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Politico
6 hours ago
- Business
- Politico
Not-so-great expectations
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC heads back to D.C. → The future implications of public service cuts. → Canada keeps watch on a Chinese research vessel. Trade war HUNTSVILLE LEVEL SET — Negotiating with DONALD TRUMP is proving harder than it looks, no matter how many Canadian lawmakers have read 'The Art of the Deal.' — Tuesday morning: Premiers met with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, eager for signs of progress. — Tuesday afternoon: The leaders emerged from the update resigned that a deal may not arrive by the end of the month. Trump has said that on Aug. 1, he plans to raise tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent. Whether they will apply to goods that do not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remains to be seen. 'Of course we would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?' Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT said after the meeting. 'You almost need to ask Donald Trump and I'm not even sure he knows himself what he wants.' — The expectation manager: Carney, who ran for office on his economic bona fides, said he wants the best deal for Canada — and won't settle for an agreement 'at any cost.' 'They're complex negotiations, and we'll use all the time that's necessary,' he added. — Put another way: Toronto Star columnist MARTIN REGG COHN writes from Huntsville: 'When in doubt, manage expectations. Manage the premiers. Manage the media. Manage the country.' — Can't stop, won't stop: A team of Canadian negotiators is headed to Washington today, including Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Carney's chief of staff, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD. — Hurry up and wait: 'We want a good deal, not a fast deal. And we don't want to make a fast deal at the expense of a good deal. That's the realization we've come to,' New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT said after the briefing with the PM. — Regardless: If Team Canada appeared united, the night before probably helped. — All steak, no sizzle: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD hosted a barbecue at his Muskoka cottage on Monday night, where the group chowed down on steak, chicken and seasonal vegetables, and enjoyed plenty of libations. Premiers quipped that it was nice to mingle without cameras rolling and the media nearby. Ford organized a birthday cake for British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, who turned 49 on Monday. — Extra room: The prime minister slept at Ford's cottage, in a guest house. The two stayed up until 12:30 a.m., chatting in front of the fireplace and 'solving all the world's problems,' Ford said. 'The prime minister is the most humble person you'd ever want to meet,' he added. — Skipping town: The PM did not stick around for a Tuesday night gala hosted by Ford, who will pass the Council of the Federation chair role to Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM will visit his birthplace: Fort Smith, Northwest Territories. He's touring the community alongside Premier R.J. SIMPSON. The PM will meet with families to discuss affordability challenges and talk to Indigenous leaders about wildfires. In the evening, he'll travel to Inuvik to meet with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and Inuvialuit Regional Corporation CEO DUANE NINGAQSIQ SMITH. — It's the final day of the premiers' confab. CP's LIAM CASEY reports internal trade, public safety and health care on the agenda. — The sentencing hearing for 'Freedom Convoy' leaders TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER begins this morning. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar CUTS BOTH WAYS — As virtually every cross-border conversation these days seems to hinge on Canada-U.S. negotiations, CHRISTOPHER SANDS worries about the bureaucrats who keep the broader relationship ticking. Job cuts are a reality in Washington as Canadian public servants get anxious about the impact of planned spending reductions. Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies, gamed out all the uncertainty in a Substack post. He let Playbook in on why he wrote it: 'To try to alert people about the danger. … No one has been talking about the future implications.' — Anybody there? Canadians who need answers on shared priorities already compete with other countries for Americans' time, Sands writes. — Prepare for longer lines: 'Shrinking the federal workforce risks triggering a chain reaction of triage across all levels of government, keeping Canada waiting on hold.' — Meeting strategy: Americans are already outnumbered at bilateral meetings by Canadians who sometimes represent multiple departments from two levels of government. Sands wrote that the Americans in the room are 'tempted to 'play the clock' in meetings. Everyone speaks until time runs out and before anyone can assign homework or ask for a decision. That strategy results in more meetings — and more friction.' He tells Playbook: 'I don't think many Canadian officials appreciate the U.S. tactics of stalling by letting the Canadians talk.' — Warning sign: Canadians, too, can delay progress by using meetings to settle internal squabbles. Sands wrote: 'Some future U.S. officials may conclude 'the juice isn't worth the squeeze' — that working with Canada costs more effort than it's worth.' We asked Sands if Canadians understand the risk of time-crunched Americans prioritizing other files. 'Occasionally, you get someone to nervously acknowledge the point, but then there is always a less frightening explanation they will adopt,' he tells us. — The pessimistic scenario: 'The U.S.-Canada relationship could easily devolve into a series of awkward first encounters with new staff, no historical perspective, inadequate institutional support from within government and too little outside the government from universities and think tanks,' Sands wrote. Unless it doesn't: 'There's still time to act. To build capacity. To preserve knowledge. To invest in people and institutions who understand the relationship and can carry it forward.' For your radar KEEPING AN EYE OUT — As we noted for Pros yesterday, and CBC's Murray Brewster reported, a Canadian military aircraft has been monitoring a Chinese research vessel operating in Arctic waters outside Canadian territorial waters. The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed to POLITICO on Monday that a CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft recently dispatched to Anchorage, Alaska, has kept an eye on the polar icebreaker known as Xue Long 2. — Why send a plane? 'Competitors are exploring Arctic waters and the seafloor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence using dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms,' the DND statement read. — Duration of operations: The Canadian military 'will continue to actively monitor the Xue Long 2 so long as it continues to operate near Canadian territorial waters.' — Eyes on the trackers: STEFFAN WATKINS, an Ottawa-based research consultant who tracks the movements of military aircraft and vessels, published the Chinese ship's whereabouts in a weekly report — and noted the CP-140's flights out of Anchorage. — Two years running: When Xue Long 2 sailed a similar path last year through the Bering Strait and into Arctic waters, the Royal Canadian Navy sent a frigate to shadow the Chinese vessel. A CP-140 conducted similar patrols at the time, Brewster and others reported. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told The Globe and Mail the government is in active discussions with automakers about EV sales mandates. — In the Financial Post, GABRIEL FRIEDMAN reports: Tariffs are costing automakers billions. — In The New Yorker, ANTONIA HITCHENS profiles Trump's tariff dealmaker-in-chief. — SARA CONNORS of APTN speaks with Indigenous groups and conservationists about the green light for oil and gas drilling within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. — PAUL WELLS challenges PIERRE POILIEVRE's musings on X. — From POLITICO's PAUL DALLISON: The political wisdom of OZZY OSBOURNE. PROZONE The latest Pro Canada PM subscriber newsletter via SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Carney's team heads back to DC. From PHELIM KINE, ELI STOKOLS and DANIEL DESROCHERS: Trump's threat of Russia-related secondary tariffs sparks skepticism. Our latest headlines for POLITICO Pro readers: — OpenAI CEO warns of 'impending fraud crisis.' — Trump has set off a lobbying boom in Washington. — Trump announces trade deal with Japan. — France wants EU to punch back harder at Trump in tariff fight. — Bessent: Next round of trade talks with China happening next week. LOBBY WATCH — NATIONAL's MARTIN DARAICHE logged a July 11 meeting with PMO chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD on behalf of Marinvest Energy Canada, the subsidiary of a Norwegian company that wants to build an LNG export facility in Baie-Comeau, Quebec. — McMillan Vantage's JEFF RUTLEDGE posted a July 17 meeting with PMO senior policy adviser SHAWN GROVER on behalf of Glencore Canada. The company owns Elk Valley Resources, a steel-making coal mine operator in British Columbia. — Navigator's MATT TRIEMSTRA is now repping the Treaty Land Entitlement Committee of Manitoba, a group of First Nations negotiating a settlement with Ottawa. — La-Z-Boy of Ottawa, Kingston and Gatineau wants to secure tariff relief for furniture imports — and is now repped on the Hill by consultant ALAIN PILON. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Le Journal de Montréal columnist RICHARD MARTINEAU and former Progressive Conservative MP DAVID DAUBNEY. Movers and shakers: Former NDP MP BRIAN MASSE is now an employment services specialist at the Multicultural Council of Windsor-Essex — the agency where he was youth coordinator before winning his first election in 2002. LAURA LUMSDEN, former director of Canada-U.S. coordination at Global Affairs Canada, is now counselor of political affairs at Canada's UN mission. Media mentions: Global News Ottawa bureau chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON announced some personal news: 'I'm expecting my first baby in a few weeks and will be taking some time off for parental leave to focus on this very special assignment.' DAVID AKIN will sub in as acting bureau chief. Noted: The PM told the premiers that Ottawa's 'Federal Major Projects Office' and the Indigenous Advisory Council will open by Labor Day. Republicans want to rename Kennedy Center's opera house after MELANIA TRUMP. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: Former Prime Minister MACKENZIE KING died July 22, 1950. Props to GANGA WIGNARAJAH, J.D.M. STEWART, BOB GORDON, DARRYL DAMUDE, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DARREN MCEWAN, JENN KEAY, GREG FERGUS, GREG MACEACHERN, ELIZABETH BURN, DAN MCCARTHY, JEFFREY VALOIS, SHAUGHN MCCARTHUR, DARREN MAJOR, RAY DEL BIANCO, JOHN PEPPER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and KATIE FEENAN. Wednesday's question: In 'Value(s)', MARK CARNEY credits which global tech giant with advising him how to make decisions? Answers to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
a day ago
- Business
- Politico
Huntsville hunker-down
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → The PM and the premiers get to work in cottage country. → After an Ottawa field trip, four U.S. senators hint at progress on stubborn trade irritants. → Why Canada scrapped a decades-old ballistic missile defense policy. DRIVING THE DAY LAST-RESORT TOWN — Canada's premiers fully back Prime Minister MARK CARNEY's push to hammer out an economic and security agreement with President DONALD TRUMP by Aug. 1 — even if they're unclear on the details. When the premiers sit down with the PM this morning — at a resort in the heart of cottage country north of Toronto — they'll enter the room with little idea of what shape the deal might take. In between meetings on Monday, there was speculation about whether the prime minister would actually bring anything substantial to today's gathering. Would he drop news or catch premiers up on other shared priorities, like nation-building projects? The 'emergency meeting' came at the prodding of Ontario Premier DOUG FORD, after Trump said Canada would face 35 percent tariffs starting next month. — Define deal: Ford, who is also the chair of the premiers' group known as the Council of the Federation, would only say Canada is working toward 'a fair trade deal.' Whether that's an MOU — no one could say. What level of tariffs are likely to remain — no one could say. What industries could be spared — no one could say. 'That might be a good question for Wednesday after we've had some time with the prime minister on some of the changes that have been happening,' Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE told reporters Monday. 'And there's a lot of changes that happened pretty rapidly.' Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH says she's also looking for details. — Today in Huntsville: Today's closed-door talks set the stage for a pivotal meeting as Carney faces pressure to clarify the scope of negotiations, protect key industries, and offer premiers a clearer picture of what's coming before the Aug. 1 deadline. They'll also discuss a possible First Ministers Meeting alongside Assembly of First Nations Chief CINDY WOODHOUSE NEPINAK. — Filling in the blanks: As the Aug. 1 deadline looms, the premiers want clarity from the PM on the state of negotiations. They already have a wish list. — How low can you go: Premiers Moe and Smith acknowledge some level of tariffs will remain on Canadian goods — as the PM flagged last week — but they want them lowered. 'We won't get to zero on every topic,' Moe told reporters as he arrived in Muskoka. 'The goal is to get as close as possible to zero.' — Don't touch: Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT wants the PM to keep his hands off dairy quotas and maintain Canada's cultural exemptions under USMCA. And whatever new deal is struck has to remain in effect for three to five years, he said.'We need to have an economy where companies know what's happening in six months, 12 months from now,' Legault said. — Amuse-bouche: Arriving by motorcade on a humidity-free, sunny day, the premiers appeared relaxed as they assembled for their 'family photo' in front of a backdrop of OPP officers. British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, who was in the motorcade, missed the family photo because one of his kids needed a bathroom break. Carney arrived in Huntsville Monday evening, just in time to attend a barbecue dinner with the premiers at Ford's cottage on Fawn Lake, about a 30-minute drive north. Earlier in the day, locals got a kick out of seeing the premiers together, commenting that it was a refreshing change to see them get along under Carney. Others walked to the resort from their nearby condos to take photos of the hubbub. — Buzz about town: The community hasn't seen this much security since then-U.S. President BARACK OBAMA visited during the G8 Summit in 2010. Trade war 10 DAYS LEFT — Four U.S. senators strolled into West Block yesterday 'Abbey Road'-style, where Prime Minister MARK CARNEY met them for about 45 minutes. The peacemakers from Washington landed in town a week and change before a high-stakes Aug. 1 deadline to cut a new cross-border trade and security deal. The senators asked for the meetup, Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) later confirmed to POLITICO's DANIEL DESROCHERS in Washington. Everybody in the room knew the stakes of prolonged uncertainty as tariffs work their way into the economy — and eventually consumers' wallets. — Senate tally: This was the second congressional delegation to visit Carney in the past three months. He's now welcomed nearly 10 percent of the U.S. Senate this year — five senators in May, four more on Monday. — In the room: Sens. Wyden, LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) and CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.). On the Canadian side: Carney chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD, deputy chief of staff BRAEDEN CALEY, policy director TIM KRUPA and top Washington envoy KIRSTEN HILLMAN. — On the agenda: USMCA, softwood lumber, digital services taxes and metals tariffs — and, of course, that looming trade deadline. — Also on the docket: The Americans met Foreign Minister ANITA ANAND, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. — Unofficial titles: 'We are bridge builders, not people who throw wrenches,' Wyden told reporters in a West Block scrum. → On USMCA: 'This is something that we've had a considerable amount of success with since it was written during the Trump administration, and we ought to strengthen it,' Wyden said. 'We ought to build it, not get rid of it.' → On DST: 'I asked that Canada move as quickly as possible to get a law passed in Parliament making sure that it's gone permanently,' Wyden said. 'The prime minister was receptive to that. He said he would get on it in the fall.' → On softwood: 'We now have a clear idea of how to proceed, and that's to build around some sort of quota arrangement, and the prime minister said he was open to that,' Wyden said. (Last week, Carney entertained the idea of export quotas that limit Canadian lumber entering the U.S. market.) → On tourism: 'We know that the instability in our relationship right now has meant that some Canadians have decided to stay away from their favorite American tourist spots, and we hope you will come back,' Hassan said. 'And it's not just that we miss your business, which, of course, every good businessperson does, but we miss your friendship.' → On the '51st' state: 'It has been made very, very clear that most view that as nothing more than a positioning statement, if you will, something to maybe agitate,' Murkowski said of DONALD TRUMP's assertions that Canadians would be better off as Americans. — Deadlines real and imagined: On Monday, Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT downplayed the Trump administration's hopes for newly inked trade deals by Aug. 1. 'We are more concerned with high quality deals than getting these deals done by August 1st,' Bessent told CNBC. 'Our trading partners were told that the rates could boomerang back toward the April 2nd levels. We can continue talking then. But again, we're proceeding apace with the negotiations, but we're not going to rush for the sake of doing deals.' For your radar SKY'S THE LIMIT — As Playbook noted last week, Defense Minister DAVID MCGUINTY quietly reversed what he is calling an 'outdated' policy on ballistic missile defense that dates to the PAUL MARTIN era. Last week, McGuinty announced via press release that Ottawa had 'removed all restrictions on air and missile defence of Canada.' — Care to elaborate? Playbook asked the minister's office to explain the rationale for the change, which had gained momentum in recent years. (In May, Prime Minister MARK CARNEY also nodded to potentially joining Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile shield project, though the government hasn't yet committed definitively.) Here's what McGuinty's office said in a statement about participating fully in ballistic missile defense: 'The threat environment has drastically changed and Canada needs to be prepared. As the prime minister mentioned, Canada has already taken clear steps to increase our capabilities by investing in the Over the Horizon radar system. By removing outdated restrictions on our air and missile defence policies, Canada is taking another necessary step to strengthen the safety and security of Canadians, and the sovereignty of Canada.' — In case you missed it: Gen. MICHAEL GUETLEIN, No. 2 officer with the United States Space Force, has been confirmed to lead the 'Golden Dome' project. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY meets Canada's premiers in Huntsville, Ontario. — Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN headlines a party fundraiser at Parker Rooftop in Vancouver. — Members of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group — including Sen. MARTY DEACON — are attending the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Annual Summit. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . MORNING MUST-CLICKS — The Globe reports: Canada, 24 other nations urge Israel to end war in Gaza, condemn 'drip feeding of aid.' — The B.C. premier's office shared a recording with The Canadian Press featuring U.S. Ambassador PETE HOEKSTRA at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Foundation summit. The resulting headline: 'Trump thinks Canadians are 'nasty' to deal with for avoiding U.S. travel, banning booze, ambassador says.' — From AARON WHERRY of CBC News: Are first ministers' meetings cool again? — Conservative MP SCOTT AITCHISON's conversation with DAVID HERLE is a thoughtful listen on Canada's housing crisis. — From ARNO KOPECKY in the National Observer: 'Carney strides into Northern Gateway minefield.' — REBECCA DZOMBAK of the NYT reports that climate change is making fire weather worse for the world's forests. — From our colleagues in D.C.: Frustration and fear ripple through NPR and PBS affiliates after Congress approves clawbacks. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers: Trump tests Canada's steel industry. The latest headlines for our paid subscribers: — US senators visit Canada to build bridges as trade deadline looms. — For sale or lease: NASA satellites, slightly used. — UN court to rule on countries' duty to curb climate change. — Miners enlist Trump-connected K Street muscle. — France wants EU to punch back harder at Trump in tariff fight. LOBBY WATCH — Crestview's ASHTON ARSENAULT yesterday posted a meeting with Conservative MP and civil liberties caucus lead MARILYN GLADU on behalf of Rumble Canada. Top priority: 'Broadcasting policy, including the governing of online content.' — H+K's ELIZABETH SEIP registered for Indeed Canada, which wants conversations with federal officials about how the company 'can work with departments to better attract and retain the workforce and skills needed to support public service delivery and the overall hiring process.' PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Green MP (and new dad) MIKE MORRICE and SHAE MCGLYNN, head of eBay government relations in Canada. Noted: GERRY BYRNE, a former MP who pursued provincial politics in 2015, has announced that he will not seek reelection in the 2025 Newfoundland and Labrador general election. After a three-decade career and 10 consecutive elections — seven federal and three provincial — he plans to retire. Movers and shakers: VIDA EBADI, formerly a regional adviser at the Prime Minister's Office, is now director of policy and government relations at Clear Strategy … ELLEN KUSCHNIK joined the National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association as public affairs and policy manager. Kuschnik has worked for federal ministers and MPs since 2015. PIERCE COLLIER is now director of parliamentary affairs and issues management, and senior adviser, to Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON. ELAN HARPER is moving on from the Office of the Leader of the Opposition, where she led policy on files including finance, tax, energy, environment, competition and innovation. Harper started a new job as director of Canadian business tax at Andersen in Canada … Former MP KEVIN VUONG is now a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Vuong lists expertise in health policy, NATO and Indigenous rights. MARISSA NICOLE FORTUNE recently left the Privy Council Office's foreign and defense policy secretariat for a new role at Global Affairs Canada's United Nations division as a senior policy adviser … JOHN MACGREGOR is on his way out as head of mission at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Centre in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. Media mentions: The Line announced Calgary-based broadcaster and columnist ROB BREAKENRIDGE as host of 'The Line: Alberta' podcast. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Monday's answer: The head of Statistics Canada, MUNIR SHEIKH, resigned July 21, 2010, over the federal government's decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census. Props to JOHN PEPPER, MALCOLM MCKAY, PATRICIA-ANNE CÔTÉ, ELIZABETH BURN, PATRICK JUNEAU, BOB GORDON, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and JOHN ECKER. Today's question: 'The government of our country has lost its wisest counselor and the people of Canada their greatest public servant.' Who died on this date in history? Answers to canadaplaybook@ Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
2 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Notes from DC at T-minus 11
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Happy Monday. Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Here's what's in today's edition: → T-minus 11 days — and widespread confusion in D.C. → One year after the Jasper inferno: Lessons learned. → A Washington correspondent becomes the story. Trade war Washington trade reporter DANIEL DESROCHERS writes to Canada Playbook: A LETTER FROM D.C. — 'Bonjour, hi' from the U.S., where President DONALD TRUMP says we're the 'hottest country anywhere in the world' and every time I step outside I'm inclined to believe it. Trump's not talking about the heat dome that's settled over Washington though — instead, the president appears positively chuffed with how his trade war has been going. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has collected more than $108 billion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, already more than the total collected in each of the past two fiscal years. In the meantime in the U.S., the economy has been chugging along, unemployment is low and the tariffs have only made a slight dent in inflation numbers. Countries are clamoring to cut some sort of deal. → But, beneath the surface, uncertainty reigns. Despite a public show of unity, many Republicans in Washington are quietly unsettled by the scope of Trump's tariffs. The justification some Republicans have frequently leaned on is that Trump, the 'dealmaker-in-chief,' is just using the tariffs as a way to open new export markets. 'I'm hoping these tariffs are a means, not an end,' Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) told POLITICO last week. → There's just one problem: Trump seems less and less interested in trade deals. When talking to reporters, he increasingly refers to the form letters he sent setting tariff rates for various trading partners as 'deals.' He's said a few more trade agreements may come before Aug. 1, but he's appeared nonchalant about whether they'll actually come to fruition. 'For the most part, I'm very happy with the letters,' Trump said last week. 'You know, the letters are a deal. I can't explain it any better.' That hasn't stopped the flurry of activity for Trump's top trade officials, who are continuing to negotiate as countries attempt to stave off crushing tariffs. But even amid ongoing negotiations, there's widespread confusion about what Trump's letters — or lack of letters — mean for a deal. Indonesia, which received a letter, struck an agreement, though the details are sparse. Top trade officials like Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT and Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK are still meeting with Japan, even as it is under U.S. crosshairs. Meanwhile countries like India and Switzerland consider the fact they didn't get a lettter a positive sign in their negotiations. India, which has allegedly been close to a deal for months, sent a trade delegation into town. Even when countries believe they've reached an agreement, it's up to Trump to decide whether he likes it. And sometimes he doesn't. Despite declaring a 'deal' with Vietnam, Trump changed the agreement at the last minute and Vietnam says nothing has been finalized. → So, what does this mean for Canada? Today on Parliament Hill, Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will talk trade with a bipartisan delegation of four U.S. senators: RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) and CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.). Trump has imposed the highest average tariff rate since the Great Depression, but he twice delayed imposing rates between 20 and 50 percent on most of the U.S. trading partners and scaled back an effective trade embargo with China. Businesses are bracing for retaliation, Wall Street seems to be betting Trump will chicken out and his Republican base is patiently giving their leader time to figure it out. → In other words: Who knows? THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING SUMMIT IN COTTAGE COUNTRY The PM and the premiers regroup with Trump on their minds: The PM is set to join Canada's premiers in Muskoka district on Tuesday to discuss the state of Canada-U.S. negotiations. The Council of the Federation — that's all 13 provincial and territorial premiers — is holding its summer meeting in Huntsville, Ontario, through Wednesday. 'With President Trump taking direct aim at our economy, we need to build and we need to build fast,' Ontario Premier DOUG FORD said when he announced details of the confab. — Captains Canada: 'The access is phenomenal,' Ford said of his relationship with the PM in an interview published in the National Post over the weekend. 'I'll message him, he gets right back to me. It's all about communication and relationship-building.' He added: 'And, he's a very, very great business person.' — Later this week: Carney will travel to his hometown of Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, before heading to Inuvik on Thursday to co-host the Inuit-Crown Partnership Committee with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED. ONE YEAR LATER Jasper reflects, Alberta deflects after last summer's wildfire: The Rocky Mountain townsite of Jasper, Alberta, has organized a week of events around the anniversary of the wildfire that destroyed one-third of the area's homes and buildings. Emergency Management Minister ELEANOR OLSZEWSKI will take part in an official ceremony Tuesday with Mayor RICHARD IRELAND, Parks Canada CEO RON HALLMAN and Elder BRUCE CUTKNIFE of Samson Cree Nation. The municipality just released a 57-page report to share 'lessons learned' and 23 recommendations for future emergencies. One of its findings was quick to make news — that the Alberta government created command challenges — and now Premier DANIELLE SMITH is after an apology. 'This report comes as a shot out of the blue,' she said Friday. 'It's unfair, it's untrue and I would like them to withdraw it.' Jasper Chief Administrative Officer BILL GIVEN told the National Post that people should read the whole report, which also detailed 'a lot of strengths.' Olszewski has promised she'll have something 'more comprehensive' to say about the report after her visit. During a situational update on Friday, she reported 561 wildfires are burning in Canada. TRADE TEAM IN THE HOT SEAT House Republicans grill top officials on Trump's deal-making detours: Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee will meet with U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER and Commerce Secretary LUTNICK this week. U.S. lawmakers want the administration officials to brief them on the new wave of tariffs and ongoing negotiations with U.S. trading partners. We'll be listening in, especially after Greer recently told a manufacturing conference in Detroit that reaching new trade agreements is not his top priority. CBC News has notes from Lutnick's outing on Face the Nation over the weekend. — In related reading: DAN BROOKS contributed an opinion piece to POLITICO Magazine that will make relatable reading for anyone on Canada's negotiation team. Excerpt from The Just-Saying-Stuff Presidency: 'The confused, exhausted state in which we find ourselves after 10 years of continuously trying to guess when Trump means what he is saying feels, two presidencies in, like a chronic neurological condition.' THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM will meet with a bipartisan delegation of United States senators at 9:30 a.m. — Canada's premiers kick off their summer meeting in Huntsville. Playbook's MICKEY DJURIC is there, so reach out. The provincial and territorial leaders will spend today in consultation with Indigenous leaders. CONVERSATION STARTER NEW REP ON THE BLOCK — Former White House correspondent RICHARD MADAN has swapped a press pass for a seat at the Team Canada table. The former CBC and CTV correspondent is Manitoba's new trade representative in Washington, recruited by Premier WAB KINEW's New Democrat government. Madan joins a growing push from the provinces to maintain direct lines to D.C. in this moment of tariff turmoil. 'This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be part of the discussion, to use my skill set as a journalist, and be an advocate for a province,' Madan told Playbook. 'It's a way to help your country, but it's also a way to really advocate for something you believe in.' — Office revival: The province hasn't had an office in Washington for about a decade, Madan said. The premier approached him just after DONALD TRUMP's return to the White House. 'My role is to ensure that Manitoba's interests are advocated or defended when it comes to trade negotiations, whether it's tariffs, whether it's on [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement], or whether it's on supply chains,' he said. — Leveling up: Madan says the jump was an easy decision. He'd spent about 10 years as a Washington correspondent and has an extensive network dating to the first Trump administration. He covered the original USMCA negotiations. — Rare opportunity: 'It's such a historic and consequential time in the Canada-U.S. relationship,' said Madan, who once served as a legislative reporter in Manitoba. He joins Ontario's DAVID W. PATERSON, Alberta's NATHAN COOPER and Quebec's BENJAMIN BÉLAIR in repping Canada in D.C. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — 'We've come off peak chaos,' KEVIN CARMICHAEL writes at The Logic. 'Of course, everything's relative when the U.S. president treats the rudder of world affairs like it's an on/off switch.' — From NOJOUD AL MALLEES in the Globe: Tariffs are likely here to stay. What now, for Canada? — In the National Post considers how Trump could crush Canada's softwood exports. — ALEX BOYD of the Star reports on PIERRE POILIEVRE's campaign to secure the Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot. BEN WOODFINDEN, Poilievre's former communications director, tells her that people write off the Conservative leader at their own peril. 'If, a couple years from now, he goes on to become prime minister, the comeback starts here.' — From POLITICO's JAMES ANGELOS, NETTE NÖSTLINGER and CLEA CAULCUTT in Berlin: How Europe found a workaround to get Trump to help Ukraine. — 'We're looking at what tools and actions we can take federally to kickstart the market,' Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON told the Globe. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: B.C. Premier DAVID EBY, former MP LARRY MILLER and JONATHAN PERRON-CLOW of Resident Doctors of Canada. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Movers and shakers: Quebec Sen. PIERRE MOREAU, a former provincial Cabinet minister, has been tapped to take on the role of government representative in the Senate. Spotted: XAVIER TRUDEAU, hitting the stage at 27 Club for his EP release party. In the crowd: SOPHIE GRÉGOIRE TRUDEAU, GUILLAUME BERTRAND, MATHIS DENIS, CHRIS NARDI, GABRIEL BRUNET, MARIE-DANIELLE SMITH, KAITLIN POWER, RAISA PATEL, MARK RAMZY, SHIRAZ KEUSHGERIAN and GUILLAUME ST-PIERRE. ELLA-GRACE TRUDEAU joined her brother on stage for a song. Noted: President Trump nominated JEFFREY ANDERSON to serve as ambassador to the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal. PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter. From Pro's CARMEN PAUN: US has wasted hundreds of thousands of vaccines meant for Africa, health officials there say. In other news for Pro readers: — Trump AI Action Plan to slash regulations, streamline permits. — Tariff anxiety grips defense elites at Aspen conference. — Congress puts Montreal Protocol funding on the chopping block. — US won't abide by WHO's new rules for responding to pandemics. — Meta rebuffs Brussels over AI rules. — Aviation sector panics over looming trade war. LOBBY WATCH A check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: STEFANO HOLLANDS posted news of multiple meetings Friday on behalf of the Real Property Association of Canada — including with Finance Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Natural Resources Canada; Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada; and the PMO. He also met GALEN RICHARDSON, senior adviser of stakeholder relations in the office of Dominic LeBlanc, minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade. TRIVIA Friday's answer: Two provincial premiers have gone on to serve as prime minister: CHARLES TUPPER and JOHN SPARROW DAVID THOMPSON, both from Nova Scotia. Props to BOB GORDON, CHRIS RANDS, DARREN MAJOR, JEFFREY VALOIS, CAMERON RYAN, JOHN ECKER and JOHN PEPPER. Today's question: Who resigned on this date in history after weighing in 'on a technical statistical issue'? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
5 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Carney's reality check
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday! In today's edition: → What came of the MARK CARNEY-First Nations confab. → Trump's top trade rep reveals his priorities. → What keeps Cabmin PATTY HAJDU up at night. Trade war THE PRICE IS RIGHTS — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY was in listening mode at a high-stakes summit with Indigenous leaders on Thursday in Gatineau. The chiefs invited by his government had plenty to say. — Early reviews: Only midway through the First Nations Major Projects Summit, the British Columbia Assembly of First Nations circulated a sharply worded statement embargoed until later in the afternoon. The BC AFN appeared to have already drawn its conclusions about Ottawa's approach to resource and infrastructure development — a fast-tracked push motivated by DONALD TRUMP's trade war. 'The Government of Canada has been put on notice,' read the statement sent at 12:02 p.m. 'With or without you, First Nations will continue to exercise, assert, and implement our rights within our territories. We will exhaust every avenue necessary to ensure the federal government fully respects its own laws and upholds our legal orders.' → Call to action: 'We call on your government to stand in unity with First Nations across Canada and firmly commit to fully upholding First Nations' free, prior and informed consent within the One Canadian Economy Act.' Meanwhile, the reviews from chiefs poured in — and they were mixed. — Not a ringing endorsement: At 3:31 p.m., another statement came from Mikisew Cree First Nation in Alberta. 'This meeting is not consultation. There is a long road ahead for any meaningful consultation,' wrote Chief BILLY-JOE TUCCARO, who invited Carney to Fort Chipewyan in Treaty 8 territory — 'near where you were born in Fort Smith.' On that agenda: 'We can share with you how we have been severely impacted by the cumulative effects of virtually unmitigated development in our territory.' → Further reading: APTN's KARYN PUGLIESE received a leaked recording of the event's first day. — Baby steps: Chief KELSEY JACKO of Cold Lake First Nations, who told reporters he 'battled just to get speaking time' at Thursday's confab, said the trip to the nation's capital was worth his time because the PM promised to make a visit to Treaty 6 territory in Alberta. — The government's view: Indigenous Services Minister MANDY GULL-MASTY, the former Grand Chief of the Grand Council of the Crees, insisted on CBC's Power & Politics that First Nations buy-in is essential for big projects in the national interest. Gull-Masty said the chance of a project going ahead without Indigenous consent was 'very low' and 'almost nonexistent.' She acknowledged the frustration among some chiefs. 'It was clear that there were varying degrees of trust in the room,' the minister told DAVID COCHRANE. But she also referenced communities that wanted in — and suggested their stories would come out in the coming days. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM Carney has no public events on his itinerary. — 11 a.m. Former Justice Minister IRWIN COTLER, former Foreign Affairs Minister JOHN BAIRD and Argentina's Ambassador to Canada MARTINEZ GRAMUGLIA host a virtual event reflecting on the 31 years after the deadly AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires. — 2:30 p.m. Emergency Management Minister ELEANOR OLSZEWSKI, Energy Minister TIM HODGSON, Minister of Indigenous Services MANDY GULL-MASTY and Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN will provide an update on the wildfire season. For your radar MISSILE DEFENSE — Defense Minister DAVID MCGUINTY has quietly removed all of Canada's restrictions on air and missile defense — a potential reversal of a decades-old policy of non-participation in that piece of continental defense. McGuinty's department snuck the change into a press release this week following the minister's first trip to NORAD HQ in his current role. — Argument in favor: 'This will enable Canada to strengthen its defence capabilities and better deter and defend against threats to our country's sovereignty, population, and critical infrastructure.' — Long time coming: Canada has in recent years tiptoed toward a policy shift. Former defense ministers ANITA ANAND and BILL BLAIR both opened the door to Canada's participation in ballistic missile defense. Prime Minister MARK CARNEY has also nodded to joining Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile shield project. But the government hasn't yet committed definitively. McGuinty's announcement appears to move the ball forward. But it's still unclear exactly what Ottawa is planning. — Stay tuned: We've asked the minister's office and the defense department what it all means. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU — Asked this week about the state of talks with Washington, the PM reported that Canada is 'in the midst of long now and tough negotiations.' Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE told Bloomberg on Thursday that any deal is likely to feature tariffs — a flag Carney was first to raise. → The view from D.C.: Trump's chief trade negotiator said this week that reaching new trade agreements is not his top priority, POLITICO's DOUG PALMER reports. 'Sometimes you have a U.S. Trade Representative, and they say ... I want to have a trade deal with X country and X country by the time I've done,' U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER said at a manufacturing conference in Detroit. 'That's not how I think about it.' — Greer's goals: 'One, I want to reverse the trend of our global trade deficit in goods and keep it decreasing over time. Second, I want to increase real median household income in the U.S. And third, I want to increase manufacturing share of GDP.' — For the record: Palmer notes that Greer indicated a willingness to continue talking with countries seeking to reduce their tariff rates, but his overall theme was in line with a central belief of the Trump administration — that using tariffs to boost U.S. manufacturing will create a stronger and more stable economy. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: The number of candidates running for election in Battle River-Crowfoot. CBC reports that the Longest Ballot Committee is hoping to sign up 200. 'We have to take action because this is a scam,' Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said during a visit to the Alberta riding he's expected to win on Aug. 18. Down: Gas prices, by 13.4 percent last month compared to June 2024 — largely thanks to the government's removal of the federal carbon price. CONVERSATION STARTER NORTHERN REFLECTIONS — DONALD TRUMP's steel and aluminum tariffs are biting into Northern Ontario's backbone, threatening to kill jobs and gut industries — and forcing businesses to consider packing up for the U.S. Jobs Minister PATTY HAJDU is trying to put a stop to that. 'If they lose their jobs, if the economy shifts, if there are wide swaths of sectors that are deeply impacted — that doesn't just impact that particular worker at that plant, that's their entire family and community,' she told Playbook over the phone Wednesday. Hajdu oversees economic development in the region, which is facing serious pressures as the impacts of U.S. tariffs take root. Indigenous workers are expected to be 'disproportionately affected given their strong representation in high-risk sectors such as forestry, mining, and oil and gas,' according to a June briefing note prepared for Hajdu on the regional impact of U.S. tariffs. — Lifelines: With anxiety mounting, Ottawa announced this week it's unlocking C$70 million to help northern Ontario workers, 'for the rapid reskilling of any workers that are impacted by changing economic realities, job losses, layoffs,' Hajdu said. The Liberal government is also taking a 'buy Canadian' approach to national projects and defense contracts to help stabilize the steel industry. Still, Hajdu says she lies awake at night, worried about what's ahead. — Regional snapshot: Around 140 manufacturers and fabricators from across Northern Ontario could be impacted by the steel and aluminum tariffs, the briefing note reveals. Nearly half the region's population lives in small, spread-out communities — 38 rely on a single industry to support their local economy. Of those, 28 are First Nations reserves. 'What I'm ultimately worried about is the entire supply chain across Northern Ontario,' Hajdu said. The briefing note for Hajdu said small- and medium-sized businesses in northern Ontario sell 91.9 percent of their products to the U.S., and 'providing vital goods and services to the steel industry' Hajdu said. 'This is a real threat to the Northern Ontario economy,' she said. — Feeling anxious: On Wednesday, Hajdu visited Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie. Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is also planning a visit. The company is one of the largest employers in the region, supporting 2,700 jobs and 6,000 pensioners. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . MORNING MUST-CLICKS — The Globe's STEPHANIE LEVITZ and LAURA STONE report that Ontario Progressive Conservatives have scheduled a convention for the same January weekend as Poilievre's leadership review. — SARAH SPANIER, an independent candidate in next month's Battle River-Crowfoot byelection, has stopped door knocking in the face of death threats she attributes to her trans rights advocacy. — The NYT looks at how Trump's attacks on the Fed have rippled through the global economy. — 'Our information environment is becoming more chaotic,' TIMOTHY CAULFIELD writes in a piece for The Walrus in which he shares the things that keep him up at night. LOBBY WATCH — McKinsey & Co. has registered to lobby the federal government. Among the subjects in the global consultancy filing: 'Discussions on trends and research on government efficiency, operations and performance measurement, and management in the public sector.' — Consultant SUSAN KING logged a July 3 meeting on behalf of the National Association of Women and the Law with KATHARINE HEUS in the Prime Minister's Office. — As the PM met First Nations leaders on Thursday, several Indigenous organizations popped up in the federal lobbyist registry: → Sandstone is repping Wiikwemkoong Unceded Territory, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation and First Nations Finance Authority. Crestview registered on behalf of National Indigenous Collaborative Housing Inc. StrategyCorp signed up with the First Nations with Schools Collective. Blackbird is lobbying on behalf of Native Child and Family Services of Toronto. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Alberta politician STEPHEN MANDEL (80!), former Bloc Québécois MP DENIS TRUDEL, retired sportscaster BRIAN WILLIAMS, former MP and MPP STEVE MAHONEY, and former MNA GHISLAIN BOLDUC. Saturday: Yorkville Strategies' BROOKE PIGOTT and former Sen. GRANT MITCHELL. Sunday: Sen. MICHÈLE AUDETTE, Orléans MPP STEPHEN BLAIS and KATIE HEELIS of Enterprise Canada. Noted: DEBORAH LYONS is making an early exit from her post as Canada's special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combating antisemitism. Nunavut politician DAVID AKEEAGOK tells Nunatsiaq News, 'in no way did I announce that I am retiring.' SHARAN KAUR posted on LinkedIn that she'd joined Navigator as principal. Media mentions: DAVID MOSCROP is joining The Globe and Mail as a contributing columnist. Send Playbookers tips to canadaplaybook@ PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Carney seeks common ground with First Nations. In other Pro headlines: — US exporters fear Trump trade war fallout. — Why the megalaw didn't kill Biden's biggest climate program. — EPA nudges out more staff, announces 'next phase' of reorg. — Enviros appeal permit for Musk's xAI turbines. — Newsom floats draft bill language to streamline new drilling in existing oil fields. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: NANCY GREENE was Canada's flag bearer at the 1968 Winter Olympic Games in Grenoble, France. And ABBY HOFFMAN was the first woman to carry Canada's flag into a Summer Olympics, on July 17, 1976, in Montreal. We accepted either answer. Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, ALEX WELLSTEAD, DARRYL DAMUDE, JOHN PEPPER, ELIZABETH BURN, DARREN MAJOR, YAROSLAV BARAN, RAY DEL BIANCO, MELISSA FELD, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, CULLY ROBINSON, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, MARC LEBLANC. We'd also like to commend DOUG SMALL, who wrote in with Wednesday's answer, which was … DOUG SMALL. Friday's question: How many premiers have gone on to serve as prime minister? Answer to canadaplaybook@
Politico
6 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
A reckoning for Bill C-5
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → 'Open dialogue' is on the agenda as the PM meets Indigenous leaders. → Deal or no deal? Opposition leaders want to know. → Plus, the 10 most lobbied public office holders in Ottawa last month. Trade war HARD BARGAIN — The room to be in today is in Gatineau, where Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is meeting First Nations chiefs at the Canadian Museum of History. This will not be a simple nation-to-nation summit on the heels of 'nation-building' legislation rushed to royal assent before Parliament rose for the summer. Carney agreed to the summit following backlash from Indigenous leaders. But there is no single Indigenous view of Bill C-5. Consensus won't come easy. — How to run a meeting: In 'Value(s),' Carney credits Amazon with inspiring his approach to running meetings during his stint at the Bank of England. Keep his decision-oriented style in mind as he delivers opening remarks to the chiefs gathered at the museum. → Focus the mind: 'The chair should set out the purpose of the meeting, ensure that everyone has a chance to contribute, that no one dominates or derails the discussion, and keep the meeting on time. The decision should be clearly communicated at the meeting, and any follow-up actions assigned immediately.' Carney writes that he is also big on everybody doing their reading. Ottawa asked chiefs to submit questions in advance. Yesterday, federal officials briefed First Nations leaders on the technical aspects of C-5. — Point of contention: Assembly of First Nations National Chief CINDY WOODHOUSE NEPINAK told reporters Wednesday that C-5, which pledges to get big projects built, doesn't go far enough to satisfy Indigenous rights. 'Until an appropriate process founded in free, prior and informed consent is established between First Nations rights holders and the Crown, the Crown's legal obligations will not be met,' Woodhouse Nepinak said. Sen. PAUL PROSPER failed to pass an amendment enshrining that principle in the bill. Still, Carney has long held that his government 'will be firmly guided' by it. — Not a monolith: Woodhouse Nepinak acknowledged differences of opinion on the new law. AFN has hosted virtual forums that revealed a range of views. 'This diversity is to be celebrated, not feared or leveraged against us,' she said. 'Many First Nations are very concerned about Bill C-5, while other chiefs want to proceed quickly with projects, resource revenue-sharing agreements and project ownership. We support every First Nations rights holder, whether they oppose or support this bill.' — Compromise watch: Woodhouse Nepinak advocates for a broadened definition of projects in the national interest prioritized by C-5. She proposed clean water systems, infrastructure, housing, schools, internet access, and cell phone service for First Nations communities. She credited Carney with agreeing to the meeting. TERRY TEEGEE, the AFN's B.C. regional chief, was less kind: 'I'm a bit more cynical,' he said. — On the agenda: Carney and Woodhouse Nepinak will open the summit, which then covers four working sessions that will each run 60-90 minutes. Eight members of Carney's ministry are scheduled to join the discussions. Note the optimism in the time-slot titles. → 9:15 a.m.: Open dialogue on meaningful consultation (90 minutes) → 11:15 a.m.: The Major Projects Office and the Indigenous Advisory Council (1 hour) → 1:15 p.m.: First Nations economic prosperity, partnership and participation (1.5 hours) → 3:15 p.m.: Working together (1 hour) — The final word: Carney is scheduled to close the summit with 10 minutes of remarks before a prayer. ELBOW ROOM — Questions about the status of Canada-U.S. negotiations dominated the prime minister's presser in the Hammer on Wednesday. The PM mostly avoided engaging with reporters about the state of tariffs and counter-tariffs. 'If I responded … it would be a bad response in the middle of a negotiation.' He was in Hamilton, Ontario, to announce the overhaul of Canada's steel trade policy and protect its domestic industry from a flood of cheap imports, especially from China. — Measures include: A 25 percent tariff on Chinese steel imports. The government also plans to adjust import quotas to enhance the competitiveness of Canadian steel. — Some exceptions: The measures do not apply to the United States or Mexico. — Double or nothing: Carney's default mode on the campaign — and now in the PMO — is to make big promises, then double down. He first set a July 16 deadline for a new Canada-U.S. deal, which was most recently punted to Aug. 1 following renewed Trump threats. — Blame game: Opposition leaders were quick to frame the PM's announcement as a failure to secure a broader deal with the president. 'How can anyone believe anything Mr. Carney says?' Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE asked his X followers. 'Only months ago, he ran an entire campaign promising he would never back down on trade. Now he is accepting permanent U.S. tariffs on Canada. A complete and utter capitulation.' — Piling on: Carney has 'renounced and made compromises on many things so far without achieving anything in the delays he himself has created and announced,' Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET told reporters in Ottawa. — Potted plants: Liberal MPs SIMA ACAN, CHRIS BITTLE, JOHN-PAUL DANKO, KARINA GOULD, LISA HEPFNER and ASLAM RANA were behind Carney at his event. Elsewhere on the trade front: — PMO travel planning: President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM said Wednesday that she is planning to host the PM in Mexico, with the date still to be confirmed. The news follows a phone call the leaders shared this week. According to a readout from the Mexican embassy, the leaders 'reaffirmed their shared commitment to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.' No mention of that in the PM's record of the conversation, though his office noted they discussed 'how to strengthen the Canadian and Mexican economies and enhance their global competitiveness.' — White House visits: The EU's trade chief, MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ, is in Washington for talks with his U.S. counterparts, European Commission spokesperson OLOF GILL confirmed to our colleagues in Brussels. U.K. Trade Secretary JONATHAN REYNOLDS plans to head to D.C. at the end of the month. — Watch the mail: Trump said Wednesday that he intends to issue a single letter telling more than 150 countries what tariff rate they will face. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM MARK CARNEY's itinerary notes there will be open coverage off the top of the First Nations Major Projects Summit at 8:45 a.m. The remainder of the event is closed to media. — Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM are in South Africa through Friday for meetings of the G20 and G7 finance ministers and central bank governors. — International Trade Minister MANINDER SIDHU will deliver a 3 p.m. local time keynote speech at the Surrey Board of Trade. — Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW appears on CBC's 'Metro Morning' with DAVID COMMON. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — Conservative MP ADAM CHAMBERS joined SEAN SPEER to discuss the state of the Canadian economy. — Liberal Parlsec COREY HOGAN substacked a 10-step guide to shrinking a government department — based on his own experience in Alberta's provincial bureaucracy. — KATHRYN MAY notes in Policy Options that Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX's term is up soon, with no replacement named. — Health Minister MARJORIE MICHEL may be unknown to most Canadians, but Liberals call her the 'godmother,' ANTOINE TRÉPANIER writes in the National Post. — 'Poilievre offers a vision to energize the base, but the path to broader electoral success remains fraught,' JEN GERSON writes in the Star. — POLITICO's AARON MAK talked to social-media experts about how ELON MUSK's remake of X helped light the fuse under the Epstein conspiracy saga now blowing up in the White House's face. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest policy newsletter: Steel resolve: Canada revamps trade rules. In news for Pro subscribers: — Trump says he will set tariffs for 150 small countries in one swoop. — USTR launches Section 301 probe targeting Brazil's digital barriers. — Canada's new steel tariffs target China, exempt US. — Britain's trade chief will head to Washington to press White House on tariffs. — German finance minister calls for 'decisive countermeasures' if no US trade deal. LOBBY WATCH FOLLOW THE TRAIL — Playbook compiled the total number of June meetings so far reported by lobbyists. Here are the designated public office holders — politicians, staffers and senior public servants — who took the most meetings last month (with totals in parentheses): — MÉLANIE JOLY, industry minister (50) — TIM HODGSON, energy and natural resources minister (43) — JOSHUA SWIFT, Prime Minister's Office policy coordinator (38) — SAMIR KASSAM, Hodgson deputy chief of staff (37) — TIM LOGAN, Joly senior policy adviser (34) — KODY BLOIS, parlsec to the PM (30) — PAUL MOEN, Joly chief of staff (29) — PATRICK HALLEY, Department of Finance assistant deputy minister for international trade and finance (29) — MATTHEW O'CONNELL, finance minister's deputy policy director (27) — EAMONN MCGUINTY, Hodgson chief of staff (27) — Also noted: GT & Co's CATHY JO NOBLE registered to lobby on behalf of the Coalition for North American Trade, where former Canadian chief negotiator STEVE VERHEUL is a co-chair. Noble's registration notes the coalition's members include Volkswagen, Dairy Farmers of Canada, Walmart and the U.S.-based Consumer Technology Association. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to McMillan Vantage VP ASHLEY CSANADY and Globe opinion editor ADRIAN LEE, former MPs CHARLES LAPOINTE and CYRIL KEEPER. HBD+1 to LAURA SCAFFIDI. Noted: More than 50 candidates are registered in the Alberta by-election where PIERRE POILIEVRE hopes to win back a seat, CTV reports. Export Development Canada's most recent Global Economic Outlook, which features a frayed rope on its cover, predicts a Canadian recession this year — and notes a spike in USMCA compliance among Canadian exporters amid tariff uncertainty that exempts products covered by the trade deal. Movers and shakers: LISA JØRGENSEN updated her job title on LinkedIn to director of global affairs in the Prime Minister's Office. LAUREN WILKINSON, a former comms staffer to Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI, joined McMillan Vantage as summer associate. Spotted: LYNETTE CORBETT, former chief of staff to then-Conservative Leader RONA AMBROSE, coming out swinging in defense of her friend JENNI BYRNE: 'At this point I hope Jenni (the most successful CPC operative in the history of the party) walks away from the movement,' she said on X. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Wednesday's answer: On July 16, 1990, a judge threw out charges against then-Global TV reporter DOUG SMALL in the 1989 federal budget leak case. Props to RAY DEL BIANCO, PATRICK JUNEAU and DAVE PENNER. Bonus marks to ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, GOZDE KAZAZOGLU and ELIZABETH BURN. Today's question: Who was the first woman to carry Canada's flag at the Olympics? For bonus marks, connect your answer to this date in history. Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
