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Mada
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Mada
How Iran may have found a new deterrence mechanism in its war with Israel
Over the course of two years of regional war, Al Jazeera's Doha studio has been the epicenter of television coverage on the turbulent events that have touched nearly every country. Anchors from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, the West Bank and Turkey broadcast world-historic events to the quiet of Qatar, where those events were then rebroadcast to hundreds of thousands across the region who tuned to Al Jazeera from homes, markets and coffee shops to stay abreast of the turmoil. But on Monday night, Al Jazeera itself became the latest news of the war. Its studio in Doha shook as American missile defense systems exploded Iranian rockets over the skies of Qatar: blasts of light and thundering force seen and felt below. The missiles had been fired toward Al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the Qatar Emiri Air Force, United States Air Force, United Kingdom Royal Air Force and serves as the forward headquarters of US Central Command in the region. The Iranian barrage quickly became understood as a symbolic response to the US bombing of three of Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday. The Iranians had given the Qataris and the Americans prior warning and the base was evacuated. No casualties were reported. But even with the symbolism, it was clear that war had come to the Gulf on Monday night. Iran turned away from Israel and fired at a neighbor. If they could do it once, they could do it again without the courtesy. In the 12 days since the war between Iran and Israel broke out, sources in the Gulf and Iran as well as researchers focused on the region have underlined to Mada Masr the potential for the conflict to spill over into Gulf states. 'If Iran fails to harm military targets and other well-protected sites inside Israel, it may resort to directing its missiles at more vulnerable targets in the Gulf region, especially countries that Iran believes have aided and supported its enemies over the years,' an Iranian diplomat in Turkey told Mada Masr last week. This sat beside repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the connecting point between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which 21 percent of global maritime oil trade and 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas passed in 2023. Most of that oil and gas originates from Gulf states and provides them with their sizable financial power. But just as quickly as tension seemed to be escalating, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and confirmed that they had agreed to the ceasefire. Adherence so far has been an issue, as reports of continued escalation emerged on Tuesday. Trump waded in with an all caps, shrill post on Tuesday morning to try to prevent the fewer than 12 hours of peace from falling apart: 'ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.' Whether Trump is able to rein in Israel or not, the war has laid bare certain realities of Iran's position in the new regional order that Israel and the US have worked to construct since 2023. And at the center of Iran's survival may very well be a redefined relationship with Gulf states that make up the Abraham wing of the 'New Middle East.' When Israel launched its attack on Iran, it was attacking a new enemy. Over the last two years, Israel has systematically dismantled what once was Iran's deterrence strategy. Iran once boasted a complex web of allies spread out across the region. It had seized opportunities to back conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, with the aim of furthering the ends of those local actors but also to bring them into a complex patronage network collectively known as the axis of resistance. This axis has branded itself as a bulwark against Western imperialism, and, specifically, the spear of that imperial project: Israel. Of course, each of these groups has their own interests and cannot be reduced to the simplistic framing of 'Iranian proxies.' In the last twenty years, fissures in this network and grating pragmatic decisions have damaged the robust comradery of the best days. Hezbollah's support of the Syrian regime alienated it from its wider base and caused issues between Hamas and Tehran. And as Hezbollah faced mounting Israeli aggression in 2023, Iran's intervention was limited. But the deterrence system was meant to address a simple fact: Israel, with a steady supply of US weapons, maintained military supremacy not just over Iran, but after the 1973 war and subsequent pacification of the Egyptian military, over any other military in the region. But since 2023, Israel and circumstance have come together to dismantle this resistance framework. Hamas and Gaza as a whole have been decimated by Israel's genocidal war. Even if the militant group maintains operational power in areas throughout the strip, its ability to force Israel to absorb military attention on the homefront has been greatly diminished. In Lebanon, Israel launched a war at the close of last year and conducted a series of targeted assassinations that left all of Hezbollah's senior leadership dead, including Hassan Nasrallah. A short while after a ceasefire was declared in Lebanon, Turkey sensed an opening to extract territorial gains it had been angling for in northern Syria and gave the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group the greenlight to move into Aleppo. What followed was a stunning crumbling of the Assad regime 's forces and the installation of Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim leader of the country. Hezbollah, decimated as it is, has stated it will not engage Israel again and Sharaa has largely adopted a pacifying role toward Israel, even as Tel Aviv bombs the extent of Syria. The last potential deterrent left for Iran, then, has been its goal all along: a nuclear bomb. Speaking to Mada Masr last year, an Iranian diplomat explained that Iran is eager to export its conflict with Israel to other players in the region so they 'bear the brunt of the military, logistical and human' costs, rather than having to shoulder them itself. This outsourcing of its direct conflict with Israel buys Iran more time to advance its drone, ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Iran 'invests in tactical frameworks through international maneuvers and leveraging the global climate to pressure its adversaries to the greatest extent in the stalled negotiations, aiming to realize Iran's aspiration for a nuclear bomb as a true deterrent weapon to prevent any aggression on its territories,' the source added. But according to all accounts, Iran did not have a nuclear weapon yet at the time, despite Israel repeatedly saying it was 'close.' Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action brokered by the administration of former US President Barack Obama, Iran had reduced its stocks of enriched uranium. When Trump pulled out of the deal, Iran began to ramp up the program again. During an unannounced inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2023, officials found that particles of uranium at Fordow had been purified to near weapons-grade purity. But just before the outbreak of the war, Iran was locked in diplomatic talks over reimposing limits on potential nuclear breakout. Thus, with no bomb, no deterrence and the diplomacy track scuttled, Iran had to face Israel's attacks alone. And it was also facing an emboldened Israel set on actualizing what The Economist proudly dubbed 'The New Middle East' last week. Arguing that the ground had shifted under Iran's feet, Economist editor Karl Vick defined the new regional order as one in which all countries make 'common cause with the Jewish state.' Put differently, however, a former Egyptian diplomat working on military affairs defines the new regional order as one in which Tel Aviv is trying to monopolize military might. 'Netanyahu doesn't want anyone in the region that would be close to posing any threat now and for the next 50-80 years. When you look at it from a military point of view, he is incapacitating all military powers,' the former diplomat says. A researcher focused on US policy toward the Middle East explains the regional shift in similarly increasingly polarizing terms. Before 2011, the researcher argues, the region was multipolar, with political and economic power spread out between Turkey, Iran, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The collapse of Egypt's power due to internal affairs after the 2011 revolution and Saudi Arabia's failure to convert economic power into political power, instead subjecting itself to US supremacy in exchange for protection, saw the Arab component of the balance fall away, the researcher argues. This left Israel increasingly free to weaken the remaining poles in the old regional order. But it also opened a new point of leverage for Iran: America's commitment to be the security guarantor of the entire region. 'The Gulf is in a state of anxiety, no matter how much the Gulf media in some countries tries to hide it,' a source in Kuwait's Parliament told Mada Masr after the US struck Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran stated that the move expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces. Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative Elham Fakhro, author of the book The Abraham Accords, explains this fear, saying, 'In reality, the Gulf states see a great danger in this war, and their biggest fear is that Iran will target US bases in Gulf states, or commercial ships and vessels, because it has done that in the past.' 'In 2019, after President Trump withdrew from the deal with Iran,' she notes. 'Iran targeted the Gulf states and ships in the Persian Gulf. They are afraid that the same thing will happen, or perhaps even more so, because the situation is more tense than it was in 2019.' But if they were to be attacked, couldn't the Gulf states respond to Iran in kind? For the researcher, the security framework that governs the Gulf fundamentally changed in 2016. 'The United States of America, under the Obama administration, asked Saudi Arabia to be a partner in security. Saudi Arabia rejected the idea and wanted to be protected under the US security umbrella. So they were not interested in being this partner, taking the lead.' the researcher says, adding that the Saudis did not see this protection as an insult, emphasizing that 'they wanted to make this happen.' Fakhro points to much of the same dependence. 'If Iran targets US bases in Gulf states, I expect the reaction to come from the US,' she says. 'I don't expect the Gulf states to enter the war. I think they're making an effort to avoid getting involved and show that they're neutral and not siding with Israel, even though US bases are located in most Gulf states.' This dependence was only further underscored by Trump's lavish trip to Saudi Arabia last month, in which he inked a mega defense pack, says the researcher. 'Last month Trump went to the Middle East, visited Gulf countries and got a lot of money from them. After the attack from Iran, they will definitely ask the US to handle the situation politically, through diplomacy, or, if it's willing to go to war, okay, protect us. You already got paid for this. We want the American security umbrella to work,' the researcher adds. Ultimately, however, Trump was not willing to spend money to join a war in which he would have to protect all Gulf countries from Iran, the researcher argues. 'I believe this is one of the most important aspects that's helped to reach a ceasefire,' he says. Equally important was Iran's threats to close the strait. While approximately 83 percent of the oil transported through the strait passes to Asia — with Asian markets accounting for approximately 69 percent of total oil exports moving through in 2023 — the supply of oil is vital for energy prices globally. If China, the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil, sees a dip in its supply, it will have to look elsewhere. At the end of May, before the outbreak of the war, crude oil was selling for about US$60 per barrel. But as the war started and Iran began to threaten to close the strait, prices began to rise, as did fears in Gulf capitals. An administrative source from the Saudi Energy Ministry told Mada Masr last week that he expects energy prices to continue rising in light of Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which he considers a hostile act directed at Gulf states and consumer countries that will negatively impact an already-struggling global economy. The energy sector will be the most negatively impacted, especially if the ability of oil-producing countries to export is affected, or if production is disrupted, the source noted. Similarly, an Emirati Energy Ministry source told Mada Masr that while rising oil prices are good for the United Arab Emirates's trade balance, if the war is prolonged, there are concerns of a loss of supplies from the Persian Gulf region, especially the strait, which would lead to a dramatic rise in global oil prices. Adam Hanieh, the author of Crude Capitalism, always saw the closure of the strait as an unlikely outcome, considering it would be a huge escalation given the fact that one-third of the world's seaborne oil flows through the waterway. 'It would have a major impact on oil prices and also affect Iran's own oil exports, so I think any step in that direction would be relatively short-lived,' he tells Mada Masr. If unlikely, there is a violent precedent for closing the strait. Iran attempted to close Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), known at the time as the 'Tanker War.' Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein attempted to invade Iranian territories with US support, including arms and intelligence. Iraq turned the Gulf into an arena for naval engagement, targeting Iranian commercial vessels. Tehran then decided to close the Persian Gulf to ships carrying Iraqi oil regardless of their nationality. This meant targeting Saudi and Kuwaiti tankers, which Iran accused of aiding Iraq in the war. Iranian forces resorted to secretly planting sea mines and using missile attacks. The Tanker War caused billions of dollars in losses, in addition to sinking approximately 223 oil tankers of various nationalities, damaging and sinking approximately 540 commercial tankers and killing approximately 430 sailors, according to a previous report by Al Jazeera. When Iran decided to bomb the airbase in Qatar on Monday night, oil markets let out a collective sigh of relief that Hormuz would stay open, with oil prices falling by 7 percent on Tuesday morning. Now, while the current ceasefire has held despite bumps over the last two days, Iran can say it has found something of a patchwork deterrence mechanism. But that means the question of its nuclear program as a more stable means to defend the regime and rebalance regional order is back in the spotlight. Though the US and Israel have trumpeted that Iran's nuclear program had been 'completely and totally obliterated' by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, quietly the situation is much murkier. While damage at the Fordow nuclear site is still unclear, a preliminary US intelligence report leaked to the press on Tuesday night suggested that the 12-day war had only set Iran's nuclear program back by two months. The biggest issue, however, is that Iran had moved equipment and about 400 kg of uranium from the site in recent weeks. This was acknowledged by US Vice President JD Vance. 'We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about,' Vance told the media, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. How willing Iran will be to hold good faith talks with the US at this point is an open question, however. 'If I try to put myself in Iran's shoes, just coming out of this current war, but also, for instance, comparing the fate of Qadhafi with North Korea, it might encourage them to actually fast forward their nuclear program. That would not necessarily be an irrational assessment,' a Western diplomat formerly based in Iran says. 'The other scenario is to fully go for a diplomatic solution, but there is a big trust issue from 2018, when there was a deal and Iran was, by all [International Atomic Energy Agency] reports, compliant with the deal and the US pulled out. And on top of that, last week, they were negotiating with the US, and then they were attacked first by Israel and then by the US itself. There is a massive trust issue to overcome,' the diplomat continues. 'It's difficult to see, keeping Iran's longer history also in mind, there really is a sense in the country that they've been invaded by Russia. They've been invaded by the UK. I think the 1953 coup against [former Iranian Prime Minister Mohamed] Mosaddegh is still present in the minds of people in politics. And then on top of that, those recent breaches of trust. I don't think they put this aside lightly.'
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What to know about the US's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar after Iran's attack
Iran has responded to the United States' direct involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict by targeting its military assets in the Middle East. On Monday, Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced that bases used by US forces 'in the region or elsewhere' could be attacked in retaliation for US attacks on Iran's underground nuclear sites the previous day. Later that evening, explosions were heard over Qatar's capital, Doha, as Iran attacked Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the Middle East. Here's everything you need to know about Al Udeid: Gas-rich Qatar, which lies 190km (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, is home to the US's largest military base in the region, Al Udeid. The 24-hectare (60-acre) base, in the desert outside the capital Doha, was set up in 1996 and is the forward headquarters for US Central Command, which directs US military operations in a huge swathe of territory stretching from Egypt in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. It houses the Qatar Emiri Air Force, the US Air Force, the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force, and other foreign forces. It houses around 10,000 troops. Earlier this year, The Hill, a Washington, DC-based newspaper, reported that Al Udeid's 'long, well-maintained runways enable rapid deployment, making it a critical component of US force projection'. The Hill also reported that Qatar's investment in Al Udeid has kept it 'at the forefront of military readiness while saving US taxpayers billions of dollars'. Over the years, it said, Qatar had spent more than $8bn upgrading infrastructure. The base has played a central role in air campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in humanitarian missions, including the 2021 evacuation of Kabul. On Monday, Qatar's Foreign Ministry announced it had temporarily closed its airspace amid threats of Iranian retaliation. 'The competent authorities announce the temporary suspension of air traffic in the country's airspace, as part of a set of precautionary measures taken based on developments in the region,' the ministry said. The closure came several hours after the US and UK embassies urged their citizens in Qatar to shelter in place out of what it said was 'an abundance of caution'. Later, news agency Reuters cited a Western diplomat as saying there had been a credible Iranian threat against Al Udeid since noon on Monday. That evening, Qatar's Defence Minister, cited by Al Jazeera, said the country's air defences had intercepted missiles directed at Al Udeid. Before targeting Iran's nuclear sites, it appears that the US started taking precautionary measures. As US President Donald Trump mulled direct involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, news agency AFP reported that dozens of US military aircraft were no longer on the tarmac at the air base, basing its assessment on satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC. Nearly 40 military aircraft – including transport planes like the Hercules C-130 and reconnaissance aircraft – were parked on the tarmac at the base, the regional headquarters of the Pentagon's Central Command, on June 5. But in an image taken on June 19, only three aircraft were visible. One US official who spoke to Reuters said aircraft that were not in hardened shelters had been moved from Al Udeid base. Additionally, he said US Navy vessels had been moved from a port in Bahrain, where the US military's 5th fleet is located. 'It is not an uncommon practice,' the official said. 'Force protection is the priority.' No. Prior to the US attack on nuclear sites on Sunday, it was reported that B-2 bombers were heading to Guam – a ruse, as it turned out. As all eyes looked West, seven B-2 stealth bombers took off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri in the US at 00:01 EDT (04:01 GMT), according to the Pentagon. The top-secret flights flew straight over the Atlantic to Iran. None of the US bases in the Middle East were deployed in the US offensive on Iran. Qatar condemned the attack on the air base, calling it a 'flagrant violation' of its sovereignty. 'We express the State of Qatar's strong condemnation of the attack on Al Udeid Air Base by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and consider it a flagrant violation of the State of Qatar's sovereignty and airspace, as well as of international law,' Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said in a statement. Iran and Qatar enjoy fraternal diplomatic relations. Qatar has condemned the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites.
Time of India
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Trump's Qatar trip is off to a flying start as Air Force One gets another fighter jet escort
Qatar Emiri Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One (AP) DOHA: President Donald Trump's trip to Qatar is off to a flying start. Like Saudi Arabia a day earlier, Qatar didn't bother waiting for Trump to land before setting out to impress him with a fighter jet escort . As Trump flew in to Riyadh on Tuesday and then in to Doha on Wednesday as part of his Middle East trip , he received ceremonial escorts from each country's F-15 fighter jets, exceptionally rare sights. A White House official, Margo Martin, posted videos of the escorts online. "Saudi F-15's providing honorary escort for Air Force One !" she wrote on Tuesday. The Royal Saudi Air Force has the world's largest fleet of American-made F-15s after the US Air Force. Then on Wednesday, Martin posted: "what a view flying into Qatar!!!" She even captured one of the Qatari aviators, sitting in the F-15's backseat, returning the favor by taking a picture of Air Force One. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Discover the best investment opportunity. سالك Learn More Undo The fighter jets aren't the only planes Qatar has used to impress Trump, offering to gift him a luxury Boeing 747-8 that the US could use as Air Force One while new versions of the plane are under construction by Boeing. Trump has defended the idea as a fiscally smart move for the United States. But his critics have questioned what would amount to a president accepting an astonishingly valuable gift from a foreign government, calling it "naked corruption" and "a grave national security threat." The Republican president is on a three-nation Middle East trip and visits the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.
