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The Star
29-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
‘Hefty price tag' for subsidy scheme: is China's consumer boost sustainable?
For months, consumers across China buying everything from iPhones to cars and washing machines have enjoyed steep discounts – courtesy of the government. This vast subsidy programme has played a key role in boosting China's consumer spending this year, helping the economy remain relatively robust even amid an unprecedented trade war with the United States. But in June, some of those offers suddenly disappeared. In the eastern Jiangsu province, local authorities stopped issuing vouchers for online purchases of home appliances. Around the same time, several other provinces suspended their trade-in programmes for cars and appliances, citing depleted funds. The cancellations were the first sign that a reckoning may be approaching over China's consumption-boosting policies, which have succeeded in their main goals – but come with a hefty price tag. Last week, Beijing reaffirmed its support for the national trade-in scheme for durable goods, pledging that the rest of the 300 billion yuan (US$41.8 billion) funding would be allocated to local governments before the end of the year, with the next two rounds of funding set to be issued in July and October. On Thursday, Li Chao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Policy Research Office, said the government would formulate monthly and weekly plans to monitor the utilisation of those funds. 'This will ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy throughout the year,' she added. Yet, economists are increasingly questioning the sustainability of the policies. Though the sums involved are not a big burden for China's central government, some argue the cost of the programme may be putting more pressure on the finances of local authorities, which are already struggling under high debt levels. Beyond that, there is also concern about the policies' diminishing return on investment. Some worry the trade-in programme may simply be pulling forward future demand, meaning the current spending binge may be followed by an inevitable hangover once the policies come to an end. All of that has led to a growing debate over how long Beijing should continue funding the programme, especially if the US tariff war grinds on past this summer. There's the risk that sentiment simply weakens again when the rebates run out 'The trade-in scheme is a good short-term option, but it assumes that demand recovers and consumer confidence strengthens,' said Ben Simpfendorfer, a Hong Kong-based partner at the management consulting firm Oliver Wyman. 'These trade-in schemes work best when they're accompanied by structural reform that focuses on the medium term. Otherwise, there's the risk that sentiment simply weakens again when the rebates run out,' he added. The headlines figures suggest the trade-in programme has made a real impact this year. During the first five months of 2025, China's retail sales grew 5.0 per cent year on year, up from 3.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024, despite a turbulent global economy. But economists from Nomura forecast that retail sales growth would fall to just 3.1 per cent year on year in the second half of 2025, due to the inevitable 'payback' from the trade-in programme, a higher base from last year, and the new austerity rules for government officials that are expected to deal a blow to the catering sector. 'In addition to providing a one-off subsidy to consumption, Beijing might need to consider longer-term structural policies to support consumption,' they said in a report published this week. Reforms to the social security system – such as raising basic pension payments to low-income households and increasing subsidies for basic medical insurance – would be the most effective long-term policy moves to bolster consumption and reduce inequality, according to the report. Some economists also worry about the financial strain the consumer goods trade-in schemes could place on local governments, which are required to cover a percentage of the total subsidies: 5 per cent for China's western provinces, 10 per cent for the central provinces, and 15 per cent for the eastern provinces. Given the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, the policy should be expanded rather than halted Many local governments in China are already grappling with high debt levels and facing budgetary pressures due to a decline in income from land sales amid a downturn in the property sector. 'The overall pressure on local governments [from funding the trade-in schemes] is not too big, but for those poorest regions, they may genuinely lack the funds to cover this expense,' said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura. However, Xue Qinghe, CEO of the private Guangdong-based think tank Zhibenshe, said the trade-in programme was unlikely to impose significant pressure on local governments, as it could also boost local tax revenues. 'From the current perspective of how the trade-in programme is supporting consumption, this policy remains positive. Coupled with the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, the policy should be expanded rather than halted,' Xue said. On Tuesday, Apple's official website in China showed that some of its products now benefitted from national subsidies worth up to 2,000 yuan, with the deals applying to purchases at the company's stores in Shanghai as well as online purchases with a Beijing shipping address. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pillen orders Nebraska medical cannabis regulations to proceed as legislative, legal fights approach
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen signs off on the 2024 general election results on Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. (Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner) LINCOLN — It's not every day that Nebraska's three branches of government are all involved in a single topic. But one issue is front and center within the next week: medical cannabis. Days before legislative debate and a Lincoln court hearing, Gov. Jim Pillen on Friday announced 'intentions' for executive branch staff to offer available administrative support and resources for voter-approved medical cannabis regulators to begin their work. 'With support from the Policy Research Office, the Department of Administrative Services and other agencies, as necessary, the Medical Cannabis Commission is fully enabled to meet and carry out its responsibilities under the Patient Protection Act and the Regulation Act to meet its milestone dates of July 1 [for regulations] and October 1 [for licensing],' the release said. Any regulations proposed by the commission would need to go through the attorney general and the governor. State Sen. Ben Hansen of Blair, whose Legislative Bill 677 seeks to clarify and place additional guardrails, confirmed he will still push forward with the legislation and was 'a little surprised' by an executive about-face that now seeks to 'unilaterally' enact regulations. He said he sees LB 677 as the Legislature's responsibility to act and set parameters for regulators that 'can't be changed at a whim.' State Sen. Rick Holdcroft of Bellevue, chair of the Legislature's General Affairs Committee that is mulling medical cannabis legislation, said the executive action diminishes Hansen's previous argument that the laws could be the 'wild west' if the Legislature doesn't provide more guidance. 'I think there's actually been some thought into establishing the cannabis control commission. It's not a bad thing,' Holdcroft told the Nebraska Examiner on Friday. But Hansen, in response, said: 'I'm not worried about the 'wild west' anymore. I'm worried about nothing happening, and then we have recreational cannabis in two years.' He cites voters who have said that if the regulations are too restrictive, they will push a 2026 ballot measure for recreational marijuana, including some voters who prefer only medical use. Hansen adds that part of the reason LB 677 is still needed is Pillen's two at-large 'potential' appointees to the Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission. Together, they would join the three commissioners pulling double duty on the Nebraska Liquor Control Commission to create the new entity, which voters approved in November. Pillen has appointed Dr. Monica Oldenburg of Lincoln, an anesthesiologist, and Lorelle Mueting of Omaha, the prevention director at Heartland Family Service, which focuses on drug prevention. Both have consistently opposed efforts pushed by the Nebraskans who prevailed at the ballot box last fall after more than a decade of advocacy. Still, Pillen said that Oldenburg and Mueting are 'experienced, well-qualified individuals' who will ensure strong regulations 'to the letter of the law the people of Nebraska enacted.' 'I urge the Legislature to promptly confirm them so they can take up the urgent work of writing strong and effective 'rules of the road' for the medical cannabis industry,' Pillen said Friday. Both Oldenburg and Mueting opposed the closest legislative attempt to legalize medical cannabis in 2021, LB 474, led by former State Sen. Anna Wishart of Lincoln, who later helped the ballot measures. The 2021 bill fell two votes short, 31-18. Crista Eggers, executive director of Nebraskans for Medical Marijuana, said Friday that while supporters appreciated Pillen's actions, it is 'disingenuous' to characterize the new appointments as 'experienced' or 'well-qualified.' 'Appointing regulators who are fundamentally opposed to the very issue they are charged with overseeing suggests that other motives may be at play — motives that appear misaligned with the public intent, and not to mention the will of 71% of the state,' Eggers said in a statement. The legalization position passed with 71% of the vote, while the regulatory measure trailed just slightly, with about 67% support. Eggers and other long-time advocates support LB 677 as an initial step for regulations. At a March hearing on four medical cannabis bills, Mueting opposed LB 677 and two very similar bills and was 'neutral' on the narrowest bill: LB 483, from State Sen. Jared Storm of David City, seeking to limit medical cannabis to tinctures or pills alone. LB 483 sought to legalize up to 300 milligrams, 0.21% of the 5 ounces that voters approved. Both appointees will go before the General Affairs Committee next Thursday for confirmation hearings before the full Legislature weighs in. Laura Strimple, a spokesperson for Pillen, said the office interviewed three people and selected two. A staff member who oversees application materials for appointees was out of the office Friday, so the materials for Oldenburg and Mueting were not immediately made available. State Sen. John Cavanaugh of Omaha, vice chair of the General Affairs Committee, said he looks forward to the confirmation hearings but is 'skeptical' of Pillen's sincerity in helping voters. 'I will keep an open mind, but any attempt to restrict what the voters passed through bureaucratic red tape should be opposed vigorously,' Cavanaugh said in a text. 'In the meantime, the Legislature should pass LB 677 to make sure that medical cannabis is legal, safe and accessible in Nebraska.' Part of Pillen's Friday announcement mentions 'operational funding' already appropriated to the Medical Cannabis Commission, but when the next two-year state budget passed Thursday, new funding was limited. The Appropriations Committee offered an annual $30,000 each of the next two fiscal years for employees in the Liquor Control Commission, who take on additional duties under the new laws. In comparison, the Liquor Control Commission has a $2 million annual budget, including for enforcement of regulations for compliance. There is no additional funding for the remaining two months of the current fiscal year. The Department of Administrative Services can provide limited financial support to agencies crafting regulations, but the Governor's Office could not immediately provide specifics. Hansen's LB 677 is expected to be filibustered at each stage of debate, at a maximum of eight hours on Tuesday. If so, it would require 33 votes to advance and become law at the end. Hansen said that considering Oldenburg and Mueting are 'both openly staunch anti-medical cannabis people, you can only assume the direction on maybe where they're going to go with the implementation of this.' 'If we don't do anything, we have no idea what to expect,' Hansen said. Holdcroft said he would support Hansen and LB 677 by arguing in favor of a 'compromise' amendment to the bill, which gives an extra three months for regulations, prohibits smoking and outlines qualifying conditions. Pillen previously told the Examiner that cannabis wouldn't be approved in a form that could become recreational. 'My advocacy for it is that if you have a medical condition [and] you need it, you'll get it, but it's going to taste like crap,' Pillen said last month. 'It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow.' Also on Tuesday, Lancaster County District Judge Susan Strong will consider oral arguments on whether to dismiss a lawsuit that argues the voter-approved medical cannabis laws are unconstitutional because of federal laws outlawing marijuana. Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers, whose office is defending Pillen and other state officials, fundamentally opposes medical cannabis. He is asking that the case be dismissed, as are the regulatory commissioners and the ballot measure sponsors. The reason is specific: Hilgers' staff argues that the Attorney General's Office and not a private citizen should be the one to challenge the laws. LB 677 also presents a different threat to a pending appeal to the Nebraska Supreme Court, including from Hilgers' office, alleging signature fraud in the medical cannabis ballot measures. Strong rejected those arguments in November and upheld the ballot measures. The AG's Office and a former state senator who brought both cases before Strong appealed. Because LB 677 would provide additional legislative weight to the 2024 ballot measures, Hilgers and other advocates have acknowledged it could nullify or weaken the pending appeal. Hilgers has said he should get a 'fair fight' in front of the high court. He has also pledged to sue the new commission if it issues any medical cannabis licenses in the future, too. With Pillen's announcement, he joined the likes of Hilgers and U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., who have argued that lawmakers should wait and pass no cannabis-related bills this year. Said Strimple: 'Governor Pillen does not believe it is necessary for LB 677 to pass because with existing statutory authority and resources, the Medical Cannabis Commission will have everything it needs to effectively do business.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
