Latest news with #Pundits
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Carolina Hurricanes Build A Stellar Core Through The Turn Of The Decade
For a few years now, the Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the sexy picks to win the Stanley Cup. Pundits, fans and hockey executives see Carolina as a team with a terrific core – and clearly, Hurricanes management feels the same way.
Forbes
24-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Social Security Faces Cuts Even Though There's A Fix For Its Problems
FILE - A Social Security card is displayed on Oct. 12, 2021, in Tigard, Ore. The go-broke dates for ... More Medicare and Social Security's trust funds have moved up as rising health care costs and new legislation affecting Social Security benefits have contributed to closer projected depletion dates. That's according to an annual report released Wednesday. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane, File) Social Security continues to be in trouble. Pundits and congressional representatives often argue at length about what needs to be done to keep an important safety net that has repeatedly proven its value by reducing poverty. Suggestions include raising the retirement age and cutting benefits. No need to worry about the latter as that will happen automatically in 2033. And yet, it doesn't need to, as there's a straightforward solution to the problem. It's just one that people in Congress seem to dislike. The Growing Problem The recent The 2025 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds — called the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report for short — had, as has become usual, more sobering news about Social Security. Using current assumptions, the cost of the two funds 'exceeds total income in every year of the long-range period, which runs from 2025 through 2099.' By 2033, the OSAI reserves will be exhausted, triggering an automatic cut of 23%. Every older retired person you know who has eked out living expenses from Social Security will find themselves losing almost a quarter of their income. (The Disability Insurance Trust Fund wouldn't be depleted and so doesn't face the same deadline.) Backfilling the program will be difficult. First, the United States continues to bet on borrowing money to pay its bills by selling Treasury notes and bonds. These instruments have a price that one pays to provide a loan, and a yield — the interest paid on the money the country borrows. Social Security. On secondary markets, the price and yield move inversely. The higher the yield, the lower the price, meaning there's less demand, which has increasingly been the case. Borrowing money through selling Treasury instruments means paying higher interest rates, increasing the national debt. Service on that debt is already more than a trillion dollars a year. That's already more than the annual Department of Defense budget and will continue to grow. A General Fix The typical discussion about fixing the retirement fund is that the shortfall is due to an aging population. That frequently gets people upset because they say they paid into the system and should get everything back. That's not how Social Security works. It was never a personal savings account. Instead, it's more like insurance. People pay into the system over the long haul, with the collected funds used to cover payouts when necessary. Like insurance premiums, the regular payment of Social Security-related taxes aren't yours. They go into keeping the system going. According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, to set things right, either an immediate 29% increase in payroll taxes or a 22% cut in benefits would be necessary to set things straight. Or some combination of the two. Wait to start until 2034 and it would require a 34% increase in payroll taxes, or 26% benefits cut. That's points to the power of compound interest. A Different Twist On Taxes When considering taxes, the expectation is that everyone's payroll taxes should go up. But according to a long-standing view of the Social Security Administration's Chief Actuary Stephen Goss, there is a slightly different take. The big problem has been rising income inequality, particularly between 1983 and 2000. The best-paid 6% of people saw their incomes rise by 62% in inflation-adjusted terms. The other 94% saw their incomes increase by only 17%. The large portion of income gains of the top 6% were above the maximum taxable income level. They got out of paying the same percentage of their incomes into the system that everyone else paid. There is also the compounding factor that, for many years, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low, meaning yields of Treasury instruments fell and Social Security, which is required by law to invest only in these, made a lot less investment income. One possibility is to remove the cap from payroll taxes and let the wealthiest pay the same percentage of their income as everyone else. Even though that won't immediately make up for the 17-year period of sharp growth, it would help bring in more revenue.
BBC News
26-05-2025
- Sport
- BBC News
Was Robison's criticism of Amorim fair?
We asked for your views on Paul Robinson's criticism of Ruben Amorim's post-match speech against Aston are some of your comments:Dave: Robinson clearly doesn't understand the point here. Amorim was brought in halfway through the season when he wanted to start at the end of the season, and is dealing with a team devoid of talent, some players with attitude problems and three attackers out on loan. Why would you drop all your principles and your system as soon as you come in just because it would paper over the cracks?Scotty: Who cares what Paul Robinson thinks? Amorim will come good next year. This team needs to be stripped and rebuilt and not only has Ruben spoke the truth throughout his time at United, so far he's not been afraid to call out players and make it clear he won't change his Robinson is right. You play to the strengths of the squad until you can get the pieces in place to play the formation and style you It feels like Amorim can't win with the pundits. Robinson is criticising him, but what is he expected to say? He apologised, admitted the season was a disaster and said better times are coming. Does Robinson expect him to stand in front of the fans and say how great everything has been? I'm sure he'd be criticised if he did that, Completely agree. Amorim did very well in Portugal but his huge shortfalls have been found out in the Premier League. One-dimensional tactics, unable to find ways to change and influence a match with substitutions, similar players brought on with same formation and tactics and he does not change things that aren't going Not sure what ex-goalkeeper Paul Robinson's management credentials are but Manchester United have been broken for over a decade. I, for one, buy into Amorim's approach and not falling into the quick-fix solution like every predecessor post Fergie. Fixing culture and bad leadership takes time.
Forbes
25-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Bond Yields & Stocks: Something's Happening Here
The recent sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields has raised questions about whether the move is ... More connected to US fiscal policy or the end of American exceptionalism. The evidence for alternate explanations is examined. Despite some pundits being quite convinced that US fiscal policy or the end of American exceptionalism is the reason for the recent rise in US Treasury yields, Buffalo Springfield was closer to reality when they sang, 'Something's happening here, What it is ain't exactly clear.' It is not disputed that 10-year US Treasury yields are 52 basis points (0.52%) higher since the 2025 low of 3.99% on April 4. Using US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) data, expected higher inflation accounted for 15 basis points, while the remaining 37 are from a higher real (after-inflation) return. 10-Year US Treasury Note: Yield Decomposition Notably, yields were at their nadir when the betting odds of recession were at their highest. As one should expect, yields have risen as the odds of a recession have declined. Directionally, the move in yields is logical, though some might still argue that yields have increased more than is warranted. Yields & Recession Odds US government bond yields in the US have risen more than many other developed countries since April 4. Interestingly, our neighbor to the North has experienced a similar increase. 10-Year Government Bond Yield Change Since US Low Notably, global government bond yields hit their low during the pandemic and have trended higher since then. Global Yields If one looks at government yields since the end of last year, a different picture emerges. While higher government bond yields have been a global phenomenon, the US has seen slightly lower yields! 10-Year Government Bond Year-To-Date Yield Change The other proof point for those arguing for the danger of US fiscal policy or the end of American exceptionalism is the recent weakness in the US currency relative to other currencies. While there is no doubt that the US dollar has been weaker year-to-date, it follows a period of exceptional relative strength. The US dollar remains stronger than it has been most of the time since 1999. Further, as shown in the historical data, periods of a weaker US dollar do not uniformly lead to higher US Treasury bond yields. US Dollar Without exception, the fiscal position of large countries, as measured by government debt relative to GDP, deteriorated with the impact of spending during the pandemic. Most countries were already piling on more debt relative to economic activity, but the pandemic accelerated the trend. Government Debt-To-GDP There is no magic level of debt-to-GDP that signals disaster since countries with a more resilient economy can service more debt. Furthermore, countries like the US, which has a high per capita GDP, control of the global reserve currency, and only issues debt in that currency, can handle significantly more debt levels than most other countries. German government debt levels are understated relative to reality. While Germany isn't legally liable for the debts of its profligately spending neighbors, it shares a common currency and its share of European Union (EU) issued debt. Historically, Germany has been forced to contribute the most to bailout funds when other EU countries have encountered problems. Recent Government Debt-To-GDP Ratios The US House of Representatives passed its tax legislation, which, despite reports to the contrary, does not make the US fiscal situation any worse, according to Strategas. Tariffs should produce about $200 billion in revenue annually and are not included in the legislation's official scoring, leading to much confusion. The US Senate will almost certainly make some changes, so the House bill is unlikely to be the final version implemented. The S&P 500 sits only 5.6% below its mid-February high in a robust rebound from the 19% decline from the peak reached on April 8. The Magnificent 7, consisting of Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), has fared worse, and the group is 12% below its mid-December summit. Market Returns The proximate cause of the decline in stocks last week was the reheating of the tariff war, which increased the headwinds for the US and global economy. President Trump threatened the European Union with a 50% tariff and smartphone makers, notably Apple (AAPL), with a 25% tariff rate. The betting odds of recession rose to 41%, sending stocks 2.6% lower last week. Betting Odds of 2025 US Recession Despite the likely economic drag from the tariffs, only two expected rate cuts for 2025 are expected. There is little chance of a rate cut at the mid-June Federal Reserve meeting. Number Of Fed Rate Cuts Expected The primary focus will likely remain on the fallout from the tariffs, with markets watching for any changes in US policy and retaliation or concessions from other countries. Friday's April inflation reading will likely be friendly. The Core PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation and should moderate to 2.5% year-over-year from the 2.6% pace in March. The last Magnificent 7 stock to report earnings is Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday after the close. As the leader in artificial intelligence chips, its results and forecasts will be closely watched to judge the health of technology spending. The rise in US Treasury yields does not point to a US-specific problem; instead, it is a function of the lower probability of an economic downturn and perhaps a shift in the global appetite for government bonds. Yields are not high enough yet to significantly negatively impact stock valuation since the higher yields are accompanied by less risk of an earnings decline from a recession. Like many other countries, the current fiscal trajectory in the US is unsustainable, but the recent tax bill wouldn't worsen things. Investors can be forgiven for wishing it improved the path, but the Senate will have their say next, and bond market participants will be watching closely. Government bond investors are demanding higher yields from most countries, so there might be a shift in the willingness of markets to fund large deficits, but it is too early to know for sure.
