote. Related Reading The proximate trigger, in his telling, was 'businesses panic‑loading inventories ahead of Trump tariffs, and markets front‑running the inflation narrative.' Those dynamics, he argued, are a replay of Donald Trump's first term: 'We've highlighted repeatedly: this had all the hallmarks of Q4 2016 during Trump's first term. Just like early 2017, that tightening spilled over into slower growth momentum in Q1.' Where 2017 began with doubt and ended in a synchronous global boom, Bittel believes 2025 is rhyming. 'Those Q1 headwinds have flipped into Q2 tailwinds,' he insisted. 'Everything flows downstream from changes in financial conditions… Purchasing managers' expectations are shifting – and shifts in thinking eventually translate into action. Sentiment shifts first. Action follows. It always does. Bullish.' The crypto market responded muted. Bitcoin reclaimed the $104,000 level in early‑European trade, but lost it later on. Ether steadied near $2,600, and high‑beta layer‑one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche moved in tandem. Related Reading Giancarlo Cudrig, head of markets at Immutable, said the scale of the shock is less important than how under‑positioned investors are for an upside growth surprise. 'An upside economic shock like this – +4.3σ on new orders – is rare. But the bigger story is market positioning. Asset prices are not prepared. The melt‑up is the asymmetric risk. Now it's being repriced.' Independent analyst Market Heretic struck a similar note on X: 'When this dropped, markets didn't even blink. Because the shift's already in motion. This wasn't news, it was confirmation. That's the real tell, when markets shrug off a four‑sigma upside shock. It means the turn is already upon us – and it's just getting started.' Read More Whales Hoard $90 Million In Bitcoin: A Sign Of What's To Come? For crypto investors, the implications are immediate. A softer dollar and retreating real‑yield expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets, while the early phase of a reflationary turn historically favours high‑beta exposures. Bittel's own playbook is unambiguous: 'Sentiment shifts first. Action follows.' As long as that chain reaction continues, the crypto bulls appear to have both math and momentum on their side. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.28 trillion. Total market cap, 1-week chart | Source: TOTAL on Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A record number of Americans are only making their minimum credit card payment
Over 11% of Americans with accounts at the country's largest banks only made the minimum payment on their credit card bill in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began tracking the number 12 years ago. Lower-income consumers have been under increasing pressure since inflation surged to four-decade highs following the pandemic, and price hikes from tariffs will further strain budgets. Credit card data shows consumers are under increasing pressure, just as President Donald Trump's tariffs are poised to significantly raise costs on everyday consumers. Over 11% of Americans with accounts at the country's largest banks only made the minimum payment on their credit card bills in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began tracking the number 12 years ago. The Philly Fed's data, published earlier this month, was highlighted over the weekend by Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private equity giant Apollo. A report from the firm coauthored by Sløk said trade disruptions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could cause a full-on recession by the summer. A growing number of consumers are already vulnerable as delinquency rates rise: The share of credit card accounts 90 days past due also set a record. 'Collectively, these trends, along with a new series high for revolving card balances, indicate greater consumer stress,' Philly Fed analysts Jeremy Cohn and Brandon Goldstein wrote. View this interactive chart on Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, believes a downturn is imminent if the Fed does not cut interest rates. Along with boosting overall economic activity, that would make it easier for people to pay off their credit card debt. 'So you're seeing kind of the normal rotation,' he told Fortune. 'Investment spending drops. Labor market weakens up. Consumers spend less.' Still, people likely won't cut back astronomically, he said, even in a recession. After all, if more Americans are struggling to pay off their entire balance, it means they are still buying. 'Usually what we say is that consumers consume just like woodchucks chuck wood,' said Hatfield, who manages ETFs and a series of hedge funds. 'What we mean by that is that they're extremely resilient,' he added. 'The low end has to spend money, and the high end wants to spend money and can spend money.' To be sure, seasonal changes are part of the story: Credit card debt levels always rise amid holiday shopping. The data does emphasize, however, how economic developments over the last half decade have impacted high earners and lower-income individuals much differently. One example is credit access. The Philly Fed found firms have increased card limits for borrowers who qualify for larger credit lines. The 90th percentile of credit limits grew 5.4% year-over-year, the third-largest annual increase over the last 12 years. For the 50th percentile, however, card limits stayed level at an average of $5,000, a contraction in real terms due to inflation. A similar trend has played out with mortgages, with the 90th percentile of loans on bank balance sheets growing twice as fast as the median since the final quarter of 2019. For wealthy people, Hatfield said, post-pandemic inflation boosted home values and was easily outpaced by investment gains from a booming stock market. Lower-income consumers, however, have been forced to weather a significant increase in the cost of living as interest rates remain elevated. 'A huge part of society, they didn't benefit from that inflation,' Hatfield said. 'They got hammered by it.' Discontent over this situation has been widely credited for helping Trump land a second stint in the Oval Office. His fixation on using tariffs to reorient global trade and raise a growing share of America's revenues, however, may ultimately not sit well with people most exposed to higher prices. The Yale Budget Lab estimates Trump's announced tariffs, as of April 15, will cost the average household $4,900 in last year's dollars. Tariffs are a type of 'regressive tax,' which take a bigger chunk out of the budget from poorer households than from wealthier consumers who pay the same rate. 'It is going to put further pressure on low-income consumers, put the U.S. economy further at risk, and could eventually lead to a recession,' Hatfield said. On Sunday, Trump suggested tariff income could replace income taxes on households making less than $200,000 a year. Economists and tax-policy experts, including at the center-right Tax Foundation, have said that would be impossible. The White House did not respond to Fortune's request for comment. The chaotic rollout of tariffs has caused consumer sentiment to drop by more in three months than at any point since 1990, including the 2008 financial crisis. Year-end inflation expectations, meanwhile, came in highest since 1981, when price increases were just beginning to retreat after a ruinous spike. Executives from the likes of Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, and PepsiCo, meanwhile, have warned their businesses are already feeling the effects of people cutting back. After all, a growing number of consumers are struggling to pay off their credit card bills. Correction: This story was updated to clarify that the 90th percentile of credit card limits grew 5.4% year-over-year. This story was originally featured on
