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Business Standard
06-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold prices may be volatile as Trump's tariff deadline approaches: Analysts
Gold prices may see heightened volatility in the coming week as investors track a crucial July 9 tariff deadline, policy signals from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, and key global macroeconomic data, analysts said. "These factors could influence the near-term trajectory of gold prices," analysts said, adding that traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of any major policy cues or geopolitical developments. The 90-day suspension of Trump tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, ends on July 9, reviving the risk of a 26 per cent additional duty on Indian goods entering the US. "Going ahead, the focus will be on the interest rate cuts by key central banks, especially US Fed Reserve, the outcome of trade negotiation between US and its trading partners, incoming global economic data, which could impact the near-term gold prices," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, said. Investors will also closely monitor the release of the US Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes. Last week, the precious metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura, said gold prices in the international market, currently at USD 3,345 per ounce, could remain under selling pressure due to the solid US macroeconomic data that dented hopes of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Despite some corrective rallies, Ramaswamy stated that "the short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend". Ramaswamy, however, said fiscal deficit worries in the US and impending Trump tariffs decision could trigger fresh volatility and lift demand for the yellow metal. Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global gold reserves in May, he said. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices continue to be supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing geopolitical concerns. "Dollar weakness has been a key part of gold prices rising in 2024 as well as in 2025. This trend will continue for the rest of the year," Mallya said. Meanwhile, JM Financial's Pranav Mer also pointed to persistent central bank purchases, and increased retail and institutional investments via ETFs as factors bolstering the long-term bullish case for gold prices.


Time of India
06-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price outlook: Fed policy, July 9 tariff deadline and data cues may swing yellow metal; analysts see long-term bullish case
Gold prices are likely to witness sharp fluctuations in the coming week as investors brace for key global triggers, including the US Federal Reserve's policy signals, the July 9 deadline on suspended US tariffs, and crucial economic data releases, analysts said. 'Traders are expected to stay cautious ahead of any major policy cues or geopolitical developments, with these factors likely to influence the near-term trajectory of gold prices,' analysts told PTI. The 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, ends on July 9. If not extended, the suspension's expiry could revive a 26 per cent additional duty on Indian goods entering the US, a move that could rattle markets. Central bank policy, trade signals in spotlight According to Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, the immediate market focus will be on any rate cut commentary from the US Federal Reserve, outcomes from US trade negotiations, and fresh macroeconomic data from key economies — all of which could weigh heavily on gold in the short term, the agency reported. Investors are also eyeing the minutes of the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting due this week, which may provide more clarity on the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo On the MCX, gold futures for August delivery rose by Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, last week. Dollar strength may cap gains, but volatility expected In the global market, gold is currently trading around $3,345 per ounce. However, solid US macroeconomic data has tempered expectations of a July interest rate cut, said N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura. 'Despite some corrective rallies, the short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend,' Ramaswamy noted. At the same time, he said that growing fiscal deficit concerns in the US and the potential return of Trump tariffs could drive fresh volatility and revive safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Dollar weakness, ETF inflows and central bank buying support bullish case Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said a weakening US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions have been key drivers of gold prices in both 2024 and 2025. 'Dollar weakness has been a key part of gold prices rising in 2024 as well as in 2025. This trend will continue for the rest of the year,' said Mallya. According to Mer, central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global reserves in May, reinforcing the precious metal's appeal as a long-term hedge. He also highlighted strong inflows from retail and institutional investors via ETFs as supportive of a bullish outlook. In the first half of 2025, gold has outperformed all major asset classes, clocking gains of nearly 25 per cent, Mer added. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
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Business Standard
06-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold prices may be volatile as Trump's tariff dedline approches: Analysts
Gold prices may see heightened volatility in the coming week as investors track a crucial July 9 tariff deadline, policy signals from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, and key global macroeconomic data, analysts said. "These factors could influence the near-term trajectory of gold prices," analysts said, adding that traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of any major policy cues or geopolitical developments. The 90-day suspension of Trump tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, ends on July 9, reviving the risk of a 26 per cent additional duty on Indian goods entering the US. "Going ahead, the focus will be on the interest rate cuts by key central banks, especially US Fed Reserve, the outcome of trade negotiation between US and its trading partners, incoming global economic data, which could impact the near-term gold prices," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, said. Investors will also closely monitor the release of the US Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes. Last week, the precious metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura, said gold prices in the international market, currently at USD 3,345 per ounce, could remain under selling pressure due to the solid US macroeconomic data that dented hopes of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Despite some corrective rallies, Ramaswamy stated that "the short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend". Ramaswamy, however, said fiscal deficit worries in the US and impending Trump tariffs decision could trigger fresh volatility and lift demand for the yellow metal. Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global gold reserves in May, he said. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices continue to be supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing geopolitical concerns. "Dollar weakness has been a key part of gold prices rising in 2024 as well as in 2025. This trend will continue for the rest of the year," Mallya said. Meanwhile, JM Financial's Pranav Mer also pointed to persistent central bank purchases, and increased retail and institutional investments via ETFs as factors bolstering the long-term bullish case for gold prices. Gold prices have outperformed all the asset classes in the first half of 2025 with gains of nearly 25 per cent, Mer said.


Time of India
20-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: Meltdown as prices fall by Rs 600/10 gram amid profit booking. Can bulls stage a comeback?
Gold prices fell on Friday as investors took refuge in the greenback amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, a status quo on the US interest rate has helped the dollar index (DXY) strengthen, reducing some appeal in the yellow metal. The domestic gold prices fell sharply taking cues from the international prices. Gold rate today On the MCX, the August Gold futures were trading at Rs 98,664, down by Rs 665 or 0.67% from the Thursday closing price. Meanwhile, gold contracts on the COMEX were hovering around $3,367.20 per troy ounce, plunging by $40.90 or 1.20%. The movement in gold rates are inversely related to the dollar movement. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the returns on dollar-denominated assets like the US treasury bonds or savings accounts become less attractive and hence global investors may move their money to countries with higher interest rates, reducing demand for USD. Commenting on the action, Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services said that the breather this week was on profit-booking, after the U.S. Fed's hawkish comments on interest rates and easing geo-political risk premium. The Street awaits U.S. President Donald Trump's decision if the US will enter the Iran-Israel war in two weeks. "On charts prices may find some resistance around Rs 99,300-99,650, while on the downside support is seen at Rs 98,000-97,650," Mer said. The price of physical gold in Delhi-NCR market is still above the Rs 1 lakh mark. This includes a 3% GST levy. Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont also sees profit-booking in gold after record highs of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 gram on the MCX. "Precious metals have reversed as support from growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is offset by a stronger dollar overall and the possibility of fewer interest rate reductions from the US," Chainani said. Technical triggers "Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of Rs 99,000($3,360) and Rs 101,000 ($3,475). Despite the Fed's hawkish tone, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to offer downside protection for gold, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities opines. "The broader trend remains range-bound to positive, with a key support level seen at $3,290, and strong resistance near $3,500 on Comex. Unless there is a clear resolution on geopolitical fronts or a shift in Fed commentary, gold is likely to stay buoyant within this broad band," he added. Silver price today The July silver futures plunged by Rs 1,395 or 1.3% and were trading around Rs 1,05,998. On the COMEX, silver contracts fell by $1.128 or 3.06% per troy ounce to trade around $35.78. Silver prices have retraced from its high, next support is Rs 105,300($35.50), said Chainani, adding that prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is Rs 104,000 ($34.50), he added. Also Read: Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone? ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)


Economic Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold price prediction: Meltdown as prices fall by Rs 600/10 gram amid profit booking. Can bulls stage a comeback?
Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened amid US Fed's hawkish stance and cooling geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Profit-booking also weighed on sentiment, with gold dropping on both MCX and COMEX. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Gold rate today Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Technical triggers Silver price today Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Gold prices fell on Friday as investors took refuge in the greenback amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, a status quo on the US interest rate has helped the dollar index (DXY) strengthen, reducing some appeal in the yellow metal. The domestic gold prices fell sharply taking cues from the international the MCX, the August Gold futures were trading at Rs 98,664, down by Rs 665 or 0.67% from the Thursday closing price. Meanwhile, gold contracts on the COMEX were hovering around $3,367.20 per troy ounce, plunging by $40.90 or 1.20%.The movement in gold rates are inversely related to the dollar movement. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the returns on dollar-denominated assets like the US treasury bonds or savings accounts become less attractive and hence global investors may move their money to countries with higher interest rates, reducing demand for on the action, Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services said that the breather this week was on profit-booking, after the U.S. Fed's hawkish comments on interest rates and easing geo-political risk Street awaits U.S. President Donald Trump's decision if the US will enter the Iran-Israel war in two weeks."On charts prices may find some resistance around Rs 99,300-99,650, while on the downside support is seen at Rs 98,000-97,650," Mer price of physical gold in Delhi-NCR market is still above the Rs 1 lakh mark. This includes a 3% GST Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont also sees profit-booking in gold after record highs of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 gram on the MCX."Precious metals have reversed as support from growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is offset by a stronger dollar overall and the possibility of fewer interest rate reductions from the US," Chainani said."Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of Rs 99,000($3,360) and Rs 101,000 ($3,475).Despite the Fed's hawkish tone, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to offer downside protection for gold, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities opines. "The broader trend remains range-bound to positive, with a key support level seen at $3,290, and strong resistance near $3,500 on Comex. Unless there is a clear resolution on geopolitical fronts or a shift in Fed commentary, gold is likely to stay buoyant within this broad band," he July silver futures plunged by Rs 1,395 or 1.3% and were trading around Rs 1,05,998. On the COMEX, silver contracts fell by $1.128 or 3.06% per troy ounce to trade around $ prices have retraced from its high, next support is Rs 105,300($35.50), said Chainani, adding that prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is Rs 104,000 ($34.50), he added.