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NBC Sports
9 hours ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Yusei Kikuchi turns it around, Jack Flaherty slips
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. Matthew Pouliot, Earlier in the season, I wrote about Yusei Kikuchi's confusing start to his tenure with the Angels, which included movement changes on his slider and a new arm slot. He wasn't bad in the early going, posting a 3.06 ERA in his first 12 starts; however, that came with a 12.3% walk rate that led to a 1.52 WHIP and just 58 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. That made him borderline unusable in fantasy leagues despite the good ERA. Then came this report from Jeff Fletcher at the beginning of June: Something to watch tonight: Yusei Kikuchi has seen his BB rate go up and K rate go down this year. Pitching coach Barry Enright told me they realized his grip on his slider and FB had changed from last year. Will be interesting to see if going back to the old grip helps. In five starts in June, Kikuchi has posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He has seen his walk rate shrink down to 7.1% while his strikeout rate has exploded to 32.3%. So has it all just been the grip change on the slider and fastball? The easy answer is no. Kikuchi's fastball has been a bit harder in June with just 0.5 inches more Induced Vertical Break (iVB) and an almost identical vertical approach angle to May. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is down on the pitch in June, as is his CSW, and his barrel rate allowed is the highest it's been at any point in the season. In truth, it seems like Kikuchi's fastball has actually been worse after this tweet. Similarly, as you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below, Kikuchi's slider hasn't changed much in June either. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard The vertical and horizontal movement is essentially the same as it was in May. The same goes for the velocity. The approach angles have shifted a little bit, but that might have more to do with Kikuchi raising his arm angle over two degrees in June. In fact, overall, Kikuchi has a 36-degree arm angle at release in June, which is up from 33 degrees in May. That's notable because his arm angle was 42 degrees last year, so he had dropped it considerably at the start of the season and may be working to get it back closer to last year. The biggest reason, in my opinion, for Kikuchi's success has been his reliance on the curveball. He threw the pitch 9% of the time in May but is now up to 21% usage in June. In his five starts this month, the curve has a 16.8% SwStr% and 38.3% CSW with just a 23.8% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR). It has been, unquestionably, his best pitch. Over this stretch in June, he has used it just 7.2% of the time to lefties and 25.3% of the time to righties, which makes some sense since he's throwing his slider to lefties nearly 53% of the time in June while posting a 19% SwStr%, so he doesn't really need the curveball to lefties. In June, Kikuchi is using the curve to righties both early in the count and late. It has a 66.7% early count usage but also a 29.3% two-strike usage. It's early called strike rate of 27.3% is fine but just barely above-average; yet, it's 31% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeout, is excellent. He has a solid 70% strike rate on the curve this month to righties, which means he's either getting it over the plate early in the count for weak contact or having them chase off the plate in two-strike counts for swings and misses. This has been crucial for him because, on the season, his slider has just a 10% SwStr% to righties and only a slightly above-average PutAway Rate, so he has needed the curve to pick up the slack. The curve has been his most-used early count pitch to righties in June, with the changeup being his second most-used early count pitch this month. Kikuchi has a 67% strike rate on the changeup to righties with a 16.4% SwStr% and 44% ICR, so going changeup/curve heavy early in the count to righties has helped and has also allowed him to save his four-seam fastball more for two-strike counts. In June, he used his four-seamer 38% of the time in two-strike counts to righties; however, it has just a 6.3% PutAway Rate, which is much lower than the 31% PutAway Rate it's had to lefties this past month. At the end of the day, this feels very similar to what Kikuchi did last year in the second half, but with him leaning on his curve this year instead of his slider. He has always been a streaky pitcher, so we know to use him during his hot streaks, but he doesn't feel fundamentally different here. He's using his slider aggressively against lefties and then turning to the four-seamer later in counts, and is using his curve and changeup early against righties while mixing in the four-seamer and slider later. It can work, and it has. But this doesn't feel like a new Yusei Kikuchi. If you look at Fangraph's leaderboard for June, you'll see Wrobleski among the leaders in SIERA. Over 26.1 innings in five appearances, Wrobleski has allowed eight earned runs on 22 hits with 26 strikeouts and six walks. That's a 2.73 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 3.00 SIERA. I felt that was worth investigating. Nick Pollack first put me onto some of Wrobleski's changes during an episode of our 'On the Corner' podcast. Nick's first point was the increase in fastball velocity. The left-hander averaged 95.1 mph on his four-seam fastball, but that's up to 96.6 mph over his five performances in June. That has also come with slightly more extension, but his 5.5-foot mark is well below league average with below-average raw movement. He does have a great Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle, which means that, from his release point, his four-seamer stays up more than most and almost seems to 'rise' as it approaches the plate. That's why it's nice that he uses it 60% of the time in the upper-third of the strike zone. He does a better job of getting it up and inside to lefties than to righties, but that's also to be expected. Another big change, as you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below, is that Wrobleski has lowered his arm angle almost five degrees from last season. That's a pretty substantial difference. The lower arm slot may have contributed to his increased extension and velocity, but we do know that it has likely impacted the change in his overall slider movement. Last year, he threw the pitch 87.4 mph with 2.6 inches of gloveside movement and 32.8 inches of drop, including gravity. This season, the pitch is slightly harder, with 3.2 inches of gloveside movement and nearly 35 inches of drop. As you'd expect, the lower arm slot has also altered the horizontal approach angle, which has led to far more groundballs and much weaker contact, in addition to a slight increase in swinging strike rate. In June, he threw the slider 30% of the time to lefties and nearly 18% of the time to righties. Righties see it primarily as a two-strike offering, with a 47% usage rate in those counts, and the pitch has a solid 27% PutAway Rate. Lefties get the pitch in all counts, with a 58% early count rate and a 39% two-strike rate, but it has just an 8.3% PutAway Rate against lefties in June, which is not ideal. That leads to the biggest issue with Wrobleski still. He has just a 6% SwStr% and 13.8% strikeout rate against lefties during this strong June run. He's primarily slider/sinker to lefties and mixes in his four-seam and curve, but none of those miss a ton of bats. He could perhaps get more swings and misses if he turns to the four-seamer more in two-strike counts, but it remains to be seen if he will. There has been marked improvement against righties this season. Some of that has to do with him getting rid of his sweeper and adding in a cutter. The cutter sits at 92.1 mph with just 1.2 inches of horizontal movement and 8.3 inches of 'rise' if you were to remove the effects of gravity. In June, Wrobleski used the cutter 73% of the time early in the count against righties. The pitch has an 85% true first-pitch strike rate but also a 40% chase rate in two-strike counts when he does choose to use it. The pitch has a 14.5% SwStr% and 30.6% CSW against righties in June with a 36% ICR. Using the cutter early in the count has set up the slider in two-strike counts, in addition to the four-seamer fastball, which he used 53% of the time in two-strike counts to righties in June. It also had a nearly 21% PutAway Rate, so that combination has been useful for him in two-strike situations. Another development for Wrobleski has been a revamped changeup, which is almost three mph harder with nearly six inches more vertical movement, when accounting for gravity, and less armside movement. The pitch has a lower zone rate but a slightly higher swinging strike rate. It's his fifth most-used pitch against righties, so it won't make or break him, but it's nice to see him possess such a deep arsenal against righties. It's unclear what role the Dodgers envision for Wrobleski, and I don't love his profile against lefties, but if he's going to stay in this piggyback role, he could be a useful option against right-handed-heavy lineups with a good chance of earning wins. This is more of a full-on pitch mix analysis for Burrows, which was inspired by the fact that he's 22nd in SIERA among all starting pitchers with at least 20 innings in June. In 26.1 innings last month, he had a 2.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.18 SIERA, with a 22% K-BB% that ranked 18th among that same leaderboard of starting pitchers. So is this something we can believe in? Well, for starters, Burrow has a 95 mph four-seamer with 16.5 inches of iVB. It's not a particularly flat fastball, so it doesn't miss many bats, but he throws it in the zone often and doesn't allow much hard contact. That's a good start. It is interesting to note that the graphic above shows that Burrows has lowered his arm angle quite significantly after his two appearances in May. It doesn't seem to have done much to the overall shape of his pitches, but it has shifted the attack angle on his pitches. His slider and changeup, in particular, have lost some of their vertical attack in place of horizontal attack angle with that lower arm angle. What's interesting is that both the slider and changeup are performing worse since the lower arm angle. The four-seamer is performing better, and that might be why he's going to it more often, upping his usage by 11% overall. In June, Burrows has gone to the four-seamer 45% of the time to righties while using the slider 34% of the time, the changeup 14% of the time, and the curve just over 7% of the time. The four-seamer is primarily his early count pitch, and we established that it's a solid one. The slider has also been used 72% of the time early in counts to righties. Considering it has just a 39% zone rate and 57% strike rate, I don't love him using it early in the count and would rather he use it late, considering it has a 33% PutAway Rate. However, I think that may have something to do with setting it up early. Overall, it's a fairly mediocre pitch. The changeup is better with a 12% SwStr% to righties in June, to go along with a 67% strike rate and a 44% ICR. He also uses it early in the count 63% of the time to righties but mixes it in 23.4% in two-strike counts, where it has a 31.4% chase rate and 37.3% PutAway Rate. Overall, it's a really solid offering, but it's not quite an ideal swing-and-miss pitch to righties, so Burrows is still missing that. However, his approach of four-seam and changeup over 80% of the time to lefties is one I can get behind. The changeup gets plenty of called strikes early against lefties but can also miss bats with two strikes. His curve has been used mostly early in the count to lefties, but it has just a 15% zone rate and 26% strike rate to lefties in June. It also doesn't miss many bats in two-strike counts, so it's just a show-me third pitch. At the end of the day, Burrows has a solid fastball and a good changeup that form a good foundation, but until he gets a two-strike whiff pitch and righties, he's going to be limited to being used primarily as a streamer against teams who aren't loaded with right-handed hitters who can hurt him. Back in April, I noted the changes that the Red Sox had made to Quinn Priester's arsenal and how I thought it would lead to some Tobias Myers-type of success in Milwaukee. ⚾️Quinn Priester trade returned lots of value for Boston, but they revamped his arsenal and then shipped him off to succeed elsewhere. They added a cutter, tightened up his SL and narrowed the wide movement gaps. It has a real Tobias Myers feel for MIL. It may have taken a bit of time, but Priester has been really good since the middle of May, posting a 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 38/7 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings. While some of that has to do with matchups against Colorado, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Minnesota, he also faced the Cardinals, Braves, and Phillies, and that Reds matchup was in Cincinnati. So what else could be the cause of his recent success? The first thing that stands out is that his cutter usage jumped back up in June, in addition to ticking back up in velocity. This was a new pitch that Boston added in the offseason, so it makes some sense that his usage of the pitch would fluctuate as the year went on. He has used the pitch just 13% of the time against righties during those last eight starts, but 27% of the time against lefties. It's not an elite pitch, registering just 91 mph with one inch of glove-side movement and more lift than the average cutter at that speed. However, he has tremendous control of the pitch, posting a 56% zone rate and 67% strike rate against lefties. He keeps it up in the zone often but doesn't just bury it inside, with a 43% outside rate against lefites over this stretch. However, that has also led to plenty of groundballs but a little bit more hard contact than I'd like to see, with a 60% ICR against lefties. Priester uses the cutter and sinker early in the count to lefties, which sets up a slider and curve as the two-strike offerings. He doesn't throw the curve often, but it has a 15.2% usage against lefties over his last eight starts with a 20% SwStr% and 29% PutAway Rate. I think he might be able to turn to that pitch more often to get swings-and-misses against lefties. However, that won't help him against righties. He rarely throws the curve to righties, so he often relies on the slider and cutter in two-strike counts. The cutter has a 6% PutAway rate against righties over his last eight starts, and the slider is also below average with an 11.3% mark. What the Brewers have done is narrow Priester's arsenal, getting rid of the changeup, and trying to get him to focus more on the cutter, slider, and sinker working off of one another to keep hitters off the barrel and induce weak contact. As I said in my tweet above, this strikes me as a similar path to what they did with Tobias Myers, but with fewer pitches. I think that makes Priester a fine option in deeper formats, but he's not going to miss enough bats to have huge fantasy appeal, and the high contact rates make him risky against good offenses. The last three starts of June were not kind to Jack Flaherty, who allowed 18 earned runs on 16 hits in 13 innings with 12 walks and 15 strikeouts. That's a 12.46 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, 22.4% strikeout rate, and 17.9% walk rate. Yikes! My first thought was to check and see if Flaherty was doing anything differently in June that might have led to this. If you just look at pitch usage and shapes, not much stands out as being different. He's leaned into his four-seam fastball more, but that has more to do with the lack of success of his breaking pitches (more on that later). We can see some difference in the shape of his curveball, which seems to have lost both vertical and horizontal break in June. Not much, but enough that it attracts our attention. The curve still had a 23.6% SwStr% in June, which is right in line with its usual numbers, and the barrel rate allowed was better than what the curve allowed in May. Yet, that change in curve shape may be connected to another option, which Nick Pollack suggested during one of our podcasts, that Flaherty may have simply been tipping his pitches. I discussed this earlier this year with Shane Baz, and he has since had a solid run of production. During these last three starts when we saw the change in shape on Flaherty's curve, the pitch had a 31% zone rate and 59% strike rate with a 50% swing rate against, an 87.5% zone contact rate, and an absurd 62.5% ICR. It still has a 22% SwStr%, but this is worth exploring. On the season, Flaherty's curve has a 30% zone rate and 60% strike rate with a 50% swing rate against, so those are basically the same numbers we're seeing in this three-game stretch. However, for the year, the curve has a 74% zone contact rate allowed and a 38.6% ICR. So the curve was in the zone as often and swung at as often, but hit far more often and much harder. Huh. Was it locations? Throughout the season, Flaherty's curve has been 60% gloveside to righties and 86.4% LoLoc% (Low location, meaning the bottom third of the strike zone). He's used it 48% of the time in two-strike counts to righties with a 31.6% PutAway Rate. Over this last three-game stretch, the PutAway Rate fell to 30%, so essentially the same, and he used it in two-strike counts just 36% of the time, but that may have just had to do with a lack of confidence. The pitch to righties was gloveside 68% of the time over that small sample and low 86% of the time, so the locations were pretty identical. To lefties, Flaherty has used the curve armside 45% of the time and gloveside 34% of the time, while keeping it low 84.5%. He's used it 52% of the time early in counts, and it has a 25% early called strike rate and 23% PutAway Rate. Over the last three-game stretch, the curve to lefies was armside 40% of the time and gloveside 33% of the time, while being low in the zone 77.5%. Perhaps you could argue that he hasn't been burying the curve to lefties as much, but the rest of the location profile is similar. He's still using it early in counts 57% of the time, with a 22% early called strike rate, and 21% PutAway Rate, so another instance where there doesn't seem to be a huge change in location and usage. All of that tells me that something was off with the curveball. Perhaps it was a minor change in shape. Perhaps hitters were able to spot something out of the hand and sit on the curve more effectively. However, nothing stands out to me as being a major red flag. The issue is just that Flaherty's slider has been struggling a bit since the start of May, so he can't afford his curve to get hit like this. Since May 3rd, Flaherty's slider has a 11% SwStr%, which is well below the 13.8% MLB average for a slider. It also has a 37% zone rate, 58% strike rate, and 44% ICR. All of those are about 5% below average or more. So if Flaherty's slider has been mediocre for 10 starts, and his fastball is an average pitch to begin with, that puts a lot of pressure on his curve to carry him. I don't think the curve is as bad as we've seen it recently, so I still think Flaherty can have some use as a streamer in good matchups, and I wouldn't outright cut him. However, I don't think you should feel that you need to hold Flaherty in shallower leagues if there are intriguing options on the wire.
NBC Sports
3 days ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Jurickson Profar returns, Jacob Lopez is on a heater
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs. For a player to qualify for this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types. Matthew Pouliot, Waiver Wire Hitters Jo Adell - OF, LAA: 36% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, POST-HYPE PROSPECT) I know we've done this a bunch with Adell in the past, and I'm not sure I buy it, but I do feel the need to point out that he's been playing well of late and he's still just 26 years old, so it would be foolish to assume he's a finished product. In 24 games in June, Adell is batting .274/.358/.670 with 11 home runs, 18 runs scored, and 18 RBI. His strikeout rate has settled around 25% over that span, which isn't ideal but is an improvement for him. However, you're adding him for the 11 home runs in 24 games. His power is unquestioned, and if he can just hit .240 the rest of the way, he could be a big addition to your fantasy teams. Over the last three weeks, his roster rate has climbed from 6%, so I'd imagine he won't make the cut next week. Another option if you're looking for power is Kyle Stowers - OF, MIA (28% rostered). Stowers is proving to be a particularly streaky hitter in his first big league season, but that's not a shock from somebody who is primarily a power bat. He had a prolonged cold stretch from late May into early June, but Stowers has homered in three of his last seven games and has gone 11-for-39 (.282) over his last 13 games with three home runs, 10 runs scored, and seven RBI. The lineup context isn't great, hence the seven RBI on three home runs, but if you're in deeper formats and need power or just want to ride his hot stretch until it flames out, go for it. Cam Smith - 3B/OF, HOU: 33% rostered (PROSPECT GROWTH, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) Last week, I recorded a full video on why you should add Cam Smith, so you should check that out for more details than I can give in here, but I was optimistic that Smith would start to add back in some lift and power to his swing now that he had gotten confident with consistent contact. Additionally, if we use Pitcher List's Process+ stat, which measures the combined value of a hitter's Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power, Smith has a Process+ score of 110. 100 is the league average, so we love to see that. Another option for primarily batting average is Ernie Clement - 2B/SS/3B - TOR (30% rostered). Clement is hitting .368/.411/.483 in 23 games in June with one home run, 17 runs scored, four RBI, and one steal. The 29-year-old has proved himself to be a solid batting average asset last season, and his multi-position eligibility makes him valuable in deeper leagues, even if he's not giving you much power or speed right now. Jurickson Profar - OF, ATL: 32% rostered (IMPENDING RETURN, COUNTING STATS UPSIDE) This is the week. Despite the fact that I think the rule is stupid, Profar is allowed to play in rehab games even though he was suspended for 80 games for breaking league rules. Whatever. It's dumb. But he can return on July 2nd, which is Wednesday. When he comes back, he figures to be the regular left fielder in Atlanta, so he's probably worth an add in all formats to see what he can do without the PEDs. Lane Thomas - OF, CLE (23% rostered) also seems to be turning things around a bit. People love to pile on Thomas because he was terrible when the Guardians acquired him last year, but he eventually settled in and hit .264 in 25 games in September with seven home runs, 13 runs scored, and 20 RBI, and then was good in the playoffs. I think we forget about that stretch. He was cold to start this season, but he played just 8 games before getting hurt. He gritted it out for five more games before landing on the IL. He came back for four games and then got hurt again, so the rhythm to the season has been a mess for him. Over the last week, he's gone 5-for-18 with two home runs, four RBI, two runs scored, and two steals. Perhaps he's starting to settle in? Michael Toglia: 1B/OF, COL: 22% rostered (STARTING JOB, POWER UPSIDE) Toglia is certainly more of a schedule-based add. I recorded a video explaining why I'm not really excited to add him in fantasy here. I just think his strikeout rates and contact issues are going to continue to be a problem. However, he has tons of power, and Colorado's next six games are in Coors Field and the six after that are in Fenway Park and Great American Ballpark, so these could be a solid two weeks of offense for Colorado. You could also add Mickey Moniak - OF, COL (11% rostered), who is hitting .292/.358/.750 over 15 games in June with six home runs, 12 RBI, 10 runs scored, and two steals. We've seen him go through these hot streaks before, and his strikeout rate remains high, so I don't expect this type of production to last, but he's seeing the ball well and has that same strong schedule that we mentioned with Toglia. Evan Carter - OF, TEX: 21% rostered (POST HYPE PROSPECT, HOT STRETCH) Kennedi Landry had a good piece on Evan Carter last week, highlighting some of the changes that have led to his strong performance since coming off the He admitted to putting a lot of pressure on himself after his injury, and cited playing looser and feeling like he had a better mental approach at the plate. In June, Carter is hitting .310/.403/.517 in 19 games with three homers, eight RBI, 11 runs scored, and three steals. We do know that Texas is not likely to play him against many lefties, so that could limit his value in weekly leagues, and he seems to get banged up quite frequently, so he remains an injury risk, but Carter is just 22 years old and has plenty of fantasy juice if he can stay healthy. An option primarily for batting average, who I have had on this list all season, is Jake Meyers - OF, HOU (12% rostered). Earlier this season, I published an article on hitters who were being more aggressive and swinging at the first pitch more often this year than last year. Myers popped up for me on that leaderboard, and I explained in detail why I'm a fan of his new approach. On the season, he's hitting .307 with 13 stolen bases, and he's slashing .337/.398/.386 in 23 games in June with 12 runs scored and five steals. That's valuable in most formats, as long as you don't need power or RBI. Nolan Schanuel - 1B, LAA: 18% rostered (BATTING AVERAGE ASSET, POTENTIAL POWER GROWTH) I've always liked Schanuel. He has tremendous plate discipline. He makes an elite amount of contact. He pulls the ball enough to do damage, and I think he's trying to be more selective in getting pitches he can drive. The power numbers aren't great, but Schanuel now hits at the top of a batting order that includes Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Taylor Ward, and Logan O'Hoppe. It's not a bad spot, and he has delivered of late, going .277/.352/.479 in 23 games in June with four home runs, 11 runs scored, 18 RBI, and two steals. That's a little bit of help in all five categories. I think Schanuel is emerging as a 1B who I may target in 2026 drafts. Brooks Lee - 2B/3B/SS, MIN: 18% rostered (BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE, CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME) Lee is another solid multi-position eligible player who has remained in the lineup even as the Twins have gotten healthy. With Royce Lewis on the IL with yet another lower-body injury, that should keep Lee as an everyday player in Minnesota, and, frankly, he has played enough to remain in the lineup even when Lewis does come back. Lee is hitting .365/.393/.533 in 23 games in June with four home runs, 11 runs scored, 16 RBI, and one steal. Interestingly, his power boom in June has come when he started pulling the ball LESS and hitting it in the air less, so I'm not sure if it will last, but he has a 28% line drive rate in June, and hard-hit line drives can leave the park too. I'd be primarily adding him for batting average, but some power may come too. If you're trying to get ahead of a hot stretch, Colt Keith - 1B/2B, DET (10% rostered) is a name to look at. Since June 1st, Colt Keith is 6th among all hitters who have seen at least 100 pitches in Process+. He's hitting .250/.324/.433 in 20 games over that stretch with two home runs, six runs scored, and eight RBI, but the swing decisions and contact suggest that those numbers should just continue to get better. Tyler Freeman - SS/OF, COL: 15% rostered (REGULAR STARTING ROLE, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) Yes, another Rockies hitter. We talked about the schedule earlier, but we've also seen Freeman emerge as the regular right fielder for the Rockies since being called up. He has hit .324/.409/.432 in 41 games with nine stolen bases and 20 runs scored. Freeman had a solid enough season last year for Cleveland, and moving to Colorado should help him. Freeman makes a lot of contact, but the hard contact is limited, and his BABIP has been low in years past. Coors Field tends to boost BABIP, so Freeman could emerge as a .270 hitter with some decent speed and multi-position eligibility. Freeman is also 15th in Process+ since June 1st, so the stats are backed up by a strong approach. Another multi-position option is Caleb Durbin - 2B/3B/SS, MIL (6% rostered), who has hit .292/.366/.444 in 21 games in June with three home runs, 17 runs scored, and eight RBI. I would like to see more steals, since that's been Durbin's calling card in the minors, but it's nice to see the rookie adjusting to MLB pitching and starting to get on base more often. I think the steals will come. Parker Meadows - OF, DET: 11% rostered (POWER/SPEED UPSIDE, RETURN FROM THE IL) Meadows has struggled since coming off the IL, but I often think that we're too quick to turn away from a player just because he doesn't hit the ground running. Adjusting to MLB pitching is hard, even if you've been at this level before. Meadows was out for almost three months; it's going to take some time for him to get his rhythm back. He's a talented hitter and is playing pretty much every day in Detroit, and has gone 5-for-20 over his last six games, so may be starting to put it together a bit. I would still try to scoop him up before he gets hot. You could also add his teammate Wenceel Pérez - OF, DET (7% rostered), who is hitting .288/.338/.616 in 22 games in June with five home runs, 14 RBI, and 13 runs scored. He also hit .242 with nine home runs and nine steals in 112 games as a rookie last season. He's the everyday right fielder in Detroit right now, and I don't see that changing unless his production falls off a cliff. Kyle Teel - C, CWS: 6% rostered (PROSPECT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) Kyle Teel has entered a bit of a timeshare with Edgar Quero, which is not an ideal situation, but I think Teel has more offensive upside. He slashed .295/.394/.492 in 50 games at Triple-A with eight home runs and seven steals, and struggled when he first got called up but has gone 9-for-29 (.310) over his last 10 games with two runs scored. I believe in his approach at the plate and his overall skill set, so I think he'll continue to adjust to big league pitching, and he's worth a look in all two-catcher leagues. If you're looking for an option in a two-catcher format, you can go with Gary Sanchez - C, BAL (7% rostered), who figures to be the starting catcher in Baltimore with Adley Rutschman landing on the IL. The veteran will be more valuable against left-handed pitching, but he has gone 13-for-34 (.382) in 10 games since coming off the IL with four home runs, 10 runs scored, and 14 RBI. That will play in most league types, and with Rutschman not back until after the All-Star Break, that's almost another month of time with Sanchez as the primary starter. Christian Moore - 2B, LAA: 6% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE) Moore hit two home runs in a win over the Red Sox this week, but he also went just 4-for-20 on the week, which is essentially what you're getting with him. The rookie struggled to start the season in Double-A, but was playing solid in Triple-A and had a .279/.374/.422 slash line in 54 games across Double-A and Triple-A with five home runs and eight steals. He also had a 14% swinging strike rate and just a 70% contact rate, so that tells us there will be swing-and-miss issues in the big leagues. I would expect a .230 average but with some intriguing power and speed hitting near the bottom of a solid but not great lineup. It's not much different than what we should expect from fellow rookie Brady House - 3B, WAS (5% rostered). The former 11th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft was hitting much better in the minors, going .304/.353/.519 in 65 games at Triple-A with 13 home runs. His average exit velocity was 90.2 mph with a 46% hard-hit rate. House was pulling the ball at a career-high rate, nearly 50% of the time, while lowering his chase rate by 6%. He still swings and misses a lot (15% swinging strike rate in the minors) and has a 47% groundball rate that will cap his upside, but the new approach and solid enough zone contact rate let's me think that House could hit .240 in Washington with decent power numbers the rest of the way. Luke Raley - 1B/OF, SEA: 5% rostered (RETURN FROM IL, POWER UPSIDE) Raley has been out since late April with an oblique strain, but he returned last week and has gone 7-for-21 in six games with a homer and six RBIs. He hit 22 home runs with 11 steals for the Mariners last season, so he could be a decent source of power and chip in steals in deeper formats. He's likely to see most of his playing time in right field, but he could also play first base and designated hitter, which gives him added job security; although, he's unlikely to play against left-handed pitching. That's similar to the role that Pavin Smith - 1B/OF, ARI (7% rostered) has carved out for himself in Arizona. Smith is hitting just .200 in 20 games in June, but that comes with four home runs and 11 RBI. He's slashing .266/.380/.463 on the season but only has eight home runs, so if that home run production can tick up, he could provide real value in deeper formats. Isaac Collins - OF, MIL: 4% rostered (HOT STREAK, EVERY DAY PLAYING TIME) Collins has been on a bit of a heater since June 1st, hitting .315/.441/.556 in 19 games with three home runs, 14 runs scored, 12 RBI, and one steal. He also has 13 walks to 16 strikeouts, so the plate discipline overall has been pretty solid. He's pulling the ball near 50% of the time, mostly on the ground and on a line, which is good for his batting average but might cap the overall power upside. His average exit velocity is also only 87 mph in June, so this is not a hitter you're adding for power, but he has a solid approach that should lead to plenty of doubles and decent counting stats, hitting fifth or sixth in Milwaukee. Nolan Gorman - 2B/3B, STL: 3% rostered (INCREASED PLAYING TIME, POWER UPSIDE) I'll admit that I'm skeptical Gorman will ever make enough contact for me to truly like him in fantasy baseball; however, he's hitting .254/.342/.522 in 22 games in June with five home runs, 12 RBI, and 10 runs scored. His Process+ score of 110 is well above average for the same time period, but I do hate his 32% strikeout rate over that same span. I'm not sure how long this will last for Donovan Solano - 1B/3B, SEA (2% rostered), but we need to acknowledge that he's 17-for-41 (.415) in his last 14 games with three home runs and 13 RBI. He plays 1B around four times a week, so that makes him harder to roster outside of the deepest formats, but he hit .278/.331/.443 in 44 games in the second half last year, and has a .279 career MLB batting average, so he can help you there. Andrew McCutchen - OF, PIT: 3% rostered (CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME, HOT STREAK) This may be more of a Yahoo pick-up because McCutchen is OF-eligible there and isn't in many other formats. However, the veteran has been producing of late, hitting .270/.331/.423 over his last 35 games with five home runs, 14 RBI, and 15 runs scored. We know the lineup around him isn't great, which will limit his overall fantasy upside, but McCutchen should remain solid for fantasy managers in deeper formats. Similarly, Andrew Benintendi - OF, CWS (2% rostered) is a veteran outfielder we've forgotten about a bit, granted, some of that is because he can't stay healthy. Still, Benintendi is hitting .248/.303/.477 in 30 games since coming off the IL with four home runs, 11 runs scored, and 18 RBI. He plays every day and hits third, which should help with some of the counting stats, and that could make him useful in deeper formats. Waiver Wire Pitchers Shelby Miller - RP, ARI: 37% rostered I'm pretty surprised Miller's roster rate remains this low. We know that both Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk are out for the season, so Shelby Miller is going to be the primary closer in Arizona for a while. He has a 2.18 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 33 innings and nine saves. Why are people chasing guys like Camilo Doval over Miller? Yes, with Corbin Burnes also out for the season, there's a chance that the Diamondbacks sell at the deadline. But that also means it's unlikely they bring in competition for Miller. The question is whether or not Miller himself gets dealt. It also seems like Calvin Faucher - RP, MIA (18% rostered) has taken the closer role in Miami again. I'm not sure how many saves you're going to get out of this, and Miami can't seem to settle on one guy, but if you're hurting for saves, Faucher could be a solid option. Landen Roupp - SP, SF: 33% rostered Roupp is one of my favorite starters on this list to roster. He impressed me in spring training and then took a little while during the regular season to get going, but has a 2.18 ERA over his last eight starts. The strikeouts haven't been what they were in the minors or in spring training, but it appears that Roupp has traded some swing-and-miss for better overall results, and I'm OK with that. Perhaps this is the pitcher version of Cam Smith, where he focuses less on striking guys out and more on just getting MLB hitters out consistently, and then once the confidence comes, he starts to tinker back towards trying for punchouts more often. Regardless, I'm buying in. Bryan Bello - SP, BOS: 28% rostered Over the last month, Bello has seen a real surge on the back of a new pitch mix, which I covered here. Bello has leaned into his cutter as his most-used pitch and started to dial back on his slider a bit. You can check out that article for more info, but I'm slowly buying back in on Bello; although, I'd love it even more if his changeup was as good as it used to be. Edward Cabrera - SP, MIA: 24% rostered Cabrera is another of my favorite starters to add on waivers. I was a fan of his pitch mix changes when he first debuted this season, and he has started to produce against good teams lately, too. Over his last two starts (against Philadelphia and San Francisco), Cabrera allowed three runs on five hits in 11.2 innings with 11 strikeouts and six walks. I am happy to add Cabrera in all leagues, but he's more of a streamer in 10 and 12-team formats. Orion Kerkering - RP, PHI: 23% rostered) Kerkering seems to be emerging as the primary reliever in Philadelphia. After Jordan Romano seemed to take the closer's role back over, Kerkering has been the team's most trusted reliever of late. He had gone 19 straight appearances without allowing a run before he struggled on Thursday. The strikeouts haven't been where they were last year, but the results have been good for most of the season. I expect the Phillies to mix and match some save opportunities going forward, so Matt Strahm - RP, PHI (15% rostered) is also worth rostering, but we also should expect Philadelphia to be buyers at the deadline, which could also mean a reliever gets added as well. Just something to keep in mind. Jacob Lopez - SP, ATH: 21% rostered I recorded a video this week on Jacob Lopez's outrageously good last four starts, so watch that to hear more about my thoughts on him and why I'm fine with rolling him out there to see how long this lasts. Robert Garcia - RP, TEX: 18% rostered Garcia is now the closer in Texas. I think. He has three saves in the last month, but his ratios have been pretty problematic. Although, his last five outings have been much better in that regard. The other issue is that Texas is not winning as many games as we thought they would at the start of the season. They could get hot at any moment, but Garcia has not proven to be a truly lockdown reliever, and he's a left-handed reliever, which gives him a platoon disadvantage against most of the hitters he's going to face. Chris Martin - RP, TEX (20% rostered) has also picked up two saves recently. I think Texas would rather have Martin in the 'fireman' role, but it's hard to tell at this point, so if you wanted to roster him for general solid ratios and the occasional save, that could work. Emmett Sheehan - SP, LAD: 12% rostered Sheehan made his season debut last week and looked good, throwing four scoreless innings against the Padres with six strikeouts. It was his first MLB start since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he showcased a solid three-pitch mix with a four-seamer, slider, and changeup. He was 95 mph on the four-seamer with two inches more iVB, which got him to 17", and he also threw them upstairs. The slider and changeup were solid, and even if he's not a huge upside arm, he has a solid arsenal with command that should continue to improve as the year progresses. The Dodgers then demoted Sheehan and also said his next start will be at Triple-A; however, he might be up in two weeks and could have a spot in the rotation for a while. However, Tyler Glasnow is also working his way back, so this could be a messy situation going forward. Joe Boyle - SP, TB (7% rostered) is in a similar situation. I will fully admit that I was out on Boyle as a starter. I thought Tampa Bay might 'fix' him by moving him into the bullpen, but they turned him into a solid starter by REDUCING the movement on his pitches. Boyle was unable to harness his pitch mix and throw them in the strike zone, so they gave him a splinker and refused the use of his slider so that he had an easier time throwing strikes. It has worked wonders. In his nine starts since he got a spot start in Tampa Bay earlier in the season, Boyle has a 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 54/16 K/BB in 46 innings. With Taj Bradley continuing to struggle in Tampa Bay, you'd have to think that the team makes the swap sooner rather than later. Frankie Montas - SP, NYM: 5% rostered I recovered a video on Montas after his season debut this week, so I encourage you to watch that for my detailed thoughts. I'll treat him as a streamer going forward. Grant Taylor - SP/RP, CWS: 5% rostered Taylor has legit electric stuff, and I think he could be closing for the White Sox in short order, but it's anybody's guess what Will Venable wants to do. Taylor locked down a traditional save last weekend, but then he pitched the seventh inning during the week, and then he had a two-inning save on Saturday. His usage is all over the place, but he has been lights out no matter what role he has, which is why I think he's worth an add everywhere. Matt Brash - RP, SEA: 4% rostered Matt Brash is back and continues to show dominant stuff out of the bullpen. He has not allowed a run in 16.1 innings this year while striking out 17 batters. The Mariners love to use Andres Munoz as their 'stopper' or highest leverage reliever, so Brash could find his way into a few saves when Munoz has to put out a fire in the eighth inning. Richard Fitts - SP, BOS: 4% rostered Fitts is back in Boston's rotation and while I don't think he's a future stud, I'm still in the bag for him a bit. He was rushed back from his earlier rehab assignment after a pectoral injury because the Red Sox were without Walker Buehler and Tanner Houck at the time and weren't comfortable with Dobbins pitching three times through a batting order. That clearly backfired, and Fitts returned to Triple-A to essentially finish his rehab assignment, where he has looked sharp. His fastball maintained its velocity in his first start back, and I think Fitts has some decent upside in deeper formats. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order) Week of 6/30 Strong Preference Fairly Confident Some Hesitation If I'm Desperate
NBC Sports
25-06-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Chase Burns' debut, Kumar Rocker cuts it up
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. Matthew Pouliot, Since returning to the Rangers' rotation in June, Rocker has a 4.61 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 15/6 K/BB in 13.2 innings. However, much of that is tainted by a poor first start against the Rays. He allowed just two runs on nine hits in 10.1 innings against the White Sox and Pirates in his last two starts, and while that is beating up on some poor opponents, Rocker also came back to the big leagues armed with a new pitch and a revised approach. Pitcher List As you can see from this Pitcher List chart above, Rocker's return to the MLB mound has coincided with a massive uptick in his cutter usage. In fact, over his last three starts, Rocker is throwing his cutter more than any other pitch, while also removing his slider completely and leaning into his curve more often. Kumar Rocker Pitch Mix You could conclude that Rocker turned his slider into a cutter, but these are drastically different pitches and he uses them in different ways. His slider is 84.1 mph with almost two inches of horizontal movement and nearly four inches of drop, which amounts to almost 41 inches of drop when you factor in gravity. Meanwhile, the cutter is nearly 91 mph with just over two inches of horizontal movement and just 28 inches of drop, when accounting for gravity. Although there is some overlap in Rocker's approach with the pitches, it's mainly in locations. He kept the slider low in the zone to both righties and lefties, which is how Rocker uses the cutter; even though he will throw some cutters up in the zone to righties more often than to lefties. He keeps both pitches glove-side, but perhaps has better feel for the cutter because he throws cutters in the middle of the zone to righties (not outside or inside) just 24% of the time, but that mark was 33% on the slider. That feel argument has more legs when you look at his zone and strike rates as well. Against righties, Rocker has a 61% zone rate and 81% strike rate on the cutter. He pounds the outside part of the strike zone against righties, up or down, and has gotten a 17% called strike rate. His slider had just a 44% zone rate to righties and a 67% strike rate with a sub-13% called strike rate. Yet, his slider did miss more bats against righties and was a strong two-strike pitch with a 28% PutAway rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeouts, so I don't think Rocker should abandon the slider altogether. However, his curveball does have an above-average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) to righties with a 25% PutAway Rate, so perhaps that can emerge as a solid two-strike offering for him if he does table the slider. The most pressing issue for Rocker is finding an approach for lefties. In his career, Rocker has allowed a .333/.407/.490 slash line to lefties with a 19% strikeout rate. That's not going to fly. The slider was part of that problem. Even though he had a solid 17% SwStr% on the slider against lefties, it was not successful as a two-strike pitch, posting just an 11% PutAway Rate and a 19% chase rate in two-strike counts, which was 39th percentile. Lefties also crushed the slider to the tune of a 50% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR). Meanwhile, Rocker's cutter has a 30% SwStr% to lefties this season. Yes, 30%! While posting a 31% PutAway Rate, 31% two-strike chase rate, and 44% ICR. It's a better pitch to lefties in every way, shape, or form. He ties them up down-and-in with the offering and is able to both use it to get ahead in the count (70% first pitch strike rate) or put a hitter away. Rocker can now lead with the cutter against lefties, while mixing in the four-seam fastball, sinker, curve, and a few changeups. If that can make him even average against lefties, that's a huge win. Then he'll attack righties with his cutter, sinker, and curve and, hopefully, mix back in the slider there as well. For the first time in a long time, I can see a path forward for Rocker here, and I'd be adding him in deeper formats to see if he can build on this. Michael Soroka caught my attention last time out with a 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers, and while that performance appeared flukey on the surface, I started to dig into what the right-hander has been doing of late. Since May 17th (seven starts), Soroka has a 4.58 ERA but ranks 24th in baseball among starting pitchers with a 3.29 SIERA. He also ranks 29th over that span with a 20.7% K-BB%, so is it possible that we could be on the verge of a hot stretch for Soroka? In order to determine that, we need to dig into what he's doing differently. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard As you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard above, Soroka has begun to dial back on his four-seam usage and started to lean into his sinker more than at the start of the season. He has also totally abandoned his modestly used slider and just turned that usage (and more) to his solid curveball. So, should this work? For starters, as you could likely guess, the sinker has been a more predominantly used pitch to righties. Over his last seven starts, Soroka has gone 49% four-seam and 4% sinker to lefties but 34% four-seam and 24% sinker to righties. In his first three starts of the year, he was 43% four-seam and 14% sinker to righties, so this is a noticeable change. And a good one. Soroka uses the sinker inside to righties 64% of the time, leading to just a 29% ICR and 65% groundball rate. He doesn't get many swings and misses on it, but it ties up righties and leads to tons of weak contact. It also keeps hitters from sitting on the four-seam as much. Over his first few starts, before the uptick in sinker usage, Soroka was throwing his four-seamer inside 29% of the time and up in the zone 58% of the time. Over his last seven starts, that inside rate has fallen to 21% and is even just 16% of his last five starts. Since he has the sinker to keep righties honest inside, he can attack with his four-seam all over the strike zone. That has led to an uptick in PutAway rate (albeit a small one) but also a jump from a 14.3% SwStr% to a 17.4% mark against righties. Most importantly, the ICR on his four-seam fastball against righties has fallen from 50% early in the season to just 20% over his last seven starts. That's a HUGE improvement thanks to the added emphasis on the sinker. Additionally, Soroka has tried to use the four-seam less in two-strike counts to righties. Early in the season, he was throwing the four-seamer 37% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, but that has fallen to 26% of the time over the last seven starts, and he didn't throw a single two-strike four-seam fastball to a right-handed hitter in that 10-strikeout game against the Dodgers. Instead, Soroka is using his curve nearly 29% of the time in two-strike counts to righties over these last seven starts, which is an uptick from his early-season marks. On the season, that pitch has a 15% SwStr% and 34% PutAway Rate overall and a nearly 20% SwStr% and 39% PutAway rate against righties. Leaning into it more, even if it's just marginally, makes tons of sense. Lastly, you can see from Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard that Soroka has also slightly raised his arm angle overall, including raising it almost two degrees on his curveball and nearly four degrees on his four-seam fastball. While that hasn't really helped his four-seamer, it has given him a more drastic vertical approach angle on the curveball (in addition to 1.2 mph more velocity), which I think is helping the curve perform even better. At the end of the day, I think the curve is a crucial pitch for Soroka, and one that helps him against all hitters. Leaning into it more raises his floor. The reliance on the sinker clearly helps him against righties, and I think he'll be good for fantasy teams against right-handed-heavy lineups. I'm just not sure he has enough other than the curve when he faces a team loaded with lefties. We got another exciting MLB debut on Tuesday when Chase Burns took on the New York Yankees in Cincinnati. For three innings, we saw a debut so dominant that it brought images of Stephen Strasburg to mind. Burns struck out the side in the first, struck out the side in the second (around a two-out single), and retired the side in order in the third with yet another strikeout. However, things soured a bit in the fourth. Ben Rice took a middle-middle slider and hit it out of the park, and then Aaron Judge followed with a single. Burns retired the next two batters before Jazz Chisholm Jr. singled and Anthony Volpe tripled in two runs. To his credit, Burns was able to recover in the fifth inning, but that one fourth inning was a good lesson that MLB hitters will punish even the smallest of mistakes. So how does Burns' arsenal stack up at this level? For starters, the four-seam is not as electric as you'd hope. He averaged 98.1 mph on the pitch with a tremendous 17.9 inches of iVB, but also had a mediocre 6.4 feet of extension and a mediocre attack angle. If you look at the Pitcher List graphic below, it's a pitch that Burns tries to keep up in the zone, which we like to see, but it isn't as flat as the typical fastball that succeeds up in the zone. He did get six whiffs on his four-seamer, but the 10 foul balls (and the chart below) also tell me that the pitch is more hittable than we'd think at that velocity and his command of the pitch needs to improve a bit. Too many four-seamers, especially to righties, were over the middle of the plate. That may work in the minors, but that's not going to lead to many swings and misses at the big league level. This has a bit of a Jackson Jobe feel where the four-seamer may have looked dominant in the minors but will be a bit less impactful in the big leagues where almost everybody can hit high-end velocity. The big pitch for Burns was a plus slider that was 89.4 mph with a tight 5.3 inches of horizontal movement and 33.6 inches of drop, when accounting for gravity, which is slightly more than most sliders at that velocity. He used the pitch to both righties and lefties, but his command of the pitch was far better to righties. He was able to keep the pitch middle-away, and while I do like that he'll throw the slider backdoor to lefties, I didn't love that some of them leaked out over the plate, like the one Ben Rice hit out. The slider had six whiffs and a 37.5% CSW and 60% chase rate, so there's a lot to be excited about there. Burns also mixed in eight changeups, which he throws exclusively to lefties. The pitch was better than I expected, with just a 25% zone rate but a 75% strike rate thanks to a few swings and misses outside of the zone. However, there were a few that got away from him up in the zone (do you sense a pattern here?), so we'll need to see how the command of that improves. At the end of the day, Burns, like most talented rookies, is going to put together some dominant stretches and then also have some rough patches. He has a good fastball and an elite slider, but that's just has two pitches for right-handed batters, unless he begins to use that curve far more. The four-seam is fine against lefties too, but the slider is less impactful due to some command issues, and the changeup is a solid third offering to lefties but one that also has some inconsistent command. Perhaps that was the adrenaline of the first start, but it's also worth noting that many of the Yankees' better hitters had good swings the second time they saw Burns. He's going to need to keep developing his sequencing and refining the command of his arsenal to avoid big innings, but he needs to be added in all formats and should be started next week against a Red Sox lineup that figures to still not have either Alex Bregman or Masataka Yoshida. At a time when the Braves desperately need somebody in their rotation to step up and fill the void left by Chris Sale's injury, they may already have a solid option in Grant Holmes. The right-hander has stepped up his game over his last eight starts, posting a 2.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 20.1% K-BB% in that span. His strikeout upside has also ticked up of late, and he ranks 8th in baseball among starting pitchers in K-BB% since May 20th (six starts) with a 24.3% mark. So what has changed, and how believable is this? As you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard above, the easy changes we can spot are a reduction in four-seamer usage, an increase in slider usage, and the total elimination of his change and sinker, which were both little used anyway. Right from the start, we can support the reduction in his four-seam fastball use. It grades out as a below-average pitch according to PLV, posting a below-average strike rate and just a 6.6% SwStr%. It also gives up a 55% ICR, so it gets hit hard and doesn't miss bats. That's not a pitch we want a pitcher we like to be using. Holmes had also lessened up on his cutter usage in late May and early June, but he threw 25% cutters in his last start, using it to both righties and lefties, throwing it 70% of the time early in the count to righties. On the season, the cutter is a much better strike pitch for Holmes, but also allows just a 32% ICR overall and 29% mark to righties, so it would be a positive development for him if he started using this cutter more as his early fastball. We can also see that Holmes has dialed up his slider usage, going from 28% usage in March/April to 44% so far in June. While it's primarily a two-strike pitch for him, he has thrown it early in the count 49% of the time on the season and has an above-average first pitch strike rate on it. It's a huge strikeout pitch for him against righties, with a 37.4% two-strike chase rate and 31% PutAway rate to righties to go along with a 27% SwStr% on the season. What's been interesting is seeing him increase the usage to lefties of late. On the season, the slider has a solid 16% SwStr% to lefties but also just a 29% ICR, so it doesn't get hit hard at all. He does a good job buying it low but doesn't exclusively get it inside to lefties, sometimes throwing it on the outside corner, which has led to soft contact. In his first eight starts of the season, he used the slider 23% of the time against lefties, throwing it low in the zone 80% of the time and outside just 23% of the time. It posted a 16% SwStr%, and 36% ICR against lefties, which are solid numbers. However, over his last eight starts, he has used the slider nearly 27% of the time to lefties but thrown outside over 40% of the time. That has decreased its effectiveness in two-strike counts, but led to a 21.4% ICR while keeping the same SwStr%. Considering Holmes has an 84th percentile PutAway Rate against lefties with his curveball, we don't need him to get swinging strikes with his slider against lefties too. The slider can now induce weaker contact, and the cutter could potentially do the same if he leans back into it more. That means that this version of Grant Holmes can use his cutter early in the count to righties, with some four-seam mixed in, and then turn to the slider for swinging strikes, while using the cutter and slider for strikes and weak contact against lefties, and then turn to the curve for swinging strikes. It's still not an ideal setup because you have a pitcher who is hiding his four-seam fastball, but I think this is a profile that can work if Holmes brings that cutter back in more regularly. If he doesn't, I would be wary of him going forward.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Jacob Misiorowski debuts, Brayan Bello makes a change
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Advertisement Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. MLB: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Rafael Devers' outlook on Giants, Shohei Ohtani back on the mound Advertisement Fallout from the Devers trade and the return of Giancarlo Stanton shake up the rankings this week. Jacob Misiorowski - Milwaukee Brewers (MLB Debut) Brewers starting pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski made one of the most anticipated MLB debuts of the season last week when he tossed five hitless innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. Part of the intrigue for Misiorowski is his 6'7" frame and also the triple-digit fastball that he can still pump with high velocity deep into starts. His command had taken a step forward in the minors, and so there was a palpable feeling that we might be witnessing a true breakout. So, how did he look in that MLB debut? Misiorowski Pitch We'll start with the fastball because he sat 99 mph with it last week with 7.5 feet of extension, and that's just absurd. That kind of extension will make a 99 mph fastball look like a 102-103 mph pitch and comes with a 1.7 Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle, which means it's a flat fastball that fights gravity and seems to rise as it approaches home plate. A pitch with that velocity that also seems to rise is incredibly hard to hit and immediately becomes one of the best fastballs in all of baseball. Advertisement However, this is where the command comes into play. A pitch that electric is often hard to control, and Misiorowski had just a 44% zone rate on it during his debut, which is well below the 52.4% mark that's MLB league average for a starting pitcher. Some of that might be due to nerves, but having just a 9% called strike rate is not great for your four-seam fastball, which is supposed to be a foundational pitch that Misiorowski can also use to get ahead in the count with. Yet, it seems like Misiorowski has another pitch for that, which is his slider/cutter. It's classified as a slider right now, but it's 94.3 mph with just 1.7 inches of horizontal movement and feels an awful lot like a cutter. He had a 48% zone rate on that pitch despite a below-average 56% strike rate. He used it early in the count 70% of the time to righties, which also suggests that he views it as a strike pitch that he can get ahead with. He threw 23 of his 25 cutters to righties, and only threw his four-seam early in the count 33% of the time to righties, so we're seeing a clear approach here. Misiorowski will use the cutter to get ahead on righties and then have the four-seamer as a two-strike pitch, but will use the four-seamer early in the count to lefties and then go to his curveball. He threw seven of his 11 curveballs to lefties and used it in two-strike counts 85.7% of the time, so the plan is pretty clear. It's an 88 mph pitch with nearly 11 inches of drop and six inches of horizontal run and can be downright filthy at times. It's incredibly rare to find a curve that's nearly 90 mph that drops as much as Misiorowski's does, but that could also be why he struggles to command it. All four of his curves to righties were thrown for strikes because it's just a "get me over pitch" against right-handed hitters. However, just two of his seven curves to lefties were for strikes. He missed up and away a handful of times, which indicates he was over-throwing it, and had a below-average PutAway Rate on the pitch, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He also threw two nasty changeups to lefties at 91 mph, so maybe that will become a bigger offering for him, but right now we have a three-pitch mix and a pretty clear and narrow arsenal for all hitters. If righties know they're going to get a cutter early and a four-seam late in the count, will they adapt to that plan quickly? If lefties know the two pitches Misiorowski throws to them are two pitches he struggles to command, will they just wait him out? When you pair that with Misiorowski already being 29 innings away from matching his career high, there are some risks with him as a rest-of-season starter. Advertisement I think he needs to be rostered in all formats, and I can easily see a low ERA with plenty of strikeouts the rest of the way. However, I also think there's a chance his WHIP can hurt your ratios, and the Brewers may shut him down in the middle or end of August if they fall out of playoff contention, which I expect them to do. But for now, enjoy the ride. Eury Pérez - Miami Marlins (New Arm Slow, New Sinker, New Curve Grip) Eury Pérez made his long-awaited return to an MLB mound this month after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, but has struggled in his first two appearances, allowing five runs on eight hits in seven innings with five strikeouts and five walks. We've also seen some interesting changes to his pitch mix and mechanics that are worth exploring. For starters, Pérez dropped his arm angle almost five degrees, which you can see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below. His teammate, Edward Cabrera, also dropped his arm angle significantly this season, so you have to wonder if this is an organizational shift for the Marlins. The new arm angle has, obviously, changed the shape of some of Pérez's offerings. His four-seam arm angle has dropped almost seven inches, which has cost him over an inch of Induced Vertical Break (iVB) but added over two inches of arm-side run. Even with that change in shape, he has the same Height Adjusted Vertical Approach angle, so it's still a flat fastball that will succeed up in the zone. Pérez is just not yet locating it there consistently early on, which is to be expected after surgery. Perhaps the new movement profile on the four-seamer will lead to less hard contact when he misses his spot, but sitting 98.1 mph with the pitch is nice to see. Advertisement Pérez also added a sinker this season, which might make some sense when paired with this new four-seam shape. Pérez's sinker is 96.6 mph with over 17 inches of horizontal break, so even though the four-seamer now rides in on righties a bit, the sinker will still bore in on their hands far more. That could create some nice deception and soft contact, but he has been using the sinker more to lefties so far, which is a bit odd to me. Eury The change in arm angle and a reported change in grip have also given his curveball over eight inches more horizontal break and nearly six inches more drop. It comes in about one mph slower than it used to, but he seems to, so far, have an easier time commanding the pitch. That pitch has morphed into his primary secondary offering to lefties, but he has yet to induce a single swinging strike on it against them. Some of that is simply that the pitch is catching too much of the plate, which is something he'll need to iron out as he gets more starts. Righties are still seeing his slider as the primary secondary offering, and that pitch has gotten a bit flatter with the new arm angle. However, the slider has not induced a single swinging strike to righties so far. It's a pretty wild stat between that and the curve to lefties. However, we should note that Pérez has faced FAR more lefties so far in his first two appearances, so we'll take those numbers with a grain of salt. However, the slider has graded out REALLY poorly by PLV so far this season. Advertisement Lastly, we saw a minor change with Pérez's change-up this season, coming in nearly one mph harder and with more arm-side run. However, he's only thrown five, and not one of them has been for a strike. At the end of the day, I don't see this as a package I'm pursuing right now in shallower redraft leagues. If you have the bench space and you want to stash him to see how the next few starts go, I have no issue with that, but Pérez is going to need to figure out his curveball and/or slider this season before he starts racking up strikeouts. The Marlins also have no reason to push him beyond 80-ish pitches per game in his first season back from injury. I'll be heavily invested in Pérez for next season, but I'm only taking low-cost shares for 2025. 2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette Advertisement 60 undervalued players to help you win your fantasy league. Brayan Bello - Boston Red Sox (Cutter Usage) Bello is evolving before our eyes and is turning into a type of pitcher none of us ever expected him to be. When he debuted, Bello had an elite changeup but lacked a plus fastball or a great swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He has since developed a good slider, but the changeup has left him almost completely. Now, it seems that Bello is relying on three variations of a fastball (four-seam, sinker, and cutter), while mixing in his sweeper and changeup. Bello threw his cutter for the first time this season on May 13th. He then didn't throw a single cutter in his next outing, but from May 23rd on, Bello has thrown his cutter 13% of the time, including a career-high 33% usage on Sunday. Over that same span, he's using his sinker 39% of the time and sweeper 23% of the time, while dropping his changeup rate to 12% and kicking his four-seam usage up to an equal 12%. It's a pretty drastic shift for the 26-year-old, but is it one that can work? Brayan Bello changes In his start against the Yankees on Sunday, Bello used his cutter as his primary fastball to both righties and lefties, but it was such an anomaly in his usage pattern that we have to wonder if this was just a gameplan against the Yankees. However, Boston has also tweaked their entire pitching philosophy over the last week and has leaned harder into fastball usage than they have since Andrew Bailey became the pitching coach. The cutter is Bello's best fastball, so this may be a new avenue forward for him. Advertisement He can locate the pitch in the zone well, using it more as a strike pitch for lefties but bringing it in as a two-strike offering for right-handed hitters as well. The cutter is about 89 mph with just 1.5 inches of horizontal movement and very little drop, but it has been great as a two-strike pitch to righties, posting a 28.6% chase rate in those counts and a 28.6% PutAway Rate. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but because Bello throws his slider 36% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, he's able to create some deception by mixing in the cutter in those counts too. The cutter doesn't miss a ton of bats, but it's Bello's best fastball variation and gives him another pitch he can command while he struggles to harness his changeup. Bello's change has a league-average swinging strike rate to lefties, and his slider has a league-average swinging strike rate to righties, so having multiple fastball variations where he can get ahead certainly raises his floor. However, I still think Bello won't take a true leap forward until he figures out his changeup, which is, for some reason, now over two mph harder than it has been in his career and is posting a career-worst zone rate and strike rate. That's going to be the true key to unlocking Bello, but I do think this new cutter usage makes him a bit safer by raising his floor. Brandon Walter - Houston Astros (Pitch Mix Review) Moving from one Red Sox pitcher to a former Red Sox pitcher. Walter was a 26th-round pick by the Red Sox in 2019 and emerged onto the prospect radar in 2021 after a solid season split between A-ball and High-A. He then posted a 2.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 68/3 K/BB ratio in 50 innings at Double-A in 2022. However, he struggled in a promotion to Triple-A that year and struggled again in Triple-A in 2023 before getting promoted anyway and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. He suffered a rotator cuff injury that kept him out all of the 2024 season and was designated for assignment after the Red Sox acquired Lucas Sims at last year's deadline. Advertisement A member of the Astros organization since last August, Walter has made a few changes since we last saw him in big league games in 2023. For starters, his cutter velocity is up from 87 mph to 88.3 mph and features double the iVB while cutting down on some of the horizontal run. As you can see below, it's his primary fastball offering, and he uses it exclusively against right-handed hitters. He does a nice job getting the pitch inside, but keeps it more in the middle of the zone rather than attacking up or down with it. The pitch has high zone and strike rates, but it also doesn't miss many bats and has a 47% Ideal Contact Rate allowed, so that's not an ideal pairing. Brandon Walter mix He uses this cutter 72% of the time early in counts to right-handed hitters, so even if it doesn't get swings and misses, as long as he can get ahead with it, the pitch is doing its job. He then comes back with a sweeper that he throws 41% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and a changeup that he uses 34% of the time in two-strike counts. The sweeper is another pitch that he doesn't focus much on burying low in the zone, but it has a 72nd percentile PutAway rate to righties, likely because of how it plays off of his cutter. Advertisement The changeup is another high zone rate pitch that has an absurdly low 17% ICR allowed to righties while also posting a league-average swinging strike rate. He does a good job keeping it in the lower half of the strike zone and away from righties, which is who he throws it to exclusively. That's a pretty solid three-pitch mix against right-handed hitters that won't lead to tons of strikeouts but should lead to a fair amount of weak contact. Lefties see a heavy dose of Walters' sweeper, both early in the count and with two-strikes, and also get an equally heavy dose of sinkers that weirdly have an 83rd percentile PutAway Rate against lefties. He'll mix in the odd four-seamer to lefties and righties, which means that he has four pitches he can use to righties and three he can use to lefties, all while locating his pitch in the zone well. The easy comparison here will be Ryan Yarbrough, and I understand that, since both are low-velocity lefties with a funky arm angle and a five-pitch mix that relies primarily on a cutter and sweeper. However, Walter throws over three mph harder than Yarbrough, while Yarbrough has registered more swing-and-miss so far this season. To me, Walter is more of a 15-team league option, but I like him more than Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon because I think his pitch mix is deeper, and I can see a clear attack plan for both righties and lefties. He's still a streamer, but in deeper formats, I'd be OK using him against the bottom half of the league, and I think he can outlast his two teammates and remain in Houston's rotation.
NBC Sports
18-06-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Jacob Misiorowski debuts, Brayan Bello makes a change
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. Matthew Pouliot, Brewers starting pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski made one of the most anticipated MLB debuts of the season last week when he tossed five hitless innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. Part of the intrigue for Misiorowski is his 6'7" frame and also the triple-digit fastball that he can still pump with high velocity deep into starts. His command had taken a step forward in the minors, and so there was a palpable feeling that we might be witnessing a true breakout. So, how did he look in that MLB debut? Pitcher List We'll start with the fastball because he sat 99 mph with it last week with 7.5 feet of extension, and that's just absurd. That kind of extension will make a 99 mph fastball look like a 102-103 mph pitch and comes with a 1.7 Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle, which means it's a flat fastball that fights gravity and seems to rise as it approaches home plate. A pitch with that velocity that also seems to rise is incredibly hard to hit and immediately becomes one of the best fastballs in all of baseball. However, this is where the command comes into play. A pitch that electric is often hard to control, and Misiorowski had just a 44% zone rate on it during his debut, which is well below the 52.4% mark that's MLB league average for a starting pitcher. Some of that might be due to nerves, but having just a 9% called strike rate is not great for your four-seam fastball, which is supposed to be a foundational pitch that Misiorowski can also use to get ahead in the count with. Yet, it seems like Misiorowski has another pitch for that, which is his slider/cutter. It's classified as a slider right now, but it's 94.3 mph with just 1.7 inches of horizontal movement and feels an awful lot like a cutter. He had a 48% zone rate on that pitch despite a below-average 56% strike rate. He used it early in the count 70% of the time to righties, which also suggests that he views it as a strike pitch that he can get ahead with. He threw 23 of his 25 cutters to righties, and only threw his four-seam early in the count 33% of the time to righties, so we're seeing a clear approach here. Misiorowski will use the cutter to get ahead on righties and then have the four-seamer as a two-strike pitch, but will use the four-seamer early in the count to lefties and then go to his curveball. He threw seven of his 11 curveballs to lefties and used it in two-strike counts 85.7% of the time, so the plan is pretty clear. It's an 88 mph pitch with nearly 11 inches of drop and six inches of horizontal run and can be downright filthy at times. It's incredibly rare to find a curve that's nearly 90 mph that drops as much as Misiorowski's does, but that could also be why he struggles to command it. All four of his curves to righties were thrown for strikes because it's just a 'get me over pitch' against right-handed hitters. However, just two of his seven curves to lefties were for strikes. He missed up and away a handful of times, which indicates he was over-throwing it, and had a below-average PutAway Rate on the pitch, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He also threw two nasty changeups to lefties at 91 mph, so maybe that will become a bigger offering for him, but right now we have a three-pitch mix and a pretty clear and narrow arsenal for all hitters. If righties know they're going to get a cutter early and a four-seam late in the count, will they adapt to that plan quickly? If lefties know the two pitches Misiorowski throws to them are two pitches he struggles to command, will they just wait him out? When you pair that with Misiorowski already being 29 innings away from matching his career high, there are some risks with him as a rest-of-season starter. I think he needs to be rostered in all formats, and I can easily see a low ERA with plenty of strikeouts the rest of the way. However, I also think there's a chance his WHIP can hurt your ratios, and the Brewers may shut him down in the middle or end of August if they fall out of playoff contention, which I expect them to do. But for now, enjoy the ride. Eury Pérez made his long-awaited return to an MLB mound this month after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, but has struggled in his first two appearances, allowing five runs on eight hits in seven innings with five strikeouts and five walks. We've also seen some interesting changes to his pitch mix and mechanics that are worth exploring. For starters, Pérez dropped his arm angle almost five degrees, which you can see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below. His teammate, Edward Cabrera, also dropped his arm angle significantly this season, so you have to wonder if this is an organizational shift for the Marlins. The new arm angle has, obviously, changed the shape of some of Pérez's offerings. His four-seam arm angle has dropped almost seven inches, which has cost him over an inch of Induced Vertical Break (iVB) but added over two inches of arm-side run. Even with that change in shape, he has the same Height Adjusted Vertical Approach angle, so it's still a flat fastball that will succeed up in the zone. Pérez is just not yet locating it there consistently early on, which is to be expected after surgery. Perhaps the new movement profile on the four-seamer will lead to less hard contact when he misses his spot, but sitting 98.1 mph with the pitch is nice to see. Pérez also added a sinker this season, which might make some sense when paired with this new four-seam shape. Pérez's sinker is 96.6 mph with over 17 inches of horizontal break, so even though the four-seamer now rides in on righties a bit, the sinker will still bore in on their hands far more. That could create some nice deception and soft contact, but he has been using the sinker more to lefties so far, which is a bit odd to me. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard The change in arm angle and a reported change in grip have also given his curveball over eight inches more horizontal break and nearly six inches more drop. It comes in about one mph slower than it used to, but he seems to, so far, have an easier time commanding the pitch. That pitch has morphed into his primary secondary offering to lefties, but he has yet to induce a single swinging strike on it against them. Some of that is simply that the pitch is catching too much of the plate, which is something he'll need to iron out as he gets more starts. Righties are still seeing his slider as the primary secondary offering, and that pitch has gotten a bit flatter with the new arm angle. However, the slider has not induced a single swinging strike to righties so far. It's a pretty wild stat between that and the curve to lefties. However, we should note that Pérez has faced FAR more lefties so far in his first two appearances, so we'll take those numbers with a grain of salt. However, the slider has graded out REALLY poorly by PLV so far this season. Lastly, we saw a minor change with Pérez's change-up this season, coming in nearly one mph harder and with more arm-side run. However, he's only thrown five, and not one of them has been for a strike. At the end of the day, I don't see this as a package I'm pursuing right now in shallower redraft leagues. If you have the bench space and you want to stash him to see how the next few starts go, I have no issue with that, but Pérez is going to need to figure out his curveball and/or slider this season before he starts racking up strikeouts. The Marlins also have no reason to push him beyond 80-ish pitches per game in his first season back from injury. I'll be heavily invested in Pérez for next season, but I'm only taking low-cost shares for 2025. Bello is evolving before our eyes and is turning into a type of pitcher none of us ever expected him to be. When he debuted, Bello had an elite changeup but lacked a plus fastball or a great swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He has since developed a good slider, but the changeup has left him almost completely. Now, it seems that Bello is relying on three variations of a fastball (four-seam, sinker, and cutter), while mixing in his sweeper and changeup. Bello threw his cutter for the first time this season on May 13th. He then didn't throw a single cutter in his next outing, but from May 23rd on, Bello has thrown his cutter 13% of the time, including a career-high 33% usage on Sunday. Over that same span, he's using his sinker 39% of the time and sweeper 23% of the time, while dropping his changeup rate to 12% and kicking his four-seam usage up to an equal 12%. It's a pretty drastic shift for the 26-year-old, but is it one that can work? In his start against the Yankees on Sunday, Bello used his cutter as his primary fastball to both righties and lefties, but it was such an anomaly in his usage pattern that we have to wonder if this was just a gameplan against the Yankees. However, Boston has also tweaked their entire pitching philosophy over the last week and has leaned harder into fastball usage than they have since Andrew Bailey became the pitching coach. The cutter is Bello's best fastball, so this may be a new avenue forward for him. He can locate the pitch in the zone well, using it more as a strike pitch for lefties but bringing it in as a two-strike offering for right-handed hitters as well. The cutter is about 89 mph with just 1.5 inches of horizontal movement and very little drop, but it has been great as a two-strike pitch to righties, posting a 28.6% chase rate in those counts and a 28.6% PutAway Rate. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but because Bello throws his slider 36% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, he's able to create some deception by mixing in the cutter in those counts too. The cutter doesn't miss a ton of bats, but it's Bello's best fastball variation and gives him another pitch he can command while he struggles to harness his changeup. Bello's change has a league-average swinging strike rate to lefties, and his slider has a league-average swinging strike rate to righties, so having multiple fastball variations where he can get ahead certainly raises his floor. However, I still think Bello won't take a true leap forward until he figures out his changeup, which is, for some reason, now over two mph harder than it has been in his career and is posting a career-worst zone rate and strike rate. That's going to be the true key to unlocking Bello, but I do think this new cutter usage makes him a bit safer by raising his floor. Moving from one Red Sox pitcher to a former Red Sox pitcher. Walter was a 26th-round pick by the Red Sox in 2019 and emerged onto the prospect radar in 2021 after a solid season split between A-ball and High-A. He then posted a 2.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 68/3 K/BB ratio in 50 innings at Double-A in 2022. However, he struggled in a promotion to Triple-A that year and struggled again in Triple-A in 2023 before getting promoted anyway and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. He suffered a rotator cuff injury that kept him out all of the 2024 season and was designated for assignment after the Red Sox acquired Lucas Sims at last year's deadline. A member of the Astros organization since last August, Walter has made a few changes since we last saw him in big league games in 2023. For starters, his cutter velocity is up from 87 mph to 88.3 mph and features double the iVB while cutting down on some of the horizontal run. As you can see below, it's his primary fastball offering, and he uses it exclusively against right-handed hitters. He does a nice job getting the pitch inside, but keeps it more in the middle of the zone rather than attacking up or down with it. The pitch has high zone and strike rates, but it also doesn't miss many bats and has a 47% Ideal Contact Rate allowed, so that's not an ideal pairing. He uses this cutter 72% of the time early in counts to right-handed hitters, so even if it doesn't get swings and misses, as long as he can get ahead with it, the pitch is doing its job. He then comes back with a sweeper that he throws 41% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and a changeup that he uses 34% of the time in two-strike counts. The sweeper is another pitch that he doesn't focus much on burying low in the zone, but it has a 72nd percentile PutAway rate to righties, likely because of how it plays off of his cutter. The changeup is another high zone rate pitch that has an absurdly low 17% ICR allowed to righties while also posting a league-average swinging strike rate. He does a good job keeping it in the lower half of the strike zone and away from righties, which is who he throws it to exclusively. That's a pretty solid three-pitch mix against right-handed hitters that won't lead to tons of strikeouts but should lead to a fair amount of weak contact. Lefties see a heavy dose of Walters' sweeper, both early in the count and with two-strikes, and also get an equally heavy dose of sinkers that weirdly have an 83rd percentile PutAway Rate against lefties. He'll mix in the odd four-seamer to lefties and righties, which means that he has four pitches he can use to righties and three he can use to lefties, all while locating his pitch in the zone well. The easy comparison here will be Ryan Yarbrough, and I understand that, since both are low-velocity lefties with a funky arm angle and a five-pitch mix that relies primarily on a cutter and sweeper. However, Walter throws over three mph harder than Yarbrough, while Yarbrough has registered more swing-and-miss so far this season. To me, Walter is more of a 15-team league option, but I like him more than Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon because I think his pitch mix is deeper, and I can see a clear attack plan for both righties and lefties. He's still a streamer, but in deeper formats, I'd be OK using him against the bottom half of the league, and I think he can outlast his two teammates and remain in Houston's rotation.
